Yesterday 1 0 0 +2.52 Units
Last 30 Days 43 43 0 +15.40 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 109 127 1 -4.44 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Milwaukee +122 over N.Y. YANKEES
Will all due respect to guys like Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Roy Halliday et all, when Zack Greinke is on his game he’s the best in the business. He throws an assortment of pitches at different speeds and it’s been said that he doesn’t throw the same pitch twice in a game. His 4.77 ERA is the result of a shaky May after missing the first month of the season. In May be had a low 60% strand rate and a high 41% hit rate. That is pure bad luck. Despite that, the Brewers won four of his five May starts and overall they’ve won eight of his 10 starts. The difference now is he’s getting sharper. Greinke was unhittable in his last start against the Rays in which he threw a seven-inning four-hit, one-run gem. He struck out 10 and walked none. In 60 innings he’s whiffed 80 and walked nine. Current Yanks batters have actually had quite a bit of success off Greinke with a combined 33 hits in 111 AB’s for a BA of .297. However, that includes his early days when he was fine-tuning his game. In his last three starts against the Yanks covering 19 innings, Greinke posted a 1.83 ERA with a BAA of .247. He’s also pitching for a team that’s giving him plenty of run support and the Brewers should get lots of opportunities to give him plenty more here. Freddy Garcia keeps cranking. He's got a 3.37 ERA over his last five starts and that includes a seven-inning, three hitter in Cincinnati in his last start. That’s amazing for a soft tossing, inning eater like Garcia. Having said that, his xERA is 4.60 because his 80% strand rate is unsustainable. With an average fastball velocity of 87 MPH, his room for error is razor thin. His outpitch has been a split-finger fastball, which he is throwing in place of some change-ups. Once batters start making him throw that pitch for strikes, his current numbers are heading south big time. Now is the time to sell high on Garcia and no matter what happens in this game, taking back a tag on the Brewers and Greinke is going with the best of it, bar none. Play: Milwaukee +122 (Risking 2 units).
GAME 2 of DH
CHICAGO –102 over San Francisco
Scheduled starters are Barry Zito vs Rodrigo Lopez and this bet is predicated on Barry Zito starting for the Giants. It does not matter who’s pitching for the Cubs so specify Zito must go. In a league with roughly 150 starters Barry Zito ranks 150th. The Giants have to pay this stiff 18M this year so they have no mercy whatsoever about throwing him out there and hoping for the best. This has to go down as one of the worst signings in baseball history. Zito has never had a winning season for the Giants and he’s not going to have one this year either. In three starts before he went on the DL, Zito lasted a combined 13.1 frames and surrendered 12 runs while walking eight batters. Early reports are that the wind is blowing out at Wrigley and that means Zito has no chance of success. Zito is a line-drive, fly-ball pitcher that rarely induces a groundball out and rarely strikes out anyone either. If the Giants weren’t paying 18M for his services, you wouldn’t see him near a pitching mound anywhere. He’s an old 33 years of age, he’s washed up with no skills at all and his Oakland heyday isn’t coming back. Rodrigo Lopez might be ranked 149th on that list. The difference is the Cubbies can score while the Giants cannot. The Giants’ offense has dried up. They have a .209/.263/.295 line over the last week. Predictably, their pitching has done all they can to pick up the slack, with a .193 opponent BA over that same period but Zito will give up seven on a good day. San Francisco’s HR leader is currently Aubrey Huff with eight and no matter who’s pitching, the Giants can make them look good. The Cubbies are playing much better of late. They beat Jhouly’s Chacin yesterday and they’re now .500 over their last 14 games. Regardless of that, Zito favored is less appealing than Rosie O’Donnell in a bikini. Play: Chicago –102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
N.Y. Mets +134 over DETROIT
