Enfuego One Play a Day Baseball

Enfuego · Jun 5, 2011

Here’s a little insight about my baseball capping. Only make one play a day and let it ride. Pick a game you feel good about and leave it at that. I love to look at the pitchers and the streaks. Think good pitching against shitty hitting always provides the advantage. Can’t tell you how many times I’ve been frustrated at a good pitcher dominate a team I’m on because my team sucks at the plate and it’s frustrating as hell. Think I posted my one play a day last year here and was around 60% but I can’t remember. And before the boo birds come in and try to chop me down, no, I don’t bet on these games nor do I watch them because I’m in Afghanistan and can’t watch them. Good luck gents.

Oakland Athletics (27-32) at Boston Red Sox (32-26)
Like this game for a number of reasons with one being the good price. So, look at that and say “something isn’t right is it?” Of course the price is usually dictated by the starting pitching and with (RHP) John Lackey (2-5 8.01 ERA) making his first start since May 11 I think that’s what you have here.

That said, Boston is just the better team all around. Oakland comes in having lost five straight games and quite frankly it’s because they’re just shitty. They are fifth from last in batting average at .242 and dead last in HRs with just 32 on the year and it won’t get any easier as Lackey has beaten the A’s more than any other team he’s faced going 17-6 throughout his career against them with a 2.86 ERA.

Throwing for the A’s today is (LHP) Brett Anderson (3-5 3.68 ERA). I’ll admit, Anderson has been tough against the Red Sox going 4-0 with a 1.97 ERA lifetime against the Red Sox including 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA at Fenway. Anderson has been shaky lately going just 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA in his last three outings.

Boston has taken three of four this year against the A’s with that one loss being Brett Anderson beating Lackey 5-0 on April 19. Oakland looks to avoid their second 6 game losing streak.

Game is easy for me. Good team vs. bad team. Good team having won two straight at home against bad team having lost six straight with only 2-3 regulars hitting over .250.

RED SOX -125
Key Stats:
· OAK are 2-8 in their last 10 road games.
· OAK are 8-2 in their last 10 Sun. games.
· BOS are 8-1 in their last 9 Sun. games.
· BOS are 18-6 in their last 24 games on grass.
· BOS are 15-6 in their last 21 overall.
· OAK are 11-28 in the last 39 meetings in Boston.

barman · Jun 5, 2011

okay....a true sports "forecast" thread is one where guys like you and me can actually sit together at the same cyber pub without anyone wanting to throw either (or both) of us out of the joint.

Feedback:

*Good to see you make an effort to establish a posting rhythm, even one game per day - as I think any consistent contributor brings value to the forum whether "winning" or "losing".

*I also like to set up one game "rides" wherein I designate a single selection as the Key and if it wins, see if I can roll it over into four or maybe five days. Essentially becomes an extended version of a 4teamer or 5teamer. Low initial risk of one "unit" on first game extends until I lose or want to cash a three to five day run.

Best to us all for a great Sunday and week ahead

Enfuego · Jun 5, 2011

I might throw out two if I like them but I really look at Covers and check the matchups and if I see something I like then that's the only play. Bad thing for me is I haven't seen a single pitch all year. I want to see how good my baseball capping can be looking strictly at the numbers on the page. I might be bad/good. We'll see I guess.

Enfuego · Jun 6, 2011

Seattle Mariners (31-28) at Chicago White Sox (28-33)

Not many games out there tonight but I think I found a play in this one in Chicago tonight. The Mariners come into this game playing what might be the best baseball the majors. They just took their sixth straight series after they blew a 5-3 lead and came from behind to win the game 9-6 Sunday. The M’s luck in Chicago however is not that great. They come into this matchup having lost eight straight and 12 of 13.

M’s rookie of the year candidate RHP Michael Pineda (6-2 2.30 ERA) takes the hill tonight and all he’s done is amaze opposing batters. All he’s done lately is pitch 7 innings allowing one run or fewer in three of his last four. He’s also been great on the road where opponents are hitting just .193 against him.

Pineda is opposed by White Sox LHP John Danks (0-8 5.25 ERA). Danks has just been awful giving up nine runs and nine hits over four innings during his last outing against Toronto with the Chisox losing 13-4. What he does have going against him is he is 4-0 with a 1.13 ERA against the M’s since the 2009 All Star Break.

Look, the M’s are a terrible hitting team with their average being last in baseball. Sure they are winning but let’s not kid ourselves here…they can’t hit the baseball. Danks has been good against them and will shut them down again. Although a rookie, Pineda has been rock solid all year long. The guy pounds the zone and on the road he’s been a showstopper.

