2 Sunday w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.


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Pittsburgh +171 over PHILADELPHIA
Roy Halladay is one of the best and needs absolutely no introduction here. We all know what he’s capable of. This season is as good as all the others. He’s 7-3 with a 2.56 ERA and has 91 k’s and 13 walks in 91 innings. It’s typical Halladay year after year after year. When General Manager Neal Huntington acquired James McDonald at the 2010 trade deadline for Octavio Dotel, few batted an eyelash until McDonald delivered a 3.52 ERA over 11 starts for the Pirates to close out the 2010 season. While the 2011 season got off to a rough start for McDonald, things look like they may be turning around. With an ERA nearing 8.00 in the month of April, McDonald's position in the Pirates starting rotation was precarious as he walked more batters than he struck out and was giving up too many jacks. That ERA and xERA is tough to stomach until you see what McDonald has done in May. Having allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, McDonald's ERA is 2.43 since April 24.Don't let that WHIP fool you. The month of May is a better indicator for what McDonald can deliver in the WHIP (1.29) department than his April WHIP implosion. McDonald almost doubled his strikeout rate in the month of May striking out over a batter an inning. MacDonald is flying under the radar and offers up tremendous value, even against Halladay. And how about PNC Park? The place was jammed to the rafters yesterday and the joint was electric. This city hasn’t seen baseball atmosphere here like that since “We are Family”. The whole team is focused, excited and can’t wait to get to the park. This is nothing new for the Phillies and they always have trouble at this joint. Furthermore, they’re just not playing well. Philly is not hitting, they’re not scoring and it also appears as though Jimmy Rollins will miss a few games. PNC Park is sold out again and the Pirates absolutely have a great chance for the sweep. Play: Philadelphia +171 (Risking 2 units).

Toronto +129 over BALTIMORE
You have to be pretty good to stay in the rotation when you’ve had one win in 28 consecutive starts and that’s precisely the situation with Jo-Jo Reyes. The weight of the world is off Reyes’ shoulders now that he won his last start. He threw a complete game against the Tribe and allowed one run to lower his ERA to 4.15. Over his last three starts his ERA is 2.84 and he’ll face an Orioles team that been dominated by southpaws all season. Baltimore has just two wins over its last eight games and regardless of the outcome here, we’re going with the best of it with the Blue Jays. Adam Lind was leading the league in RBI’s before he was injured and he’s back batting fifth. The Jays bats cooled off a bit yesterday but it’s highly doubtful that Jeremy Guthrie will keep them cool. At 32, there are no favorable signs for Guthrie. He’s a soft-tosser with an ugly groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 33%/23%/44%. His strand rate of 77% has helped keep his ERA respectable but don’t buy it. Other than pinpoint control, Guthrie offers up nothing and neither do the O's except a great play against taking back a tag. End of story. Play: Toronto +129 (Risking 2 units).
 

SSI

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definately like the toronto pick sherwood... i assume your a Value player, who plays 2% of bankroll on each play...

always enjoy reading your writeups and comparing our plays... as i play 2 units on each selection... i however do no handicapping and play from a computer program...

good luck today and this season


Falcon
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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Completely concur with both the selections and the underlying analysis, though I myself am pinching a bit by using PIT +1.5 (even)

Let's get 'em
 

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Always appreciated your analysis Sherwood..but can't see Pirates winning this one. Phillies will score +4 runs in this one because McDonald is not like Morton or Karstens.
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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hey there Sawyer....you still overseas in Med Sea region?
 

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before judging J-Mac keep in mind he missed most of spring with an injury, so April was, in essence, his spring training. He has been solid over his last handful of starts and keeps showing improvements. To say he is not the caliber of Morton may be correct, but Karstens? He's a better pitcher than Karstens. That's why he won a spot on the starting staff and Karstens was a reliever until Ohlendorf's injury made him a starter.
Always appreciated your analysis Sherwood..but can't see Pirates winning this one. Phillies will score +4 runs in this one because McDonald is not like Morton or Karstens.
 

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