Yesterday 1 2 0 -1.66 Units
Last 30 Days 40 47 0 +1.12 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 114 137 1 -12.44 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Arizona +110 over OAKLAND
We find another one of those 50/50 (at worst) propositions here taking back a tag and that makes the D-Backs a solid investment. Ian Kennedy pitches half his games in one of the friendlier pitcher parks in the majors yet he still has put up tremendous numbers. Kennedy has 97 k’s and just 30 walks in 116 frames. He’s 8-2 overall with a solid 3.01 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. On the road it gets even better. Away from Chase Field, Kennedy is 5-0 with an ERA of 2.28 and he’ll face an A’s team that has some of the ugliest offensive numbers in the league. Gio Gonzalez is solid too. His control isn’t as sharp as Kennedy’s but his strikeout rate is. Gonzalez has whiffed 99 in 102 innings while issuing 46 BB. His ERA is 2.38 but it’s been aided by an unusually high strand rate of 83% and that’s one of the highest rates in the league among starters. Gonzalez is a southpaw and that plays into one of Arizona's strengths, as the Diamondbacks .740 OPS against LHP ranks second in the NL. The D-Backs chances of winning here are just as good and probably better than the A’s chances. Play: Arizona +110 (Risking 2 units).
TEXAS –1½ +107 over Florida
C.J. Wilson is quietly putting together a season that puts him in the elite category. Here’s a guy that has struck out 100 batters and walked just 38 in 118 innings. He has a strong GB/LD/FB profile of 47%/20%/33% and he’ll face a Marlins squad that has won just nine of 23 games against southpaws. Furthermore, only the Mariners 53 runs scored are less than the Marlins 61 scored over the last 20 games. Over that stretch the Marlins are batting .223. Even in the unlikely event that the Marlins score a few it should not get in the way of cashing this ticket. Javier Vazquez at this park is a complete disaster waiting to happen. Vazquez has surrendered 99 hits in 83 IP and has a low strikeout rate to go along with his high BAA. In two starts at this park over the past three seasons, Vazquez has an ERA of 9.64. Current Ranger hitters have a combined 108 AB’s against Vazquez and they’re hitting a combined .361 with an OBP of .400, a slugging % of .546 and a OPS of .946. This one has ugly written all over it and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Marlins pen is running strictly on fumes. Play: Texas –1½ +107 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –136 over CHICAGO
This is a rare wager in that we’re laying more juice in this game than we have in years simply because Rodrigo Lopez and the Cubs are the worst possible combination in baseball and it’s not close. After getting whacked by a weak Giant offense for 10 runs in four-plus IP, the Cubs gave Doug Davis his unconditional release after Wednesday's game and now his MLB career could be over. Enter recently acquired Rodrigo Lopez. Lopez offers less than Davis. He falls behind every hitter and ends up walking a bunch. When he isn’t throwing balls he’s throwing fastballs right down Broadway. He’s made two starts this year and nine relief appearances. In his two starts against San Fran and Houston, he didn’t make it out of the fifth inning in either. He lasted a combined 9.1 innings (4.2 innings in both starts) and gave up 18 hits, two bombs and 10 runs. Again, note the two teams he faced (San Fran and Houston). The South Side should and likely will chew this guy up and spit him out. Frankly, it does not matter who is going for the White Sox, as this game, despite laying 36 cents, is a big underlay because any team anywhere near .500 or better should be a 2-1 favorite over Rodrigo Lopez pitching for the Cubbies. Play: Chicago White Sox –136 (Risking 3 units to win 2.2 units).
Last 30 Days 40 47 0 +1.12 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 114 137 1 -12.44 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Arizona +110 over OAKLAND
We find another one of those 50/50 (at worst) propositions here taking back a tag and that makes the D-Backs a solid investment. Ian Kennedy pitches half his games in one of the friendlier pitcher parks in the majors yet he still has put up tremendous numbers. Kennedy has 97 k’s and just 30 walks in 116 frames. He’s 8-2 overall with a solid 3.01 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. On the road it gets even better. Away from Chase Field, Kennedy is 5-0 with an ERA of 2.28 and he’ll face an A’s team that has some of the ugliest offensive numbers in the league. Gio Gonzalez is solid too. His control isn’t as sharp as Kennedy’s but his strikeout rate is. Gonzalez has whiffed 99 in 102 innings while issuing 46 BB. His ERA is 2.38 but it’s been aided by an unusually high strand rate of 83% and that’s one of the highest rates in the league among starters. Gonzalez is a southpaw and that plays into one of Arizona's strengths, as the Diamondbacks .740 OPS against LHP ranks second in the NL. The D-Backs chances of winning here are just as good and probably better than the A’s chances. Play: Arizona +110 (Risking 2 units).
TEXAS –1½ +107 over Florida
C.J. Wilson is quietly putting together a season that puts him in the elite category. Here’s a guy that has struck out 100 batters and walked just 38 in 118 innings. He has a strong GB/LD/FB profile of 47%/20%/33% and he’ll face a Marlins squad that has won just nine of 23 games against southpaws. Furthermore, only the Mariners 53 runs scored are less than the Marlins 61 scored over the last 20 games. Over that stretch the Marlins are batting .223. Even in the unlikely event that the Marlins score a few it should not get in the way of cashing this ticket. Javier Vazquez at this park is a complete disaster waiting to happen. Vazquez has surrendered 99 hits in 83 IP and has a low strikeout rate to go along with his high BAA. In two starts at this park over the past three seasons, Vazquez has an ERA of 9.64. Current Ranger hitters have a combined 108 AB’s against Vazquez and they’re hitting a combined .361 with an OBP of .400, a slugging % of .546 and a OPS of .946. This one has ugly written all over it and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Marlins pen is running strictly on fumes. Play: Texas –1½ +107 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –136 over CHICAGO
This is a rare wager in that we’re laying more juice in this game than we have in years simply because Rodrigo Lopez and the Cubs are the worst possible combination in baseball and it’s not close. After getting whacked by a weak Giant offense for 10 runs in four-plus IP, the Cubs gave Doug Davis his unconditional release after Wednesday's game and now his MLB career could be over. Enter recently acquired Rodrigo Lopez. Lopez offers less than Davis. He falls behind every hitter and ends up walking a bunch. When he isn’t throwing balls he’s throwing fastballs right down Broadway. He’s made two starts this year and nine relief appearances. In his two starts against San Fran and Houston, he didn’t make it out of the fifth inning in either. He lasted a combined 9.1 innings (4.2 innings in both starts) and gave up 18 hits, two bombs and 10 runs. Again, note the two teams he faced (San Fran and Houston). The South Side should and likely will chew this guy up and spit him out. Frankly, it does not matter who is going for the White Sox, as this game, despite laying 36 cents, is a big underlay because any team anywhere near .500 or better should be a 2-1 favorite over Rodrigo Lopez pitching for the Cubbies. Play: Chicago White Sox –136 (Risking 3 units to win 2.2 units).