M’S/WHITESOX UNDER 8

Key Stats:
· Danks is 4-0 since the 2009 All Star Break against the M’s with a 1.13 ERA
· Pineda is holding hitters to a .193 average on the road this year

CWS vs. Seattle this year
· 5-2
· 6-0
· 3-2

2011 Baseball Season: 1-0-0 +100

gynecologist · Jun 6, 2011

GL enfuego.. How is it over there?

Joe8877 · Jun 6, 2011

LOVE that under...BOL En Fuego

varkeyboy · Jun 6, 2011

Love the play! I'm in.

Enfuego · Jun 6, 2011

gynecologist said:
GL enfuego.. How is it over there?

It sucks man but only 9 months left. Gotta get home.

gynecologist · Jun 7, 2011

EZ no sweat never in doubt win..

under again tomorrow?

Enfuego · Jun 7, 2011

Seattle Mariners (31-29) at Chicago White Sox (29-33)

Sorry to be simple guys but if something looks good I think you just have to go with it. I really like the under as the play in the game at Cellular again tonight.

Again, the M’s are the worst hitting team in baseball. I shouldn’t have to repeat that too many times. They flat out can’t hit the ball. They faced RHP Phillip Humber (4-3 3.06 ERA) in Seattle back in early May and he dominated going 7 innings but still lost to the Mariners 3-2. The M’s are hitting just .221 on the year against RHP. In his last five starts, Humber is 2-0 with a 3.06 ERA. He is 1-0 with a 2.82 ERA over his last three outings.

The M’s throw out RHP and Cy Young Winner Felix Hernandez (6-4 3.04 ERA). You know exactly what you’ll get with Hernandez and he was on the winning side of that 3-2 victory by the Mariners in May. The M’s have won one game in 14 tries in Chicago and that one win came with Hernandez on the hill as he gave up four hits over eight solid innings. Over his last three starts, Hernandez is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA. In his last start, he gave up a run and struck out 11.

Simply put, both teams are not that good and can’t hit and are both facing good solid pitchers. I think solid pitching vs. bad hitting equals an under in this game. Even if the game loses, I feel confident the “under” is the play in this game.

M’S/WHITESOX UNDER 7.5

Key Stats:
· Seattle hits .221 against RHP
· Three games this year between the two clubs have gone “under” and one “pushed”
· In his last four wins against the Sox, Hernandez has allowed just four total runs

varkeyboy · Jun 7, 2011

AGAIN, huh? I like it! Thanks for yesterday...

Enfuego · Jun 8, 2011

NY Mets (29-31) at Milwaukee Brewers (34-27)

Think I’m going to finally jump to the National League for the first time in four games. Realize the Mets won 2-1 last night but also realize the Mets are not a good team and the Brew Crew took five of seven from them last year. Realize the Mets are going for their fourth straight win but also realize the Brewers are attempting to win their fifth in six and sixth of eight games. They are hot as well.

LHP Randy Wolf (4-4 3.69 ERA) gets the call for the crew tonight and has been very good against the Mets going 6-0 with a 3.27 ERA in 11 starts since 2005. He’s also only given up two runs in each of his last four starts against the Mets. Wolf is 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA in his last three outings.

Facing Wolf is RHP Michael Pelfrey (3-4 5.56 ERA). Pelfrey is horrible on the road with a 1-4 8.58 ERA record and 0-1 with a 5.26 ERA in his last four starts. He is just 0-1 with a horrible 6.75 ERA in his last three starts.

Juice is high on this game but I think it’s a good bet. Good team vs. a shitty team. You have a pitcher that hasn’t lost to a team since 2005 against a pitcher with a +8 ERA on the road. I think it’s a no brainer.

2011 MLB Record: 3-0-0 +300

BREW CREW -165

Key Stats:
· New York hits just .228 against LHP
· In their last 10 games, Milwaukee is hitting .263 against RHP
· Milwaukee is 8-0 in their last 8 games following a loss
· Milwaukee is 21-7 in their last 28 home games

Enfuego · Jun 9, 2011

St Louis Cardinals (37-26) at Houston Astros (24-38)

Started off real nice this year at the RX posting a 4-0 record but in this business that can all change over a course of a few days. Nice though to get off to a good start. Going to stick with the National League tonight and go with the Central leading Cardinals for a number of reasons. You’ll see a trend with me that I shop for a good line on a good team against a bad team. Playing the good team gives you an immediate advantage so if the price is good…why not?

St Louis comes into this game 19-14 on the road while last place Houston is just 12-18 at home. The Cards have won four of their last five and have taken five of seven from Houston this year. Houston, on the other hand has lost four of their last five and basically just stink.

