Heat Are Favorites In 2012

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hacheman@therx.com
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Miami Heat must stay the course

With no major changes needed, Miami will be the favorites in the 2011-12 NBA season



Chris Palmer
ESPN The Magazine
ESPN Insider
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After all the confetti has been swept from the floor of AmericanAirlines Arena and the aroma of champagne has faded from the visitors locker, the Miami Heat will be charged with the task of re-evaluating their season and reloading for another run at an NBA championship.


Like many of us -- the Heat most of all -- we made the mistake of thinking that this title was prepackaged for Miami as soon as they strode on stage and shimmied their way into our collective consciousness. It seemed all they had to do was show up to claim what was theirs, but it didn't quite work out like that. Instead, Miami needs a bit more seasoning and a few more quality pieces to strengthen a roster with quite a few holes. This we now know: They need to get younger, tougher and deeper.
So management has a lengthy to-do list this summer that will need to be dealt with before the Heat can deliver what they're truly capable of, and much of the focus in the coming months will be on what they need to do.


But what they shouldn't do is as equally important. Here are four key "don'ts" for the offseason (however long) ahead:


1: Don't fire Erik Spoelstra



He very well could be the LeBron James of the coaching ranks in that he's taken an inordinate share of knocks this season. From his seeming inability to motivate to redundant battle cries ("stay the course," anyone?) to being in the unenviable position of having a Hall of Famer looking over his shoulder every waking moment and the speculation that came with it, this hasn't been an easy season. His lineups were questioned, as were his sets, timeouts and news conferences.
Let's get this straight: Erik Spoelstra didn't lose this series.
<OFFER>The Heat lost because their aggressiveness abandoned them on both ends of the floor in crucial stages of the series. That is beyond Spoelstra's reach and not on him.


The whisper in the room is that Miami is better off with Pat Riley returning to the bench the way he cast Stan Van Gundy aside at the end of the 2004-05 season. The franchise needs stability and to stay out of the spotlight off the court. The firing of Spoelstra and subsequent appointment of Riley (or anyone else) would raise the hype back to post-Decision levels. This would serve to add an entirely new layer of pressure on the organization.


Spoelstra isn't some fly-by-night NBA act. He's been in the organization for 16 years, playing nearly every role imaginable. He's done a much better job with the clipboard than given credit for and handled himself with aplomb despite the constant media storm. If nothing else, he's proved he can handle it. He's coming into his own as a coach just as some of the players are still developing their games. Keeping the core pieces of this group together, including Spoelstra, is the right move.


2: Don't make any major trades

Miami has few options, with a roster full of players with little to no trade value -- and trading one of the Big Three would be one of the worst upper-management knee-jerk reactions in league history. Mario Chalmers has the most value, but after a terrific Finals in which he averaged 11.8 points per game and shot 40 percent from behind the arc, he's emerged as one of the best complements to James, Wade and Bosh.
The Heat could stand to get much, much younger on the bench. If the sole benefit of having longtime vets sign with the Heat for the minimum is simply to round out the roster, then at some point during a championship chase that's going to come back to bite you. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard and Jamaal Magloire have 38 years combined experience, but each averaged fewer than two points per game in the Finals and were non-factors in the playoffs.
Outside of the big guns, Spoelstra didn't have a consistent rotation he could rely on. It only got worse during the playoffs. Players went from starting to DNPs and from 20-point outings to out of the rotation altogether. Younger, hungrier and more athletic players earning the minimum (or close to it) who can come in and affect the game in terms of tempo, energy and hustle stats would help a lot more than a 13-year veteran who isn't going to play. The contributions to the box score are one thing, but having players who could effectively spell James and Wade and trim their minutes per game would be a very subtle way of putting themselves in a better position to win a championship.


Tweaking the roster spots from 7-12 will be a necessity yet won't upset whatever chemistry the Heat have developed. Imagine the Heat with anything other than a 6½-man rotation and you begin to get a sense of what they could really be capable of.


