Yesterday 0 3 0 -6.00 Units
Last 30 Days 40 46 0 +3.08 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 113 135 1 -10.78 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Los Angeles +119 over L.A. ANGELS
Clayton Kershaw keeps getting better. In 2010, Kershaw was one of just four National League starters with 200+ strikeouts and an ERA under 3.00. Want to know the scariest thing about Kershaw? At age 23, he’s getting better with every start. Kershaw's increased velocity on his fastball (92.5 in 2010, 93.1 in 2011) and slider (81.2 in 2010, 83.4 in 2011) are all contributing to his success. Kershaw's ERA and corresponding xERA history back-up what we know to be true: this is an exciting arm. Look at that WHIP history. Kershaw is getting stingy with baserunners and the Dodgers are reaping the benefits. Even more exciting is Kershaw's control which took a huge step forward in 2010 and now again in 2011. The 132 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) says it all. This is an elite skill set getting better before our eyes. As Kershaw's back-to-back six-run outings to open the month of June illustrate, young pitchers are more susceptible to the occasional blowup. The good news is that those blowups provide us with the occasional take-back opportunity and this is one of those rare times that you’re going to get a tag on perhaps the best lefty in the league or pretty damn close. We could tell you all about Jered Weaver but in this case it’s does not matter. When a tag is being offered on Kershaw, take it every time, as it’s a winning proposition over time. Play: Los Angeles +119 (Risking 2 units).
DETROIT –1½ +128 over San Francisco
Here’s what we know for sure: The Tigers offense is one of the best in the league while the Giants offense is like an 80-year-old walking up a hill. We also know that the Tigers bats are hot right now with a BA of .294 over their past 10 games with 52 runs scored. The Giants offense will never be hot nor warm. So, in terms of offense this one is a complete mismatch. The Giants win ball games because of a pitching staff that is as good and as reliable as any in the game. Give them the Royals, Yanks, Twins or Indians staff and they’d probably have the worst record in baseball. Well, Barry Zito would have a tough time cracking the rotation of any of those aforementioned clubs and he certainly doesn’t belong on this one. Yeah, he threw an ok game against the Cubbies upon his return off the DL but so what. Lots of folks look good at against that Wrigley/Cubbies combo. Fact is, Zito is a stiff of the highest order. He’s struck out nine in his 20 innings of work thus far while walking 10. His fastball tops out at 84 MPH and his two other pitches, the change and curve are both about as average as it gets. So, yeah, he fooled a few Cubbies, but he's not not going to fool the Tigers. This is a guy with no upside and less skill and if the Tigers don’t score at least six runs in this game it’ll be a big surprise. Max Scherzer is a quality pitcher and a quality pitcher against the Giants is pure gold because they scratch and claw to score anything on bad pitchers. Play: Detroit –1½ +128 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +117 over SEATTLE
Regardless of whether or not these bets win they’re a good bet simply because at worst they’re a 50/50 proposition. In other words, if you were offered +117 on a coin toss, you would make that wager all day long for as long as you could and that’s essentially what we’re doing here by backing the Padres and Clayton Kershaw. Over time, these are winning propositions. Coty Luebke is definitely pitching under the radar. He’s actually appeared in 30 games this season with just one start. However, he’s not a reliever, he’s a starter, always has been and he may never lose his spot in the rotation again. Luebke has outstanding stuff with great control. He has 49 K’s in 44 IP with just 17 walks. He has a 0.95 WHIP to go along with a 2.86 ERA, which isn’t far off his xERA of 3.13. Luebke also has a solid GB/LD/FB profile of 45%/13%/41% and the Mariners are going to be hard pressed to muster anything off him. Doug Fister is having a very good year. He’s a soft-tosser with strong control, so his margin for error is slight. His 3.18 ERA and 1.20 WHIP have been helped by his home field somewhat, but he does have a 3.55 ERA on the road, so his split isn't that extreme. Having said that, his numbers are largely the product of an elevated strand rate (77%). His projected production, including a low expected win total, due in part to Seattle's putrid offense, make him a player on whom you should probably pass up on when being asked to lay a price. Let’s hop this one comes up tails. Play: San Diego +117 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 40 46 0 +3.08 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 113 135 1 -10.78 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Los Angeles +119 over L.A. ANGELS