The Tigers are having difficulties with the NL thus far with four wins in 11 tries and the Mets are playing some pretty sweet baseball these days. The Mets just went into Texas and whacked the Rangers in two out of three games and have now won four of five. R.A. Dickey is a knuckleballer with decent velocity on that pitch. He has a strong GB/LD/FB profile of 53%/15%/32% and he also has a 3.13 xERA over his last four starts. Knuckleballers don't follow any rules and they’re somewhat risky but Dickey has showed consistent good skills for two years running and the Mets could possibly put up a bunch here against Rick Porcello. Porcello has an ERA of 5.65 at Comerica. His confidence is slipping after allowing 17 hits and 14 runs over his last two starts covering just 7.2 innings. His poor strikeout rate is getting worse and in fact, Porcello has whiffed two or less in three of his last four starts. In five June starts the opposition is hitting .313 off Porcello and he’s posted a WHIP of 1.65. That's trouble, as the Mets are second in the majors in stolen bases with 77, just one behind the Royals league-leading 78 and Porcello will put men on base. Everything about Porcello’s profile right now points to a pitcher that’s in trouble and running out of gas. Play: N.Y Mets +134 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +114 over PHILADELPHIA
This is the feature series of the week, pitting AL royalty against NL royalty. The Red Sox have the highest OPS in the majors over the last week (.872), while the Phillies (.612) are just 23rd in the league. Entering play Sunday, Boston has scored 142 runs, 27 more than any other team in the majors. The Philadelphia trio of Raul Ibanez (.197), Placido Polanco (.192) and Domonic Brown (.151) are all below the Mendoza Line this month. The Red Sox have only one regular (J.D. Drew) within 75 points of the Mendoza Line this month and that’s where the big edge goes to the visitor. So, when we think of Philly and that park we think offense. However, the Phillies have not delivered this season and the only reason they win so many games is because of outstanding pitching. Thing is, this isn’t Halliday against Miller or Wakefield. This is Lee vs Beckett and Beckett actually has a lower ERA (1.86) than Lee (1.88). So while Lee has been facing the Cardinals, Dodgers, Marlins, Cubbies and Nats, Beckett has faced the Yanks, Tigers and Rays in three of his last four starts and allowed a combined four runs against that trio. So, for argument sake, let’s call the pitching match-up a wash. Offensively, these two are on different planets and it’s not in the Phillies favor. Play: Boston +114 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +122 over COLORADO
Both these starters today have pitched exactly 94 innings to date. Jason Hammel has walked 36 and struck out 51. Gavin Floyd has walked 25 and struck out 69. Advantage Floyd. They have virtually identical GB/LD/FB profiles of 45%/19%/36% but Hammel’s profile fluctuates while Floyd’s has been consistent for three years running. In fact, Hammel’s profile over the last month is 38%/19%/43%. Furthermore, Hammel has a chronic strand rate and it’s not good. In fact, Hammel has a career opponent OPS of .855 with runners on and that’s a sure sign of a guy that gets rattled easily. Additionally, the Rockies have lost nine of Hammel’s last 10 starts and it gets even worse. Hammel has been absolutely torched in four of his last five starts and the only team that didn’t belt him over that stretch were the Giants and it’s not like he was facing the cream of the crop either. Hammel faced the Dodgers twice, the Indians and the Tigers in the aforementioned last four games and allowed 30 hits and 20 runs in 22 innings of work. Floyd has established himself as a reliable mid-range starting pitcher, while posting a third straight season of solid skills. Floyd has traded strikeouts for control, with heightened command and improved WHIP as results. While his strikeout rate is down from 2009-2010 levels, the control gains more than offset the lower strikeout rate, as command indicates. Floyd is becoming a more control-oriented pitcher. His overall skill level is largely unchanged, according to skills and xERA. Floyd is a reliable starter and has a very gpood history against current Rockies batters, as they have just five hits against him in 25 AB’s (.200). The South Side can be a frustrating team to wager on. So much talent and a losing record but there’s no denying the value on them in this one. Play: Chicago +122 (Risking 2 units).
