Yesterday 0 3 0 -6.04 Units
Last 30 Days 35 51 1 -23.42 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 78 100 1 -24.22 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Los Angeles +162 over PHILADELPHIA
The Phillies win a lot of baseball games but their offense is one that is becoming less feared by the day. They’ll explode from time to time, just like any other team, but they’re not even average anymore. Playing half their games in one of the friendliest hitting parks in the majors, Philadelphia ranks 16th in the entire league in runs scored, 17th in team batting average and 15th in OPS. Over their last five games the Phillies have not gone yard, they’ve scored 15 runs and they’re batting .231. Over their last 30 games, the Phillies are a .500 team (15-15), yet they’re heavily favored almost daily because teams have to face either Halliday, Lee, Hamels or tonight’s starter, Roy Oswalt. That proves further how below average the offense is and how much value comes with taking the dog. Keep your eye on Rubby De La Rosa. De La Rosa owns pure arm strength and can light up radar guns with his fastball that often touches triple digits. He'll sit between 93-98 mph and is tough to hit. He throws with whip-like arm action, which gives him deception and pitch movement. De La Rosa also uses a slider and changeup, though both are still in the development phase. When on, his sharp slider exhibits nasty action, but he doesn't throw it for strikes consistently. The good news is that his feet are wet and he’s only walked one batter in five frames covering three relief appearances. He’s also struck out five and at this price against some bats that can easily get dominated, he and the Dodgers are worth a play. Play: Los Angeles +162 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI –1½ +123 over Chicago
The Chicago Cubs should take Matt Garza, Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney aside and tell everyone else to “GET THE F**K OUTTA HERE”. The Cubbies own the league’s worst record and it’s no mystery as to why. They make mental errors, they make physical errors and you rarely see them execute the fundamentals with success. After a double to lead off an inning, or with men on first and second with no outs, moving him/them over with a productive out or bunt rarely happens. They don’t manufacture runs and instead rely on the two or three run jack, and that, too, seldom occurs. Over the past week, the Cubs are batting a league-low .209 BA with an embarrassing .578 OPS. Their staff ERA on the road (5.11) is the worst in the league as well. The pitching staffs of Cincinnati and Chicago have offered up the two highest walk totals in the NL this season. Cincinnati’s hitters are second in the NL in drawing walks, while the Cubs are dead last in that category. Tonight the Cubs are going to throw Doug Davis out there to get slaughtered. This guy can’t get guys out at Petco, AT & T or Chavez Ravine so the writing is on the wall for how he’s going to fair at Great American. Davis is also a lefty and the Reds possess some staggering numbers against southpaws that make them the best in the league when facing one. This isn’t even a good lefty. Lou Pinella walked out on the Cubs because he couldn’t stomach it any more and who could blame him now? Play: Cincinnati –1½ +123 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +132 over SAN FRANCISCO
When you wager on a strong pitcher facing the Giants you’re chances of cashing the ticket are good. San Francisco’s home OPS is 13th in the league (.661), and most of that was when Buster Posey was playing. Earlier this week on Sirius/XM radio, Roy Halladay was asked what pitcher he can envision breaking out, and he didn't hesitate a second before he blurted out one name: Jordan Zimmermann. Looks like Halladay knows what he is talking about. Entering this season, Zimmermann had delivered 120 IP of a sub-4.00 xERA, so a sub 4.00 ERA seems like a reasonable expectation as that strand rate of 68% is bound to normalize. It took a while to recover from his August 2009 Tommy John surgery, but Zimmermann's velocity is back. Zimmermann's control is better than ever before, as he’s now walked just 14 batters in 67 frames. The kid is getting stronger and better with each passing start and surely he can do well against this light-hitting group. By contrast, Jonathan Sanchez has issued 40 walks in 69 innings. He struggles to throw strikes while pitching from a full windup and that leads to a lot of leadoff walks to begin an inning. Sanchez has decent stuff but those leadoff walks have hurt him and that’s why he has just four wins in 12 starts. Play: Washington +132 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona –110 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates could definitely be in a big letdown spot here after they sold out three games at PNC over the weekend and had yesterday off. The whole city was engaged and so was every player from top to bottom. Tonight PNC will be three quarters empty again and so might the Pirates tank. Additionally, the Pirates are batting a puny .219 at home and have a tough assignment facing Daniel Hudson. Hudson has won six of his last seven decisions and has a 41/7 K/BB over that period. Hudson has a career BAA of .236 and current Pirates have only had 11 AB’s against him and have two hits (.182). Kevin Correia's early results with Pittsburgh have been encouraging: 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 77 IP. The optimism ends there though. Most of his base skills have been terrible. He has a low strikeout rate, a high strand percentage and he’s been helped greatly by a very low and unsustainable 27% hit rate. A correction is coming, that you can be sure of. Correia is 1-3 at PNC with a 5.47 ERA and he’ll face a hot D-Backs club with a league-leading .847 OPS over the past week. Lay the small tag. Play: Arizona –110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
We’re also going to make three, three-game parlays tonight that look like this:
Boston –124 - Cinci –1½ +123 - Washington +130 (Risking 0.2 units to win 1.64 units).
Boston –124 - Cinci –1½ +123 – Dodgers +162 (Risking 0.2 units to win 1.86 units).
Boston –124 - Cinci –1½ +123 – Milwaukee –1½ +120 (Risking 0.2 units to win 1.54 units).
