Yesterday 2 2 0 +0.02 Units
Last 30 Days 44 51 0 +0.50 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 95 115 1 -13.46 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Pittsburgh +134 over CLEVELAND
Remember not too long ago when the Indians had the top OPS in the AL? Those days are long gone. Cleveland has averaged just 3.0 RPG while posting a batting line of .216/.280/.333 (.612 OPS) since May 18. The Indians have been shut out seven times in that stretch. In the heart of its spring run that had everyone believing Cleveland was for real, they went 9-3 in a stretch on one-run games. And back then, 80% of their rotation was outperforming their skills. Things have turned for the Indians, and the end of the struggle is not in sight. Their neighbor to the east is trending the other way. The Pirates pitching has led the team to a 15-10 record in its last 25 games. Over that stretch, Pitt has posted a nifty 2.48 ERA. Over their last seven games, the Pirates have allowed more than two runs just twice. Don't look for that trend to hit a wall against the slumping Indians. Furthermore, the Pirates are two games above .500 this late in the season for the first time in probably close to 15 years. These guys love coming to the park and the point is they are in a great frame of mind while the Indians are not. Josh Tomlin had a nice 3.03 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in May, but those surface stats did not come with exciting skills. With a 36%/22%/42% GB/LD/FB profile in May, along with a very low 21% hit rate and a low strikeout rate, Tomlin is a huge risk laying a tag with a team that can’t score. Kevin Correia comes with risk too but he’s a groundball pitcher (47%/15%/38% - GB/LD/FB) with elite command (19 walks in 89 frames) and that’s why these types of pitchers win games. Play: Pittsburgh +134 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +122 over BOSTON
Since May 1, the Red Sox are 28-12, averaging 6.1 RPG on the strength of an .845 OPS so when they’re a small price at home, that’s telling us something. What it’s telling us is that the books give the Crew a huge shot here. The Red Sox welcomed John Lackey back to their rotation on June 5, and Lackey pitched good enough to win and we use that term loosely considering the opposition (an A's team batting Conor Jackson cleanup) and that Lackey walked as many as he struck out (two). He followed that up with a win over the Blue Jays but he had a 4-0 after three innings and a 12-2 lead after five. Now he returns to Fenway where he’s posted an ERA of 8.27 in four starts with a BAA of .321. He’s also walked 11 and struck out eight in 20.2 home frames. In night games, Lackey is 0-4 with an ERA of 8.46 and both his games since he returned were day games. At 16M a year and without a reliable fourth or fifth starter, the Red Sox will give him another shot but come playoff time or pennant race time, you won’t see him anywhere near the mound. John Lackey is an “old” 32-yrs of age with a ton of miles on his arm and he will be scored upon tonight. Meanwhile Shawn Marcum knows Fenway well and has always pitched well here. In 38.1 career IP at Fenway, Marcum owns a 3.52 ERA. He also has excellent numbers against Boston hitters (.638 OPS, 21% SO rate) in many past meetings. It's not everybody that can thrive in the majors with an upper 80's fastball, but thanks to a six-pitch arsenal and an uncanny ability to work both sides of the plate, Marcum has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. Play: Milwaukee +122 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Yankees –1½ +104 over CHICAGO
2:20 PM EST. Wow, where do we start? First, a trip to historic Wrigley, a place the Yanks haven’t visited since 2003, will surely jack up the Yankees in much the same way a series with the Red Sox does. Joe Girardi is from Illinois and played with the Cubs from 1989-92, and again from 2000-02. He’ll have plenty of friends and family in the yard and the Yanks players know how much he wants these wins. The bludgeoning Yanks offense (#1 overall with an .800 OPS and 103 HR) has scored 51 runs while batting .336 with 13 jacks and a .570 slugging percentage in its last seven games - a 6-1 stretch at home. Against lefties, they’re even more deadly, as they have won six of eight games against southpaws on the road and will face a southpaw stiff here in Doug Davis. Davis hasn’t had a WHIP under 1.50 in six straight years and this year it’s an ugly 1.86. Putting Yankees on base is bad strategy and that’s precisely what is going to happen here. It’s just a matter of how many