3 Sunday w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.


HOME TEAM IN CAPS

N.Y. YANKEES –1½ +117 over Colorado
Juan Nicasio has 24 K’s and just seven walks in his young five-start career. However, he also has a 4.71 ERA and a BAA of .302 and that’s after facing the Indians, Padres, Dodgers, Giants and Cardinals. Now this 24-yr old kid from the Dominican is going to face a line-up that can bash and it won't be pretty. Nicasio is basically a two-pitch pitcher although he’ll throw in the occasional change. It’s fastball, fastball and fastball and they don’t have a lot of movement on them either. Nicasio has potential but was prematurely brought up when Jorge De La Rosa was injured and Aaron Cook was already on the DL. Nicasio is not major-league ready and the Yanks should rip this guy apart. He put up some very good minor league numbers and has potential for sure but this isn’t Colorado Springs and what you’re going to see is a guy who’s very likely going to overthrow here because the venue, crowd and Pinstripes will have him overwhelmed. The more we see Ivan Nova the more we like him. His outstanding 55% GB profile gives him a chance every time he takes the hill. His strikeout rate is climbing and in his last start in Cincinnati he didn’t issue a walk while striking out seven. The Yanks have won Nova’s last three starts and they’ve won seven of his last 10 starts. This one could get ugly for Nicasio, very ugly, as fastballs doen the middle of the plate won't fool many. Play: NY Yankees –1½ +117 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO –1½ +136 over Washington
Livan Hernandez is an innings-eating machine and he has a high baseball IQ when facing a lot of young hitters but that’s not the case with the White Sox. The South Side has some of the most experienced and patient hitters in the big leagues and they won’t be outsmarted by Hernandez’s extremely average stuff. Improved control, hit % and stand % have all helped to produce the 3.97 ERA. But luck aside, his newfound ability to avoid HRs over the past two years is still baffling and we still wouldn't take him on a dare. His rising fly-ball rate and his lucky hr/f rate suggest his HR/9 rate is headed north. Hernandez's 2011 thus far is a case study for what's possible for a pitcher with below-average skills when everything goes right. The Nats ended a hot run with a 3-0 loss yesterday in which they only mustered two hits. Philip Humber has been a revelation for the White Sox, first filling in for Jake Peavy and then becoming a main cog in their six-man rotation. With only two previous major-league starts under his belt in parts of five seasons before this one, it's new ground for Humber. The question now is how long will this last? While his sub-3.00 ERA will be short-lived, his foundation is not one that is likely to implode. Humber does a great job controlling walks; as his control is stellar and should keep his WHIP in check. A higher strikeout rate would be nice, but it's still high enough to produce a good 55 k’s in 90 IP. Nothing in GB/LD/FB numbers are cause for alarm. He’s not as good as his 2.90 ERA in 90 IP suggest but he’s solid and he doesn’t get into a lot of trouble and he offers up way more upside than that opposing stiff. Play: Chicago –1½ +146 (Risking 2 units).

SAN DIEGO +122 over Atlanta
These two have split eight games this year and one of those Padres win came in San Diego against Tim Hudson, 3-2. Hudson is coming off an eight-inning, two-hit shutout gem against the Blue Jays in his last start and has a 2.00 ERA over his last three starts. Hudson is also loaded with pedigree and reputation and he’s up against a guy making his season starting debut. Why then, are the Braves a seemingly small favorite here? If you were thinking of biting or taking the bait, think again. Cory Luebke is a southpaw and the Braves are the worst hitting team in the majors against lefties with a combined BA of .219. In 29 relief appearances covering 39 innings, Luebke has whiffed 43 batters and walked just 15. He has an solid GB/LD/FB profile of 48%/15%/37% and his 3.23 ERA lines up just right with his 3.17 xERA. Furthermore, he’s no stranger to starting. He was a starter his whole minor league career with outstanding numbers and the combination of Petco Park and solid skills make him an intriguing option going forward. He also made three starts with the Padres last year. This past Monday, Luebke came on in long relief against the Red Sox and gave up two runs on one hit in 3.1 innings and at one point struck out five consecutive hitters. Again, Tim Hudson needs no introduction. He’s a model of consistency. Lots of GBs, good control and a very respectful 3.73 ERA. However, advancing age along with less strikeouts says don’t keep overpaying for him and it sure looks like the books are trying to entice some Braves money here. Play: San Diego +122 (Risking 2 units).
 

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nice cash on the yanks and pads.... good write up on the yanks and nova, nova was dealing today except for the solo shots he gave up to wiggington, both on 0-2 fastballs, just missed location or else nova wouldve threw a dandy of a game....actually the pitch and HR to ianetta was on an 0-2 pitch as well...and cargo was out stealing 2nd base but the ump called him safe..he then came around to score on a sac fly... novas line was not good but he was pretty good... good write up you were spot on
 

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nice cash on the yanks and pads.... good write up on the yanks and nova, nova was dealing today except for the solo shots he gave up to wiggington, both on 0-2 fastballs, just missed location or else nova wouldve threw a dandy of a game....actually the pitch and HR to ianetta was on an 0-2 pitch as well...and cargo was out stealing 2nd base but the ump called him safe..he then came around to score on a sac fly... novas line was not good but he was pretty good... good write up you were spot on

Well said, Sherwood doin it big
 

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