Clayton Kershaw keeps getting better. In 2010, Kershaw was one of just four National League starters with 200+ strikeouts and an ERA under 3.00. Want to know the scariest thing about Kershaw? At age 23, he’s getting better with every start. Kershaw's increased velocity on his fastball (92.5 in 2010, 93.1 in 2011) and slider (81.2 in 2010, 83.4 in 2011) are all contributing to his success. Kershaw's ERA and corresponding xERA history back-up what we know to be true: this is an exciting arm. Look at that WHIP history. Kershaw is getting stingy with baserunners and the Dodgers are reaping the benefits. Even more exciting is Kershaw's control which took a huge step forward in 2010 and now again in 2011. The 132 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) says it all. This is an elite skill set getting better before our eyes. As Kershaw's back-to-back six-run outings to open the month of June illustrate, young pitchers are more susceptible to the occasional blowup. The good news is that those blowups provide us with the occasional take-back opportunity and this is one of those rare times that you’re going to get a tag on perhaps the best lefty in the league or pretty damn close. We could tell you all about Jered Weaver but in this case it’s does not matter. When a tag is being offered on Kershaw, take it every time, as it’s a winning proposition over time. Play: Los Angeles +119 (Risking 2 units).
DETROIT –1½ +128 over San Francisco
Here’s what we know for sure: The Tigers offense is one of the best in the league while the Giants offense is like an 80-year-old walking up a hill. We also know that the Tigers bats are hot right now with a BA of .294 over their past 10 games with 52 runs scored. The Giants offense will never be hot nor warm. So, in terms of offense this one is a complete mismatch. The Giants win ball games because of a pitching staff that is as good and as reliable as any in the game. Give them the Royals, Yanks, Twins or Indians staff and they’d probably have the worst record in baseball. Well, Barry Zito would have a tough time cracking the rotation of any of those aforementioned clubs and he certainly doesn’t belong on this one. Yeah, he threw an ok game against the Cubbies upon his return off the DL but so what. Lots of folks look good at against that Wrigley/Cubbies combo. Fact is, Zito is a stiff of the highest order. He’s struck out nine in his 20 innings of work thus far while walking 10. His fastball tops out at 84 MPH and his two other pitches, the change and curve are both about as average as it gets. So, yeah, he fooled a few Cubbies, but he's not not going to fool the Tigers. This is a guy with no upside and less skill and if the Tigers don’t score at least six runs in this game it’ll be a big surprise. Max Scherzer is a quality pitcher and a quality pitcher against the Giants is pure gold because they scratch and claw to score anything on bad pitchers. Play: Detroit –1½ +128 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +117 over SEATTLE
Regardless of whether or not these bets win they’re a good bet simply because at worst they’re a 50/50 proposition. In other words, if you were offered +117 on a coin toss, you would make that wager all day long for as long as you could and that’s essentially what we’re doing here by backing the Padres and Clayton Kershaw. Over time, these are winning propositions. Coty Luebke is definitely pitching under the radar. He’s actually appeared in 30 games this season with just one start. However, he’s not a reliever, he’s a starter, always has been and he may never lose his spot in the rotation again. Luebke has outstanding stuff with great control. He has 49 K’s in 44 IP with just 17 walks. He has a 0.95 WHIP to go along with a 2.86 ERA, which isn’t far off his xERA of 3.13. Luebke also has a solid GB/LD/FB profile of 45%/13%/41% and the Mariners are going to be hard pressed to muster anything off him. Doug Fister is having a very good year. He’s a soft-tosser with strong control, so his margin for error is slight. His 3.18 ERA and 1.20 WHIP have been helped by his home field somewhat, but he does have a 3.55 ERA on the road, so his split isn't that extreme. Having said that, his numbers are largely the product of an elevated strand rate (77%). His projected production, including a low expected win total, due in part to Seattle's putrid offense, make him a player on whom you should probably pass up on when being asked to lay a price. Let’s hop this one comes up tails. Play: San Diego +117 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
