Yesterday 3 0 0 +6.26 Units
Last 30 Days 45 44 0 +16.02 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 105 125 1 -10.74 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y. Mets +150 over TEXAS
On paper this one looks like another easy win for the Rangers with Alexi Ogando and his 1.91 home ERA going up against Jonathan Niese. Not so fast. Ogando is a converted outfielder that came up in mid-June last year and pummeled hitters. A closer look though reveals an enviable hit %/strand %/ hr/f trifecta that has carried into this year. There are more warning signs too. Ogando has never pitched more than 72 innings in a season and that includes four minor-league years prior to his call-up last June. This year he’s already thrown 88 innings and he needed intravenous fluids after Sunday’s loss to the Braves. In his last two starts he’s lasted a combined 6.2 innings and his strikeout rate is slowing way down. His BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) over his last eight starts by time through lineup (119, 84, 38) suggests he’s wearing out quicker than earlier in the year. His sub-3.00 ERA is sure to rise once his 22% hit rate and 83% strand rate normalize, so he's got plenty of short-term risk. Finally, his 36%/21%/43% GB/LD/FB/ profile is unfavorable, especially at this park and when you put all these things together Ogando is a big sell high candidate with his unsustainable 1.91 home ERA. Thanks to an arsenal that includes a low 90s fastball, curve, change and cutter (which some have deemed a "slutter"), Niese has recovered nicely after a slow start in April. The xERA suggests that expectations of a sub-4.00 ERA are reasonable. Following his rough month of April, Niese has had an ERA of 3.05 for May/June. Niese has also shown big growth in his strikeout rate over the past two months and a LHP with a solid K rate is an appealing target to be sure. Play: N.Y. Mets +150 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +144 over CHICAGO
Wagering on a hot team is seldom a bad idea. The Nats won again last night in dramatic fashion to push their current run to 12 wins in 13 games. This team can’t wait to get back to the park and a young team that gets on a roll is indeed a dangerous one. Tom Gorzelanny makes his second start since coming off the DL and his first start back was an ugly one. However, Gorzelanny was showing skills growth, with a good strikeout rate (48 K’s in 58 IP), good control (21 BB) and a 67 BPV before being sidelined by elbow inflammation in late May. Skill swings make him a moving target and he’s probably the second best pitcher on the mound today but that doesn’t mean he’ll lose. The South Side has struggled all year vs southpaws with a .234 BA. After a night game that went 14 innings there’s a good chance that Ozzie may be forced to sit A.J Pierzynski and maybe even another 33-yr-old+ regular, as this is a day game after a night game. And then there’s John Danks. Danks received a lot of attention for his slow start and things really fell apart for him in May in which he posted a 6.89 ERA, 1.72 WHIP and a 5.63 xERA. He’s had three great starts in June, posting a 1.23 ERA with 17 K’s, three walks, a 0.95 WHIP and allowing just 18 hits in 22 frames. That said, he faced the D-Backs, M’s and A’s in his last three starts and two of those three teams can’t hit. Don’t rack up his poor start to bad luck. No one thing stands out as the sole cause of his O-7 record. A 31%/74% hit%/strand% are not out of the ordinary, and his xERA was nearly an ERA match. It's not any core skills change either, as his control/SO rate/command are each off a bit when compared to years previous, but outside of some strikeout rate erosion, there's only standard year-to-year fluctuation. The key might just lodge in expectations. Coming into 2011, Danks' career-low xERA was 3.91 in 2008, the only time he's finished a season with a sub-4.00 xERA. While he still has usefulness and some growth upside at age 26, Danks shows no signs of a performance spike. What you see in 2011 is what you get because nothing in his arsenal stands out. The Nats are too hot to ignore against the mediocre skills of Danks taking back a tag like this one. Play: Washington +144 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 45 44 0 +16.02 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 105 125 1 -10.74 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y. Mets +150 over TEXAS
On paper this one looks like another easy win for the Rangers with Alexi Ogando and his 1.91 home ERA going up against Jonathan Niese. Not so fast. Ogando is a converted outfielder that came up in mid-June last year and pummeled hitters. A closer look though reveals an enviable hit %/strand %/ hr/f trifecta that has carried into this year. There are more warning signs too. Ogando has never pitched more than 72 innings in a season and that includes four minor-league years prior to his call-up last June. This year he’s already thrown 88 innings and he needed intravenous fluids after Sunday’s loss to the Braves. In his last two starts he’s lasted a combined 6.2 innings and his strikeout rate is slowing way down. His BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) over his last eight starts by time through lineup (119, 84, 38) suggests he’s wearing out quicker than earlier in the year. His sub-3.00 ERA is sure to rise once his 22% hit rate and 83% strand rate normalize, so he's got plenty of short-term risk. Finally, his 36%/21%/43% GB/LD/FB/ profile is unfavorable, especially at this park and when you put all these things together Ogando is a big sell high candidate with his unsustainable 1.91 home ERA. Thanks to an arsenal that includes a low 90s fastball, curve, change and cutter (which some have deemed a "slutter"), Niese has recovered nicely after a slow start in April. The xERA suggests that expectations of a sub-4.00 ERA are reasonable. Following his rough month of April, Niese has had an ERA of 3.05 for May/June. Niese has also shown big growth in his strikeout rate over the past two months and a LHP with a solid K rate is an appealing target to be sure. Play: N.Y. Mets +150 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +144 over CHICAGO
Wagering on a hot team is seldom a bad idea. The Nats won again last night in dramatic fashion to push their current run to 12 wins in 13 games. This team can’t wait to get back to the park and a young team that gets on a roll is indeed a dangerous one. Tom Gorzelanny makes his second start since coming off the DL and his first start back was an ugly one. However, Gorzelanny was showing skills growth, with a good strikeout rate (48 K’s in 58 IP), good control (21 BB) and a 67 BPV before being sidelined by elbow inflammation in late May. Skill swings make him a moving target and he’s probably the second best pitcher on the mound today but that doesn’t mean he’ll lose. The South Side has struggled all year vs southpaws with a .234 BA. After a night game that went 14 innings there’s a good chance that Ozzie may be forced to sit A.J Pierzynski and maybe even another 33-yr-old+ regular, as this is a day game after a night game. And then there’s John Danks. Danks received a lot of attention for his slow start and things really fell apart for him in May in which he posted a 6.89 ERA, 1.72 WHIP and a 5.63 xERA. He’s had three great starts in June, posting a 1.23 ERA with 17 K’s, three walks, a 0.95 WHIP and allowing just 18 hits in 22 frames. That said, he faced the D-Backs, M’s and A’s in his last three starts and two of those three teams can’t hit. Don’t rack up his poor start to bad luck. No one thing stands out as the sole cause of his O-7 record. A 31%/74% hit%/strand% are not out of the ordinary, and his xERA was nearly an ERA match. It's not any core skills change either, as his control/SO rate/command are each off a bit when compared to years previous, but outside of some strikeout rate erosion, there's only standard year-to-year fluctuation. The key might just lodge in expectations. Coming into 2011, Danks' career-low xERA was 3.91 in 2008, the only time he's finished a season with a sub-4.00 xERA. While he still has usefulness and some growth upside at age 26, Danks shows no signs of a performance spike. What you see in 2011 is what you get because nothing in his arsenal stands out. The Nats are too hot to ignore against the mediocre skills of Danks taking back a tag like this one. Play: Washington +144 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
