Yesterday 0 0 0 0.00 Units
Last 30 Days 44 46 0 +10.40 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 102 125 1 -17.00 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Washington +112 over CHICAGO
Despite the fact that Jim Riggleman gave new meaning to “walk-off win” yesterday, we’re not going to allow a manager with a career .445 win % decision to leave get in the way of backing perhaps the hottest combination in baseball in Jordan Zimmerman and the Washington Nationals. Zimmerman has allowed two runs or less in six straight and in eight of his last nine. The one game he allowed more than two, he allowed three. And how about his pitch-count in those games? Zimmerman threw 99, 101, 91, 97, 99, 94, 103 and 89 pitches respectively and he’s gone at least six full in every game. Zimmerman is throwing strike one to almost every hitter and he’s rarely behind in the count. Alex Rios and Juan Pierre are the only two current Chicago players who have ever faced Zimmerman and they have one hit against him in five AB’s (Ramon Castro has faced him twice also but seldom plays). The White Sox have lost Edwin Jackson’s last four starts and they’ve lost eight of his last 10 starts. Jackson has given up 102 hits in 86.2 IP for a BAA of .295. That’s not to say he’s a bad pitcher because he’s not. He has some good skills that include a decent strikeout rate and a GB tilt profile. However, he’s also wickedly inconsistent and is capable of throwing a disaster as much as he’s capable of throwing a gem. Additionally, the South Side has scored three runs or less in six of their last 11 at home and continue to underachieve at the dish. Play: Washington +112 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +101 over KANSAS CITY
There are so many reasons to play the Cubbies here and we’ll start with wagering against Bruce Chen and not having to lay anything. Chen gets activated from the 15-day DL after being sidelined since mid-May with a strained back muscle. He had a 3.69 ERA through seven starts at the time of the injury but his skills suggest he should be avoided. His 5.05 xERA suggests his ERA is likely to rise as his 80% strand-rate and 27% hit rate normalize. Chen has a GB/LD/FB profile of 34%/20%/46% and the Cubbies hit southpaws much better than they hit righties. Furthermore, the Royals have lost five in a row, seven of eight and have just nine wins in their last 30 games. Meanwhile, the Cubbies have won 10 of Ryan Dempster’s last 14 road starts. Dempster has some ugly surface stats: 5.46 ERA, 1.48 WHIP. But his skills are right in line with those he has posted the last few years and some are even better. Dempster has a GB/FB rate of 48%/32%. His xERA is 3.83 and he’s been victimized by a low strand rate of 65%. At one point his ERA was 6.91 with a 58% strand rate and as those numbers begin to correct so has his ERA. Dempster has 88 K’s in 92 IP. His bad numbers provide us with a buy low opportunity and one that should not be missed, especially against a stiff like Chen. Play: Chicago +101 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto –101 over ST. LOUIS
The Cardinals are six games above .500 but have only one series win in their last five and that occurred last weekend when they barely took two of three (they won both games by a run) from the reeling Royals. Prior to that the Cards last series win came against the Cubbies. Jake Westbrook is batting practice out there and if there’s a pitcher that can get the Jays offense rolling again, he’s the guy. Everything about Jake Westbrook says "avoid" right now. His strikeout rate is way down and his walks are way up. His 5.16 ERA is well earned after allowing 97 hits in 82 innings while walking 35 and whiffing just 42. Only the ground balls keep coming but that's not enough, as even those are hit hard. First it was a forearm strain that kept Brandon Morrow out of action for the first three weeks of the season. Then it was his first 10 starts, which produced a 2-4 record with a 5.63 ERA. It's been a disappointing season all-around for a pitcher who many thought ready to take the next step up in 2011. There's nothing wrong with his base - control/strikeout rate/command - it's a carbon copy of the skill set that excited many after 2010. Lots of Ks (72 in 61 IP), a bit too many walks, but enough command to cover. His unlucky hit%/strand% combo, which fed the forecasts for a 2011 surge, has not gotten better, but worse. The effect remains the same: his ERA will rebound closer to his xERA (3.99) and that is an absolute. Even with a 5.63 ERA, Morrow’s skills are approaching elite status and it’s also worth noting that he rarely loses on grass, where the Jays have gone 10-3 in his last 13 starts on grass. Morrow against Westbrook against the Pujols-less Cards laying a penny? Get in line. Play: Toronto –101 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 44 46 0 +10.40 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 102 125 1 -17.00 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Washington +112 over CHICAGO
