Is my winning streak just luck? Is my losing streak just bad luck?

Here's some sharp advice on how to discover whether a losing streak is bad luck, or if a winning streak is good luck.

First let me explain the math a little.
Statistics have shown that the closing line is the sharpest line.

For example if the opening line is -6 -110 on a game, and the closing line is -10 -110; the -10 line is the one that has been statistically proven to be 50% so if you got the game at -6 you most likely got value. This is not just my opinion studies have been done by pinnacle sportsbook which prove this.

So on a losing streak lets say the lines you got beat the closing line 70-90% of the time. One can come to the conclusion that they've been unlucky, and that eventually that capper will end up back in the black.

The same can be applied to winning streak. If a capper has won 10 in a row but failed to beat the closing line in most of those games, he is getting lucky and will eventually be a loser if his trend of not beating the closing line continues.

I keep track of all closing lines in my rotation guide on all sports, it's a good weapon for capping, and plays a huge role in how I cap my games.

This is also good knowledge to have as a follower, when following picks, however with a small sample size, it is still very possible that a capper can hit 10 in a row and beat the closing line too and just be lucky, but it is less likely.

It offers peace of mind as a capper when on a losing streak, cause one knows if they continue to beat the closing line, they are capping correctly and will eventually end up back in the black.

-Chazz-

Luck is the residue of design.

I like the way you think. Totally, agree that being good is much better than being lucky and you have to prove it to yourself by tracking methods that you were good and not just lucky.

I like to think capping as a mental pendulum.

If you are good to begin with, your confidence about your capping and selecting methods grows with every win.
Once you start losing a few games in a row, whether it was a fluke or just poor capping, the confidence withers away and games in the future become that more difficult to win because you start to overanalyze.

No matter how many statistics you throw at certain games, luck does come into play. No more than ever with so much parity in all the professional leagues.