3 Tuesday w/anaysis

sherwood · Jun 21, 2011

Yesterday 1 1 0 +0.20 Units
Last 30 Days 43 51 0 -2.74 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 99 123 1 -20.44 Units

All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Colorado/CLEVELAND under 8½
Since coming off the DL, Mitch Talbot has started seven games and has faced the L.A. Angels, Red Sox twice, the Yanks, Texas, Toronto and the Tigers. Search all day long and you won’t find a pitcher in the majors that has had a tougher stretch of games than the aforementioned seven. In five of those seven games, Talbot allowed two runs or less so his 5.02 ERA is the result of on e horrible start and one bad start. Now he gets a break when he faces a Rockies offense that has been unproductive on the road, averaging 3.5 RPG with a .675 OPS. If Talbot can keep his walks down he has the ability to be successful and has been very successful in five of seven starts. Cleveland’s offense has been struggling with a .625 June OPS, while barely surpassing 3.0 RPG for the month and things don’t get any easier here. Jhoulys Chacin’s brilliant rookie campaign shows skill set built for long-term success, even in Coors. He’s posted some amazing numbers this year that includes a 60% groundball rate, 81 k’s in 93 IP, a 2.81 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. The Indians are going to be hard pressed to score anything and the Rocks likely aren’t going to be much better. Play: Colorado/Cleveland under 8½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

Chicago +128 over CHICAGO
Mark Buehrle’s numbers just don’t align with his poor skills and it’s just not possible for him to keep pitching the way he does and not get whacked once every three games. Here’s a guy that strikes out one batter every two innings. He is not a groundball pitcher and his split between FB’s and GB’s are dead even at 41%. Over the past month his strand rate has been 82% and therein explains the reason for his success. Fact is, Buehrle’s xERA is 4.97. He’s faced a slew of poor offensive teams that include the A’s (twice), Twins, M’s and Dodgers over the last four weeks and Buehrle has gone nine straight games allowing three runs or less. Guys like Justin Verlander do that, guys like Mark Buehrle do not and it’s just a matter of time before a whole string of disaster starts come his way. Matt Garza is the complete opposite in that he has outstanding skills and a whole lot of nothing to show for it. Garza’s ERA is 4.14. Ask 30 managers which pitcher they’d rather have throwing for them tonight and 30 (including Ozzie Guillen) would say Garza. Garza has 78 K’s and 29 walks in 72 innings pitched. He also has a strong GB/FB profile of 49%/28% but since coming off the DL on June 7, his GB profile is even stronger at 56%. The Cubbies came in here last night and won the opener after they had a decent series against the Yankees with the exception of the final three innings on Sunday. The South Side with Buehrle on the hill is a marriage that’s going to get turbulent very soon. Play: Chicago Cubs +128 (Risking 2 units).

MILWAUKEE –1½ +172 over Tampa Bay
Laying 1½-runs at home with NL rules is definitely risky but the price and pitching matchup adds to the appeal. If you prefer, you can lay the 25 cents on the Brewers and that wouldn’t be a bad bet either. First, the Brewers are 20-7 at home against right-handed starters and Jeremy Hellickson’s numbers are in for a huge regression. There is nothing about his skill set that makes his 3.09 ERA believable. His strikeout rate is average (54 in 84 IP) and so his BB/K ratio. His GB/FB profile is 35%/46% and over the last month it’s even worse at 31%/53%. His xERA is 4.80 and when a guy’s xERA is almost two runs higher than his actual ERA a correction is inevitable. His 23% hit rate is the reason that his ERA is so low but that, too, is in for a big correction. Hellickson is ripe to get whacked and the Brew Crew is the perfect setup for that to occur. Meanwhile Zack Greinke has an ERA of 5.23 but his xERA is 2.77. Can you name a pitcher with a larger ERA/xERA differential than Greinke? Greinke has fallen victim to a dramatically inflated hit % and deflated strand rate. When these correct themselves - and they will - Greinke's xERA tells us that the skills are still there. Greinke's control has never been better. While we expect that to rise ever so slightly, control is often the toughest thing to get back following an injury. Evidently not for Greinke. Check out that strikeout rate of 70 k’s in 53 IP. While we should expect some regression here, this is proof positive that Greinke is pitching better than his 5.23 ERA indicates. That command and skills are truly elite, as they blow away Greinke's standards set in his 2009 Cy Young season. That's not easy to do. It's easy to see that Greinke's sole blemish is his ability to keep the ball in the yard, as his hr/f and hr/9 are nearly double that of his 2010 levels. Once those numbers regress, and they will too, you will wish you had wagered on Greinke when the price was low and you had the chance. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +172 (Risking 2 units).

