Yesterday 5 2 0 +9.40 Units
Last 30 Days 40 50 1 -8.02 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 83 102 1 -14.82 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Washington +172 over SAN FRANCISCO
3:45 PM EST. The Giants are now 3-2 on their current home stand and they’ve scored 12 runs over that stretch. Take away the five runs they scored in a 13-inning game on Monday and that’s seven runs in four games and therein lies the trouble you’re asking for when laying large lumber with the Giants. San Fran is batting .204 over the past week and they’ll face a pitcher they’ve never seen before in Yunesky Maya. Maya is 0-2 with an ERA of 8.00 but the sample size is too small to put any merit on it. After defecting from Cuba last July, Maya arrived in the majors in a matter of weeks. He made just five minor league appearances. The crafty right-hander throws the proverbial "kitchen sink" at hitters, with both his slider and curve being solid, and he has good command. That said, he has little margin for error. He struggles to get the ball over 90 mph, though he can get solid sink on it, and lacks a true swing-and-miss pitch. He was nibbling too often last year, but reportedly is working on trusting his pitches a bit more and he has a bit more raw stuff now as he rounds back into form after not having pitched much in the past year and a half. He’s not nearly as awful as those surface stats suggest and the Giants bats could instill some early confidence in him. Matt Cain needs no introduction. He’s a AAA reliability workhorse that almost always give the Giants a chance to win. However, the Giants are just 1-2 in Cain’s last three starts and over that span his ERA is 4.74. Furthermore, he’s had trouble against the Nats and in fact, current Washington batters have 72 AB’s against Cain and they’re hitting a combined .324 against him. Tag has influence and Giants inability to score adds to the appeal. Play: Washington +172 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +103 over COLORADO
6:35 PM EST. Aaron Cook favored in San Diego is a little out of whack when you consider that the Rocks can’t win a baseball game on the road with their best pitchers going. In fact, Colorado has won just four of its last 17 road games and now you’re going to trust them as the chalk with Cook on the hill? Cook is a lifetime stiff with two good years in his 10 years of service. The Rockies are using him over some other prospects and they’re using him for one reason and one reason only. Actually, check that. They’re using him for 10 million reasons. That’s right, that’s what the Rocks will pay Cook in 2011 so they’re going to put that money to work whether he’s ready or not. Cook has a career ERA of 4.41 and a career BAA of .291 over 10 years and that’s when he was feeling good. In the past nine months he’s suffered a broken leg, a broken finger, a bad back and shoulder stiffness. His ERA last season was 5.08 and one really has to question just how sharp he’ll be in is first start of the year. Even at his best, Cook is one of the most hittable pitchers in the game and it’s doubtful he’ll be close to that level here. He has no upside whatsoever, as his skills and body continue to deteriorate. The Pads have won four of five, eight of their past 11 and should not be a pooch in their own barn against a broken down stiff throwing for a team that can’t win on the road. Play: San Diego +103 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +117 over N.Y. YANKEES
Pay no attention to A.J Burnett’s recent success of three quality starts in which he went 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA. Those starts came in Oakland, Seattle and at Citi Field against the Mets, all extreme pitchers parks. Reasons not to expect the 2006-08 version to return? How about a three-year decline in strikeout rate and a skill set that is in a death spiral. In New York, he's been consistently mediocre: half-season xERAs of 4.31/4.47/4.53/4.54 (2009-2010) and this year is no different. Current skills say he's a shell of his former self and age makes anything close to a major turnaround unlikely. This isn’t the A’s, M’s or Mets either. The Red Sox are batting .289 with an .834 OPS over the last 28 days and have scored 40 runs over their past six games. Tim Wakefield will go out there and do what he always does. He may get hit hard but he may also throw six strong and frankly, there isn’t a crystal ball in the world that can predict which version we’ll see here. What we do know is that the Yanks are overpriced again and that A.J. Burnett has very little chance of success. We also know that the Red Sox have a juggernaut offense and that they’ve won 20 of their past 26 games on grass. Whenever you can get the Red Sox at a tag, especially against a guy like Burnett, you’re going with the best of it. Play: Boston +117 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 40 50 1 -8.02 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 83 102 1 -14.82 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Washington +172 over SAN FRANCISCO
