Yesterday 1 1 0 +1.06 Units
Last 30 Days 42 51 0 -3.70 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 92 111 1 -11.66 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Pittsburgh +109 over HOUSTON
Despite having a whole slew of injuries, the Pirates are still playing .500 ball. Despite being completely healthy, the Astros can’t get out of their own way and are now 25-43 and have dropped nine of its last 11 games. Hell, the Astros received a complete gem from Bud Norris last night and couldn’t even produce a run to get him off the hook. Now with the least amount of wins in the majors and a lousy frame of mind, the Astros will send about the most hittable pitcher in the majors out there to try and snap this thing. J.A. Happ has had plenty of doubters his whole career but he’s defied the odds somewhat with moderate success. It’s caught up to him this year, as he’s deservedly 3-8 with an ERA of 5.04. That’s what happens to extreme fly-ball pitchers. Happ’s GB/line-drive/FB ratio is an ugly 30%/21%/49%. That’s not a one-year blip either. Happ has been that way his whole career. So, besides questions about his lousy base skills, Happ will be backed by a weak Astros offense and a less talented bullpen than he had last year in Houston or the previous season in Philadelphia. When a player has been in the majors for a few seasons, we usually have a pretty good idea of his abilities. But every once in a while we get a Jose Bautista situation, when a guy performs in a manner that is so radically different from what we've seen from him before that we have to reconsider our perception of him, which brings us to Charlie Morton. After posting a 7.57 ERA last season (with a 2-12 record) he remodeled his delivery after Roy Halladay and suddenly has Doc-esque numbers (less the K’s) with two complete games. Morton's ground-ball rate of 64% is the best in baseball. After throwing his two-seam fastball less than 60 percent of the time in 2010, he is throwing it more than 80 percent of the time this year and as a result righties are batting just .192 against him while lefties are batting .356. Against a heavy left-handed lineup Morton would be a guy to bet against but against the heavily tilted right-handed line-up of the Astros, (only two left-handed bats) he’s most certainly a play taking back a tag. Play: Pittsburgh +109 (Risking 2 units).
Texas +119 over N.Y. YANKEES
Ivan Nova has allowed two earned runs or less in six of his last nine starts and those surface stats make him look rather appealing laying what is mostly considered a small tag at home playing for the Yanks. He even threw a seven-inning, two hitter in Texas back on May 6. Nova has a very good groundball profile but he struggles to get ahead of hitters and his poor BB/K rate of 29/35 and shaky WHIP of 1.54 makes him a bad risk. Nova has been aided greatly by a high strand rate of 83% over the past month and yet he’s still sporting an ERA of 4.30. As soon as some of those runners start scoring, Nova will be close to his xERA of 4.95. His last four opponents were the Indians, Angels, Mariners and Mets and that quartet can make a whole lot of pitchers look good. Nova has upside for sure. He’s 23-yrs-old with an excellent 51% GB but he’s only averaging 5.1 innings per start and the Yanks bullpen is batting practice out there. Derek Holland has a 3.02 ERA on the road. He has a great BB/K ratio of 29/70 in 82 IP. Holland is closer to becoming an ace than it may appear. He’s posting a 96 BPV the first time through lineups and a 135 BPV the third time through lineups. His problem has been an 8 BPV between those periods. Given his elite skill flashes early and late in games, once the middle catches up, he'll emerge quickly. There are no red flags at all about this guy. Play: Texas +119 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +136 over OAKLAND
Josh Outman has a great name for a baseball pitcher but that’s the only thing that’s great about him. What’s not so great is his nine walks and 10 K’s in 22 frames or his 35%/49% GB/FB profile. Outman’s 4.15 ERA is another mirage, as his xERA is 5.70. 22 innings is a small sample size but all those numbers are not far off his career numbers in 24 major league games. The A’s have one win in 14 games. They lost the opener last night 7-4 but that score is flattering as hell to them. They scored two in the eighth on an error on a routine grounder to second. The A’s have allowed 82 runs against over its last 15 games over that stretch the pen has an ERA of 5.54 and has allowed 17 jacks. Offensively, Oakland is near the bottom in every category. Meanwhile, the Royals have won four of five and the seven runs they scored at this pitcher-friendly venue last night could have easily been 14, as they had multiple runners on in every inning but one. For Luke Hochevar, both his GB rate and xERA trends along with a bunch of pure quality starts suggest there's still something decent here. Hochevar is coming off a gem vs the Blue Jays and prior to that he was throwing another gem vs the Twins through five but ran into trouble in the sixth. He’s getting close and with a 53% groundball rate and a pretty sweet tag to go along with it, he and the Royals offer up all the value in this one. Overlay. Play: Kansas City +136 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 42 51 0 -3.70 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 92 111 1 -11.66 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Pittsburgh +109 over HOUSTON