straightcash · Jun 21, 2011

why do mention the expected ERAs of everyone but Talbot? His xFIP is in the high 4s, one of the highest in the league among starters. The Rockies offense is right up there in the group you mentioned. You argue that Hellickson, Greinke, Garza are all due for regressions but you don't think a rookie pitcher with a 2.86 ERA is due for one? You seem to be handpicking your reasons based on the side you want to bet

you also only mention the starting pitching equation in the two other matchups. there are equalizers in both, no would question that garza is the better pitcher but that isn't a reason to bet on a team. why do you leave out the offenses where the white sox have a huge advantage?

brewers game you are doing the same thing, we all know Greinke is the better pitcher that's no secret, that doesn't mean you're getting the right price to bet the brewers

sherwood · Jun 21, 2011

straightcash said:
why do mention the expected ERAs of everyone but Talbot? His xFIP is in the high 4s, one of the highest in the league among starters. The Rockies offense is right up there in the group you mentioned.

I don't mention it because he's only started seven games and it's too small a sample. He's only threw two bad games out of seven against some of the best offenses in the league. He's pitching better than his numbers and that's what I mention.

The Rockies offense is right up there in the group you mentioned?
Uh, don't think so Bro. They're amongst the worst on the road.

straightcash · Jun 21, 2011

sherwood said:
I don't mention it because he's only started seven games and it's too small a sample. He's only threw two bad games out of seven against some of the best offenses in the league. He's pitching better than his numbers and that's what I mention.

Wait you start by saying too small a sample and then you mention how well he's pitched in those games. You can't have it both ways on sample size. What about Chacin's sample size? And Talbot hasn't pitched that well in those games, his BB/9 is through the roof. xFIP is independent of the noise.

The Rockies offense is right up there in the group you mentioned?
Uh, don't think so Bro. They're amongst the worst on the road.

apparently you value 1 thing and 1 thing only and that is performance so far this year. But i see you mention recent performance a ton, Rockies offense is top 5 in OPS so far in june. and if they actually do play poorly on the road, what makes you think the linesmakers have ignored this when making their line?

sherwood · Jun 21, 2011

straightcash said:
Wait you start by saying too small a sample and then you mention how well he's pitched in those games. You can't have it both ways on sample size. What about Chacin's sample size? And Talbot hasn't pitched that well in those games, his BB/9 is through the roof. xFIP is independent of the noise.

apparently you value 1 thing and 1 thing only and that is performance so far this year. But i see you mention recent performance a ton, Rockies offense is top 5 in OPS so far in june. and if they actually do play poorly on the road, what makes you think the linesmakers have ignored this when making their line?

One could go on and on about what is relevant and what is not. You can handicap games any way you choose. If I included all factors in these write-ups they'd be five paragraphs long and nobody wants to read all that crap.

I point out what is revelant to MY choice, not yours. If you have an opinion on a game write it up or post it with or without reasons. Did you bet the Indians/Tribe over? What you want to hear or read about is of no concern of mine. You can disagree with me if you like, that's what these forums are about but instead of telling me what I'm leaving out, a more appropriate response would be something like this:
Sherwood, I disagree with your analysis on the Tribe/Rocks. Talbot has allowed....etc, etc, etc.... and the Rocks offense is hot in June...
I'm going over in this game.

BTW, what was the final?

