Cnotes Tuesday's MLB Best Bets !

Lester And Red Sox Battle Blue Jays

Jon Lester will be looking for his first win at Fenway Park since May 20.
The Boston Red Sox will have four players participating in the MLB All-Star Game on July 12, but starting pitcher Jon Lester will not be one of them unless he is called upon to replace somebody.

Lester (10-4, 3.43 ERA) will take the hill on Tuesday against the Toronto Blue Jays, hoping to win a home start for the first time since May 20. Game time is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. (PT).

First baseman Adrian Gonzalez, designated hitter David Oritz, outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury and starting pitcher Josh Beckett are Red Sox who were named to the American League All-Star team on Sunday while the Blue Jays had the top overall vote-getter in outfielder Jose Bautista.

Bautista, the reigning home run champion, leads the majors in homers again this year and set an All-Star Game record with 7,454,753 votes.

While his pitching credentials have been solid overall this season, Lester has not performed exceptionally well at Fenway Park. He is just 3-3 in six starts there with a 4.54 ERA, losing two straight at home since beating the Chicago Cubs more than six weeks ago. Even in that win against Chicago, Lester surrendered five runs and 12 hits in six innings of a 15-5 rout.

Nine of Lester’s past 13 starts have come on the road, and he is coming off a brilliant outing at Philadelphia last Thursday. He allowed only two hits in seven scoreless innings of a 5-2 victory to break a personal two-game skid and cash as an underdog for the first time this season.

Lester is 9-4 lifetime vs. Toronto in 16 starts with a 3.40 ERA, and has been favored in each of his previous 16 starts this year.

The Blue Jays will send lefty Brett Cecil (1-3, 7.24) to the mound, and he will be making just his second start in the big leagues since April 20. Cecil had made 12 starts at Triple-A Las Vegas to improve his arm strength prior to getting called back up, going 8-2 with a 5.26 ERA after struggling with a 1-2 mark and 6.86 ERA in his first four starts with Toronto.

Cecil did not turn in a good effort in his first start back with the Blue Jays last Thursday against Pittsburgh, giving up all six runs and eight hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 6-2 home loss. He suffered the setback as a 145 favorite after Toronto split his previous two starts as an underdog.

One of those outings came at Boston on April 15, with Cecil allowing just two hits – both home runs – and three runs overall in a 7-6 win. The Blue Jays won that game as +165 underdogs and will likely have a similar price here against the Red Sox.

The weather forecast for Tuesday in Boston is mostly sunny and a high temperature of 87 degrees cooling to a low of 65 under mostly-clear skies at night.

St. Louis Cardinals Clash With Cincinnati Reds

Jaime Garcia looks to continue his fine pitching at Busch Stadium.
National League Central rivals duke it out at Busch Stadium on Tuesday night in MLB betting action, as the Cincinnati Reds look to make up ground on the St. Louis Cardinals.

Both of these contenders are hoping this series serves as a launching point for their run in the NL Central, and considering how close these two teams are in the standings, this is a series of utmost importance.

This battle to beat the MLB odds is slated to throw out the first pitch at 4:09 p.m. (PT) on Tuesday, and there will be live television coverage on ESPN.

The man of the hour for Reds manager Dusty Baker on Tuesday is going to be Edinson Volquez, who just turned 28 years old this week. The righty from the Dominican Republic is only 5-3 on the season, and has posted a career-worst 5.65 ERA.

In fact, this isn't nearly only stat that is as bad as it has ever gotten for Volquez. In seasons in which he has thrown at least 40 innings, Volquez has never had a WHIP anywhere near as bad as the 1.63 that he has in 2011, and he is just about on pace to break his career high in walks. Right now, Volquez has issued 53 free passes in 79 2/3 innings of work, 40 shy of his career-worst.

Volquez is just 1-2 in his career against St. Louis with a 4.94 ERA. Earlier this season, he took the 'L' in an outing in which he allowed three runs in 5 2/3 innings.

Jaime Garcia has been up and down for the Cards this season, but when you look at his holistic numbers, he has been awfully impressive. The southpaw is 7-3 with a 3.33 ERA.

Manager Tony LaRussa knows that Garcia has those inconsistencies. Case in point: Garcia has allowed five runs in each of his last two starts, and he surrendered 12 runs in 3 1/3 innings of work against the Colorado Rockies back on May 28. In the interim, he has only allowed a grand total of nine runs in 24 1/3 innings.

