Yesterday 1 3 0 -3.10 Units
Last 30 Days 41 52 1 -8.90 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 87 107 1 -15.22 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Washington +108 over SAN DIEGO
In terms of 2011 park effects, Petco ranks 28th in runs (deflating runs by 27%), and 24th in HR (deflating HR by 25%). For John Lannan, the news is even better, as San Diego ranks last in MLB with a .584 OPS at home. Lannan went 8-8 with a 4.65 ERA in 143 IP last year. A disastrous 1H resulted in ticket back to AA and then Lannan came back strong in his final 11 starts (3.42 ERA, 1.24 WHIP). Lannan is an extreme groundball pitcher and with an excellent batted ball profile of 51%/18%/30%. That’s GB/line-drive/FB. He threw a two-hitter in seven frames vs. the Pads on May 27 and over his last three starts he’s given up one earned run in 20 innings for an ERA of 0.45. Clayton Richard has an ERA of 4.20 and a xERA of 4.97. 41 K’s and 30 walks in 71 innings is part of the reason for his high xERA and his control does not seem to be getting any better. Richard has walked 10 and struck out 10 over his last three starts and in his two June starts he has a 1.71 WHIP. We get the better pitcher, the better offense and a small tag to boot. Play: Washington +108 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Mets +106 over PITTSBURGH
The Mets have won six of their last eight games and over that stretch they’ve scored 43 runs and batted .273. And it’s not like they faced a bunch of stiffs either. In fact, over that eight-game span, the Mets faced Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Shaun Marcum, Yovani Gallardo and last night they whacked Charlie Morton. The Mets are playing good baseball right now. The Pirates are not. In fact, the Pirates haven’t had anything more than a single since Wednesday against Arizona, the same day catcher Chris Snyder went down with a herniated disk - he’s one of the club’s nine players on the disabled list and the Pirates have been completely punchless all week. With Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh’s other catcher, out until at least late July, the Bucs have another glaring hole in a lineup that’s already missing third baseman Pedro Alvarez and continually juggling right fielders. Dusty Brown and Wyatt Toregas, the Pirates’ current catchers, are a combined 15 for 86 (.174) in their careers. To make matters worse they’ll have to see a knuckleballer here in R.A. Dickey. Over his last four starts, Dickey is 2-1 with an ERA of 1.85. James MacDonald was roughed up against a struggling Phillies team in his last start. He has a BAA of .270, a WHIP of 1.52 and an ERA of 4.97. He also has a tilted FB/GB profile of 39%/44% and this really has to be considered one of the better plays of the day. The Metropolitans are on fire and the Pirates are seeing BB’s. Play: N.Y. Mets +106 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. YANKEES –1½ +105 over Cleveland
You’ll have to excuse us while we crap our pants in awe of the Yankees but the fact is, they’re beating up on these struggling teams. The Yanks took their frustrations of being swept by the superior Red Sox out on the free-falling Indians last night and they’ll likely continue that here. The Cleveland offense has been in a tailspin since its hit rate-aided six-week surge at the beginning of the season, a stretch that saw them hit .271/.342/.433 (.775). Since then the Indians have gone 8-14, scoring 3.2 RPG and batting just .226/.287/.355 (.642). This series marks the first meeting this season between the Indians and Yankees. A year ago, New York took 6-of-8 from Cleveland, outscoring the Indians, by a 2-to-1 margin (60-30) and piling up 7½ RPG. Mitch Talbot can’t throw strikes, he has a WHIP of 1.75 and a BAA of .313. It’s rope after rope after rope when this guy pitches and current Yanks are hitting .313 off him. Then there’s Bartolo Colon. Go ahead, admit it. You giggled when the Yankees signed Bartolo Colon in February. You shook your head when he made the team in late March, and chuckled to yourself when he ended up in the starting rotation in April. We did too. And yet 2011 is the only year that matters, since this is such a different pitcher than the 2006-09 version (which was--and somewhat remains--the source of pessimism). Revolutionary medical treatment or not, it may be time to admit that this Colon is for real. He's put up monster skills across the board. The 3.26 ERA is not a hit%/strand rate mirage. Hit and strand are perfectly normal--as