DimmmIsBack · Jun 21, 2011

Damn Sherwood I dont know SHIT about baseball but I just copied all your picks and were looking goooooooooood son! I put 200 on Philies and I was shitting in my pants till a nuke hit the stadium and they put 8 runs!! I LOVE YOU MAN!

straightcash · Jun 21, 2011

sherwood said:
You can disagree with me if you like, that's what these forums are about but instead of telling me what I'm leaving out, a more appropriate response would be something like this:
Sherwood, I disagree with your analysis on the Tribe/Rocks. Talbot has allowed....etc, etc, etc.... and the Rocks offense is hot in June...

I did exactly that, I pointed that out chacin is likely to regress, rockies offense is way better than you are giving them credit, and that talbot is about as bad as his numbers say(xFIP).

btw, I had the under. The reason for me betting the under had nothing to do with things like how good or bad the pitchers are or the rockies offense because all of those things are already factored into the line. It is impossible to beat the books by just analyzing a game thoroughly(especially with data that is already in the line) and picking a side. You need to figure out the true line and only bet if you can get a better price than the true line. All that data needs to be quantified, you can't just say so and so is a great pitcher vs a bad offense its a good side. That isn't going to beat the books.

So why did I bother disagreeing? Because for the reasons I pointed out your analysis was pretty flawed to begin with(irrespective of the fact thats its all irrelevant anyway if you are trying to make money doing this). Why did I bet the under? A confluence of indicators that told me the market for this game was inefficient and there was value on the under. looks like you did well tonight congrats

DimmmIsBack · Jun 22, 2011

Bro honestly just shut up- it's his thread if you don't like what his write-ups are just fade and keep quiet- or just make your own thread? I can't stand when people have nothing better to do but trash other peoples work. He takes the time to post *which he doesn't have to* and nowhere does it say you have to follow it- so do everyone a favor and open yourself up a thread with your own opinions/thoughts and let it be.

NWPortland · Jun 22, 2011

DimmmIsBack said:
Bro honestly just shut up- it's his thread if you don't like what his write-ups are just fade and keep quiet- or just make your own thread? I can't stand when people have nothing better to do but trash other peoples work. He takes the time to post *which he doesn't have to* and nowhere does it say you have to follow it- so do everyone a favor and open yourself up a thread with your own opinions/thoughts and let it be.

THANK YOU . I have to go quantificate a tall glass of beer after reading all of that guy's posts.

straightcash · Jun 22, 2011

DimmmIsBack said:
Bro honestly just shut up- it's his thread if you don't like what his write-ups are just fade and keep quiet- or just make your own thread? I can't stand when people have nothing better to do but trash other peoples work. He takes the time to post *which he doesn't have to* and nowhere does it say you have to follow it- so do everyone a favor and open yourself up a thread with your own opinions/thoughts and let it be.

it's called discussion. what good is this place if everyone just agreed on everything

ShortBusDriver7 · Jun 22, 2011

cubs were so dumb to not bunt over the lead single in the 8th with the leadoff hitter.

Huckel · Jun 22, 2011

thats cub baseball for ya

sherwood · Jun 22, 2011

straightcash said:
btw, I had the under.

So, you tell me how bad the analysis was how wrong I am about it and that Talbot stinks and the Rocks offense is hot.
Then you bet the under too? Hmmmm..very nice call after the game was final.

straightcash · Jun 22, 2011

sherwood said:
So, you tell me how bad the analysis was how wrong I am about it and that Talbot stinks and the Rocks offense is hot.
Then you bet the under too? Hmmmm..very nice call after the game was final.

did you just completely ignore my post? I think you literally skipped over the last paragraphs. I said that analyzing games like this is useless is you want to make money and isn't a way to pick a side. I do this to make money. but let me just copy and paste cause i said it better the first time...

The reason for me betting the under had nothing to do with things like how good or bad the pitchers are or the rockies offense because all of those things are already factored into the line. It is impossible to beat the books by just analyzing a game thoroughly(especially with data that is already in the line) and picking a side. You need to figure out the true line and only bet if you can get a better price than the true line. All that data needs to be quantified, you can't just say so and so is a great pitcher vs a bad offense its a good side. That isn't going to beat the books.