Pitching at home has been great this year for Garcia for the most part, though. He is 4-1 with a 0.88 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. Batters are also only hitting .173 against him as well at Busch Stadium.

Garcia has baffled the Reds in his career, winning all four of his starts. The lefty has a 4.33 ERA, but he just continues to find ways to win games.

The Reds have already taken four of the six games in this series, but the home team has won five of the six as well. In the most recent 3-game set of these rivals, Cincinnati posted a healthy 22 runs en route to a sweep.

Coming into this series, the Reds are 15-6 in their last 21 games played in division. However, the Cards are 36-17 over the course of their last 53 home games against teams with winning records. Cincinnati is also just 18-43 in its last 61 games in St. Louis.

It'll be a hot one in St. Louis on Tuesday. Expect temperatures in the high-80s with light easterly winds and a minimal chance for rain.

Around the Horn - Tuesday

July 4, 2011

NATIONAL LEAGUE


Chicago at Washington - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Ortiz (NR) 4-6 L10 1-5 L6 away vs LHP
Detwiler (NR) 2-5 L7 4-1 L5 home Game 2's


Houston at Pittsburgh - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Rodriguez (6-4, 2.97 ERA) 2-8 L10 2-6 L8 away Game 2's
Karstens (6-4, 2.65 ERA) 8-4 L12 UNDER 8-3 home vs LHP


Philadelphia at Florida - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hamels (9-4, 2.41 ERA) 5-2 L7 4-2 L6 away Game 2's
Volstad (4-7, 5.01 ERA) 5-5 L10 OVER 5-1 L6 home vs LHP


Colorado at Atlanta - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Chacin (8-5, 3.10 ERA) 3-6 L9 UNDER 8-2 L10 away vs RHP
Lowe (4-6, 4.16 ERA) 5-1 L6 OVER 5-1 L6 home Game 2's


Cincinnati at St. Louis - 7:15 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Volquez (5-3, 5.65 ERA) 5-5 L10 5-2 L7 away vs division
Garcia (7-3, 3.33 ERA) 4-2 L6 8-4 home Game 2's


Arizona at Milwaukee - 8:10 PM EST Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Duke (1-3, 5.92 ERA) 2-6 L8 6-2 L8 away vs LHP
Wolf (6-5, 3.33 ERA) 1-5 L6 6-3 home vs LHP


N.Y. Mets at Los Angeles - 10:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Pelfrey (4-7, 4.92 ERA) 5-3 L8 OVER 7-3 away vs LHP
Lilly (5-8, 4.97 ERA) 3-6 L9 3-10 home Game 2's


San Diego at San Francisco - 10:15 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Stauffer (4-5, 2.97 ERA) 5-2 L7 7-4 away Game 2's
Cain (7-4, 3.02 ERA) 9-3 L12 UNDER 8-1 L9 home Game 2's


AMERICAN LEAGUE


N.Y. Yankees at Cleveland - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Sabathia (11-4, 3.05 ERA) 7-1 L8 9-3 away Game 2's
Carrasco (8-4, 3.54 ERA) 4-2 L6 UNDER 4-0 L4 home vs LHP


Toronto at Boston - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Cecil (1-3, 7.24 ERA) 2-5 L7 OVER 8-2 away vs LHP
Lester (10-4, 3.43 ERA) 5-2 L7 10-5 home vs LHP


Baltimore at Texas - 8:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Atkins (NR) 1-5 L6 0-6 L6 away Game 2's
Harrison (6-7, 3.30 ERA) 5-5 L10 OVER 10-3 home Game 2's


Tampa Bay at Minnesota - 8:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Shields (8-5, 2.45 ERA) 7-3 L10 7-2 L9 away vs RHP
Baker (6-5, 3.15 ERA) 3-8 L11 7-1 L8 home vs RHP


Kansas City at Chicago - 8:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Paulino (0-6, 4.29 ERA) 1-5 L6 0-8 L8 away Game 2's
Peavy (4-1, 4.47 ERA) 7-4 L11 UNDER 4-1 L5 home Game 2's


Seattle at Oakland - 10:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hernandez (8-7, 3.35 ERA) 3-5 L8 OVER 5-0-1 away vs division
Cahill (8-6, 3.28 ERA) 4-7 L11 6-1 L7 home vs division


Detroit at L.A. Angels - 10:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Verlander (11-3, 2.32 ERA) 2-4 L6 9-17 away vs RHP
Haren (8-5, 2.85 ERA) 7-2 L9 4-2 home L6 vs RHP

MLB Betting Notes

July 4, 2011

Time to Fade
All-Star managers will announce their bench players and pitching staffs this week so along the same lines, I thought I’d announce Las Vegas’ All-Stars, the best bet-against pitchers for the first half of the season.

