Yesterday 1 1 0 +0.58 Units
Last 30 Days 37 50 1 -17.36 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 78 97 1 -18.18 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Oakland +101 over BALTIMORE
Lefty vs. lefty. Brian Matusz had six wins in his final ten starts last season. He also had a143 k’s in 175 innings and as a rookie, he held his own with a 4.34 ERA. Not great, but not bad either. The problem is he’s off to a late start this season and while he pitched well in his season debut a few days ago, you must take into consideration he went just five innings and the game was played in Seattle. Matusz had two horrible months last year: May (7.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP) and July (8.10 ERA, 1.85 WHIP). He’s going to have months like that is whole career unless he dramatically decreases his fly-ball profile. In eight starts in 2009 his GB/FB rate was 31%/48%. Last year in 32 starts it was 36%/45% and in his first start in Seattle he recorded three GB outs and 14 FB outs for a GB/FB rate of 18%/65%. Matusz has good stuff but he’s a long way from being an ace. He surrendered 19 jacks a year ago and he’s definitely not as sharp as he would be had he started the year healthy or on par with everyone else. The O’s have dropped seven of its last nine games and over that span they scored 28 runs and batted .224. These two met in Oakland for a weekend series just prior to this past weekend. Oakland won all three and outscored the O’s 16-8. Gio Gonzalez pitched better than his surface stats showed in '09. Last year, the reverse was true. Some hit % and strand % helped propel him to a sub-3.50 ERA. In the end, his control has improved for two straight years, and he has some of the best off-speed stuff of any lefty in the league. Baltimore is 7-13 vs southpaws while the A’s are 6-2 vs lefties on the road and 10-5 overall. Play: Oakland +101 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +122 over CINCINNATI (1st 5 innings)
Because Matt Garza is likely going to be on a short pitch count, the play here is the Cubbies in five. Matt Garza has been using more sliders/cut fastballs and changeups this season. While his surface stats are far from ace-like (3.72 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), only Cliff Lee had a higher BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) in April than Garza's 171 BPV. Garza's skills have been electric. He has been victimized by a crazy 40% hit %. The fact that he has a sub-4.00 ERA despite his 40% hit % highlights just how special his base skills have been. So does his 2.73 xERA. He’s also struck out 68 in 56 innings. Garza has been elite against both LH and RH bats, further proof that he is primed to become an elite SP this season. Mike Leake is serviceable but he’s no Matt Garza by any stretch. He was sent down earlier this year and overall he’s been about as average as it gets. Leake is 3-1 at Great American but he has an ERA of 5.22 and current Cubbies hitters are batting .322 against him. The Cubs are struggling to be sure but so are the Reds and it seems like they’re behind every game after five frames. This one should be no different. Play: Chicago +122 in the first 5 innings (Risking 2 units).
Seattle -102 over CHICAGO
The White Sox have never faced Michael Pineda. All Pineda has done is post a 6-2 record to go along with an ERA of 2.30. The “Safeco” argument is not a valid one either, as Pineda has been just as good on the road with a 3-1 record and a 2.61 ERA. He’s also struck out 73 batters in 70 frames and has allowed just 50 hits for a BAA of .196 to go along with a WHIP of 1.00. The M’s are on fire with 14 wins in their last 18 games while the South Side continue to play below .500. John Danks is 0-8 with a 5.25 ERA. He’s also pitching under a lot of pressure as rumors swirl about a possible demotion and even a trade. Danks confidence is also shot, as his numbers are getting progressively worse and so his durability. Danks has a 7.36 ERA over his last three starts and nothing points to a turnaround. If this is the sucker play of the day so be it, but everything points to an M’s win. Play: Seattle -102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 37 50 1 -17.36 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 78 97 1 -18.18 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Oakland +101 over BALTIMORE
Lefty vs. lefty. Brian Matusz had six wins in his final ten starts last season. He also had a143 k’s in 175 innings and as a rookie, he held his own with a 4.34 ERA. Not great, but not bad either. The problem is he’s off to a late start this season and while he pitched well in his season debut a few days ago, you must take into consideration he went just five innings and the game was played in Seattle. Matusz had two horrible months last year: May (7.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP) and July (8.10 ERA, 1.85 WHIP). He’s going to have months like that is whole career unless he dramatically decreases his fly-ball profile. In eight starts in 2009 his GB/FB rate was 31%/48%. Last year in 32 starts it was 36%/45% and in his first start in Seattle he recorded three GB outs and 14 FB outs for a GB/FB rate of 18%/65%. Matusz has good stuff but he’s a long way from being an ace. He surrendered 19 jacks a year ago and he’s definitely not as sharp as he would be had he started the year healthy or on par with everyone else. The O’s have dropped seven of its last nine games and over that span they scored 28 runs and batted .224. These two met in Oakland for a weekend series just prior to this past weekend. Oakland won all three and outscored the O’s 16-8. Gio Gonzalez pitched better than his surface stats showed in '09. Last year, the reverse was true. Some hit % and strand % helped propel him to a sub-3.50 ERA. In the end, his control has improved for two straight years, and he has some of the best off-speed stuff of any lefty in the league. Baltimore is 7-13 vs southpaws while the A’s are 6-2 vs lefties on the road and 10-5 overall. Play: Oakland +101 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +122 over CINCINNATI (1st 5 innings)
Because Matt Garza is likely going to be on a short pitch count, the play here is the Cubbies in five. Matt Garza has been using more sliders/cut fastballs and changeups this season. While his surface stats are far from ace-like (3.72 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), only Cliff Lee had a higher BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) in April than Garza's 171 BPV. Garza's skills have been electric. He has been victimized by a crazy 40% hit %. The fact that he has a sub-4.00 ERA despite his 40% hit % highlights just how special his base skills have been. So does his 2.73 xERA. He’s also struck out 68 in 56 innings. Garza has been elite against both LH and RH bats, further proof that he is primed to become an elite SP this season. Mike Leake is serviceable but he’s no Matt Garza by any stretch. He was sent down earlier this year and overall he’s been about as average as it gets. Leake is 3-1 at Great American but he has an ERA of 5.22 and current Cubbies hitters are batting .322 against him. The Cubs are struggling to be sure but so are the Reds and it seems like they’re behind every game after five frames. This one should be no different. Play: Chicago +122 in the first 5 innings (Risking 2 units).
Seattle -102 over CHICAGO
The White Sox have never faced Michael Pineda. All Pineda has done is post a 6-2 record to go along with an ERA of 2.30. The “Safeco” argument is not a valid one either, as Pineda has been just as good on the road with a 3-1 record and a 2.61 ERA. He’s also struck out 73 batters in 70 frames and has allowed just 50 hits for a BAA of .196 to go along with a WHIP of 1.00. The M’s are on fire with 14 wins in their last 18 games while the South Side continue to play below .500. John Danks is 0-8 with a 5.25 ERA. He’s also pitching under a lot of pressure as rumors swirl about a possible demotion and even a trade. Danks confidence is also shot, as his numbers are getting progressively worse and so his durability. Danks has a 7.36 ERA over his last three starts and nothing points to a turnaround. If this is the sucker play of the day so be it, but everything points to an M’s win. Play: Seattle -102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
