Canadian bacon: CFL Week 1 betting preview and picks

B.C. Lions at Montreal Alouettes (-6.5, 53)

Although they’re playing in front of their home fans, the two-time defending Grey Cup champs may find themselves on quite a bumpy road to start the season.

The Als have 15 or so players that were either acquired or bumped into new positions. The departure of Avon Cobourne (Hamilton) will be felt when it comes to pass protection, which is a crucial aspect of head coach Marc Trestman’s offence and where replacement Brandon Whittaker still struggles.

All of those changes will also make the special teams more vulnerable, as they fell apart in the final preseason game in Hamilton last week. Speaking of special teams, since the departure of veteran K Damon Duval, the non-import newcomer, Sean Whyte, has yet to prove his real value.

The Lions, who were so terrible in the first half of 2010, seem to have picked up where they left off and have shown a cohesive team in all aspects of the game at the end of training camp. Quarterback Travis Lulay will have more time to find his excellent receivers, if only because of a greatly improved offensive line following the acquisition of Ben Archibald.

Pick: Lions 28, Alouettes 24

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-9.0, 51.5)

As much as Avon Cobourne will be missed by the Alouettes, he will bring a lot to the Tiger-Cats offence with both his explosive runs and his brilliant blocks in pass protection.

The Tiger Cats have a well-balanced offence led by Kevin Glenn, who’s in full control of his skills, while offering one of the stingiest defensive squads, despite the losses of Geoff Tisdale (Calgary) and Bo Smith (retirement). Another key element is Justin Medlock, who’s probably one of the most reliable kickers in the CFL.

The biggest concern for the Blue Bombers will be the health of QB Buck Pierce. As long as he is on the field, Winnipeg will be able to compete with anyone. But the minute he will be injured, and it will happen knowing is history, it will be catastrophic, even if the likes of Huntley, Pile and Eiben can shut down any offence in this league.

Pick: Tiger-Cats 35, Blue Bombers 13

Toronto Argonauts at Calgary Stampeders (-7.5, 51)

The Toronto defense, despite all of its talent, will face a tough test against the Stampeders, especially in Calgary. Henry Burris still has at his disposal a very impressive group of receivers starting with Ken-Yon Rambo, Nik Lewis and Romby Bryant.

On the flip side, the Stampeders defense lost two key players during the offseason with the departures of cornerbacks Dwight Anderson (Alouettes) and Brandon Browner (NFL). Can Toronto QB Cleo Lemon take full advantage of this situation? That’s the big question in this game.

The faith of the Argos lies greatly on the arm of Lemon who, so far, has proven capable of good and bad decisions. He does have great weapons at his disposal, starting with exceptional players like Corey Boyd and Chad Owens. Both can also be game changers on special teams.

Pick: Stampeders 31, Argonauts 24

Edmonton Eskimos at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-7, 52.5)

The Roughriders will start the 2011 season without two key elements on offense: Robbie Baggs (injury) and Andy Fantusz (NFL). But Darian Durant can still count on Dressler, Clermont and Getzlaf to move the chains and score points.

If Durant can limit his interceptions, the Roughriders will slaughter the Eskimos, who will certainly once again be the poor parents of the CFL this season.

Quarterback Ricky Ray will suffer again behind an offensive line that seems has vulnerable as it was last year. The Eskimos defensive squad also appears to be one of the weakest in the league, despite the reliability of a few players like DT Jermaine Reid and DB Chris Johnson.

Pick: Roughriders 42, Eskimos 16

Montreal Alouettes Begin CFL Title Defense

The Canadian Football season is finally set to get started, and the first regular season battle to beat the CFL odds should be a doozy. Percival Molson Stadium will be the site of the clash of CFL titans, as the Montreal Alouettes open up defense of their Grey Cup title against the British Columbia Lions.

This is the first United States televised CFL game of the year on the NFL Network, but those in Canada can still see this 4:35 p.m. (PT) kickoff Thursday on TSN.

Things looked terrible at the start of the season for head coach Wally Buono and his Lions last year. They started off with a win over the Edmonton Eskimos, but proceeded to lose their next seven games, going 1-6 ATS in that stretch. However, things turned around with a 38-17 win over none other than these Alouettes right here on the campus of McGill University.

BC went on to win seven of its last 10 games to get into the playoffs. Of those losses, three came in overtime, and the other came by four points at home against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

Travis Lulay took over under center at the beginning of October last year, and though none of his statistics really jumped off the page, he was clearly the best option that the Leos had at their disposal. He finished the season with 2,602 yards and nine TDs against 11 picks.

The biggest problem that Lulay is going to have in this one is that he has arguably one of the best players in the history of this league throwing the ball on the other side of the field that he has to keep up with.

Anthony Calvillo threw for 4,839 yards last season to go with 32 TDs. The future Hall of Famer has thrown for over 68,000 yards in his career, and he is inching closer to the 400-TD barrier. Calvillo just seems to keep getting better and better with age. He has thrown for a total of 15,111 yards and 101 TDs against only 26 INTs over the course of the last three seasons, and he has a pair of Grey Cup titles in a row now to show for his work.