3: Don't overanalyze the Finals



Coaches watch game tape. It's the nature of the profession. That will never change. They'll no doubt scour tapes of Games 1 through 6 of the Finals searching for clues as to what went wrong. But the answer from an X-and-O standpoint won't be found deep in the film room.
Miami's lack of aggression and prolonged lapses in its vaunted defense combined with an outstandingly resilient and hot-shooting Mavs team are the broad strokes as to why the Heat lost to Dallas. Yes, tweaks will be required from a philosophical standpoint, and more attention must be paid to getting guys to play to their strengths. Contests, rotations and close outs are all things every team that doesn't win a title wishes it would have done better.


But in the Heat's case, it's less about tinkering than upping the ante in the effort department. Something's a bit off when, in an elimination game, the favored home team lacks focus and intensity in the fourth quarter. If there's a silver lining, it's that Miami knows very clearly why it lost. The fixes don't require complicated trades or overhauls of the game plan. But perhaps a little soul-searching wouldn't hurt.


4: Don't lose perspective



I said a little soul-searching. Let's not make a summer out of it. This isn't the end of the world for LeBron James. He will likely re-evaluate his season both on and off court and hopefully learn from the mistakes he made in the last year in the hopes of not reliving them -- even if it was never about the size of his mistakes but the size of the reaction to them. Regardless of that reaction, he can't allow it to interfere with his growth as a basketball player.
The same can likely be said for Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in terms of using those experiences to better control the outcome of the upcoming year. Players gain little from beating themselves up during the summer. There's no time for anguish. To a man, their summers shouldn't be any different from normal. Spend time away from basketball to decompress as required. Follow it up with quality time with family and friends. Take a vacation. Drive across the country. Learn to play an instrument. Start a charity. Whatever, the point is to get away from the game and glaring spotlight like you would in any other offseason. As late July rolls around -- along with the itch to get back into the gym -- start adding pieces to your game.


James would do well to work on his footwork and moves in the low post the way Kobe Bryant did several years ago. Wade should work on improving his outside shot. It wouldn't hurt Bosh to pack on 15 pounds of muscle. By the time training camp rolls around (assuming a lockout hasn't disrupted business) the Heat can begin preparing for a season that will seem at least somewhat normal without the self-induced wounds of last year's bumbling public relations missteps.
And lastly:


5: Don't panic

This is the obvious knee-jerk reaction for Heat management, players and fans alike. But the simple reality is that as of right now, Miami is still the likely favorite to win the title in 2012.
 

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1st year together making it to the finals is far from a failure. Yes the goal was not accomplished but I will lay money they will be back in 2012
 
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Yeah was speaking to a Book yesterday and they already said that The Heat will be the favorites for next season.
 

Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory
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that's what the betting public will make them

conventional wisdom usually ain't very wise
 

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No real surprise to me. That the Heat would be 2012 favorites to win it all. They will probably march right through the east again.
 

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Boston will be a tough out for them if it is a shortened season, but yes they should at least make it back.
 

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2-13-2012:



With the win, Miami ran its record to 22-7—equaling the franchise’s best start after the first 29 games of a season, set in 1996-97 and again in 2004-05.
 

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Current odds at Greek:

Heat series tied 1-1


Basketball Futures EXIT
2012 NBA Playoffs - Odds to win *
*
5/16/2012*6:00 PM Odds to win the 2012 NBA Championship
601 Miami Heat ** *+135 *
602 San Antonio Spurs ** *+225 *
603 Oklahoma City Thunder ** *+245 *
604 Los Angeles Lakers ** *+2050 *
605 Boston Celtics ** *+1515 *
606 Los Angeles Clippers ** *+6550 *
607 Indiana Pacers ** *+2550 *
608 Philadelphia 76ers ** *+3050 *
 

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Should cake walk to the finals...

Current ECF odds at sports book.com

20:00 ETNBA Playoff Series Prices - Best of 7 Games (2-2-1-1-1)

883Celtics+600- o- *

Heat-900- u-
 

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