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OBA), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 43 43 0 +15.40 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 109 127 1 -4.44 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Milwaukee +122 over N.Y. YANKEES
Will all due respect to guys like Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Roy Halliday et all, when Zack Greinke is on his game he’s the best in the business. He throws an assortment of pitches at different speeds and it’s been said that he doesn’t throw the same pitch twice in a game. His 4.77 ERA is the result of a shaky May after missing the first month of the season. In May be had a low 60% strand rate and a high 41% hit rate. That is pure bad luck. Despite that, the Brewers won four of his five May starts and overall they’ve won eight of his 10 starts. The difference now is he’s getting sharper. Greinke was unhittable in his last start against the Rays in which he threw a seven-inning four-hit, one-run gem. He struck out 10 and walked none. In 60 innings he’s whiffed 80 and walked nine. Current Yanks batters have actually had quite a bit of success off Greinke with a combined 33 hits in 111 AB’s for a BA of .297. However, that includes his early days when he was fine-tuning his game. In his last three starts against the Yanks covering 19 innings, Greinke posted a 1.83 ERA with a BAA of .247. He’s also pitching for a team that’s giving him plenty of run support and the Brewers should get lots of opportunities to give him plenty more here. Freddy Garcia keeps cranking. He's got a 3.37 ERA over his last five starts and that includes a seven-inning, three hitter in Cincinnati in his last start. That’s amazing for a soft tossing, inning eater like Garcia. Having said that, his xERA is 4.60 because his 80% strand rate is unsustainable. With an average fastball velocity of 87 MPH, his room for error is razor thin. His outpitch has been a split-finger fastball, which he is throwing in place of some change-ups. Once batters start making him throw that pitch for strikes, his current numbers are heading south big time. Now is the time to sell high on Garcia and no matter what happens in this game, taking back a tag on the Brewers and Greinke is going with the best of it, bar none. Play: Milwaukee +122 (Risking 2 units).
GAME 2 of DH
CHICAGO –102 over San Francisco
Scheduled starters are Barry Zito vs Rodrigo Lopez and this bet is predicated on Barry Zito starting for the Giants. It does not matter who’s pitching for the Cubs so specify Zito must go. In a league with roughly 150 starters Barry Zito ranks 150th. The Giants have to pay this stiff 18M this year so they have no mercy whatsoever about throwing him out there and hoping for the best. This has to go down as one of the worst signings in baseball history. Zito has never had a winning season for the Giants and he’s not going to have one this year either. In three starts before he went on the DL, Zito lasted a combined 13.1 frames and surrendered 12 runs while walking eight batters. Early reports are that the wind is blowing out at Wrigley and that means Zito has no chance of success. Zito is a line-drive, fly-ball pitcher that rarely induces a groundball out and rarely strikes out anyone either. If the Giants weren’t paying 18M for his services, you wouldn’t see him near a pitching mound anywhere. He’s an old 33 years of age, he’s washed up with no skills at all and his Oakland heyday isn’t coming back. Rodrigo Lopez might be ranked 149th on that list. The difference is the Cubbies can score while the Giants cannot. The Giants’ offense has dried up. They have a .209/.263/.295 line over the last week. Predictably, their pitching has done all they can to pick up the slack, with a .193 opponent BA over that same period but Zito will give up seven on a good day. San Francisco’s HR leader is currently Aubrey Huff with eight and no matter who’s pitching, the Giants can make them look good. The Cubbies are playing much better of late. They beat Jhouly’s Chacin yesterday and they’re now .500 over their last 14 games. Regardless of that, Zito favored is less appealing than Rosie O’Donnell in a bikini. Play: Chicago –102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
N.Y. Mets +134 over DETROIT
