Hookem's Big Play for June 3rd

HookEmHorns · Jun 3, 2011

Overall Record: 11-5

Big Play Tracking:
April 25: DBacks +130 (W)
April 26: Orioles +118 (W)
April 28: Yankees -1 [even] (W)
April 29: Tigers -110 (L)
May 5: Brewers +122 (L)
May 8: Marlins -160 (W)
May 8: Dodgers -120 (W)
May 14: DBacks +120 (W)
May 17: Yanks TT over -120 (W)
May 21: Tigers -125 (L)
May 22: Tigers -110 (W)
May 22: Athletics +105 (L)
May 25: Padres +105 (W)
May 26: Royals +130 (L)
May 29: Yankees -159 (W)
June 2: Twins +110 (W)

Today's big play:

* Boston Red Sox -1 (-145)

Hookem

finite · Jun 3, 2011

Your losses have been on dogs and low chalk. You have no losses on high chalk. What is it you see that makes you like this?

nojuice9 · Jun 3, 2011

why wouldn't you play it?

ochustla · Jun 3, 2011

I don't understand the play. Is it BOS - 1 1/2 runs? The ML is -205 at my book. I can't figure out what the play is..

finite · Jun 3, 2011

I believe he is laying 1 run to reduce the juice.

HookEmHorns · Jun 3, 2011

finite said:
Your losses have been on dogs and low chalk. You have no losses on high chalk. What is it you see that makes you like this?

I try to keep these plays at low chalk or dogs. Every once in awhile I'll have a play on a team with higher chalk, but I try to stay away. That's why I'm playing the -1 line tonight.

Not much time for a write up but here are some main reasons why:

- Clay Buchholz has been pretty solid all season with the exception of his first start against the Yankees.

- Back on April 20th, Buchholz held Oakland to just one run in 5.1 innings pitched.

- Oakland's offense is not exactly stacked. They are averaging just a little over 3 runs a game for the past 10 games.

- Josh Outman has only had two starts this season, but both were quality starts. He may run into trouble tonight as Boston has hit lefties exceptionally well this year.

- If the Red Sox can get to Outman early and force Oak to the pen, then it will be trouble. Grant Balfour is out. He is arguably the best pitcher they have in the pen, which means the bullpen will be lacking. You can't trust Fuentes as he is a complete bum.

- Aside from that series against the White Sox, Boston has been playing really good ball lately. For some reason the White Sox have owned the Red Sox recently.

- Home advantage for Bos and Oak has to travel clear across the country - not a good road team anyway.

nojuice9 · Jun 3, 2011

laying a run.

home field.
better pitcher.
better offense. (by far.)
better team.

HookEmHorns · Jun 3, 2011

ochustla said:
I don't understand the play. Is it BOS - 1 1/2 runs? The ML is -205 at my book. I can't figure out what the play is..

Some books like 5dimes have a -1 line. If your book doesn't, then take both Boston ML -190 and RL -1.5 (+105). Bet half on the ML and half on the RL to make a -1 line.

BTW, these are the lines I got early. They may have moved by now