Yesterday 2 0 0 +4.36 Units
Last 30 Days 41 50 1 -5.50 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 86 104 1 -12.12 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Kansas City +145 over L.A. ANGELS
It’s rarely a good idea to lay a significant price with a cold team and while the Royals aren’t exactly setting the world on fire either, they’re not the one’s laying better than 7½-5. Additionally, K.C. has beaten the Halos five out of seven games this season. Overall, the Angels have dropped seven of their last eight games and scored 16 runs over that eight-game stretch with a league low .595 OPS. Ervin Santana has yielded multiple home runs in four of his last six starts. Santana's sub-4.00 2010 ERA represented significant improvement from his 5.00+ ERA of 2009. The skills, however, were nearly identical to those of 2009. Santana is a fly-ball pitcher and thus the escalation in HR’s allowed. Santana's skills are essentially those of an average starting pitcher and his ERA of 4.30 and xERA of 4.47 confirm that. Jeff Francis has an excellent groundball/FB rate of 49%/31%. He’s been hurt by a low 66% strand rate but his ERA over the past month is 3.79 and that’s with that low strand rate. That’s not to say he’s in for a positive ERA correction. It just says he’s no worse than Santana and his chances of keeping the Angels in check are just as good as Santana’s and perhaps even better. The tag seals the deal. Play: Kansas City +145 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay/BALTIMORE over 8½ +108
Jeremy Hellickson is having a great rookie season but his below the surface stats suggest that a regression is forthcoming. Hellickson has a GB/FB profile of 35%/51%. Over his last two starts that profile is even worse at 60%/30%. Over the past month he has a strand rate of 83% and his strand rate on the year is an unsustainable 79%. The Orioles have seen him twice already this season and while they only have seven hits in 14 innings against him, not to mention 0 runs, they now know exactly what to expect and it’s rare for a rookie pitcher with a skill set like Hellickson’s to dominate the same team three times in less in a 30-day span. He won’t shut them out again and the fact that the Rays are a small price (-122) suggests that the books expect the O’s to put up something. Even if Hellickson has a decent game, Jake Arietta is likely to give up plenty. Over his last four starts, Arietta has walked 14 and struck out 14. His ERA at Camden Yards is 5.23 and his 7-3 record is a complete fraud. He faced the Rays on May 15 and TB won that game 9-3. Arietta recorded four groundball outs and 15 fly-ball outs. A couple of those are likely to leave the yard, as Arietta has surrendered at least one jack in eight of his last nine starts. Tampa scored 19 runs in a three-game set here in May. Play: TB/Baltimore over 8½ +108 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +194 over PHILADELPHIA
Despite the fact that Roy Halladay is going, the Phillies can’t score runs and that makes them a huge risk laying big lumber. The Phillies have scored two runs or less in five of their past nine games. They’ve scored more than three runs once in their past nine games and will face a pitcher that has dominated them in the past. Carlos Zambrano has held PHI hitters to a .226 BA over his career, and has been particularly effective against Placido Polanco (2-13, .154 BA), Jimmy Rollins (3-20, .150 BA), and Chase Utley (3-17, .176 BA). For batters with at least 10 career AB’s against Zambrano, only Shane Victorino has fared well (5-10, .500 BA). Halladay may throw another gem indeed, as he’s expected to and usually does every time he takes the hill. However, his ERA is 3.86 over his last three starts while Zambrano’s is 1.29 over that same span. Can the Cubbies win three in a row? Yeah, they can win a low scoring game and we’d much rather take a team off two wins in a row than a bunch of losses in a row. The Phillies are not bettable these days laying 2-1. Incidentally, Halladay is 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA in his career v the Cubbies. Play: Chicago +194 (Risking 2 units).
