MLB
Monday, June 20
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MLB run report: This week's best betting trends
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Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in Major League Baseball.
HOT TEAM: Minnesota Twins
THIS SEASON: 31-39
LAST WEEK: 5-0
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: At the Giants for three, at the Brewers for three.
THE SKINNY: Well, well, well, it took three months, but the Minnesota Twins we all know -- the scrappy, never-say-die, do-what-it-takes-to-win-on-a-small-budget crew that Ron Gardenhire has established as a league power -- have finally arrived.
Listen, they may not have enough to challenge the rest of the way, but they’re still a well-balanced, well-managed club, and as long as they pitch this way, they will have great value moving forward. In five victories last week, they allowed one run or less in three of them. What’s more, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn posted shutouts.
They are still offensively challenged -- keep in mind, Danny Valencia was the RBI leader through Sunday with 32 -- but under Gardenhire, you always know you have a team that knows how to play, and will get the most out of whatever lineup is thrown together. How did they have the start they had then? Who cares. Because even with injuries still mounting, Minnesota is back to playing Twins Baseball, and it might be worthwhile to have them on your radar.
COLD TEAM: Florida Marlins
THIS SEASON: 32-40
LAST WEEK: 0-7
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to the Angels for three, home to the Mariners for three.
THE SKINNY: We try to stray from the obvious here, but the Marlins are just too grand a disaster to not fade. They can’t hit. They can’t pitch. And leading into Monday’s series opener with Anaheim, they had lost 10 in a row.
It cost the hitting coach a job. It then cost a manager a job. In the end, perhaps John Mallee, who was fired, and Edwin Rodriguez, who resigned, might be better off because this team just isn’t that good. Consider that since June 12, the Marlins have been held to one run or less in five games.
The schedule toughened up in June, and the Marlins just don’t have the horses to compete with the likes of Milwaukee, Arizona, Atlanta and Philadelphia, who all had their way with them.
How bad is it? Through Sunday, Florida is 1-17 in June. And it’s tough to see an end in sight to this mess. As the losing drags on, their value is dipping, certainly. But if you’re in the market for a few, quick wins -- regardless of price -- fading Florida seems a safe option.
OVER TEAM: Milwaukee Brewers
O/U THIS SEASON: 35-34-4
O/U LAST WEEK: 5-2
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to the Rays for three, home to the Twins for three.
THE SKINNY: Milwaukee ran into a bit of a rough patch at Chicago and Boston last week, but it was more pitching related, as the Brewers’ bats continue to bash. Entering Monday’s series opener vs. Tampa Bay, the Brewers have scored five or more runs eight times in June.
The names you’d expect here are the ones coming through. Ryan Braun ended Sunday with a .311 average, 15 home runs, and 51 RBIs. And Prince Fielder was at .300, 19 and 60. But it’s the pitching that’s going to carry you through to more "overs."
The statistics don’t look all bad, with Shaun Marcum and his 84 strikeouts, and Yovani Gallardo and his eight wins, but lately, it just isn’t working. Boston, in three games, threw up 24 runs on the Brewers. And in the series before that, the Cubs rang up 22 in four games.
Eventually, the staff will probably correct itself, the schedule will lighten up a bit, and the pitching will go back to normal. Until then, the Brewers are more than worth their weight in “over” land.
UNDER TEAM: Toronto Blue Jays
O/U THIS SEASON: 37-32-3
O/U LAST WEEK: 1-5
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: At the Braves for three, at the Cardinals for three.
THE SKINNY: Toronto may have shown late last week that interleague play may be a thorn in its side. Because as deep and as talented as the Blue Jays lineup is, they did not take well to seeing unfamiliar pitching. In a three-game series with Cincinnati that ended Sunday, the Blue Jays scored eight runs ... total.
With the pitcher batting in National League ballparks, it seems this American League-designed lineup might just struggle. Which is exactly why you should monitor them this week, as the Blue Jays hit Atlanta and St. Louis. Perhaps some more “unders” are on the horizon.
And let’s face it, even before interleague resurfaced, the Blue Jays weren’t lighting up the scoreboards. In three games vs. Baltimore leading up to the Reds series, they only scored 13 runs in three games. Jose Bautista has been all-world again, ending Sunday with a .338 average, 21 homers and 46 RBIs. But none of the other regulars are over .300, and Yunel Escobar, who was off to a career start, has cooled significantly.
The dog days appear to have arrived a bit early for Toronto. Keep the Blue Jays in mind, when thinking “unders.”