So why did I bother disagreeing? Because for the reasons I pointed out your analysis was pretty flawed to begin with(irrespective of the fact thats its all irrelevant anyway if you are trying to make money doing this). Why did I bet the under? A confluence of indicators that told me the market for this game was inefficient and there was value on the under. looks like you did well tonight congrats

DimmmIsBack · Jun 22, 2011

This guy probably didn't even bet the under- what he did was follow this thread all day and pray that the game can go over so he can come back and trash this thread again- he reminds me abit of Dwayne Bowe who puts up 5 plays, goes 1-4 and says he's up for the day because he doesn't post his units. smh with some of these people. Nobody really cares what you're saying straightcash- i'd love to see you post up your own plays with units and see how you fair before opening your mouth

sherwood · Jun 22, 2011

Exactly Dimm. Anyone can pick winners when the game is over. Here's a guy who made an argument for the over all day and when the game was final said he bet the under. He didn't say, I like it under too but for different reasons.

Then he goes on to tell me that analyzing games is useless. No, what's useless is picking winners after the game(s) end. Funny thing, I've never lost a game (100%) when the game is final.

Finally, he's telling me, "You need to figure out the true line and only bet if you can get a better price than the true line". That's after writing this, "I pointed that out chacin is likely to regress, rockies offense is way better than you are giving them credit, and that talbot is about as bad as his numbers say(xFIP).....and then saying he bet the under.

Are you f**king kidding me?

I have no problem with guys disagreeing with me at all. Hell, MLink does it all the time but at least he gives a reason and says who he is betting, unlike this jerk.

buffettgambler · Jun 22, 2011

sherwood said:
Exactly Dimm. Anyone can pick winners when the game is over. Here's a guy who made an argument for the over all day and when the game was final said he bet the under. He didn't say, I like it under too but for different reasons.

Then he goes on to tell me that analyzing games is useless. No, what's useless is picking winners after the game(s) end. Funny thing, I've never lost a game (100%) when the game is final.

Finally, he's telling me, "You need to figure out the true line and only bet if you can get a better price than the true line". That's after writing this, "I pointed that out chacin is likely to regress, rockies offense is way better than you are giving them credit, and that talbot is about as bad as his numbers say(xFIP).....and then saying he bet the under.

Are you f**king kidding me?

I have no problem with guys disagreeing with me at all. Hell, MLink does it all the time but at least he gives a reason and says who he is betting, unlike this jerk.

Not sure who straightcash had bet on has relevance. Although it could have been worded differently, I believe the purpose of his posts was to inquire about your quantification methodology and how you decipher and test whether your reasons mentioned in your write-ups are being factored in or ignored by the market. I basically think he wants to know if you are modelling are going on feel derived from your research.

straightcash · Jun 22, 2011

buffettgambler said:
Not sure who straightcash had bet on has relevance. Although it could have been worded differently, I believe the purpose of his posts was to inquire about your quantification methodology and how you decipher and test whether your reasons mentioned in your write-ups are being factored in or ignored by the market. I basically think he wants to know if you are modelling are going on feel derived from your research.

about what I was getting at

Here's a guy who made an argument for the over all day and when the game was final said he bet the under.

If I made bets based on which side had the best qualitative reasoning, I wouldn't be betting

Then he goes on to tell me that analyzing games is useless. No, what's useless is picking winners after the game(s) end. Funny thing, I've never lost a game (100%) when the game is final.

If you're just a casual bettor, I apologize. You are aware of some slightly advanced statistics so I assumed you were doing this to make a profit.

Why are you so focused on me saying I bet the under? Why does that even matter?

sherwood · Jun 22, 2011

straightcash said:
Why are you so focused on me saying I bet the under? Why does that even matter?

It really doesn't matter, one game means absolutely nothing. It was just the way you approached it. BTW, I do it for one reason only..profit and have been doing so for 30 years.

straightcash · Jun 22, 2011

sherwood said:
It really doesn't matter, one game means absolutely nothing. It was just the way you approached it. BTW, I do it for one reason only..profit and have been doing so for 30 years.

Well then I'm quite surprised by your response. Anyways, I'm wondering why do you use predictive stats for pitchers in the cubs and brewers games but ignore them in the indians game? It just makes no sense. How do you decide when to ignore them and when not to?