COLORADO –1½ +144 over Los Angeles
Laying 1½-runs at home is definitely riskier than laying it on the road but Coors Field takes away a lot of that risk. The Rocks are heating up and when this team gets on an offensive roll they can light up anyone. Chad Billingsley has faced the Rockies twice already this year, once at home and once at Coors. He’s allowed 17 hits in 10 innings over those two starts and when he pitched at Coors he lasted just three innings. In his career at Coors, Billingsley has been whacked to the tune of 29 hits and 22 runs in 27 frames. He’s simply not comfortable at this park and the Dodgers pen is a disaster waiting to happen. There was little doubt when the season began who Colorado's staff ace was. But with Ubaldo Jimenez struggling, you could very well argue the title these days belongs to Jhoulys Chacin. A few observations on Chacin's hot start: Chacin's GB% was already very good entering 2011 (55%), and he's taken it up a notch through the first third of the season (59%). Chacin is walking fewer hitters. He's done so by pitching to contact, which means fewer Ks, but with a huge groundball rate of 59%, it's a tradeoff we'll take. Chacin’s line-drive rate of 12% is one of the best in the league and everything about him points to skill, not luck, being behind his success. Play: Colorado –1½ +144 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 41 50 1 -5.50 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 86 104 1 -12.12 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Kansas City +145 over L.A. ANGELS
It’s rarely a good idea to lay a significant price with a cold team and while the Royals aren’t exactly setting the world on fire either, they’re not the one’s laying better than 7½-5. Additionally, K.C. has beaten the Halos five out of seven games this season. Overall, the Angels have dropped seven of their last eight games and scored 16 runs over that eight-game stretch with a league low .595 OPS. Ervin Santana has yielded multiple home runs in four of his last six starts. Santana's sub-4.00 2010 ERA represented significant improvement from his 5.00+ ERA of 2009. The skills, however, were nearly identical to those of 2009. Santana is a fly-ball pitcher and thus the escalation in HR’s allowed. Santana's skills are essentially those of an average starting pitcher and his ERA of 4.30 and xERA of 4.47 confirm that. Jeff Francis has an excellent groundball/FB rate of 49%/31%. He’s been hurt by a low 66% strand rate but his ERA over the past month is 3.79 and that’s with that low strand rate. That’s not to say he’s in for a positive ERA correction. It just says he’s no worse than Santana and his chances of keeping the Angels in check are just as good as Santana’s and perhaps even better. The tag seals the deal. Play: Kansas City +145 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay/BALTIMORE over 8½ +108
Jeremy Hellickson is having a great rookie season but his below the surface stats suggest that a regression is forthcoming. Hellickson has a GB/FB profile of 35%/51%. Over his last two starts that profile is even worse at 60%/30%. Over the past month he has a strand rate of 83% and his strand rate on the year is an unsustainable 79%. The Orioles have seen him twice already this season and while they only have seven hits in 14 innings against him, not to mention 0 runs, they now know exactly what to expect and it’s rare for a rookie pitcher with a skill set like Hellickson’s to dominate the same team three times in less in a 30-day span. He won’t shut them out again and the fact that the Rays are a small price (-122) suggests that the books expect the O’s to put up something. Even if Hellickson has a decent game, Jake Arietta is likely to give up plenty. Over his last four starts, Arietta has walked 14 and struck out 14. His ERA at Camden Yards is 5.23 and his 7-3 record is a complete fraud. He faced the Rays on May 15 and TB won that game 9-3. Arietta recorded four groundball outs and 15 fly-ball outs. A couple of those are likely to leave the yard, as Arietta has surrendered at least one jack in eight of his last nine starts. Tampa scored 19 runs in a three-game set here in May. Play: TB/Baltimore over 8½ +108 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +194 over PHILADELPHIA
Despite the fact that Roy Halladay is going, the Phillies can’t score runs and that makes them a huge risk laying big lumber. The Phillies have scored two runs or less in five of their past nine games. They’ve scored more than three runs once in their past nine games and will face a pitcher that has dominated them in the past. Carlos Zambrano has held PHI hitters to a .226 BA over his career, and has been particularly effective against Placido Polanco (2-13, .154 BA), Jimmy Rollins (3-20, .150 BA), and Chase Utley (3-17, .176 BA). For batters with at least 10 career AB’s against Zambrano, only Shane Victorino has fared well (5-10, .500 BA). Halladay may throw another gem indeed, as he’s expected to and usually does every time he takes the hill. However, his ERA is 3.86 over his last three starts while Zambrano’s is 1.29 over that same span. Can the Cubbies win three in a row? Yeah, they can win a low scoring game and we’d much rather take a team off two wins in a row than a bunch of losses in a row. The Phillies are not bettable these days laying 2-1. Incidentally, Halladay is 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA in his career v the Cubbies. Play: Chicago +194 (Risking 2 units).
COLORADO –1½ +144 over Los Angeles
Laying 1½-runs at home is definitely riskier than laying it on the road but Coors Field takes away a lot of that risk. The Rocks are heating up and when this team gets on an offensive roll they can light up anyone. Chad Billingsley has faced the Rockies twice already this year, once at home and once at Coors. He’s allowed 17 hits in 10 innings over those two starts and when he pitched at Coors he lasted just three innings. In his career at Coors, Billingsley has been whacked to the tune of 29 hits and 22 runs in 27 frames. He’s simply not comfortable at this park and the Dodgers pen is a disaster waiting to happen. There was little doubt when the season began who Colorado's staff ace was. But with Ubaldo Jimenez struggling, you could very well argue the title these days belongs to Jhoulys Chacin. A few observations on Chacin's hot start: Chacin's GB% was already very good entering 2011 (55%), and he's taken it up a notch through the first third of the season (59%). Chacin is walking fewer hitters. He's done so by pitching to contact, which means fewer Ks, but with a huge groundball rate of 59%, it's a tradeoff we'll take. Chacin’s line-drive rate of 12% is one of the best in the league and everything about him points to skill, not luck, being behind his success. Play: Colorado –1½ +144 (Risking 2 units).