The Tigers are having difficulties with the NL thus far with four wins in 11 tries and the Mets are playing some pretty sweet baseball these days. The Mets just went into Texas and whacked the Rangers in two out of three games and have now won four of five. R.A. Dickey is a knuckleballer with decent velocity on that pitch. He has a strong GB/LD/FB profile of 53%/15%/32% and he also has a 3.13 xERA over his last four starts. Knuckleballers don't follow any rules and they’re somewhat risky but Dickey has showed consistent good skills for two years running and the Mets could possibly put up a bunch here against Rick Porcello. Porcello has an ERA of 5.65 at Comerica. His confidence is slipping after allowing 17 hits and 14 runs over his last two starts covering just 7.2 innings. His poor strikeout rate is getting worse and in fact, Porcello has whiffed two or less in three of his last four starts. In five June starts the opposition is hitting .313 off Porcello and he’s posted a WHIP of 1.65. That's trouble, as the Mets are second in the majors in stolen bases with 77, just one behind the Royals league-leading 78 and Porcello will put men on base. Everything about Porcello’s profile right now points to a pitcher that’s in trouble and running out of gas. Play: N.Y Mets +134 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +114 over PHILADELPHIA
This is the feature series of the week, pitting AL royalty against NL royalty. The Red Sox have the highest OPS in the majors over the last week (.872), while the Phillies (.612) are just 23rd in the league. Entering play Sunday, Boston has scored 142 runs, 27 more than any other team in the majors. The Philadelphia trio of Raul Ibanez (.197), Placido Polanco (.192) and Domonic Brown (.151) are all below the Mendoza Line this month. The Red Sox have only one regular (J.D. Drew) within 75 points of the Mendoza Line this month and that’s where the big edge goes to the visitor. So, when we think of Philly and that park we think offense. However, the Phillies have not delivered this season and the only reason they win so many games is because of outstanding pitching. Thing is, this isn’t Halliday against Miller or Wakefield. This is Lee vs Beckett and Beckett actually has a lower ERA (1.86) than Lee (1.88). So while Lee has been facing the Cardinals, Dodgers, Marlins, Cubbies and Nats, Beckett has faced the Yanks, Tigers and Rays in three of his last four starts and allowed a combined four runs against that trio. So, for argument sake, let’s call the pitching match-up a wash. Offensively, these two are on different planets and it’s not in the Phillies favor. Play: Boston +114 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +122 over COLORADO
Both these starters today have pitched exactly 94 innings to date. Jason Hammel has walked 36 and struck out 51. Gavin Floyd has walked 25 and struck out 69. Advantage Floyd. They have virtually identical GB/LD/FB profiles of 45%/19%/36% but Hammel’s profile fluctuates while Floyd’s has been consistent for three years running. In fact, Hammel’s profile over the last month is 38%/19%/43%. Furthermore, Hammel has a chronic strand rate and it’s not good. In fact, Hammel has a career opponent OPS of .855 with runners on and that’s a sure sign of a guy that gets rattled easily. Additionally, the Rockies have lost nine of Hammel’s last 10 starts and it gets even worse. Hammel has been absolutely torched in four of his last five starts and the only team that didn’t belt him over that stretch were the Giants and it’s not like he was facing the cream of the crop either. Hammel faced the Dodgers twice, the Indians and the Tigers in the aforementioned last four games and allowed 30 hits and 20 runs in 22 innings of work. Floyd has established himself as a reliable mid-range starting pitcher, while posting a third straight season of solid skills. Floyd has traded strikeouts for control, with heightened command and improved WHIP as results. While his strikeout rate is down from 2009-2010 levels, the control gains more than offset the lower strikeout rate, as command indicates. Floyd is becoming a more control-oriented pitcher. His overall skill level is largely unchanged, according to skills and xERA. Floyd is a reliable starter and has a very gpood history against current Rockies batters, as they have just five hits against him in 25 AB’s (.200). The South Side can be a frustrating team to wager on. So much talent and a losing record but there’s no denying the value on them in this one. Play: Chicago +122 (Risking 2 units).
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OBA), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
