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Chicago White Sox, Rockies Conclude Coors Series

A getaway matinee at Coors Field finds Jake Peavy facing Aaron Cook.
The Chicago White Sox and the Colorado Rockies are both sitting just below .500 near the halfway point of the MLB betting campaign, but both still think that they can make a second half run and get into the playoffs.

The two will meet against each other for the third and final time in this 3-game set on Thursday afternoon at Coors Field in Denver, CO. First pitch is slated to be at 12:10 p.m. (PT), and there will be live television coverage on Comcast Sports North and ROOT TV.

The most important factor in this game might be Mother Nature. Temperatures are expected to be hot with midday highs in the low-90s. Keep an eye on the wind, though. Winds are expected to be blowing out of the southwest 20-25 mph, which means that the ball will be flying out towards left-center field.

That wind could mean tourble for Chicago's Jake Peavy, the starting pitcher for manager Ozzie Guillen.

Peavy threw in relief in a 3-0 win over the Washington Nationals five days ago, striking out seven and allowing just one hit in four spotless frames. However, prior to that, he really didn't have his best stuff, and the end result is that he has a 4.23 ERA for the year.

The right-hander does a great job of limiting walks. He only has seven free passes issued in his 38 1/3 innings of work. However, he typically is allowing right around the same number of fly ball outs as ground ball outs.

Sure, that works fine at home on the mound at US Cellular Field, but when the ball gets up in the thin air in Denver with the winds blowing out, trouble could be coming.

Aaron Cook really does look overmatched in this battle on paper. After all, this right-hander is just 0-3 on the season with a 5.48 ERA, and he is coming off of a dud of a battle against the New York Yankees in which he allowed 12 hits and six runs in just 5 2/3 innings.

However, Mother Nature once again might be the equalizer. Cook is a lot more of a ground ball pitcher, and the White Sox are a lot more likely to try to get those sinking pitches up in the air. If Cook can keep his sinker and his fastball down, Chicago really could struggle at the plate in spite of the wind.

This series has already gotten off to a sour start for the White Sox. They were knocked off 3-2 in 13 innings on Tuesday night, and Guillen called the defeat the "worst of the year."

Thursday is getaway day for the White Sox, who have to travel back to the Windy City to take on the crosstown rival Cubs over the weekend. Colorado welcomes in the Kansas City Royals for a three-game weekend set at Coors Field.
 

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New York Mets Face Tigers In Motown Matinee

The Mets are a money-draining 5-11 in Mike Pelfrey’s 16 starting assignments.
The Detroit Tigers and New York Mets finish their mid-week interleague series on Thursday afternoon. The Mets will try not to look past this game with the hated Yankees coming up this weekend.

The local broadcast from Comerica Park will be an early 10:05 a.m. (PT). Detroit sends out the red-hot Justin Verlander (10-3, 2.38 ERA) against Mike Pelfrey (4-6, 4.78 ERA).

This is the second series between the teams since 2007. The Mets took two of three at home last year and got off on the right foot Tuesday with a 14-3 win. Wednesday’s middle game is still pending with Detroit a 130 favorite behind hard-luck hurler Phil Coke (1-7).

The Tigers (43-37) had a 3-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday and is clinging to a 1-game lead over Cleveland in the AL Central standings. They’re getting the job done at home overall (25-16, +4.8 units) and haven’t lost a home series since Boston in late May.

Detroit is 5-8 during interleague Play this year, with the ‘over’ 8-3-2.

Verlander pitching the series finale is a case of saving the best for last. He’s been virtually unhittable the last six starts, going 6-0 with a 0.73 ERA, lasting at least 7 2/3 innings each time with two complete games.

The ‘under’ is 5-1 in Verlander’s last six starts.

The 28-year-old right-hander had a poor home start against Tampa on May 24, allowing six earned runs over six innings, but Detroit still got a 7-6 win. His other nine home outings have all been quality starts with a combined 1.70 ERA.

Verlander’s one career start against the Mets was a forgettable one, lasting just two innings and allowing five earned runs last year in New York.