How many times have you looked at a baseball sheet, check out who’s pitching and force a bet just from their name alone? It happens all the time, but usually we look at the pitchers we expect to win like a Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee or C.C. Sabathia.

It’s quite often that many of us take those pitchers and opt to take the run-line with them to shorten the price. But sometimes, it’s better to look at pitchers to bet against because they seem to really be bad all the time. The great pitcher can still be great and win 2-1, but the bad pitcher really takes some skill to continuously get beat by two runs or more all season.

Sometimes you almost feel guilty for picking on one these kids, but they’ve established a trend. They’re bad and they do it well.

The best awful pitcher going right now is J.A. Happ (3-10) of the Astros. I realize Houston wants to give him major league time, but every time he goes out there he gets blasted. How many times is he supposed to learn a lesson from getting hammered? The way he’s going, 20 losses this season is very obtainable.

In his time with Philadelphia we saw glimpses that he might be a really good pitcher, and he still might be, but right now he’s the hottest bet-against pitcher in baseball. The Astros have lost his last nine starts and eight of them have been by two runs or more. Every five days since May 19 bettors can rely on a return of their investment by betting against him. And in eight of those nine losses, the run-line has been has cashed.

In his 17 starts this season the Astros lost 14 of them with 11 being by two-runs or more. In early May he had a run going where he won two of three starts but he hasn’t won since. He’s currently mired in a skide where he gets progressively worse with each appearance. In his last five steps to the mound the Astros have been beat by four runs or more which gives great comfort to bettors not having to sweat the close games.

Roy Halladay has similar numbers from the winning side, but Happ’s ability to allow his team to lose by two runs or more make him the biggest fade or bet-against pitcher in baseball.

There was a collective sorrow felt in sports book across Nevada when Kyle Davies (1-7) went on the disabled list following his start on May 16, a 19-1 beat down by Cleveland because Davies was a roll.

After the Royals won two of his first three starts of the season, Davies got into a serious funk for the club that started the season red-hot. In his next six, he earned six losses for Kansas City. When Davies started for the first time since then last Saturday, he picked up right where he left off with a 9-6 loss to the Rockies. In the Royals’ eight losses this season that Davies has appeared, seven have been by two-runs or more.

Not quite sure how he did it, but the Cubbies Doug Davis (1-7) shocked the betting community with his June 17 win over the mighty Yankees in their visit to Wrigley field allowing only one run. Other than that, though, Davis has been very consistent with the Chicago Cubs losing all eight of his other starts. It’s a shame we missed him for the first six weeks of the baseball season while he was in retirement mode, but we’re thankful the Cubs continue to show faith in him and put him on the mound every five days.

However, if he has another outing like he did last week against the Giants where he gave up 10 runs in four innings, the gravy train could be over and the Cubs may give one of their prospects a shot at starting. In the Cubs eight losses he’s started, they have been beat by two runs or more seven times.

Jamie Guthrie (3-9) has had a decent career but he’s having an awful time of it in 2011. The Orioles are 6-12 in his starts this season. Although the team is 2-2 in his last four starts, he was brilliant earlier this season when the Orioles went through a stretch where they lost seven of his eight starts -- all by two runs of more. Of the 12 losses the O’s have experienced, 11 have been by two runs or more which is pretty consistent and more reliable than betting one of those winning pitchers.

Fausto Carmona (4-10) can really irritate you once in a while with a good performance, but he’s been consistently bad all season, especially since the middle of May. The Indians are 7-11 with him on the mound and only two of those 11 losses loss have come by one-run. Since May 19, the Indians are 2-7 with Carmona toeing the rubber.

Have a Coke and smile when Phil Coke (1-8) is on the mound. Because of a few instances where he has pitched well, Coke even finds himself as the favorite occasionally, but overall the Tigers are 5-11 when he takes the mound. The Tigers are currently on a stretch where they’ve lost four of his last five starts.