well as hr/f, which is even a touch high--and xERA agrees that his ERA is well earned. His triple-digit BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) ranks fourth among AL SP, and Colon has been consistent through the season: 130 BPV in April 116 BPV in May. Nothing could have foretold this story of a 38-year-old returning with such success. But amazingly, there's no obvious red flags in his 2011 skill set itself--the main risks are outside his performance on the mound (age, workload, poor recent track record, etc.) and until we see something different, Colon is a solid play against anyone right now. Play: N.Y. Yankees –1½ +105 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +133 over L.A. ANGELS
The last time the Angels scored more than three runs was back on May 30. Over that stretch, covering nine games, the Halos have scored 18 runs and batted .231. They have one win over that span and it came against Ivan Nova and the Yanks when they exploded for three runs. The Angels have lost six straight and will face Felipe Paulino. Shoulder inflammation shelved Paulino’s upside arm in second half last year. While overall skills didn't grow like expected, they did in flashes and this year he looks real sharp. In 31 frames, Paulino has whiffed 25 and walked just 10. He also has an outstanding GB/LD/FB profile of 57%/16%/27%. Paulino’s W/L record of 0-4 is one of the most misleading records in the league. Paulino has pitched mostly out of the pen this season but has started the past two games in which he allowed one earned run in 11.2 innings. Over his last three appearances covering 16 frames he’s allowed eight hits and one run and two of those three games were against Toronto and Texas. The man can pitch and he’s actually more comfortable in the starter’s role. In 53 innings, Joel Pinero has struck out 23 batters. He does have pinpoint control and he has a very decent GB profile but his xERA of 4.47 is a more accurate account of his skills than his 3.76 actual ERA. Pinero will keep the Angels in a lot of games. Having said that, this one is more about playing against the slumping Angels taking back a tag with a hurler that is most definitely flying under the radar. Play: Kansas City +133 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 41 52 1 -8.90 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 87 107 1 -15.22 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Washington +108 over SAN DIEGO
In terms of 2011 park effects, Petco ranks 28th in runs (deflating runs by 27%), and 24th in HR (deflating HR by 25%). For John Lannan, the news is even better, as San Diego ranks last in MLB with a .584 OPS at home. Lannan went 8-8 with a 4.65 ERA in 143 IP last year. A disastrous 1H resulted in ticket back to AA and then Lannan came back strong in his final 11 starts (3.42 ERA, 1.24 WHIP). Lannan is an extreme groundball pitcher and with an excellent batted ball profile of 51%/18%/30%. That’s GB/line-drive/FB. He threw a two-hitter in seven frames vs. the Pads on May 27 and over his last three starts he’s given up one earned run in 20 innings for an ERA of 0.45. Clayton Richard has an ERA of 4.20 and a xERA of 4.97. 41 K’s and 30 walks in 71 innings is part of the reason for his high xERA and his control does not seem to be getting any better. Richard has walked 10 and struck out 10 over his last three starts and in his two June starts he has a 1.71 WHIP. We get the better pitcher, the better offense and a small tag to boot. Play: Washington +108 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Mets +106 over PITTSBURGH
The Mets have won six of their last eight games and over that stretch they’ve scored 43 runs and batted .273. And it’s not like they faced a bunch of stiffs either. In fact, over that eight-game span, the Mets faced Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Shaun Marcum, Yovani Gallardo and last night they whacked Charlie Morton. The Mets are playing good baseball right now. The Pirates are not. In fact, the Pirates haven’t had anything more than a single since Wednesday against Arizona, the same day catcher Chris Snyder went down with a herniated disk - he’s one of the club’s nine players on the disabled list and the Pirates have been completely punchless all week. With Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh’s other catcher, out until at least late July, the Bucs have another glaring hole in a lineup that’s already missing third baseman Pedro Alvarez and continually juggling right fielders. Dusty Brown and Wyatt Toregas, the Pirates’ current catchers, are a combined 15 for 86 (.174) in their careers. To make matters worse they’ll have to see a knuckleballer here in R.A. Dickey. Over his last four starts, Dickey is 2-1 with an ERA of 1.85. James MacDonald was roughed up against a struggling Phillies team in his last start. He has a BAA of .270, a WHIP of 1.52 and an ERA of 4.97. He also has a tilted FB/GB profile of 39%/44% and this really has to be considered one of the better plays of the day. The Metropolitans are on fire and the Pirates are seeing BB’s. Play: N.Y. Mets +106 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. YANKEES –1½ +105 over Cleveland