The Mets (40-39) are over .500 and have won 3-straight, but are only in third place in the tough NL East, 9.5 games back of Philadelphia. They lead the NL in runs scored this month (5.24 per game) despite playing without injured third basemen David Wright (back) and first baseman Ike Davis (ankle).

The ‘over’ is 3-0 in New York’s last three games, scoring a whopping 36 runs.

Shortstop Jose Reyes (.922 OBP) and outfielder Carlos Beltran (.862) have been the team’s best offensive players this year. That’s ironic as both are former stars who’ve dealt with multiple injury problems the last couple of years. Both have also been prominently mentioned in trade rumors.

New York is 7-6 during interleague play this year, with the ‘over’ going 5-2 in away games (8-5 overall).

Pelfrey has the highest ERA of the Mets starters. It would be great to have the injured Johan Santana (shoulder) come back and lead the rotation, but the starters haven’t been bad overall (3.81 ERA, seventh in the NL).

The 27-year-old Pelfrey is having trouble matching last year’s career season (15-9, 3.66 ERA). He’s already given up more homers (14) than all of last season (12), including 12 in his last 11 starts. However, he still has seven quality starts in those 11 outings (3.98 ERA overall).

New York is just 5-11 in Pelfrey’s starts, 1-8 on the road (6.65 ERA). He hasn’t pitched horribly in his last three road outings (3.79 ERA), but still lost all three. This is his first career appearance against Detroit.

The Mets are 8-4 in their last 12 road games and 22-19 for the year (+10.6 units). That’s the second most road profits in the NL.

Weather should be clear and in the 70s. Both teams start their final interleague series on Friday. Detroit hosts defending champion San Francisco, while the Mets welcome the Bronx Bombers as mentioned above.
 

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Around the Horn - Thursday

June 29, 2011


NATIONAL LEAGUE


San Francisco at Chicago - 2:20 PM EST (Game 4/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Cain (7-4, 3.22 ERA) 7-1 L8 3-1 Game 4's
Zambrano (6-4, 4.38 ERA) 4-8 L12 UNDER 5-3 L8 home during day

Giants beat Cubs, 13-7 on Tuesday (G1/DH)
Giants beat Cubs, 6-3 on Tuesday (G2/DH)
Cubs beat Giants, 2-1 on Wednesday


INTERLEAGUE


New York (N) at Detroit - 1:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Pelfrey (4-6, 4.78 ERA) 5-1 L6 OVER 7-1 L8 away during day
Verlander (10-3, 2.38 ERA) 4-2 L6 7-2 home Game 3's

Mets beat Tigers, 14-3 on Tuesday
Mets beat Tigers, 16-9 on Wednesday

Boston at Philadelphia - 1:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Lester (9-4, 3.66 ERA) 1-5 L6 8-0 L8 away Game 3's
Hamels (9-4, 2.49 ERA) 6-3 L9 11-2 home vs LHP

Phillies beat Red Sox, 5-0 on Tuesday
Phillies beat Red Sox, 2-1 on Wednesday

Milwaukee at New York (A) - 1:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Wolf (6-4, 3.20 ERA) 4-2 L6 UNDER 7-1 away vs LHP
Sabathia (10-4, 3.25 ERA) 7-2 L9 OVER 6-1 L7 home vs LHP

Yankees beat Brewers, 12-2 on Tuesday
Yankees beat Brewers, 5-2 on Wednesday

Chicago (A) at Colorado - 3:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Peavy (4-1, 4.23 ERA) 5-4 L9 OVER 9-3 away during day
Cook (0-3, 5.48 ERA) 2-4 L6 OVER 11-2 home during day

Rockies beat White Sox, 3-2 on Tuesday
White Sox beat Rockies, 3-2 on Wednesday

Florida at Oakland - 3:35 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Volstad (3-7, 5.42 ERA) UNDER 9-2 L11 1-5 L6 away during day
Cahill (8-5, 3.09 ERA) 2-4 L6 6-3 home Game 3's

