Yesterday 2 0 0 +4.58 Units
Last 30 Days 41 44 0 +9.08 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 113 132 1 -4.78 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Pittsburgh +125 over WASHINGTON
If nothing else, the Nats are an interesting team to pay attention to. They’re streaky as hell, their manager just walked out on them, they have some outstanding young talent in Danny Espinoza, Michael Morse, Jordan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburgh (on DL) among others, yet they’re a pretty ugly favorite to bet on and you can double that when they’re going bad like they are now. Davey Johnson is 0-3 since taking over for Riggleman, who should’ve left some Wiggleroom. Over its last eight games, Washington is batting .197 and at one point last week they went 32 straight innings without scoring a run against the opposition’s starting pitcher. Throw out the 9-5 extra inning game against the White Sox in which the Nats scored no runs going to the eighth inning and this team has scored 13 runs in seven games and overall, the Nats have been held to two runs or less in five of its last eight games. By contrast, the Bucs are hitting .275 over that same eight-game stretch. They’ve won six of eight and that’s with a whole slew of regulars on the rack. They might be getting some healthy bodies back tonight but regardless of that, the Pirates are feeling a whole lot better than the Nats. Charlie Morton vs Tom Gorzelanny is an intriguing matchup because they’re so similar. Both have had some surprisingly outstanding starts and both have imploded too. Morton has had some extra days rest leading up to this one due to “fatigue” but don’t buy that. He needed to get his head on straight after a couple of rough starts. Anyway, let’s call the pitching match-up a wash, although we prefer Morton over Gorzelanny all day. Give the Pirates a big edge at the plate, in momentum and most importantly, in value. Play: Pittsburgh +125 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +150 over COLORADO
Danny Duffy doesn’t have the greatest surface stats and he’s a long way off from being an upper echelon chucker but there are some good signs that he’s settling in. The first thing you might notice about him is the 23 walks he’s issued in just 41 innings and at this park walking folks is not good strategy. However, Duffy had absolutely elite command in the minors the past two years and he’s only walked two batters over his last two starts. Duffy has considerable talent and he’s more relaxed out there now than when he first came up. He’s still whiffed 31 in 41 innings and he’ll be facing a Rockies team that has scored four runs or less in nine straight games. We mentioned last time Juan Nicasio pitched against the Yankees that he’s a hard throwing rightie that doesn’t do much of anything else but throw hard. It’s fastball after fastball after fastball and most of them are right down the heart of the dish. The Royals have been one of the most consistently good offenses in the league. They lose more than they win because they don’t have a single front line starter, not because of a lack of offense. The Royals are coming off a three game sweep in San Diego and have now lost nine of 12. However, the Rockies are also cold, having lost five of six and in this game, we prefer Duffy over Nicasio and the Royals offense over the laboring Rockies. Throw in this sweet tag and it seals the deal. Play: Kansas City +150 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +154 over TEXAS
The Marlins offense has been in neutral for almost a month but winning the past two games in Oakland and scoring eight times might just get them going. Alexi Ogando is a converted outfielder that came up in June last season and has been dealing it ever since...well, sort of. This is a guy that’s never pitched more than 85 innings in a single season and this year he’s already up to 90. Remember, those 80 or so innings he’s pitched before came over the course of a whole year while the 91 he’s thrown already this year has come over a half a season. It’s no mystery as to why he’s been absolutely rocked in three straight starts and it’s not likely to get better. Ron Washington would put a dying dog out there if he thought it could help him win a ball game and has been known to burn out pitchers before. Over his last three starts, Ogando has whiffed just five batters and that’s another sign of a guy running on fumes. His confidence is also shot and we also see the decline in his GB/LD/FB profile, which has gone from acceptable to an unacceptable 35%/26%/39% over the past month. Meanwhile, Anibal Sanchez is ready to join the elite. He’s the only pitcher in the najors since ’06 to throw a no-hitter and two one-hitters. At just 27 years of age, Sanchez is thriving on a low-90s fastball with a nasty slider and change that he can throw with confidence regardless of the count. Sanchez has a four-year decline in WHIP and his xERA is also trending the right way, He’s struck out 107 batters in 105 innings while walking just 29. Put it all together and what we have is a pitcher that is ready to be included in any conversation about elite starting pitchers in the league. Big overlay. Play: Florida +154 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 41 44 0 +9.08 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 113 132 1 -4.78 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Pittsburgh +125 over WASHINGTON
