Yesterday 1 2 0 -1.82 Units
Last 30 Days 43 51 0 -1.52 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 93 113 1 -13.48 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
WASHINGTON –102 over St. Louis
Kyle Lohse has ace-like surface stats after his 2½ months and 91 innings: 2.67 ERA, 1.02 WHIP. The key for him has been pinpoint control. He has walked 18 batters in those 91 frames. While the Dave Duncan Effect might be playing some role in his skill resurrection, Lohse is a poor bet to maintain excellent control over the long haul. In addition, his pitch mix, velocity, and movement are very similar to his career norms and in his career Lohse has a 4.67 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP and a BAA of .282. His “feel-good” story may be coming to an end and a correction in his numbers is forthcoming. Over his past two starts, covering 10.2 frames, Lohse has surrendered 16 hits, eight runs and two jacks and that doesn’t bode well against a Nats club that is seeing beach balls right now. The Nats have won five in a row and have beaten up the Cardinals pitching to the tune of 28 hits and 18 runs over the past two nights. The Cards pen is running on fumes and they have a slew of regulars on the DL, although Matt Holliday is expected to return today. John Lannan is an extreme groundball pitcher and those types always have a chance to win. His GB/LD/FB profile looks like 52%/18%/30% and that has helped Lannan to post outstanding results over his last seven starts. In fact, Lannan has allowed two runs or less in six of those seven starts and has allowed one run or less in four straight. Hot vs cold both at the plate and on the hill gets the call. Play: Washington –102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
N.Y. Mets +115 over ATLANTA
The Mets have won nine of 13, including a 6-3 record during this 10-game road trip and the opposing pitcher they’ll see here might be their easiest assignment of them all. Mike Minor has made just four starts this season. He pitched one game in early April, was whacked by the Brewers and subsequently sent down to the minors where he remained until Brandon Beachy got hurt. In three starts since the call-up, Minor has faced the Pirates, Pads and Astros, arguably the three worst offenses in the league. Minor has decent skills but his mind is fragile, as he’s not handled his situation well. He’s been up and down a few times and when he does get a chance he’s not relaxed out there and tends to nibble at the corners for fear of getting whacked. When he does that he gets whacked and now that the Braves aren’t scoring runs, that propensity to nibble is almost a certainty. He’s 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, a .299 BAA and 11 walks in 22 innings. He’s not a good bet pitching for a struggling team laying a price. Meanwhile, R.A. Dickey’s 3-7 record is unjust. Dickey had a mediocre 4.93 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in May, but he also showed solid command, an elite groundball tilt and overall his ERA is now 3.98. His GB % in May was 62% and his BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of write-ups) was 98. Overall, Dickey’s GB/LD/FB profile is rock solid at 54%/15%/31%. The Mets have every advantage here other than home field. Play: N.Y. Mets +115 (Risking 2 units).
MINNESOTA +101 over Chicago
1:05 PM EST. The Twins are another hot team with 10 wins in its last 12 games and they own the White Sox. Incredibly enough, Minnesota has beaten the White Sox in 13 of the last 15 games and there’s a great chance that continues here against the logic defying Mark Buehrle. How this guy keeps winning games is a mystery. Buehrle’s numbers are getting worse but his ERA is getting better. In two June starts his BAA against is .327 but he’s 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA and that just doesn’t align properly. A close look reveals that Buehrle’s BAA on the road is .306 and his BAA in day games is .314. Buehrle has an xERA of 5.22, he’s not striking out as many batters these days and aside from pinpoint control his skills are awful. Nick Blackburn is 5-1 with a 3.04 ERA in his last seven starts versus Chicago, with six ending in Twins victories. Blackburn got tattooed in 1H a season ago but reinvented himself as an extreme GB guy in 2H and that has carried over to this year where he sports a 52%/20%/28% GB/LD/FB profile. In any event, this one is more about playing the surging Twins against Buehrle. Wrong side favored. Play: Minnesota +101 (Risking 2 units).