Athletics beat Marlins, 1-0 on Tuesday

St. Louis at Baltimore - 7:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Garcia (6-3, 3.06 ERA) 2-5 L7 3-5 L8 away Game 3's
Matusz (1-3, 6.85 ERA) OVER 6-2 L8 OVER 4-1 L5 home Game 3's

Cardinals beat Orioles, 6-2 on Tuesday
Cardinals beat Orioles, 5-1 on Wednesday

Pittsburgh at Toronto - 7:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Karstens (5-4, 2.66 ERA) 5-1 L6 6-2 away vs LHP
Cecil (1-2, 6.86 ERA) 3-6 L9 OVER 8-2 L10 home vs RHP

Pirates beat Blue Jays, 7-6 on Tuesday
Blue Jays beat Pirates, 2-1 on Wednesday

Texas at Houston - 8:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Harrison (6-6, 3.00 ERA) 2-3 L5 4-9 away vs LHP
W. Rodriguez (5-4, 3.21 ERA) 1-7 L8 0-5 L5 home Game 3's

Rangers beat Astros, 7-3 on Tuesday
Rangers beat Astros, 3-2 on Wednesday
 

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Seven young pitchers prone to the fatigue factor

It seems that every pitcher who gets drafted or signs as a free agent should not only get the traditional signing bonus but also a gift card good for one free major arm surgery by either James Andrews or Lewis Yocum.

While not all young pitchers get hurt, it certainly seems they do. Various studies have shown that a pitcher's chances of getting injured are greater if he carries a heavy workload at age 25 or younger.

Baseball Prospectus tracks a statistic called Pitcher Abuse Points, based on how many pitches a starter throws beyond 100 in each of his starts. Baseball Prospectus also has another metric called Stress, which simply measures the number of Pitcher Abuse Points divided by the number of starts in a season.

Using Stress as a guide, let's look the seven pitchers 25 years or under who have the highest score in that category this season and could be due for a dropoff in the second half of the schedule. These pitchers would be good go-against bets if the matchups and odds are right:

Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (+0.96 units)

Hernandez, 25, has shown the ability to handle a heavy workload ever since pitching 191 innings as a 20-year-old rookie in 2006. He has surpassed the 200-inning barrier each of the last three seasons and worked an American League-high 249 2-3 innings last season when he led the league with a 2.27 ERA and won the AL Cy Young Award.

The 6-foot-3, 225 pounder seems to be a freak of nature - a pitcher able to withstand a heavy workload. Hernandez has thrown at least 110 pitches in 11 of his 17 starts this season, so he is still worth keeping an eye on despite his track record of durability.

Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves (+1.16 units)

The 24 year old is scheduled to come off the disabled list Tuesday night and start against the Mariners and impressive rookie Michael Pineda, a 22 year old who has been handled very carefully by manager Eric Wedge. Hanson has been out since June 13 with inflammation in his shoulder.

Hanson pitched 202 2-3 innings in his first full major league season last year and actually got stronger as the year went on. He posted a 2.51 ERA in 100 1-3 innings after the All-Star break, after pitching to a 4.13 ERA in 102 1-3 innings in the first half of the schedule. Hanson has only gone over 100 pitches in half his 14 starts this season but the shoulder issue is a red flag.

Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics (-0.15 units)

The Athletics have been pushing Cahill, just 23, hard this season after he emerged as their ace while pitching 196 1-3 innings last year. He has already worked 107 1-3 innings in 2011, thrown 100 pitches in 14 of his 17 starts and reached at least 110 pitches eight times.

Fatigue often shows itself in diminished control and command, which has been the case with Cahill. His walks per nine innings have risen to 3.8 from 2.9 in 2010 and he has already thrown 10 wild pitches this year after uncorking just two last summer.

David Price, Tampa Bay Rays (+2.11 units)

Price worked 208 1-3 innings without incident last year as a 24 year old and his innings count is at 110 1-3 this year. The Rays are a progressive-thinking organization and have monitored Price closely since selecting him with the first overall pick in the 2007 amateur draft.