RHP Rookie Lance Lynn gets his second start for the Cards. The guy is 0-1 with an 8.44 ERA. During his first start, he worked on three days’ rest and although he retired the first 10 that he faced, he gave up five runs in 5 1/3 innings. Not going to hold that lofty ERA against him with only one start under his belt.

LHP J.A. Happ (3-7 4.65 ERA) gets the pill for the Astros. I’m a fan of Happ but the Astros just can’t score runs when he pitches. Since May 14, he’s 0-3 including a 4-2 loss to the Cards on May 19. He also lost 6-5 in April to the Cards as well.

2011 MLB Record: 4-0-0 +400

Cards -116

Key Stats:
· St Louis is 7-3 in their last 10 road games
· Houston is just 3-14 during Happ’s last 17 starts

varkeyboy · Jun 9, 2011

Brewers CASH! Had them in a parlay w/ the Rangers =) Thank you.

Let's go CARDINALS!!!

Enfuego · Jun 9, 2011

varkeyboy said:
Brewers CASH! Had them in a parlay w/ the Rangers =) Thank you.

Let's go CARDINALS!!!

You're welcome dude.

gynecologist · Jun 9, 2011

GL man.. I like the over in that one.

Enfuego · Jun 10, 2011

Cleveland Indians (34-26) at NYY (33-27)

Got another easy victory last night pushing us to 5-0 so far this year. Love the one play a day. You either win or you lose with zero pressure.

Yes the Yankees were swept at home by the Red Sox and yes the Indians lead the AL Central but we all know the Yankees will be playing for the AL East crown come the end of the year. They lead the majors in HRs, are tied for 1st in slugging percentage and are 5th in runs scored. By the way, they also pitch pretty well ranking 12th in the majors in ERA percentage.

They also absolutely dominate the Indians especially at home. They have won 10 of 13 against the Tribe and have hit .304 during that time averaging 6.8 runs per game. They also dominate Cleveland starter RHP Fausto Carmona (3-7 5.33 ERA). Carmona is a putrid 1-4 with a 6.87 ERA in his last seven starts against the Yanks and has a 10.66 ERA in his last three starts against the Yanks.

The Yankees give the ball to RHP Ivan Nova (4-4 4.50 ERA). Nova is 0-1 with a 4.96 ERA during his last three starts but the Yankees have only given him six runs to work with during those starts. During his last start against Los Angeles, he gave up two earned runs and lost 3-2.

Look for the Yankees to get well tonight against the Indians who have lost 7 of 10 games. Go with the better team to rip Carmona.

2011 MLB Record: 5-0-0 +500

NYY -153

Key Stats:
· Cleveland starter Fausto Carmona is 0-4 with a 7.84 ERA during his last four starts
· Cleveland is 9-25 during their last 34 games in NY
· During the 2010 season, the NYY beat Carmona 8-0 and 8-2

varkeyboy · Jun 10, 2011

Awesome, I'm IN once again! Thanks for the Cards last night...they crushed the pathetic Astros. Lot of juice w/ the Yanks, but i like the ML and RL in this one!

Bruins4Life · Jun 11, 2011

6-0. Nice.

Enfuego · Jun 11, 2011

Tampa Bay (33-30) at Baltimore Orioles (30-31)

Another easy one last night boys. The Yankees put a hurt on the Indians just as predicted. Carmona was defeated before he even took the mound. That win jumps us up to 6-0 on the year. Good start for sure so let’s keep it up as I stay in the AL Ease again tonight.

I just really like LHP David Price (7-5 3.35 ERA). I think it’s because he’s tough and he throws strikes and doesn’t give in easily. He comes into this game 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA in three starts at Baltimore. Overall, he is 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA in six career starts against the O’s. On Monday, he won for the fourth time in five starts on the road. Needless to say, he’s a stud.

The O’s have RHP Jeramie Guthrie (2-8 3.71 ERA) on the bump tonight. Guthrie is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA over his last three starts and leads the league in losses. He started against the Rays on the 13th of May and lost 3-0. He started against them on the 7th of May and lost 8-2 and he also started the opener against Price and lost 4-1. After hearing all of this, why in the world would you bet on Guthrie?

Yes, the O’s are looking for their 5th straight win but they aren’t as good as Tampa and Price is tough as nails. Look for Tampa to coast to a ML win in this one.

2011 MLB Record: 6-0-0 +600

TAMPA -127

Key Stats:
· Tampa is 9-2 in Price’s last 11 road starts
· Baltimore is 3-8 in Guthrie’s last 11 starts

Enfuego One Play a Day Baseball

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