Clayton Richard (4-9) is doing his best to get off the dubious list after winning his last two starts, but we can’t forget about how great he was prior when the Padres lost 12 of his 15 starts. He was so reliable at one point that the Padres had lost 10 games over an 11-game stretch he started. However, Richard gets points taken away in the polling because the Padres lost by one-run five times during that stretch.

Doug Fister (3-9) has really good stuff, but never gets any help from Seattle‘s bats. Because of the good stuff he has, many bettors shy away from him and even choose to bet on him, but he’s currently on a streak where the Mariners have lost five of his last six starts. Overall, the M’s are 5-12 in his starts, yet he still maintains a nice 3.02 ERA. The best bet with Fister this season has been a two-team parlay of betting against him and the UNDER. In his last six starts, that combo has worked out four times.

MLB Series Outlook: Philadelphia at Florida

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (53-32, +9.7 Units)

at FLORIDA MARLINS (38-46, -7.4 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: Philadelphia -160, Florida +130

Coming off of their run through interleague play in which they took three straight series from Oakland, Boston, and Toronto, the Phillies prepare to jump back into National League East division competition with a trip to south Florida to take on the struggling Marlins. The last time that the Phils and Marlins squared off, Florida was in the middle of an 11-game losing streak, which was preceded by a win and an eight-game losing streak. Philadelphia swept Florida four straight games. Two days later Marlins manager Edwin Rodriguez resigned (losing 19 of 20 will do that to a man). The Phillies have not slowed down much since that sweep. With a record of 53-32, the NL East-leading Phils have the best record in the major leagues.

The Marlins should be able to give Philly a pretty good run for its money, if for no other reason than the fact that they will not have to contend with 2011 All-Stars Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, who have been close to untouchable of late (at least Lee was until he gave up three home runs in the eighth inning Sunday in a 7-4 loss). The Phillies big four rotation of ace starters is now down to the big three with Roy Oswalt on the DL. Throw Halladay and Lee out of the mix for this series, and Cole Hamels under .500 lifetime versus Florida and we have the potential for a surprise. My pick is for FLORIDA to win the series.

The FoxSheets also back the Marlins with this trend.

FLORIDA is 22-6 (78.6%, +15.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 5.0, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 2*).

The Marlins are 5-5 in their past 10 games, and have 80-year-old Jack McKeon back at the helm. Some in Miami dream of seeing Trader Jack re-kindle the spirit of 2003 when the skipper led the team to its second world title. The realists around the team would simply be happy with a return to respectability. That return appears to be within reach, albeit a very distant, work in progress sort of reach.

The Marlins have won two straight series, and are winners of four of their past five games. Despite an offense ranked in the bottom third of the league in runs scored and hitting, the bats have awoken of late, producing 28 runs in the past five games. Philadelphia is trying to get the bats of two key starters going, All-Star third baseman Placido Polanco and LF Raul Ibanez. Polanco has three hits in 24 at-bats, including an 0-for 12 collar over the weekend in Toronto. He has seen his average drop from .398 in April to its present .277. Ibanez batted .211 in the month of June with just five RBI and has one hit thus far in July.

Pitching Probables for Monday, July 4 - 6:10 ET
Monday line: Philadelphia -105, Florida -105, Total: 8
PHI: 5-2 (+3.05 Units) when Vance Worley starts
FLA: 7-10 (-4.60 Units) when Ricky Nolasco starts
While Philadelphia is 17-4 overall in games played at Florida over the past three seasons, they have been fortunate enough to avoid Ricky Nolasco (5-4, 4.08 ERA) for the most part. He has faced the Phils only three times in three years. For his career, the right-hander has shown consistent effectiveness versus Philly, going 6-2 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. He is coming off a complete-game, five-hit shutout over Oakland June 29.
Worley (3-1, 2.57 ERA) has faced the Marlins just once in his brief career, losing to them in September of last year when he allowed two runs on six hits over five innings, striking out five. We can allow Worley some slack, given that it was his major-league debut as a starter. Worley has stepped into the rotation spot formerly filled by Roy Oswalt, who went on the 15-day DL on June 24.