However, Price did show a dropoff in the second half last season, compiling a 2.42 ERA in 115 1-3 innings before the break and a 3.09 ERA in 93 1-3 innings after. He also has thrown 110 pitches in nine of his 16 starts this season and gone more than 100 pitches 13 times.

Jon Niese, New York Mets (+3.41 units)

The 24-year-old left hander has been profitable to his backers, but he is at 98 innings this season after throwing 173 2-3 as a rookie last year. Niese was pulled from his start against the Rangers on an extremely hot day in Arlington with a rapid heartbeat last Saturday.

The Mets will have Niese checked by a cardiologist before they open a series in Detroit Tuesday night. While it isn't believed that Niese has anything seriously wrong, he faded in the second half last season, as his ERA rose to 4.82 in 84 innings after posting a 3.61 ERA in 89 2-3 pre-break innings.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (+1.54 units)

Kershaw is one of the few bright spots in a dismal season for the Dodgers, both on and off the field. Kershaw has logged 116 2-3 innings in 17 starts already at the tender age of 23, after pitching 204 1-3 innings last year.

Rookie manager Don Mattingly has been careful with Kershaw, though, allowing him to surpass 110 pitches just six times. Yet, it is worth watching to see if Mattingly decides to ride his ace harder in a desperate attempt to get back into the National League West race.

Derek Holland, Texas Rangers (-1.0 units)

Holland is already at 100 innings after pitching 123 in an injury-shortened 2010 and 142 1-3 as a rookie in 2009. On pace to pitch 200 innings, it would be a significant one-year rise for a 24 year old if he reaches that plateau and it would be interesting to see how he handles that workload.

Rangers owner Nolan Ryan has made it an organizational-wide policy for pitchers to work through higher pitch counts. Holland has exceeded 110 pitches in seven of his 16 starts this season.
 

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Thursday’s betting tips: Peavy starts on short rest

Who’s hot

MLB: The over has cashed in on nine of Milwaukee’s last 13.

MLB: San Francisco is 21-7 in its last 28 as a favorite.

WNBA: Minnesota has covered in seven of its last 10 road games.

Who’s not

MLB: The Mets have won two of Mike Pelrey’s last eight starts.

MLB: The Pirates have won only eight of their last 30 games on astroturf.

WNBA: Atlanta is just 1-8 against the spread this season.

Key stat

25 – Maria Sharapova has yet to be really tested as she heads into her Wimbledon semifinal match against as a -300 favorite. Sharapova, has lost just 25 games so far and is also pegged as the tournament’s outright favorite at +120.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves - The knee injury Jones has been playing through may be more serious than originally thought. Jones sat out Wednesday’s game and the team plans to rest him for a couple of days, hoping he won’t need surgery. Jones has just three hits over the last six games.

Game of the day

Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies (-125, 7.5)


Notable quotable

"Your body is a machine a little bit. It makes noises. So for me it's perfectly natural now. I really have to exhale with that to move, to hit the shot. It's not that I want to piss somebody off. It's just natural." - Victoria Azarenka about all the fuss her grunting is making at Wimbledon. She’s set as a +100 favorite against Petra Kvitova in the other women’s semifinal.

Notes and tips

Jake Peavy will start Thursday for the Chicago White Sox against Colorado even though he threw 4 1/3 innings of relief Saturday against Washington. Peavy reportedly flew his massage therapist to Denver to help him recuperate and isn’t concerned about fatigue. "My biggest thing was that I wanted to pitch twice more (before the end of the first half), and I wanted to pitch in the division twice more by staying on schedule," Peavy told reporters. Peavy is 4-1 on the year and is currently set around -110 for Thursday’s game.

Carlos Beltran is open to a trade from the New York Mets if it means he’s heading to a contending team. Now that he has openly stated that he’d be OK with a move, this could give some weight to the rumors that have been floating around the Mets’ clubhouse for weeks. He’s unlikely to be re-signed after the season, so this may move quickly. “You take a piece like [Beltran] out of the lineup, and you better have something to replace it with,” manager Terry Collins said. I
 

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Thursday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers


Streaking

Justin Verlander (10-3, 2.38 ERA), Detroit Tigers

If you’re any sort of baseball bettor, you know Justin Verlander is as close to a sure thing as you can get right now.