There were really only two major changes for the Als in the offseason. Ben Cahoon, one of the most reliable receivers that Calvillo ever had to work with retired, and Avon Cobourne left the team and is now with Hamilton.

Replacing wide receivers has never really been an issue, as Calvillo seems to be able to throw lasers all over the field regardless of his targets. The question is whether Brandon Whitaker, who spelled Cobourne last year in the backfield when he was injured, really has the ability to be an every down back or not.

For whatever reason, the Lions have always seemed to play well against Montreal. They are 20-7 ATS over the course of their last 27 meetings with the perennial East Division powers, including covering both sets of CFL betting lines last year.

If you're preparing to back either side of the 'total', check out the 'under'. Montreal has gone 16-1 for 'under' bettors over the course of its last 17 games played in the month of June, and it is also 8-3-1 in its last 12 home games.

The 'total' has already dropped from 56 1/2 down to 53. The defending champs are favored by seven points in their opener.

The weather should be cool in Quebec for this one, as temperatures are expected to be in the mid-60s with a chance of passing showers through the evening. Wind, which is always a factor in a lot of CFL betting battles, shouldn't be in this one. A relatively light westerly wind is expected.

All games in this series since 1996
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 24-10 against the spread versus MONTREAL since 1996
MONTREAL is 18-16 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA since 1996
17 of 33 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996

Games over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 3-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons





All games played at MONTREAL since 1996
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 13-4 against the spread versus MONTREAL since 1996
MONTREAL is 13-4 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA since 1996
9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996

Games played at MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 2-1 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 2-1 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons





Rushing Passing Turnovers Penalties
Date Teams Score Line Result Half FD TOP ATT-YDS CMP-ATT YDS FL INT PEN-YDS
9/3/2010 BRITISH COLUMBIA 38 50.5 SU ATS 14 21 29:33 16-119 16-34 274 0 3 12-115
MONTREAL 17 -10 Over 3 20 30:27 19-101 25-39 203 2 2 11-127
7/16/2010 MONTREAL 16 -4.5 SU Under 6 24 35:32 17-98 30-47 297 0 0 11-162
BRITISH COLUMBIA 12 56 ATS 9 19 24:28 9-7 20-40 253 1 2 9-130
11/22/2009 BRITISH COLUMBIA 18 53.5 Over 11 17 26:49 8-14 23-46 228 3 2 9-55
MONTREAL 56 -10.5 SU ATS 31 19 33:11 23-113 19-28 308 1 1 12-90
9/13/2009 BRITISH COLUMBIA 24 52.5 ATS 3 17 27:50 22-87 16-32 228 0 1 7-65
MONTREAL 28 -11.5 SU Under 13 26 32:10 19-90 29-41 334 2 1 7-75
9/4/2009 MONTREAL 12 -6 Under 7 15 28:52 17-124 18-29 271 1 0 7-70
BRITISH COLUMBIA 19 55 SU ATS 10 26 31:08 29-253 17-30 174 2 0 5-40


Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.

As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring Nobody in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in BRITISH COLUMBIA games 47.2% of the time since 1996. (59-66)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in BRITISH COLUMBIA games 46.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (13-15)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in MONTREAL games 57.7% of the time since 1996. (75-55)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in MONTREAL games 67.7% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (21-10)
No Edge.

As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the total in BRITISH COLUMBIA games 49.2% of the time since 1996. (60-62)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in BRITISH COLUMBIA games 44.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (12-15)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in MONTREAL games 50.4% of the time since 1996. (62-61)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in MONTREAL games 46.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (13-15)
No Edge.

Thursday, June 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount


BC Lions - 7:30 PM ET Montreal -6.5 500
Montreal - Over 54 500

Friday, July 1Game Score Status Pick Amount

Winnipeg - 6:00 PM ET Winnipeg +9.5 500
Hamilton - Over 53 500

Toronto - 9:00 PM ET Calgary -7.5 500
Calgary - Under 52 500

Sunday, July 3Game Score Status Pick Amount

Edmonton - 7:00 PM ET Saskatchewan -7 500
Saskatchewan - Over 53 500

Calgary Stampeders Host Toronto In Season-Opener

Canadian football continues its opening weekend on Friday as two playoff teams from last season go head-to-head. The Toronto Argonauts will battle the Calgary Stampeders in McMahon Stadium at 6:00 p.m. (PT) with live coverage brought by TSN.

Calgary had the best record in the CFL’s regular season a year ago and they are a 7½-point favorite over Toronto. The total opened up at 53 but, like every other CFL game so far, it has been bet down and now resides at 51.

Toronto was a strange team a season ago, coming up with big plays on defense and special teams to keep them afloat in the standings. They finished 9-9, won their division semifinals matchup, and then lost to Montreal who would become Grey Cup champions. The Argonauts’ defense ended up allowing the fewest points in the league per game (24.6) and on their special teams unit, a star was born.

Chad Owens racked up a ridiculous 2,701 return yards in 2010 and totaled over 3,000 overall. He will likely become a bigger part of their offense and that might be good news for the returning starter at quarterback, Cleo Lemon.

