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The bettors are clearly betting the over here because the first three games of this series went over the total. Liriano and Harrison combined for 14 unders and 7 overs so far this season. Both have eras under 2 in last 3 starts. Both are getting little to no run support lately ( Twins scoring 2 runs or less in last 6 Liriano starts and Rangers scoring 3 runs or less in 7 of Harrison's last 8 starts). All three overs in this series were 'one-dimensional', as all three games had at least one starter doing the job while the other one crashed down. In game #3 Baker came away with a CG allowing 1 run. In game #2 Wilson had a quality start against Twins. In game #1 Blackburn was good and Holland was solid. Bullpens allowed 5 earned runs in 18.2 IP in this series which is very solid (2.41 era).

UNDER 8 GAME
UNDER 4 1ST 5 INNINGS
 

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when i posted this several 8's were stil out there. anyways, it's two winners regardless
 

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The bettors like the over in LA for two reasons. First, they are looking at the Dodgers offensive explosion in Colorado, and second, they are obviously looking at LA & CIN ytd o/u records. The problem is, it is not as easy to score runs in LA as it is in Colorado. Colorado ballpark leads the majors with 10.56 runs per game while LA ballpark is ranked #25 in MLB with 7.06 runs per game. Cincinnati is in the first place in the majors with 38 overs this season but most of those overs came in their own ballpark. Their o/u record at home is 22-10 and on the road it is 16-16. And by the way, their ou/record on the current road trip is 1-3. As for the Dodgers, their ytd o/u record is 35-27, but most of their overs came on the road where their o/u record is 22-11 while at home their o/u record is 13-16. Both Kuroda and Arroyo are off of two quality starts and all those starts came in hitter friendly ballparks (3 in Cincy and 1 in Philly). Both starters have quality or solid starts against today's opponents in last 4 meetings, including one from this season when they met in Cincy in a game that ended 2-1 earlier this month. I believe that public is overreacting here and biting into a low total that to me looks right where it should be.

UNDER 7.5 (GAME)
 

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2-1
I believe that I jumped on this series one game too soon. The starters did well but the game flied over the total. I will stick to this same series today, and will go with the under again. LA & CIN hit only .212 Monday and scored 10 runs, which was a fluke imo. Both Cincy homers came with 2 outs, and that second one in the 6th also came with two guys on bases, with one of them reaching the base on an error and the other one getting the walk. Cueto is dominant this season and Kershaw is very good at home. Under 6.5
 

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Both Morton and Happ got killed in their last starts allowing 12 earned runs in less than 10 innings pitched. Those are not 'big name pitchers' and usually that's enough for a recreational bettor to expect a high scoring affaire. And when they see a total of 7.5, they will like the over even more. I just don't see it that way. Both Morton and Happ have been able to bounce back well after a bad start this season. Morton has an era of 1.32 after allowing 4+ earned runs and Happ has an era of 2.13 after allowing 6+ earned runs this season. Both offenses are anemic right now and that will help the pitchers even more. Morton was brilliant against Houston earlier this season allowing 1 earned run in 7.2 IP and that run came in the 8th inning. Happ was solid in his only start against Pittsburgh this season. Morton is better on the road (both complete games this season came on the road, era on the road is 2.90) and Happ is much better at home (era of 3.64, 6 quality and 1 bad start there YTD). Finally, Pittsburgh scored 2 runs in last 22 innings against lefty starters. Under 7.5
 

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latest pittsburgh games vs lefty starters:
0-7 vs capuano and the mets, score after 5 innings: 0-0
3-2 vs duke and d'backs, score after 5 innings: 1-0
2-1 vs hammels and phillies, score after 5 innings: 0-0
9-3 vs capuano and mets, score after 5 innings: 2-0
4-2 vs davis and cubs, score after 5 innings: 4-0
2-4 vs minor and mets, score after 5 innings: 1-1
2-4 vs lannan and nats, score after 5 innings: 1-2
2-8 vs narveson and brewers, score after 5 innings: 1-2
3-10 vs lilly and dodgers, score after 5 innings: 0-0
5-4 vs happ and astros, score after 5 innings: 2-0
2-3 vs rodriguez and astros, score after 5 innings: 1-1
that's 11 straight pittsburgh games vs lefty starters that had no more than 4 runs in the first 5 innings. 19 runs in total, for an average of 1.73 runs.

under 4 in the first 5 innings.
i'll also play both team total unders, under 3.5 pittsburgh, under 3.5 houston for a total of 4 plays today.
 

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more and more bettors are pounding the over in the cbs game. i will stay away from the game total but will take the first inning no run prop. narveson has yet to allow a first inning run this season (13 starts) and milwaukee hasn't scored a first inning run in 8 straight games. in this series no team has yet to score a run in any of the first two innings.
 

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latest pittsburgh games vs lefty starters:
0-7 vs capuano and the mets, score after 5 innings: 0-0
3-2 vs duke and d'backs, score after 5 innings: 1-0
2-1 vs hammels and phillies, score after 5 innings: 0-0
9-3 vs capuano and mets, score after 5 innings: 2-0
4-2 vs davis and cubs, score after 5 innings: 4-0
2-4 vs minor and mets, score after 5 innings: 1-1
2-4 vs lannan and nats, score after 5 innings: 1-2
2-8 vs narveson and brewers, score after 5 innings: 1-2
3-10 vs lilly and dodgers, score after 5 innings: 0-0
5-4 vs happ and astros, score after 5 innings: 2-0
2-3 vs rodriguez and astros, score after 5 innings: 1-1
that's 11 straight pittsburgh games vs lefty starters that had no more than 4 runs in the first 5 innings. 19 runs in total, for an average of 1.73 runs.

Under 4 in the first 5 innings.
I'll also play both team total unders, under 3.5 pittsburgh, under 3.5 houston for a total of 4 plays today.
awesome research, just great stuff, ilike it
 

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more and more bettors are pounding the over in the cbs game. i will stay away from the game total but will take the first inning no run prop. narveson has yet to allow a first inning run this season (13 starts) and milwaukee hasn't scored a first inning run in 8 straight games. in this series no team has yet to score a run in any of the first two innings.

PERFECT REASON FORUMS ARE HERE, this helps people who are busy and this is just fine capping buddy. I 'll follow all your plays today b/c you found some gems. 13 starts no runs, just good stuff
 

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Can you sum up your plays? Thanks buddy.

Sure.

Under 7.5 HOU/PIT
Under 4 HOU/PIT 1st 5 innings
Under 3.5 HOU team total
Under 3.5 PIT team total
First inning no run: MIL/CHC

Thanks for your support guys, best of luck to all of us.
 

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