He is 6-0 with a 0.72 ERA in his last six starts and he’s making it all look incredibly easy.

"I feel like I'm learning how to pitch better — learning how to use my stuff a little bit better," Verlander told reporters. "I feel like my fastball control this year has been a lot better than years previous, and I think that has a lot to do with the mentality that I've been taking out there — just nice and methodical, nice and easy the first few innings and establishing a rhythm."

Matt Cain (7-4, 3.22 ERA), San Francisco Giants

Cain is coming off another ho-hum seven-inning shutout that saw him blank the Indians while allowing just four hits. He struck out six and walked one.

Cain has sandwiched four great starts around one off outing. He gave up five runs against Arizona three starts ago but he hasn’t allowed more than a single run in the other four trips to the hill.

His WHIP checks in at 1.11 on the year.

Slumping

Aaron Cook (0-3, 5.48 ERA), Colorado Rockies

Cook hasn’t been able to find his trademark sinker since starting the season on the DL and it’s showing in his numbers.

He hasn’t won in four outings this season and he gave up a season-high 12 hits in his last start and ended up on the losing end of a 8-3 decision to the Yankees.

"I felt like I was making pitches early," Cook told reporters. "They just found a couple of holes, and then later in the game is when I started giving up the doubles."

Brian Matusz (1-3, 6.85 ERA), Baltimore Orioles

According to manager Buck Showalter, one of the main issues with Matusz is his confidence, which is a tough thing to get back when he’s allowed 14 runs over his last three starts.

Matusz was just drilled for six earned runs and three dingers in a 10-5 loss

"Obviously, psychologically and mentally, [he is not there]. Who is when you're struggling? But he's strong," Showalter said. "I think he has a real healthy respect for what you have to do to have success up here.”
 

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Hot lines: Thursday's best MLB bets

St. Louis Cardinals at Baltimore Orioles (N/A)

Wednesday was a tough day in the St. Louis clubhouse.

The Cards released former All-Star closer Ryan Franklin ahead of Wednesday night’s game and even though he was struggling on the mound, it’s a big loss to the organization.

"When you look at how he's pitched and how he's performed, it was something that we could no longer try to ignore or keep trying to find innings for someone that became very inconsistent," general manager John Mozeliak said. "Ultimately, what we were trying to do was to do what was best for the organization. Unfortunately, it was time to move on."

Franklin lost his closing job earlier this year after blowing three saves in the first 10 days of the season and then failing to find his way as a long reliever. St. Louis’ bullpen is still struggling, but probably won’t be needed much on Thursday with Jaime Garcia on the hill.

Pick: Cardinals

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros (+120, 8)

If you’ve been following the Houston Astros this season – our sympathies – you’ll know that one of their only bright spots is center fielder Michael Bourn.

The speedster had a seven-game hit streak heading into Wednesday night’s action and has stolen 34 bases while being caught only three times this season.

"I feel pretty good so far," he said. "I feel like I have been doing a lot of running. Every now and then, I feel it in my legs and I'm careful in what I'm doing. I maybe take it easy in batting practice while running and work on whatever I'm doing so I can save it for the game because that's the most important part."

Without Bourn, Houston’s offense would be in real trouble. The Astros sit 29th in the league with only 44 homers this season.

They’ve really been rolling out the overs and that’s how we see this one playing out.

Pick: Over
 

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Thursday, June 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 1:05 PM ET Philadelphia -121 500
Philadelphia - Under 7.5 500

Milwaukee - 1:05 PM ET Milwaukee +181 500
NY Yankees - Over 8.5 500

NY Mets - 1:05 PM ET NY Mets +201 500
Detroit - Under 7 500

San Francisco - 2:20 PM ET San Francisco -111 500
Chi. Cubs -

Chi. White Sox - 3:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -104 500
Colorado - Under 9 500

Florida - 3:35 PM ET Oakland -164 500
Oakland - Under 7 500
 

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