buddy from another site:
LAD-COL
-Unders are scary in Coors, especially with those two bullpens, but Kershaw has owned the Rockies and he's coming off a bad start ready to bounceback. Chacin has been really good at times this season, but has struggled lately until his last start. He's fared well against the Dodgers besides Ethier who's hitting .545 against him in 11 career ABs. Kershaw has dominated lefties over his career, which will help to limit a lot of the Rockies best hitters and also forces some of their better guys out of the lineup in favor of weak-hitting righties. He's always been better at home, but he has a career ERA of 3.20 on normal rest and believe it or not that's his highest among 4, 5 and 6+ days. He's 5-4 with a 3.69 ERA vs. COL and @COL he's 3-3 with a 5.44 ERA, but his last three starts in Denver have seen him allow 6 runs in 17 innings which equates to about a 3.18 ERA. Clayton's got a 2.91 ERA with Barajas, who should be catching him tomorrow, and he's got the advantage of a tired team that lost an hour traveling east from a tough game in San Diego. Meanwhile, Jhoulys hasn't been seen much by the Dodgers. He's been much better against righties in his career, but Loney's bat doesn't scare me and only Ethier has demonstrated success against him in their matchups. The Dodgers can put a heavy righty lineup out there if they want to, but not so much for getting quality lefties in there. He's been nearly a run better on the road in his career ERA numbers, but his WHIP is better at home and that may be a more indicative factor. He's on normal rest which is okay for him, wish he had another day because he's been absolutely filthy on 5 days. His 4-3 record against LA looks okay, but the 2.40 ERA is awesome and I think he'll limit a soft hitting lineup. The weather in Denver is a little scary, projecting thunderstorms in the area, but we see only a 30% chance of rain and humidity will be in the 40% range. High humidity is great for overs on the east coast, but the ball doesn't travel as well in Coors as it does when the air is dry. Definitely looking for the 1H under, probably will play u3.5 but I'm not sure I want the flat 3. Two bullpens I want to avoid for sure though...
WAS-SD
-I was pretty accurate on my pre-season prediction that we'd see a resurgence from Aaron Harang. He sits 6-2 with a 3.77 ERA largely thanks to the park he pitches in. His flyball ways work very well in San Diego, and the Nationals aren't hitting the ball right now plus it's a long westcoast trip. They may be dragging at this point after going from Phoenix to San Francisco to San Diego without a day off, and I really do like their bullpen (besides what they did to me on Sunday). The same can be said for the Padres, who have a weaker offense and a better bullpen. For those reasons, I'm actually considering the u6.5 when I really try to swear off unders below the key number of 7. Hawpe, Cantu and Headley have all hit Livan pretty well in a minimum of 10 AB's, but the way the team is going right now I'm not sure I'm afraid. The Nats have hit Harang well, specifically Alex Cora's powerful bat, and the rest of the squad hasn't seen him much besides a struggling Jayson Werth (2/11). Definite concerns with Heath Bell's availability after getting the loss today and getting the save yesterday, but Buddy Black has used Bell on three consecutive days and on four consecutive days in late May and earlier this month respectively. The weather helps a ton as it's not going to hit 60 and the marine layer will be in full effect as the 75% humidity will knock all the fly balls down. I doubt we see this number hitting 7, so I'm not in a rush for a number or a juice, but as soon as I get a decent umpire I think I'm in for this one. Should be 2-1 or 3-2...
OAK-CHW
-Cahill has been struggling and his team hasn't hit the ball at all. Seems like a very cheap price on Buerhle, who can be really good. Trevor's been seen quite a bit by the ChiSox and he's been hit hardest by none other than Omar Vizquel (.529) and next on the list would be free-swinging Alexei Ramirez (.350). Lefties have hit him better over his career, so maybe Adam Dunn will make contact for once. He's also boasting an ERA over a run worse on the road and his team isn't hitting the ball at all. The White Sox are at home waiting for Oakland while the A's had to leave Baltimore after a payback sweep and get ready for a much better team. Cahill hasn't loved four days rest, and he's 1-2 against CHW with a 3.70 ERA plus he's worse at night and his 3 starts at US Cellular Field leave him with a 6.08 ERA. Buerhle's had 7 straight QS's and he's on an extra day of rest. The A's have seen him a lot, but only hit .242 as a group lead by Kurt Suzuki (.391) and Coco Crisp (.348). He's given up a HR every 40 AB's against this lineup, which looks good considering that's the only way the A's have been scoring via instant offense. Mark wins when he gets 3+ runs and I think he'll get it tomorrow. The bullpen has gotten better, but it may not be close at that point because Buerhle's best ERA comes from 5 days rest. Somehow he's 5-13 career vs. OAK with a low 3.73 ERA. He might get some extra motivation from this, I don't know, but those numbers are too good for that.
CIN-SF
-I haven't been shy in voicing my opinion that the Giants are extremely overrated. They're still surviving on great pitching and absolutely no offense, which won't last for long even in the hitters graveyard known as AT&T Park. Bumgarner has been bad at home and they don't support him well, while Cueto has been filthy this year. The Reds dropped yesterday's game on get-away day to the Cubs, which capped a disappointing homestand at 5-4 and they should be angry/motivated. Cueto's been hit somewhat hard by the Giants that have seen him, but only 3 of the 20 hits have been XBH and no HR. He's been great since coming off the DL, and I don't think this Giants lineup can hit him in his current form. Bumgarner is extremely new to this Cincinnati team, probably only saw him once, but they went 7/14 against him and added a walk for a .533 OBP. Madison's actually recorded 8 consecutive QS's, but he is 2-7 for a reason. Both starters are on 4 days rest, and I think the matchup favors the road team. Bumgarner has gotten hit almost 50 points higher in terms of BA and exactly 50 in OBP by RH hitters compared to lefties and the Reds will load the lineup with righties, besides the normal Bruce and Votto, to use that advantage. His 1-6 record at home is hard to understand, but it is fact so it has to be taken into consideration. He's good when he gets support, but I don't think that will happen with how good Cueto has been and how many automatic outs are in that lineup with no speed anywhere. He's been the best on his normal rest, but that 23.63 ERA vs. CIN sticks out like a sore thumb. Cueto's limited lefties over his career more than righties and his ERA is similar in all venues either home or away even though his winning percentage is less on the road. He's a guy that wins with support and loses without it, but four days rest hasn't been kind to him. He's thrown 6ip vs. SF and he gave up 4 ER and got peppered allowing 10 hits, but he hasn't seen the benefits of AT&T Park and I think he'll enjoy it. He's not a huge fan of the night starts, but I think that's a different pitcher than his current form.
add
Cincinnati ML (-104) @ San Francisco
Chicago ML (-113) vs. Oakland
leans:
SD u6.5
COL u3.5 1H