Despite the fact that Jim Riggleman gave new meaning to “walk-off win” yesterday, we’re not going to allow a manager with a career .445 win % decision to leave get in the way of backing perhaps the hottest combination in baseball in Jordan Zimmerman and the Washington Nationals. Zimmerman has allowed two runs or less in six straight and in eight of his last nine. The one game he allowed more than two, he allowed three. And how about his pitch-count in those games? Zimmerman threw 99, 101, 91, 97, 99, 94, 103 and 89 pitches respectively and he’s gone at least six full in every game. Zimmerman is throwing strike one to almost every hitter and he’s rarely behind in the count. Alex Rios and Juan Pierre are the only two current Chicago players who have ever faced Zimmerman and they have one hit against him in five AB’s (Ramon Castro has faced him twice also but seldom plays). The White Sox have lost Edwin Jackson’s last four starts and they’ve lost eight of his last 10 starts. Jackson has given up 102 hits in 86.2 IP for a BAA of .295. That’s not to say he’s a bad pitcher because he’s not. He has some good skills that include a decent strikeout rate and a GB tilt profile. However, he’s also wickedly inconsistent and is capable of throwing a disaster as much as he’s capable of throwing a gem. Additionally, the South Side has scored three runs or less in six of their last 11 at home and continue to underachieve at the dish. Play: Washington +112 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +101 over KANSAS CITY
There are so many reasons to play the Cubbies here and we’ll start with wagering against Bruce Chen and not having to lay anything. Chen gets activated from the 15-day DL after being sidelined since mid-May with a strained back muscle. He had a 3.69 ERA through seven starts at the time of the injury but his skills suggest he should be avoided. His 5.05 xERA suggests his ERA is likely to rise as his 80% strand-rate and 27% hit rate normalize. Chen has a GB/LD/FB profile of 34%/20%/46% and the Cubbies hit southpaws much better than they hit righties. Furthermore, the Royals have lost five in a row, seven of eight and have just nine wins in their last 30 games. Meanwhile, the Cubbies have won 10 of Ryan Dempster’s last 14 road starts. Dempster has some ugly surface stats: 5.46 ERA, 1.48 WHIP. But his skills are right in line with those he has posted the last few years and some are even better. Dempster has a GB/FB rate of 48%/32%. His xERA is 3.83 and he’s been victimized by a low strand rate of 65%. At one point his ERA was 6.91 with a 58% strand rate and as those numbers begin to correct so has his ERA. Dempster has 88 K’s in 92 IP. His bad numbers provide us with a buy low opportunity and one that should not be missed, especially against a stiff like Chen. Play: Chicago +101 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto –101 over ST. LOUIS
The Cardinals are six games above .500 but have only one series win in their last five and that occurred last weekend when they barely took two of three (they won both games by a run) from the reeling Royals. Prior to that the Cards last series win came against the Cubbies. Jake Westbrook is batting practice out there and if there’s a pitcher that can get the Jays offense rolling again, he’s the guy. Everything about Jake Westbrook says "avoid" right now. His strikeout rate is way down and his walks are way up. His 5.16 ERA is well earned after allowing 97 hits in 82 innings while walking 35 and whiffing just 42. Only the ground balls keep coming but that's not enough, as even those are hit hard. First it was a forearm strain that kept Brandon Morrow out of action for the first three weeks of the season. Then it was his first 10 starts, which produced a 2-4 record with a 5.63 ERA. It's been a disappointing season all-around for a pitcher who many thought ready to take the next step up in 2011. There's nothing wrong with his base - control/strikeout rate/command - it's a carbon copy of the skill set that excited many after 2010. Lots of Ks (72 in 61 IP), a bit too many walks, but enough command to cover. His unlucky hit%/strand% combo, which fed the forecasts for a 2011 surge, has not gotten better, but worse. The effect remains the same: his ERA will rebound closer to his xERA (3.99) and that is an absolute. Even with a 5.63 ERA, Morrow’s skills are approaching elite status and it’s also worth noting that he rarely loses on grass, where the Jays have gone 10-3 in his last 13 starts on grass. Morrow against Westbrook against the Pujols-less Cards laying a penny? Get in line. Play: Toronto –101 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
