Yesterday 1 1 0 +0.44 Units
Last 30 Days 41 45 0 +7.88 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 111 132 1 -9.36 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Chicago –105 over COLORADO
Still not happy with the way the White Sox are swinging the bats but the Rockies aren’t exactly setting the world on fire either. In a park where runs are plentiful, these two have combined for 10 runs in the first two games of this series. That should change for the South Side here against Aaron Cook. Cook remains in the rotation despite the 0-3 record and 5.48 ERA only because the Rocks are paying him 10M this season. In Cook’s last three starts since coming off the DL the Rockies are 0-3 and have been outscored 20-5. Cook has a BAA of .344 and a WHIP of 1.74 and that’s after facing the Padres twice in his four starts. There is no upside here. Cook has a poor strikeout rate, a high walk rate and his xERA is in its third of a steady decline. Meanwhile, three of Jake Peavy’s last four starts were against the Rangers, Red Sox and Tigers. In his six starts and one long relief appearance (the score was 0-0 when he came in), the White Sox have won six of his seven games. Peavy has walked just seven batters while striking out 32 in 38 frames and he was especially sharp in his last appearance in which he allowed one hit in 4.1 frames in that aforementioned relief appearance when John Danks came up lame. So, what we have here is a pitcher that walks few and strikes out many against a pitcher that walks many and strikes out few. Throw in the Coors factor with those two profiles and it’s a no brainer in the South Side’s favor. Play Chicago –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Pittsburgh +129 over TORONTO
Last season, Brett Cecil took what appeared to be a step forward in first half but followed with a big 2H fade for second straight year. He made the team out of spring training (barely) and was whacked in four starts (1-2 with a 6.86 ERA) before being sent down. At Triple-A Las Vegas, Cecil went 8-2 but don’t be fooled by the record. Pay more attention to his 5.26 ERA against minor-leaguers. In the minors, his BAA vs righties was .288 and against lefties it was .275. In 12 starts for Las Vegas covering 89 IP, Cecil surrendered 15 jacks, and 46 earned runs. Pittsburgh is 6-2 on the road and 14-8 overall against southpaws and the one they’ll face here is fragile, ripe to get beat and it’s not going to take much to get him rattled. Jeff Karstens has been sneaky good. He's been helped by a 26%/84% hit %/strand %, but his 3.83 xERA is better than any other starter you can pull off the scrap heap. As a contact pitcher he doesn't have room for error, but an 88 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) is a good place to speculate. Karstens has a solid 1.10 WHIP after walking just 17 batters all year and allowing just 76 hits in 85 innings. Karstens ERA is 2.66 and he offers up much more value as a pooch than Cecil does as the chalk. Play: Pittsburgh +129 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 41 45 0 +7.88 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 111 132 1 -9.36 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Chicago –105 over COLORADO
Still not happy with the way the White Sox are swinging the bats but the Rockies aren’t exactly setting the world on fire either. In a park where runs are plentiful, these two have combined for 10 runs in the first two games of this series. That should change for the South Side here against Aaron Cook. Cook remains in the rotation despite the 0-3 record and 5.48 ERA only because the Rocks are paying him 10M this season. In Cook’s last three starts since coming off the DL the Rockies are 0-3 and have been outscored 20-5. Cook has a BAA of .344 and a WHIP of 1.74 and that’s after facing the Padres twice in his four starts. There is no upside here. Cook has a poor strikeout rate, a high walk rate and his xERA is in its third of a steady decline. Meanwhile, three of Jake Peavy’s last four starts were against the Rangers, Red Sox and Tigers. In his six starts and one long relief appearance (the score was 0-0 when he came in), the White Sox have won six of his seven games. Peavy has walked just seven batters while striking out 32 in 38 frames and he was especially sharp in his last appearance in which he allowed one hit in 4.1 frames in that aforementioned relief appearance when John Danks came up lame. So, what we have here is a pitcher that walks few and strikes out many against a pitcher that walks many and strikes out few. Throw in the Coors factor with those two profiles and it’s a no brainer in the South Side’s favor. Play Chicago –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Pittsburgh +129 over TORONTO
Last season, Brett Cecil took what appeared to be a step forward in first half but followed with a big 2H fade for second straight year. He made the team out of spring training (barely) and was whacked in four starts (1-2 with a 6.86 ERA) before being sent down. At Triple-A Las Vegas, Cecil went 8-2 but don’t be fooled by the record. Pay more attention to his 5.26 ERA against minor-leaguers. In the minors, his BAA vs righties was .288 and against lefties it was .275. In 12 starts for Las Vegas covering 89 IP, Cecil surrendered 15 jacks, and 46 earned runs. Pittsburgh is 6-2 on the road and 14-8 overall against southpaws and the one they’ll face here is fragile, ripe to get beat and it’s not going to take much to get him rattled. Jeff Karstens has been sneaky good. He's been helped by a 26%/84% hit %/strand %, but his 3.83 xERA is better than any other starter you can pull off the scrap heap. As a contact pitcher he doesn't have room for error, but an 88 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) is a good place to speculate. Karstens has a solid 1.10 WHIP after walking just 17 batters all year and allowing just 76 hits in 85 innings. Karstens ERA is 2.66 and he offers up much more value as a pooch than Cecil does as the chalk. Play: Pittsburgh +129 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