Pitching Probables for Tuesday, July 5 - 7:10 ET
Tuesday line: TBD
PHI: 11-6 (+1.45 Units) when Cole Hamels starts
FLA: 8-8 (+0.65 Units) when Chris Volstad starts
The Phillies will be keeping a very close eye on how Hamels (9-4, 2.41 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) progresses, and hopes he can avoid fielding any line drives, after his scare last Thursday versus Boston when he took a liner off his non-pitching hand and was forced to leave the contest early after four innings. Hamels is 2-0 this year against Florida, defeating the fish two weeks ago in Philadelphia, and out-dueling Anibal Sanchez back in April.
Volstad (4-7, 5.21 ERA) struggled in his last outing versus the Phils, allowing eight runs and 10 hits in 5.2 innings. Volstad is coming off of one of his stronger pitching efforts, a seven-inning outing against Oakland, in which he allowed one run and seven hits.

Pitching Probables for Wednesday, July 6 - 7:10 ET
Wednesday line: TBD
PHI: 3-3 (-0.10 Units) when Kyle Kendrick starts
FLA: 8-9 (-1.60 Units) when Anibal Sanchez starts
In his last start versus the Phillies, Sanchez (6-2, 3.22 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) actually out-pitched Roy Halladay, as he went seven innings, allowing two runs on four hits and left the game with the lead. Then the Marlins bullpen did what teams in the midst of losing 19 of 20 games do: they blew the game. Sanchez was not as sharp in his last start against Texas, when the Rangers roughed him up for seven runs on seven hits in 3.2 innings. It was the shortest outing of the year for Sanchez.
Kendrick (2-2, 4.80 ERA, 1.200 WHIP) was far from Cy Young-esque in his last outing, a Canada Day matinee airfare in Toronto last Friday , as he allowed six runs on eight hits over seven innings. He also allowed two home runs on the day. Kendrick did have a very strong outing against Florida June 15, when he allowed just one run on five hits over seven innings as the Phillies took game one of a doubleheader. Duplicating that performance will be a tall order as he goes up against the Marlins’ winningest pitcher this season.

MLB Series Outlook: N.Y. Yankees at Cleveland

NEW YORK YANKEES (50-32 +7.5 Units)

at CLEVELAND INDIANS (44-38, +11.3 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: New York -155, Cleveland +125

Two first-place teams in the American League start a three-game series on our Nation’s Birthday when the Yankees visit Progressive Field to take on the Indians. Both teams lost on Sunday to prevent them from sweeping their weekend opponents, as the Indians fell to the Reds, and the Yankees blew a ninth-inning lead and lost on a Jason Bay walk-off single to the Mets to snap their seven-game win streak.

The Yankees have dominated this series of late, taking three of four from the Tribe in New York in June and winning 13 of their past 17 meetings at Progressive Field. The Bombers are one of the hottest teams in the game right now and always enjoy beating up on the Indians, especially in Cleveland where they haven’t lost a series since August of 2005. Expect NEW YORK to win the series, throwing its two top pitchers in CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.

The FoxSheets provide a pair of team trends siding with the Yankees.

NY YANKEES are 23-9 (71.9%, +12.2 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. The average score was NY YANKEES 6.2, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 1*).

JOE GIRARDI is 82-51 (61.7%, +23.1 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game on the season as the manager of NY YANKEES. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.0, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*).

Derek Jeter is due to return on Monday as he tries to complete his quest for 3,000 hits, needing just six more to reach the mark. Eduardo Nunez did an excellent job filling in for Jeter, especially this past weekend against the Mets, going 7-for-8 in the first two games before missing Sunday’s loss with a tight hamstring. Jeter loves hitting at Progressive Field, recording a .370 career BA there, while hitting safely in 23 of his past 27 visits to Cleveland.

Pitching Probables for Monday, July 4 – 6:35 ET
Monday line: New York -125, Cleveland +115, Total: 8.5
NYY: 8-9 (-4.55 Units) when A.J. Burnett starts
CLE: 10-6 (+4.00 Units) when Josh Tomlin starts
Burnett (8-6, 4.05 ERA) - Burnett has recovered nicely from his awful 2010 season in which he allowed batters to hit .285 and posted a career-high 5.26 ERA, holding batters to a .226 BA and has allowed three ER or fewer in 12 of his 17 starts this season. Burnett defeated the Brewers his last time out, allowing seven hits and two runs over seven innings. Despite all of Burnett’s problems in 2010, one team he didn’t struggle against was Cleveland, going 2-0 with a 0.63 ERA in his two starts against. Burnett pitched well again in his only appearance this season against the Tribe, but lost 1-0 to Carlos Carrasco after allowing just one run and five hits in 7.2 innings and tying a season-high with eight strikeouts. He has, however, struggled at Progressive Field in his career, going 1-4 with a 7.12 ERA in his five starts, but did win his last outing there in 2010, allowing no runs and seven hits in 6.1 innings.
Tomlin (9-4, 3.86 ERA) – Tomlin received a no-decision in his last start, going seven innings and allowing just two runs and five hits at Arizona in a game the Indians lost, after winning his previous two starts against the Pirates and Rockies. Tomlin has been impressive at home this season, as he's 6-1 with a 3.35 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in eight starts. After defeating the Yankees in his only start against them in 2010, allowing just three hits and one run over seven innings, Tomlin was roughed up in his only appearance against them this season, allowing 12 hits and six runs in five innings on June 12.