are on base when someone goes yard. The Cubbies are 0-6 when Davis starts and he’s walked 17 batters in his last 19 innings. Here’s what Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano said prior to this series on Jeter not playing,” I'm not happy my boy's not playing," Soriano told the Cubs' official website. "I was hoping he could have 2,999 hits and get 3,000 here and I can see it. I wanted to see 3,000 here in Chicago." Are you kidding? Who says that? Most players would say, we DON’T want it to happen here. We’ll walk him before that happens. Translation: We’re gonna watch while the Yanks kick our ass. The Cubbies have won eight games in 24 tries at home vs righties and they’ll face one here in Freddy Garcia. Garcia is 4-0 with a 1.47 ERA in six career starts against the Cubs and his career 21 interleague victories are tied for third-most all-time. Let the bashing begin. Play: N.Y. Yankees –1½ +104 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +118 over COLORADO
The Rockies have lost Jason Hammel’s last eight starts. That’s a big problem because when a pitcher can’t get a win (his last win came on April 30), he starts nibbling, he’s fragile and he’s very beatable. To add to that misery, Hammel is not even that good to begin with. Hammel can’t get lefties out and over his last three starts he has a strand percentage of 82%. That’s unsustainable and the result is an xERA of 7.33. Hammel has a career opponent OPS of .855 with runners on so it’s only a matter of time before a whole bunch of them start crossing the plate. In those aforementioned last three starts, Hammel faced the Dodgers twice and Giants once and two of those three games were in San Fran and L.A. He walked seven and struck out seven and the Rocks lost all three by a combined score of 20-9. What little confidence he had is shot. The Tigers come in here winners of 13 of their past 18 games. Rick Porcello is a GB pitcher and has maintained a low line-drive % of 15% his entire career. He’s not dazzling but he’s consistently good with pinpoint control, an ERA of 3.61 and a 1.17 WHIP over the past month. Incidentally, Jason Hammel was removed from his last start with a still back (at least that’s what he claimed) and that only adds to the Tigers appeal. Play: Detroit +118 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 44 51 0 +0.50 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 95 115 1 -13.46 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Pittsburgh +134 over CLEVELAND
Remember not too long ago when the Indians had the top OPS in the AL? Those days are long gone. Cleveland has averaged just 3.0 RPG while posting a batting line of .216/.280/.333 (.612 OPS) since May 18. The Indians have been shut out seven times in that stretch. In the heart of its spring run that had everyone believing Cleveland was for real, they went 9-3 in a stretch on one-run games. And back then, 80% of their rotation was outperforming their skills. Things have turned for the Indians, and the end of the struggle is not in sight. Their neighbor to the east is trending the other way. The Pirates pitching has led the team to a 15-10 record in its last 25 games. Over that stretch, Pitt has posted a nifty 2.48 ERA. Over their last seven games, the Pirates have allowed more than two runs just twice. Don't look for that trend to hit a wall against the slumping Indians. Furthermore, the Pirates are two games above .500 this late in the season for the first time in probably close to 15 years. These guys love coming to the park and the point is they are in a great frame of mind while the Indians are not. Josh Tomlin had a nice 3.03 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in May, but those surface stats did not come with exciting skills. With a 36%/22%/42% GB/LD/FB profile in May, along with a very low 21% hit rate and a low strikeout rate, Tomlin is a huge risk laying a tag with a team that can’t score. Kevin Correia comes with risk too but he’s a groundball pitcher (47%/15%/38% - GB/LD/FB) with elite command (19 walks in 89 frames) and that’s why these types of pitchers win games. Play: Pittsburgh +134 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +122 over BOSTON
