Yesterday 2 2 0 +0.26 Units
Last 30 Days 43 52 1 -4.38 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 89 109 1 -14.96 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y. Mets +105 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates rolled a three yesterday but two of those runs came when a ball went off Daniel Murphy’s glove with two outs in the third that should have ended the inning. The Pirates did not score again the rest of the way and overall, they’ve scored just seven runs in their last four games. On June 1, Kevin Correia and Chris Capuano hooked up in N.Y. and Correia and the Bucs won 9-3. However, the Mets carried a 2-0 lead into the seventh and saw enough of Correia to finish him off today. Despite some encouraging early results with the Pirates (3.64 ERA 1.25 WHIP), Correia’s skills are borderline terrible. He rarely strikes out anyone and has been saved by a 28% hit rate. In other words, balls have been put in play and have been hit right at people. His xERA of 4.81 strongly suggests a correction is coming very soon. Chris Capuano is the opposite of Correia in that his xERA of 4.12 is much lower than his actual ERA of 4.86. His 85 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) in April and 90 BPV in May suggest his skills have been strong all along, even though his surface stats were terrible in April. In the month of May, Capuano posted a 3.99 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Overall he has 54 K’s in 67 IP while walking just 19. He’s a better pitcher than Correia, the Mets offense is also better than the Pirates and the tag here really sweetens the deal. Play: N.Y. Mets +105 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +107 over SAN DIEGO
Prior to this season Tim Stauffer did not pitch more than 83 innings in a single year in the majors over the past five seasons. Last season he appeared in 32 games but only seven as a starter and threw a total of 82.2 innings. This season he’s already thrown 78 innings and he’s showing signs of tiring. Stauffer has not made it out of the sixth inning in three of his last six starts, going 5.1 innings twice and five innings once. Prior to his last start against a Rockies team that had gone 10 straight games without scoring more than three runs, Stauffer had allowed an eye-opening 39 hits and 21 earned runs in 29 frames. For the season, Stauffer has a BAA of .274 and has been hit hard in four of his last six starts. He’s the second best pitcher in this game and it’s not close. Jordan Zimmerman has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts and has pitched at least six full innings in all of those starts. He has not walked more than two batters in a game all season and has not walked more than one in four straight. Over his last four starts covering 26.1 frames, Zimmerman has an ERA of 1.71 and a WHIP of 0.93. He’ll now face the lowest scoring team in the majors that has struck out a combined league high 524 times. Play: Washington +107 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +109 over SAN FRANCISCO
How can you not take the Reds here? The Giants have more casualties than a Quentin Tarantino movie and it’s not getting any better. The Giants lost Freddy Sanchez on Saturday and he was one of the few hitters producing for San Francisco with a .289 BA and 24 RBIs - second-most on the team. Sanchez leaves an already depleted line-up with more holes. The Giants have scored nine runs on their last five games and they rank near the bottom of the league in runs per game (3.5) and batting average (.240). They’ll face Edison Volquez here and the only question about Volquez is his command. If he throws strikes he’s as good as any starter in the league. He has 58 k’s in 58 innings and an outstanding GB profile of 53%. When a team is pressing like the Giants are, they’ll usually help a pitcher out by swinging at stuff out of the strike zone. Besides, Jonathan Sanchez has command issues too and in fact, Sanchez has walked 11 and struck out seven over his last two starts. Additionally, the Reds have owned LHPs this season, battering them to the tune of a .301 BA and .857 OPS (#1 in MLB). So, assuming the pitching match-up is close to equal, the next question is which offense would you rather back? The Giants offense laying a price or the Reds offense taking back one? Play: Cincinnati +107 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 43 52 1 -4.38 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 89 109 1 -14.96 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y. Mets +105 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates rolled a three yesterday but two of those runs came when a ball went off Daniel Murphy’s glove with two outs in the third that should have ended the inning. The Pirates did not score again the rest of the way and overall, they’ve scored just seven runs in their last four games. On June 1, Kevin Correia and Chris Capuano hooked up in N.Y. and Correia and the Bucs won 9-3. However, the Mets carried a 2-0 lead into the seventh and saw enough of Correia to finish him off today. Despite some encouraging early results with the Pirates (3.64 ERA 1.25 WHIP), Correia’s skills are borderline terrible. He rarely strikes out anyone and has been saved by a 28% hit rate. In other words, balls have been put in play and have been hit right at people. His xERA of 4.81 strongly suggests a correction is coming very soon. Chris Capuano is the opposite of Correia in that his xERA of 4.12 is much lower than his actual ERA of 4.86. His 85 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) in April and 90 BPV in May suggest his skills have been strong all along, even though his surface stats were terrible in April. In the month of May, Capuano posted a 3.99 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Overall he has 54 K’s in 67 IP while walking just 19. He’s a better pitcher than Correia, the Mets offense is also better than the Pirates and the tag here really sweetens the deal. Play: N.Y. Mets +105 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +107 over SAN DIEGO
Prior to this season Tim Stauffer did not pitch more than 83 innings in a single year in the majors over the past five seasons. Last season he appeared in 32 games but only seven as a starter and threw a total of 82.2 innings. This season he’s already thrown 78 innings and he’s showing signs of tiring. Stauffer has not made it out of the sixth inning in three of his last six starts, going 5.1 innings twice and five innings once. Prior to his last start against a Rockies team that had gone 10 straight games without scoring more than three runs, Stauffer had allowed an eye-opening 39 hits and 21 earned runs in 29 frames. For the season, Stauffer has a BAA of .274 and has been hit hard in four of his last six starts. He’s the second best pitcher in this game and it’s not close. Jordan Zimmerman has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts and has pitched at least six full innings in all of those starts. He has not walked more than two batters in a game all season and has not walked more than one in four straight. Over his last four starts covering 26.1 frames, Zimmerman has an ERA of 1.71 and a WHIP of 0.93. He’ll now face the lowest scoring team in the majors that has struck out a combined league high 524 times. Play: Washington +107 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +109 over SAN FRANCISCO
How can you not take the Reds here? The Giants have more casualties than a Quentin Tarantino movie and it’s not getting any better. The Giants lost Freddy Sanchez on Saturday and he was one of the few hitters producing for San Francisco with a .289 BA and 24 RBIs - second-most on the team. Sanchez leaves an already depleted line-up with more holes. The Giants have scored nine runs on their last five games and they rank near the bottom of the league in runs per game (3.5) and batting average (.240). They’ll face Edison Volquez here and the only question about Volquez is his command. If he throws strikes he’s as good as any starter in the league. He has 58 k’s in 58 innings and an outstanding GB profile of 53%. When a team is pressing like the Giants are, they’ll usually help a pitcher out by swinging at stuff out of the strike zone. Besides, Jonathan Sanchez has command issues too and in fact, Sanchez has walked 11 and struck out seven over his last two starts. Additionally, the Reds have owned LHPs this season, battering them to the tune of a .301 BA and .857 OPS (#1 in MLB). So, assuming the pitching match-up is close to equal, the next question is which offense would you rather back? The Giants offense laying a price or the Reds offense taking back one? Play: Cincinnati +107 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