Pitching Probables for Tuesday, July 5 - 7:05 ET
Tuesday line: TBD
NYY: 13-5 (+5.20 Units) when CC Sabathia starts
CLE: 9-6 (+4.52 Units) when Carlos Carrasco starts
Sabathia (10-4, 3.25 ERA) - The Yankees ace is 8-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his past nine starts. Sabathia was dominant in winning his past two starts, allowing one run and 13 hits over 15.2 IP, while striking out 22 (including a season-high 13 in his last start). This is Sabathia’s fifth start against his former team. He is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in his four previous starts.
Carrasco (8-4, 3.54 ERA) – Carrasco has been excellent in his past nine starts, going 7-2 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He has been even better in his past five starts, holding opponents to just four earned runs in 36.2 IP, going 4-1 while posting a 0.74 WHIP. Carrasco has only faced the Yankees once, and is the only Indians pitcher to defeat the Yankees this season, throwing seven shutout innings in a 1-0 win on June 13.

Pitching Probables for Wednesday, July 6 - 7:05 ET
Wednesday line: TBD
NYY: 1-2 (-1.60 Units) when Phil Hughes starts
CLE: 9-8 (+0.50 Units) when Justin Masterson starts
Hughes (0-1, 13.94 ERA) – Hughes makes his return to the Yankees after making only three starts earlier this season. Hughes looks to have recovered from his lack of velocity and “tired shoulder” that plagued him in allowing 19 hits and 16 ER in just 10.1 IP this season. Reports had him hitting 94 mph on the radar gun while striking out eight in his last rehab appearance at Double-A Trenton on Wednesday.
Masterson (6-6, 2.85 ERA) – After starting the season with five straight wins, Masterson finally earned his sixth win of the season in his last outing, ending a skid of 11 straight starts without a victory. Masterson defeated the Reds his last time out on Friday, allowing just four hits and one run in eight innings.

MLB Series Outlook: N.Y. Mets at L.A. Dodgers

NEW YORK METS (42-42, +4.1 Units)

at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (37-48, -13.9 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: Los Angeles -150, New York +120

Two teams who are more known for their off-the-field financial troubles then they are for their on-field play this season, face off against each other in a four-game series starting Monday at Dodger Stadium. The Mets were cooled off a bit by the Yankees over the weekend, needing a ninth-inning rally to avoid a three-game sweep. That was just the second series loss the Mets had suffered since the end of May. New York is 19-14 in their past 33 games, including going 10-6 on the road over that span. The Dodgers have gone the other way, winning just one series since June 6, going 9-16 over that span. The Dodgers have had the Mets number of late at Chavez Ravine, going 6-1 in their past seven home meetings with New York.

The Mets took two of three against the Dodgers at Citifield in early May, but that was a healthy Mets team that had Jose Reyes, David Wright and Ike Davis. The Mets are simply a pathetic offensive team without Reyes (hamstring), and should be the answer to the Dodgers struggles. Look for LOS ANGELES to win the series and possibly sweep, as Clayton Kershaw and Hiroki Kuroda are 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in their two combined starts against the Mets at Dodger Stadium, and Ted Lilly is 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in his past three starts against New York.

The FoxSheets give another trend siding with the Dodgers to take at least three of four.

NY METS are 42-62 (40.4%, -32.6 Units) against the money line with an on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last 10 games since 1997. The average score was NY METS 3.8, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 1*).

While the Mets have played much better baseball of late, being without Jose Reyes, who injured his hamstring again over the weekend against the Yankees, will cripple the Mets offensive attack. After exploding on their recent road trip by scoring 52 runs over a four-game span, they have scored just eight runs in their past four games. Reyes is officially listed as “day-to-day” and will not go on the disabled list after an MRI revealed just a grade-one strain (the most mild), but the Mets are giving every indication that they intend to keep Reyes out until after the All-Star break.