You’ll have to excuse us while we crap our pants in awe of the Yankees but the fact is, they’re beating up on these struggling teams. The Yanks took their frustrations of being swept by the superior Red Sox out on the free-falling Indians last night and they’ll likely continue that here. The Cleveland offense has been in a tailspin since its hit rate-aided six-week surge at the beginning of the season, a stretch that saw them hit .271/.342/.433 (.775). Since then the Indians have gone 8-14, scoring 3.2 RPG and batting just .226/.287/.355 (.642). This series marks the first meeting this season between the Indians and Yankees. A year ago, New York took 6-of-8 from Cleveland, outscoring the Indians, by a 2-to-1 margin (60-30) and piling up 7½ RPG. Mitch Talbot can’t throw strikes, he has a WHIP of 1.75 and a BAA of .313. It’s rope after rope after rope when this guy pitches and current Yanks are hitting .313 off him. Then there’s Bartolo Colon. Go ahead, admit it. You giggled when the Yankees signed Bartolo Colon in February. You shook your head when he made the team in late March, and chuckled to yourself when he ended up in the starting rotation in April. We did too. And yet 2011 is the only year that matters, since this is such a different pitcher than the 2006-09 version (which was--and somewhat remains--the source of pessimism). Revolutionary medical treatment or not, it may be time to admit that this Colon is for real. He's put up monster skills across the board. The 3.26 ERA is not a hit%/strand rate mirage. Hit and strand are perfectly normal--as well as hr/f, which is even a touch high--and xERA agrees that his ERA is well earned. His triple-digit BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) ranks fourth among AL SP, and Colon has been consistent through the season: 130 BPV in April 116 BPV in May. Nothing could have foretold this story of a 38-year-old returning with such success. But amazingly, there's no obvious red flags in his 2011 skill set itself--the main risks are outside his performance on the mound (age, workload, poor recent track record, etc.) and until we see something different, Colon is a solid play against anyone right now. Play: N.Y. Yankees –1½ +105 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +133 over L.A. ANGELS
The last time the Angels scored more than three runs was back on May 30. Over that stretch, covering nine games, the Halos have scored 18 runs and batted .231. They have one win over that span and it came against Ivan Nova and the Yanks when they exploded for three runs. The Angels have lost six straight and will face Felipe Paulino. Shoulder inflammation shelved Paulino’s upside arm in second half last year. While overall skills didn't grow like expected, they did in flashes and this year he looks real sharp. In 31 frames, Paulino has whiffed 25 and walked just 10. He also has an outstanding GB/LD/FB profile of 57%/16%/27%. Paulino’s W/L record of 0-4 is one of the most misleading records in the league. Paulino has pitched mostly out of the pen this season but has started the past two games in which he allowed one earned run in 11.2 innings. Over his last three appearances covering 16 frames he’s allowed eight hits and one run and two of those three games were against Toronto and Texas. The man can pitch and he’s actually more comfortable in the starter’s role. In 53 innings, Joel Pinero has struck out 23 batters. He does have pinpoint control and he has a very decent GB profile but his xERA of 4.47 is a more accurate account of his skills than his 3.76 actual ERA. Pinero will keep the Angels in a lot of games. Having said that, this one is more about playing against the slumping Angels taking back a tag with a hurler that is most definitely flying under the radar. Play: Kansas City +133 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