3:45 PM EST. The Giants are now 3-2 on their current home stand and they’ve scored 12 runs over that stretch. Take away the five runs they scored in a 13-inning game on Monday and that’s seven runs in four games and therein lies the trouble you’re asking for when laying large lumber with the Giants. San Fran is batting .204 over the past week and they’ll face a pitcher they’ve never seen before in Yunesky Maya. Maya is 0-2 with an ERA of 8.00 but the sample size is too small to put any merit on it. After defecting from Cuba last July, Maya arrived in the majors in a matter of weeks. He made just five minor league appearances. The crafty right-hander throws the proverbial "kitchen sink" at hitters, with both his slider and curve being solid, and he has good command. That said, he has little margin for error. He struggles to get the ball over 90 mph, though he can get solid sink on it, and lacks a true swing-and-miss pitch. He was nibbling too often last year, but reportedly is working on trusting his pitches a bit more and he has a bit more raw stuff now as he rounds back into form after not having pitched much in the past year and a half. He’s not nearly as awful as those surface stats suggest and the Giants bats could instill some early confidence in him. Matt Cain needs no introduction. He’s a AAA reliability workhorse that almost always give the Giants a chance to win. However, the Giants are just 1-2 in Cain’s last three starts and over that span his ERA is 4.74. Furthermore, he’s had trouble against the Nats and in fact, current Washington batters have 72 AB’s against Cain and they’re hitting a combined .324 against him. Tag has influence and Giants inability to score adds to the appeal. Play: Washington +172 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +103 over COLORADO
6:35 PM EST. Aaron Cook favored in San Diego is a little out of whack when you consider that the Rocks can’t win a baseball game on the road with their best pitchers going. In fact, Colorado has won just four of its last 17 road games and now you’re going to trust them as the chalk with Cook on the hill? Cook is a lifetime stiff with two good years in his 10 years of service. The Rockies are using him over some other prospects and they’re using him for one reason and one reason only. Actually, check that. They’re using him for 10 million reasons. That’s right, that’s what the Rocks will pay Cook in 2011 so they’re going to put that money to work whether he’s ready or not. Cook has a career ERA of 4.41 and a career BAA of .291 over 10 years and that’s when he was feeling good. In the past nine months he’s suffered a broken leg, a broken finger, a bad back and shoulder stiffness. His ERA last season was 5.08 and one really has to question just how sharp he’ll be in is first start of the year. Even at his best, Cook is one of the most hittable pitchers in the game and it’s doubtful he’ll be close to that level here. He has no upside whatsoever, as his skills and body continue to deteriorate. The Pads have won four of five, eight of their past 11 and should not be a pooch in their own barn against a broken down stiff throwing for a team that can’t win on the road. Play: San Diego +103 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +117 over N.Y. YANKEES
Pay no attention to A.J Burnett’s recent success of three quality starts in which he went 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA. Those starts came in Oakland, Seattle and at Citi Field against the Mets, all extreme pitchers parks. Reasons not to expect the 2006-08 version to return? How about a three-year decline in strikeout rate and a skill set that is in a death spiral. In New York, he's been consistently mediocre: half-season xERAs of 4.31/4.47/4.53/4.54 (2009-2010) and this year is no different. Current skills say he's a shell of his former self and age makes anything close to a major turnaround unlikely. This isn’t the A’s, M’s or Mets either. The Red Sox are batting .289 with an .834 OPS over the last 28 days and have scored 40 runs over their past six games. Tim Wakefield will go out there and do what he always does. He may get hit hard but he may also throw six strong and frankly, there isn’t a crystal ball in the world that can predict which version we’ll see here. What we do know is that the Yanks are overpriced again and that A.J. Burnett has very little chance of success. We also know that the Red Sox have a juggernaut offense and that they’ve won 20 of their past 26 games on grass. Whenever you can get the Red Sox at a tag, especially against a guy like Burnett, you’re going with the best of it. Play: Boston +117 (Risking 2 units).
