Yesterday 1 2 0 -1.42 Units
Last 30 Days 42 54 0 -11.14 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 97 122 1 -22.84 Units
Everything that could go wrong, has gone wrong. Let's see if we can turn this thing around.
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Colorado +110 over CLEVELAND
Juan Nicasio has made four starts since filling in for Jorge De La Rosa and he just might be here to stay. Nicasio has a solid three-pitch mix that includes a 90-95 mph fastball that tops out at 97 mph, a slider and a much-improved change-up. Nicasio had a breakout season in 2010. In 28 starts in the hitter-friendly CAL, Nicasio was 12-10 with a 3.91 ERA. Even more impressive was his strikeout to walk ratio. In 177 IP Nicasio walked only 31 while striking out 171. Nicasio is a strike-throwing machine and hasn’t missed a beat to start 2011. In nine Double-A starts he went 5-1 with a 2.22 ERA with 10 BB/63 K in 56.2 IP. In his four starts for the Rockies he’s struck out 18 in 24 IP while walking just five. No team in the AL has struck out more times than the Indians over the last 20 games and that bodes well for Nicasio. Fausto Carmona has given up four runs or more in seven straight starts. In three June starts he has posted an ERA of 8.22 and a WHIP of 1.89. Overall the Indians have lost five of Carmona’s last six starts and in 15 starts this season, Carmona has four wins. Nothing here to like about Carmona or the Indians laying a price against this under the radar rookie. Play: Colorado +110 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Yankees +112 over CINCINNATI
The Reds won once over the weekend against the Blue Jays but what is most disturbing is the four runs they scored in that three-game set. In fact, Cinci has scored just 13 runs in six interleague games and they’re going to have to break out if they’re going to beat the Yanks. The Yankees .901 OPS over the last week is tops in baseball. They’ve scored nine times or more in five of their past 10 games and they’re 5-1 over their past six games since Derek Jeter went down. Johnny Cueto has put up some great stats this year in just eight starts after coming off the DL. However, a close look reveals that he’s only made three home starts against the Pirates, Dodgers and Cards and his five road starts were at L.A., S.F., Atlanta, Philly, and at Wrigley with the wind blowing in. There are perhaps two challenging starts in that group (in Philly and at home to the Cards) and Cueto was ok in both but certainly not dominating (six runs in 13 innings). The Yanks should thrive in this park against Cueto or anyone else the Reds throw out there. Ivan Nova’s 54% groundball rate is key at this park. The kid is getting better with each start and his confidence is growing. Nova has to throw strikes or he’ll get himself into trouble but with 23 runs of support in his last two games and with a rare tag on the Yankees, we’ll gladly step in. Play: N.Y. Yankees +112 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +110 over ATLANTA
Atlanta has a league-low .219 BA this month with a league-high 142 strikeouts. Atlanta’s .635 OPS against lefties is 29th in the majors and they’ll be facing a good one here in Ricky Romero. Romero’s 50%+ GB% and high strikeout rate combo is extremely unique. Among starters age 26 or younger, only Jaime Garcia has a similar profile. Romero’s 3.01 ERA is well deserved and he should have nothing but success at this park against the Braves. Also note that Chipper Jones may see only limited action, potentially just pinch-hitting, during this series as he battles a groin injury. Tim Hudson’s age and innings pitched could be catching up to him, as he begins to fade noticeably. He’s allowed five runs or more in three of his last seven starts and the teams he faced over that stretch were the Astros, Mets (twice), Padres, Angels, Philly (at Fulton County) and Washington. The Braves won two of those games. Hudson’s ERA in June is 5.79, his strikeout rate is down and he’s quite simply an overvalued pitcher at the age of 35. Play: Toronto +110 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 42 54 0 -11.14 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 97 122 1 -22.84 Units
Everything that could go wrong, has gone wrong. Let's see if we can turn this thing around.
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Colorado +110 over CLEVELAND
Juan Nicasio has made four starts since filling in for Jorge De La Rosa and he just might be here to stay. Nicasio has a solid three-pitch mix that includes a 90-95 mph fastball that tops out at 97 mph, a slider and a much-improved change-up. Nicasio had a breakout season in 2010. In 28 starts in the hitter-friendly CAL, Nicasio was 12-10 with a 3.91 ERA. Even more impressive was his strikeout to walk ratio. In 177 IP Nicasio walked only 31 while striking out 171. Nicasio is a strike-throwing machine and hasn’t missed a beat to start 2011. In nine Double-A starts he went 5-1 with a 2.22 ERA with 10 BB/63 K in 56.2 IP. In his four starts for the Rockies he’s struck out 18 in 24 IP while walking just five. No team in the AL has struck out more times than the Indians over the last 20 games and that bodes well for Nicasio. Fausto Carmona has given up four runs or more in seven straight starts. In three June starts he has posted an ERA of 8.22 and a WHIP of 1.89. Overall the Indians have lost five of Carmona’s last six starts and in 15 starts this season, Carmona has four wins. Nothing here to like about Carmona or the Indians laying a price against this under the radar rookie. Play: Colorado +110 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Yankees +112 over CINCINNATI
The Reds won once over the weekend against the Blue Jays but what is most disturbing is the four runs they scored in that three-game set. In fact, Cinci has scored just 13 runs in six interleague games and they’re going to have to break out if they’re going to beat the Yanks. The Yankees .901 OPS over the last week is tops in baseball. They’ve scored nine times or more in five of their past 10 games and they’re 5-1 over their past six games since Derek Jeter went down. Johnny Cueto has put up some great stats this year in just eight starts after coming off the DL. However, a close look reveals that he’s only made three home starts against the Pirates, Dodgers and Cards and his five road starts were at L.A., S.F., Atlanta, Philly, and at Wrigley with the wind blowing in. There are perhaps two challenging starts in that group (in Philly and at home to the Cards) and Cueto was ok in both but certainly not dominating (six runs in 13 innings). The Yanks should thrive in this park against Cueto or anyone else the Reds throw out there. Ivan Nova’s 54% groundball rate is key at this park. The kid is getting better with each start and his confidence is growing. Nova has to throw strikes or he’ll get himself into trouble but with 23 runs of support in his last two games and with a rare tag on the Yankees, we’ll gladly step in. Play: N.Y. Yankees +112 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +110 over ATLANTA
Atlanta has a league-low .219 BA this month with a league-high 142 strikeouts. Atlanta’s .635 OPS against lefties is 29th in the majors and they’ll be facing a good one here in Ricky Romero. Romero’s 50%+ GB% and high strikeout rate combo is extremely unique. Among starters age 26 or younger, only Jaime Garcia has a similar profile. Romero’s 3.01 ERA is well deserved and he should have nothing but success at this park against the Braves. Also note that Chipper Jones may see only limited action, potentially just pinch-hitting, during this series as he battles a groin injury. Tim Hudson’s age and innings pitched could be catching up to him, as he begins to fade noticeably. He’s allowed five runs or more in three of his last seven starts and the teams he faced over that stretch were the Astros, Mets (twice), Padres, Angels, Philly (at Fulton County) and Washington. The Braves won two of those games. Hudson’s ERA in June is 5.79, his strikeout rate is down and he’s quite simply an overvalued pitcher at the age of 35. Play: Toronto +110 (Risking 2 units).