Since May 1, the Red Sox are 28-12, averaging 6.1 RPG on the strength of an .845 OPS so when they’re a small price at home, that’s telling us something. What it’s telling us is that the books give the Crew a huge shot here. The Red Sox welcomed John Lackey back to their rotation on June 5, and Lackey pitched good enough to win and we use that term loosely considering the opposition (an A's team batting Conor Jackson cleanup) and that Lackey walked as many as he struck out (two). He followed that up with a win over the Blue Jays but he had a 4-0 after three innings and a 12-2 lead after five. Now he returns to Fenway where he’s posted an ERA of 8.27 in four starts with a BAA of .321. He’s also walked 11 and struck out eight in 20.2 home frames. In night games, Lackey is 0-4 with an ERA of 8.46 and both his games since he returned were day games. At 16M a year and without a reliable fourth or fifth starter, the Red Sox will give him another shot but come playoff time or pennant race time, you won’t see him anywhere near the mound. John Lackey is an “old” 32-yrs of age with a ton of miles on his arm and he will be scored upon tonight. Meanwhile Shawn Marcum knows Fenway well and has always pitched well here. In 38.1 career IP at Fenway, Marcum owns a 3.52 ERA. He also has excellent numbers against Boston hitters (.638 OPS, 21% SO rate) in many past meetings. It's not everybody that can thrive in the majors with an upper 80's fastball, but thanks to a six-pitch arsenal and an uncanny ability to work both sides of the plate, Marcum has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. Play: Milwaukee +122 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Yankees –1½ +104 over CHICAGO
2:20 PM EST. Wow, where do we start? First, a trip to historic Wrigley, a place the Yanks haven’t visited since 2003, will surely jack up the Yankees in much the same way a series with the Red Sox does. Joe Girardi is from Illinois and played with the Cubs from 1989-92, and again from 2000-02. He’ll have plenty of friends and family in the yard and the Yanks players know how much he wants these wins. The bludgeoning Yanks offense (#1 overall with an .800 OPS and 103 HR) has scored 51 runs while batting .336 with 13 jacks and a .570 slugging percentage in its last seven games - a 6-1 stretch at home. Against lefties, they’re even more deadly, as they have won six of eight games against southpaws on the road and will face a southpaw stiff here in Doug Davis. Davis hasn’t had a WHIP under 1.50 in six straight years and this year it’s an ugly 1.86. Putting Yankees on base is bad strategy and that’s precisely what is going to happen here. It’s just a matter of how many are on base when someone goes yard. The Cubbies are 0-6 when Davis starts and he’s walked 17 batters in his last 19 innings. Here’s what Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano said prior to this series on Jeter not playing,” I'm not happy my boy's not playing," Soriano told the Cubs' official website. "I was hoping he could have 2,999 hits and get 3,000 here and I can see it. I wanted to see 3,000 here in Chicago." Are you kidding? Who says that? Most players would say, we DON’T want it to happen here. We’ll walk him before that happens. Translation: We’re gonna watch while the Yanks kick our ass. The Cubbies have won eight games in 24 tries at home vs righties and they’ll face one here in Freddy Garcia. Garcia is 4-0 with a 1.47 ERA in six career starts against the Cubs and his career 21 interleague victories are tied for third-most all-time. Let the bashing begin. Play: N.Y. Yankees –1½ +104 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +118 over COLORADO
The Rockies have lost Jason Hammel’s last eight starts. That’s a big problem because when a pitcher can’t get a win (his last win came on April 30), he starts nibbling, he’s fragile and he’s very beatable. To add to that misery, Hammel is not even that good to begin with. Hammel can’t get lefties out and over his last three starts he has a strand percentage of 82%. That’s unsustainable and the result is an xERA of 7.33. Hammel has a career opponent OPS of .855 with runners on so it’s only a matter of time before a whole bunch of them start crossing the plate. In those aforementioned last three starts, Hammel faced the Dodgers twice and Giants once and two of those three games were in San Fran and L.A. He walked seven and struck out seven and the Rocks lost all three by a combined score of 20-9. What little confidence he had is shot. The Tigers come in here winners of 13 of their past 18 games. Rick Porcello is a GB pitcher and has maintained a low line-drive % of 15% his entire career. He’s not dazzling but he’s consistently good with pinpoint control, an ERA of 3.61 and a 1.17 WHIP over the past month. Incidentally, Jason Hammel was removed from his last start with a still back (at least that’s what he claimed) and that only adds to the Tigers appeal. Play: Detroit +118 (Risking 2 units).