Despite having a whole slew of injuries, the Pirates are still playing .500 ball. Despite being completely healthy, the Astros can’t get out of their own way and are now 25-43 and have dropped nine of its last 11 games. Hell, the Astros received a complete gem from Bud Norris last night and couldn’t even produce a run to get him off the hook. Now with the least amount of wins in the majors and a lousy frame of mind, the Astros will send about the most hittable pitcher in the majors out there to try and snap this thing. J.A. Happ has had plenty of doubters his whole career but he’s defied the odds somewhat with moderate success. It’s caught up to him this year, as he’s deservedly 3-8 with an ERA of 5.04. That’s what happens to extreme fly-ball pitchers. Happ’s GB/line-drive/FB ratio is an ugly 30%/21%/49%. That’s not a one-year blip either. Happ has been that way his whole career. So, besides questions about his lousy base skills, Happ will be backed by a weak Astros offense and a less talented bullpen than he had last year in Houston or the previous season in Philadelphia. When a player has been in the majors for a few seasons, we usually have a pretty good idea of his abilities. But every once in a while we get a Jose Bautista situation, when a guy performs in a manner that is so radically different from what we've seen from him before that we have to reconsider our perception of him, which brings us to Charlie Morton. After posting a 7.57 ERA last season (with a 2-12 record) he remodeled his delivery after Roy Halladay and suddenly has Doc-esque numbers (less the K’s) with two complete games. Morton's ground-ball rate of 64% is the best in baseball. After throwing his two-seam fastball less than 60 percent of the time in 2010, he is throwing it more than 80 percent of the time this year and as a result righties are batting just .192 against him while lefties are batting .356. Against a heavy left-handed lineup Morton would be a guy to bet against but against the heavily tilted right-handed line-up of the Astros, (only two left-handed bats) he’s most certainly a play taking back a tag. Play: Pittsburgh +109 (Risking 2 units).
Texas +119 over N.Y. YANKEES
Ivan Nova has allowed two earned runs or less in six of his last nine starts and those surface stats make him look rather appealing laying what is mostly considered a small tag at home playing for the Yanks. He even threw a seven-inning, two hitter in Texas back on May 6. Nova has a very good groundball profile but he struggles to get ahead of hitters and his poor BB/K rate of 29/35 and shaky WHIP of 1.54 makes him a bad risk. Nova has been aided greatly by a high strand rate of 83% over the past month and yet he’s still sporting an ERA of 4.30. As soon as some of those runners start scoring, Nova will be close to his xERA of 4.95. His last four opponents were the Indians, Angels, Mariners and Mets and that quartet can make a whole lot of pitchers look good. Nova has upside for sure. He’s 23-yrs-old with an excellent 51% GB but he’s only averaging 5.1 innings per start and the Yanks bullpen is batting practice out there. Derek Holland has a 3.02 ERA on the road. He has a great BB/K ratio of 29/70 in 82 IP. Holland is closer to becoming an ace than it may appear. He’s posting a 96 BPV the first time through lineups and a 135 BPV the third time through lineups. His problem has been an 8 BPV between those periods. Given his elite skill flashes early and late in games, once the middle catches up, he'll emerge quickly. There are no red flags at all about this guy. Play: Texas +119 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +136 over OAKLAND
Josh Outman has a great name for a baseball pitcher but that’s the only thing that’s great about him. What’s not so great is his nine walks and 10 K’s in 22 frames or his 35%/49% GB/FB profile. Outman’s 4.15 ERA is another mirage, as his xERA is 5.70. 22 innings is a small sample size but all those numbers are not far off his career numbers in 24 major league games. The A’s have one win in 14 games. They lost the opener last night 7-4 but that score is flattering as hell to them. They scored two in the eighth on an error on a routine grounder to second. The A’s have allowed 82 runs against over its last 15 games over that stretch the pen has an ERA of 5.54 and has allowed 17 jacks. Offensively, Oakland is near the bottom in every category. Meanwhile, the Royals have won four of five and the seven runs they scored at this pitcher-friendly venue last night could have easily been 14, as they had multiple runners on in every inning but one. For Luke Hochevar, both his GB rate and xERA trends along with a bunch of pure quality starts suggest there's still something decent here. Hochevar is coming off a gem vs the Blue Jays and prior to that he was throwing another gem vs the Twins through five but ran into trouble in the sixth. He’s getting close and with a 53% groundball rate and a pretty sweet tag to go along with it, he and the Royals offer up all the value in this one. Overlay. Play: Kansas City +136 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