Lemon, the former Miami Dolphin and Jacksonville Jaguar, had a rough first season in the CFL. He had help from running back Cory Boyd, the CFL’s second leading rusher, but his 19 interceptions hurt the team. The Argos have hopes that his second year will be a success.

As for the Stampeders, they had were dominant and earned a first round bye in the postseason. They just fell short to the Saskatchewan Roughriders in the division finals, 20-16.

Henry Burris had another fantastic year at quarterback for Calgary, leading the league in touchdown passes and throwing for just under 5,000 yards. On top of that, Joffrey Reynolds was third in the league in rushing.

Their offense was prolific in 2010 and looks to be the same in 2011. The Stampeders led the league in scoring with 34.8 PPG and overall scored 105 points more than Montreal who was second. To go along with that unit was a defense that was third in points allowed per game (25.5).

The only real problem for the Stamps appears to be getting past Saskatchewan. Two years in a row the Roughriders have knocked Calgary out of Grey Cup contention in the West finals.

These two teams last met on Week 3 of last season which Toronto won, 27-24. Boyd rushed for 142 yards on the ground for the Argos and Burris threw four INTs for the Stamps.

While this is the first game of the season for both teams, the ‘under’ is 4-0 in their last four meetings in Calgary. Toronto is 0-5 in their last five games in Calgary straight up and against the spread.

CFL Betting Notes - Week 1

June 28, 2011

The 2011 Canadian Football League regular season kicks off this week with a full slate of games starting with the two-time defending Grey Cup Champions Montreal Alouettes hosting the British Columbia Lions on Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET.

The Alouettes open the season as the second favorites at +275 (Bet $100 to win $275) to win a third straight Grey Cup according to Sportsbook.com. The Calgary Stampeders have been made the preseason favorites at +250 (Bet $100 to win $250) with the 2009 and 2010 Grey Cup runner-up Saskatchewan Roughriders as the third choice (+550).
BC Lions at Montreal Alouettes (-6.5) Over/Under: 56.5

These two teams split their home-and-home series last season with Montreal winning 16-12 as a five-point road favorite in Week 3 and BC returning the favor as a 10.5 point road underdog with a 38-17 rout in Week 10. The total never threatened the 55-point line in the first game but the combined 55 points jumped ‘over’ the 50.5 line in the second installment.

Montreal has had its hands full with the Lions over the years especially at home where they are just 2-9 against the spread versus BC in the last 11 meetings. The trends also favor a high-scoring game at Percival- Molson Memorial Stadium where the total has gone ‘over’ in six of the last meetings from this venue. One matchup to watch in this one is the Alouettes perennial All-Star quarterback Anthony Calvillo going up against a Lion’s defense that was ranked fourth in the league last season against the pass.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-10) Over/Under: 53

The Blue Bombers and the Tiger-Cats are very familiar with one another given that both play in the East Division. Last season, Hamilton got the best of this series with three consecutive victories both straight-up and ATS after losing 49-29 as a three-point road favorite on opening day. The total was evenly split in the four games at 2-2 with both games in Hamilton staying ‘under’ the total.

Winnipeg is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games on the road in this series and the total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the last six meetings at Ivor Wynne Stadium. QB Buck Pierce will be back under center for the Blue Bombers after an injury plagued 2010 campaign. The Tiger-Cats will have 11-year veteran Kevin Glenn, who threw for over 5,100 yards last season, as their signal caller for their home opener.

Toronto Argonauts at Calgary Stampeders (-7.5) Over/Under: 53.5

Toronto staged a dramatic turnaround in 2010 by making the playoffs with a 9-9 record after winning just seven games combined the previous two seasons. One of those nine wins came at the expense of Calgary in a 27-24 victory in Week 3 as a 5.5-point home underdog. This followed an ugly 30-16 pasting at the hands of the Stampeders as a 13.5 point road underdog on opening day. The total barely stayed ‘under’ the 47.5-point line in that one and went ‘over’ the 48-point line the second time they met.

The Argonauts are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against Calgary and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Stampeders overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in the last four meetings at McMahon Stadium and in five of the last seven meetings overall. Toronto will start the season with QB Cleo Lemon who is filling in for the injured Steven Jyles. Last season as the Argos’ starter, Lemon threw 19 interceptions and just 15 touchdowns.

Edmonton Eskimos at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-7) Over/Under: 54.5

These two West Division rivals have staged some classic battles over the past few years with Edmonton holding a 4-3 edge SU and a 5-2 edge ATS in the series. Last season, the Eskimos won both games at home, but lost 24-20 in Week 3 as seven-point road underdogs and closed-out the season with a 31-23 loss as one-point road favorites. The total was evenly split 2-2, but the final two games did go ‘over’ the number.

The Roughriders are 11-3 SU against Edmonton at home in the last 14 games, but just 3-3 ATS in the last six during this stretch. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of the last 11 meetings at Mosaic Stadium and in five of the last eight overall. Edmonton struggled on the road in general last year with just two wins; getting outscored 311-164. The Roughriders are led by versatile QB Darian Durant, who led the CFL in passing yards last season with 5,542, while adding another 618 yards on the ground.