If nothing else, the Nats are an interesting team to pay attention to. They’re streaky as hell, their manager just walked out on them, they have some outstanding young talent in Danny Espinoza, Michael Morse, Jordan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburgh (on DL) among others, yet they’re a pretty ugly favorite to bet on and you can double that when they’re going bad like they are now. Davey Johnson is 0-3 since taking over for Riggleman, who should’ve left some Wiggleroom. Over its last eight games, Washington is batting .197 and at one point last week they went 32 straight innings without scoring a run against the opposition’s starting pitcher. Throw out the 9-5 extra inning game against the White Sox in which the Nats scored no runs going to the eighth inning and this team has scored 13 runs in seven games and overall, the Nats have been held to two runs or less in five of its last eight games. By contrast, the Bucs are hitting .275 over that same eight-game stretch. They’ve won six of eight and that’s with a whole slew of regulars on the rack. They might be getting some healthy bodies back tonight but regardless of that, the Pirates are feeling a whole lot better than the Nats. Charlie Morton vs Tom Gorzelanny is an intriguing matchup because they’re so similar. Both have had some surprisingly outstanding starts and both have imploded too. Morton has had some extra days rest leading up to this one due to “fatigue” but don’t buy that. He needed to get his head on straight after a couple of rough starts. Anyway, let’s call the pitching match-up a wash, although we prefer Morton over Gorzelanny all day. Give the Pirates a big edge at the plate, in momentum and most importantly, in value. Play: Pittsburgh +125 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +150 over COLORADO
Danny Duffy doesn’t have the greatest surface stats and he’s a long way off from being an upper echelon chucker but there are some good signs that he’s settling in. The first thing you might notice about him is the 23 walks he’s issued in just 41 innings and at this park walking folks is not good strategy. However, Duffy had absolutely elite command in the minors the past two years and he’s only walked two batters over his last two starts. Duffy has considerable talent and he’s more relaxed out there now than when he first came up. He’s still whiffed 31 in 41 innings and he’ll be facing a Rockies team that has scored four runs or less in nine straight games. We mentioned last time Juan Nicasio pitched against the Yankees that he’s a hard throwing rightie that doesn’t do much of anything else but throw hard. It’s fastball after fastball after fastball and most of them are right down the heart of the dish. The Royals have been one of the most consistently good offenses in the league. They lose more than they win because they don’t have a single front line starter, not because of a lack of offense. The Royals are coming off a three game sweep in San Diego and have now lost nine of 12. However, the Rockies are also cold, having lost five of six and in this game, we prefer Duffy over Nicasio and the Royals offense over the laboring Rockies. Throw in this sweet tag and it seals the deal. Play: Kansas City +150 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +154 over TEXAS
The Marlins offense has been in neutral for almost a month but winning the past two games in Oakland and scoring eight times might just get them going. Alexi Ogando is a converted outfielder that came up in June last season and has been dealing it ever since...well, sort of. This is a guy that’s never pitched more than 85 innings in a single season and this year he’s already up to 90. Remember, those 80 or so innings he’s pitched before came over the course of a whole year while the 91 he’s thrown already this year has come over a half a season. It’s no mystery as to why he’s been absolutely rocked in three straight starts and it’s not likely to get better. Ron Washington would put a dying dog out there if he thought it could help him win a ball game and has been known to burn out pitchers before. Over his last three starts, Ogando has whiffed just five batters and that’s another sign of a guy running on fumes. His confidence is also shot and we also see the decline in his GB/LD/FB profile, which has gone from acceptable to an unacceptable 35%/26%/39% over the past month. Meanwhile, Anibal Sanchez is ready to join the elite. He’s the only pitcher in the najors since ’06 to throw a no-hitter and two one-hitters. At just 27 years of age, Sanchez is thriving on a low-90s fastball with a nasty slider and change that he can throw with confidence regardless of the count. Sanchez has a four-year decline in WHIP and his xERA is also trending the right way, He’s struck out 107 batters in 105 innings while walking just 29. Put it all together and what we have is a pitcher that is ready to be included in any conversation about elite starting pitchers in the league. Big overlay. Play: Florida +154 (Risking 2 units).