Last 30 Days 35 51 1 -23.42 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 78 100 1 -24.22 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Los Angeles +162 over PHILADELPHIA
The Phillies win a lot of baseball games but their offense is one that is becoming less feared by the day. They’ll explode from time to time, just like any other team, but they’re not even average anymore. Playing half their games in one of the friendliest hitting parks in the majors, Philadelphia ranks 16th in the entire league in runs scored, 17th in team batting average and 15th in OPS. Over their last five games the Phillies have not gone yard, they’ve scored 15 runs and they’re batting .231. Over their last 30 games, the Phillies are a .500 team (15-15), yet they’re heavily favored almost daily because teams have to face either Halliday, Lee, Hamels or tonight’s starter, Roy Oswalt. That proves further how below average the offense is and how much value comes with taking the dog. Keep your eye on Rubby De La Rosa. De La Rosa owns pure arm strength and can light up radar guns with his fastball that often touches triple digits. He'll sit between 93-98 mph and is tough to hit. He throws with whip-like arm action, which gives him deception and pitch movement. De La Rosa also uses a slider and changeup, though both are still in the development phase. When on, his sharp slider exhibits nasty action, but he doesn't throw it for strikes consistently. The good news is that his feet are wet and he’s only walked one batter in five frames covering three relief appearances. He’s also struck out five and at this price against some bats that can easily get dominated, he and the Dodgers are worth a play. Play: Los Angeles +162 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI –1½ +123 over Chicago
The Chicago Cubs should take Matt Garza, Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney aside and tell everyone else to “GET THE F**K OUTTA HERE”. The Cubbies own the league’s worst record and it’s no mystery as to why. They make mental errors, they make physical errors and you rarely see them execute the fundamentals with success. After a double to lead off an inning, or with men on first and second with no outs, moving him/them over with a productive out or bunt rarely happens. They don’t manufacture runs and instead rely on the two or three run jack, and that, too, seldom occurs. Over the past week, the Cubs are batting a league-low .209 BA with an embarrassing .578 OPS. Their staff ERA on the road (5.11) is the worst in the league as well. The pitching staffs of Cincinnati and Chicago have offered up the two highest walk totals in the NL this season. Cincinnati’s hitters are second in the NL in drawing walks, while the Cubs are dead last in that category. Tonight the Cubs are going to throw Doug Davis out there to get slaughtered. This guy can’t get guys out at Petco, AT & T or Chavez Ravine so the writing is on the wall for how he’s going to fair at Great American. Davis is also a lefty and the Reds possess some staggering numbers against southpaws that make them the best in the league when facing one. This isn’t even a good lefty. Lou Pinella walked out on the Cubs because he couldn’t stomach it any more and who could blame him now? Play: Cincinnati –1½ +123 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +132 over SAN FRANCISCO
When you wager on a strong pitcher facing the Giants you’re chances of cashing the ticket are good. San Francisco’s home OPS is 13th in the league (.661), and most of that was when Buster Posey was playing. Earlier this week on Sirius/XM radio, Roy Halladay was asked what pitcher he can envision breaking out, and he didn't hesitate a second before he blurted out one name: Jordan Zimmermann. Looks like Halladay knows what he is talking about. Entering this season, Zimmermann had delivered 120 IP of a sub-4.00 xERA, so a sub 4.00 ERA seems like a reasonable expectation as that strand rate of 68% is bound to normalize. It took a while to recover from his August 2009 Tommy John surgery, but Zimmermann's velocity is back. Zimmermann's control is better than ever before, as he’s now walked just 14 batters in 67 frames. The kid is getting stronger and better with each passing start and surely he can do well against this light-hitting group. By contrast, Jonathan Sanchez has issued 40 walks in 69 innings. He struggles to throw strikes while pitching from a full windup and that leads to a lot of leadoff walks to begin an inning. Sanchez has decent stuff but those leadoff walks have hurt him and that’s why he has just four wins in 12 starts. Play: Washington +132 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona –110 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates could definitely be in a big letdown spot here after they sold out three games at PNC over the weekend and had yesterday off. The whole city was engaged and so was every player from top to bottom. Tonight PNC will be three quarters empty again and so might the Pirates tank. Additionally, the Pirates are batting a puny .219 at home and have a tough assignment facing Daniel Hudson. Hudson has won six of his last seven decisions and has a 41/7 K/BB over that period. Hudson has a career BAA of .236 and current Pirates have only had 11 AB’s against him and have two hits (.182). Kevin Correia's early results with Pittsburgh have been encouraging: 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 77 IP. The optimism ends there though. Most of his base skills have been terrible. He has a low strikeout rate, a high strand percentage and he’s been helped greatly by a very low and unsustainable 27% hit rate. A correction is coming, that you can be sure of. Correia is 1-3 at PNC with a 5.47 ERA and he’ll face a hot D-Backs club with a league-leading .847 OPS over the past week. Lay the small tag. Play: Arizona –110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
We’re also going to make three, three-game parlays tonight that look like this:
Boston –124 - Cinci –1½ +123 - Washington +130 (Risking 0.2 units to win 1.64 units).
Boston –124 - Cinci –1½ +123 – Dodgers +162 (Risking 0.2 units to win 1.86 units).
Boston –124 - Cinci –1½ +123 – Milwaukee –1½ +120 (Risking 0.2 units to win 1.54 units).