ARIZONA –1½ +160 over San Francisco
What we know for sure is that the Giants offense is weak, very weak, as they’ve succumbed to a bunch of injuries. The Giants’ leading hitter that’s not on the DL is Cody Ross with a .267 BA. San Fran has a league-low .592 OPS over the past week and while they won the first two games of this series, this one is going to be a lot tougher. First, they’ll face Ian Kennedy, a guy with 26 walks and 75 k’s in 95 frames. Kennedy has a HR/FB rate of 0.9%. He’s also allowed just 77 hits in those 95 innings for a BAA of .223. Kennedy has pitched seven innings or more in five of his last six starts and the D-Backs have won nine of his 14 starts. Ryan Vogelsong has come out of nowhere to post some eye-opening numbers. Mostly a career minor leaguer, Vogelsong at the age of 33 is now 4-1 with an ERA of 1.81 and a BAA of .223. His career numbers prior to this season? 14-23 with an ERA of 5.50 in 42 games started. This season, everything has gone right. He’s made just nine starts with five of those being at pitcher-friendly AT& T Park. His four road starts were at Pittsburgh, Citi Field against the Mets, Wrigley against the Cubs with the wind blowing in (the total was 8 under –120 with Doug Davis going ) and most recently in St. Louis against the injury riddled Cardinals. His skills with runners on have been mediocre at best: average SO rate, 41% GB%, 24 BPV. Collectively, his fantastic surface stats have been helped by a friendly 86% strand rate and low 28% hit rate. Those unsustainable numbers are about to change and it likely begins here in the first real hitter's park he's seen all season. Play: Arizona –1½ +160 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 43 51 0 -1.52 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 93 113 1 -13.48 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
WASHINGTON –102 over St. Louis
Kyle Lohse has ace-like surface stats after his 2½ months and 91 innings: 2.67 ERA, 1.02 WHIP. The key for him has been pinpoint control. He has walked 18 batters in those 91 frames. While the Dave Duncan Effect might be playing some role in his skill resurrection, Lohse is a poor bet to maintain excellent control over the long haul. In addition, his pitch mix, velocity, and movement are very similar to his career norms and in his career Lohse has a 4.67 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP and a BAA of .282. His “feel-good” story may be coming to an end and a correction in his numbers is forthcoming. Over his past two starts, covering 10.2 frames, Lohse has surrendered 16 hits, eight runs and two jacks and that doesn’t bode well against a Nats club that is seeing beach balls right now. The Nats have won five in a row and have beaten up the Cardinals pitching to the tune of 28 hits and 18 runs over the past two nights. The Cards pen is running on fumes and they have a slew of regulars on the DL, although Matt Holliday is expected to return today. John Lannan is an extreme groundball pitcher and those types always have a chance to win. His GB/LD/FB profile looks like 52%/18%/30% and that has helped Lannan to post outstanding results over his last seven starts. In fact, Lannan has allowed two runs or less in six of those seven starts and has allowed one run or less in four straight. Hot vs cold both at the plate and on the hill gets the call. Play: Washington –102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
N.Y. Mets +115 over ATLANTA
The Mets have won nine of 13, including a 6-3 record during this 10-game road trip and the opposing pitcher they’ll see here might be their easiest assignment of them all. Mike Minor has made just four starts this season. He pitched one game in early April, was whacked by the Brewers and subsequently sent down to the minors where he remained until Brandon Beachy got hurt. In three starts since the call-up, Minor has faced the Pirates, Pads and Astros, arguably the three worst offenses in the league. Minor has decent skills but his mind is fragile, as he’s not handled his situation well. He’s been up and down a few times and when he does get a chance he’s not relaxed out there and tends to nibble at the corners for fear of getting whacked. When he does that he gets whacked and now that the Braves aren’t scoring runs, that propensity to nibble is almost a certainty. He’s 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, a .299 BAA and 11 walks in 22 innings. He’s not a good bet pitching for a struggling team laying a price. Meanwhile, R.A. Dickey’s 3-7 record is unjust. Dickey had a mediocre 4.93 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in May, but he also showed solid command, an elite groundball tilt and overall his ERA is now 3.98. His GB % in May was 62% and his BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of write-ups) was 98. Overall, Dickey’s GB/LD/FB profile is rock solid at 54%/15%/31%. The Mets have every advantage here other than home field. Play: N.Y. Mets +115 (Risking 2 units).
MINNESOTA +101 over Chicago
1:05 PM EST. The Twins are another hot team with 10 wins in its last 12 games and they own the White Sox. Incredibly enough, Minnesota has beaten the White Sox in 13 of the last 15 games and there’s a great chance that continues here against the logic defying Mark Buehrle. How this guy keeps winning games is a mystery. Buehrle’s numbers are getting worse but his ERA is getting better. In two June starts his BAA against is .327 but he’s 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA and that just doesn’t align properly. A close look reveals that Buehrle’s BAA on the road is .306 and his BAA in day games is .314. Buehrle has an xERA of 5.22, he’s not striking out as many batters these days and aside from pinpoint control his skills are awful. Nick Blackburn is 5-1 with a 3.04 ERA in his last seven starts versus Chicago, with six ending in Twins victories. Blackburn got tattooed in 1H a season ago but reinvented himself as an extreme GB guy in 2H and that has carried over to this year where he sports a 52%/20%/28% GB/LD/FB profile. In any event, this one is more about playing the surging Twins against Buehrle. Wrong side favored. Play: Minnesota +101 (Risking 2 units).
ARIZONA –1½ +160 over San Francisco
What we know for sure is that the Giants offense is weak, very weak, as they’ve succumbed to a bunch of injuries. The Giants’ leading hitter that’s not on the DL is Cody Ross with a .267 BA. San Fran has a league-low .592 OPS over the past week and while they won the first two games of this series, this one is going to be a lot tougher. First, they’ll face Ian Kennedy, a guy with 26 walks and 75 k’s in 95 frames. Kennedy has a HR/FB rate of 0.9%. He’s also allowed just 77 hits in those 95 innings for a BAA of .223. Kennedy has pitched seven innings or more in five of his last six starts and the D-Backs have won nine of his 14 starts. Ryan Vogelsong has come out of nowhere to post some eye-opening numbers. Mostly a career minor leaguer, Vogelsong at the age of 33 is now 4-1 with an ERA of 1.81 and a BAA of .223. His career numbers prior to this season? 14-23 with an ERA of 5.50 in 42 games started. This season, everything has gone right. He’s made just nine starts with five of those being at pitcher-friendly AT& T Park. His four road starts were at Pittsburgh, Citi Field against the Mets, Wrigley against the Cubs with the wind blowing in (the total was 8 under –120 with Doug Davis going ) and most recently in St. Louis against the injury riddled Cardinals. His skills with runners on have been mediocre at best: average SO rate, 41% GB%, 24 BPV. Collectively, his fantastic surface stats have been helped by a friendly 86% strand rate and low 28% hit rate. Those unsustainable numbers are about to change and it likely begins here in the first real hitter's park he's seen all season. Play: Arizona –1½ +160 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
your capping has been much better than your record shows. Disgusting.