Pitching Probables for Monday, July 4- 9:10 ET
Monday line: Los Angeles -110, New York +100, Total: 7.5
NYM: 7-8 (-0.80 Units) when Chris Capuano starts
LAD: 2-3 (+0.22 Units) when Rubby De La Rosa starts
Capuano (7-7, 4.27 ERA) – Since struggling earlier in the season, Capuano has been excellent in his past five starts, going 4-1 with a 2.40 ERA while striking out 28 and walking just seven. This will be his first start against the Dodgers since 2007 when he was with Milwaukee. Capuano is 2-3 with a 3.38 ERA in his 10 career appearances against the Dodgers.
De La Rosa (3-3, 4.41 ERA) – After allowing just four runs and seven hits over 10 innings in winning his first two starts, De La Rosa was hit hard in his next two starts, allowing 10 runs and 15 hits over 10.2 innings pitched while losing both of them. He regained his effectiveness in his last start, holding the Twins to just one run and six hits in seven innings, but still suffered his third straight defeat.


Pitching Probables for Tuesday, July 5 – 10:10 ET
Tuesday line: TBD
NYM: 5-12 (-6.40 Units) when Mike Pelfrey starts
LAD: 7-10 (-3.00 Units) when Ted Lilly starts
Pelfrey (4-7, 4.92 ERA) – Pelfrey has been a disaster for the Mets this season, especially on the road where he is 1-7 with a 6.75 ERA in his 10 starts. Pelfrey’s 6.75 ERA on the road is the highest this season among pitchers with at least nine road starts. He is winless in three career starts against the Dodgers, going 0-1 with a 4.80 ERA.
Ted Lilly (5-8, 4.97 ERA) – Lilly was excellent over a four-start stretch from May 25-June 11, allowing just six runs and 19 hits in 24 innings (he was 2-1 over that span). Since then, however, he has been slapped around in losing his past three starts, allowing 18 runs (17 earned) and 23 hits in 14.2 innings.

Pitching Probables for Wednesday, July 6 – 10:10 ET
Wednesday line: TBD
NYM: 9-8 (+2.40 Units) when Jonathon Niese starts
LAD: 7-10 (-4.35 Units) when Hiroki Kuroda starts
Niese (7-7, 3.72 ERA) – After leaving after 5.2 innings in his previous start due to a heartbeat irregularity (he got the win, allowing just two runs on six hits at Texas), Niese was ineffective against the Yankees at Citifield on Friday, suffering the loss after allowing nine hits and three runs in six innings. Niese has done well recently on the road this season, going 4-1 with a 3.48 ERA in his past five starts outside of Flushing. This will be Niese’s second career start against the Dodgers, and his first start at Dodger Stadium.
Kuroda (6-9, 2.90 ERA) – Kuroda has pitched very well recently, allowing 2 ER or fewer in six of his previous eight starts, but only has one win over that span as the Dodgers simply do not score when he is on the mound. Los Angeles exploded for five runs in snapping Kuroda’s five-game losing streak on Friday, but had totaled only 11 combined runs in his previous seven starts. The Dodgers have scored three runs or fewer in 11 of Kuroda’s 17 starts this season. Kuroda has a 1.01 WHIP and a 1.72 ERA in his past six starts, despite going 1-4 over that span.

Pitching Probables for Thursday, July 7 – 10:10 ET
Thursday line: TBD
NYM: 11-2 (+10.15 Units) when Dillon Gee starts
LAD: 10-8 (+0.25 Units) when Clayton Kershaw starts
Gee (8-2, 3.47 ERA) – After holding opponents to 2 ER or fewer in seven of his first 10 starts this season (and the Mets winning all 10 starts), Gee has allowed at least 3 ER in each of his past three starts, posting a 5.82 ERA over that span as the Mets have lost two of those three outings. This will be Gee’s second career start against the Dodgers, as he allowed 2 ER and seven hits in receiving a no-decision against them on May 7 at Citifield.
Kershaw (8-4, 3.23 ERA) – Kershaw was roughed up in his last start, allowing seven runs (six earned) and nine hits in six innings in losing to the Angels. That marked the third time in his past six starts that Kuroda has allowed 6 ER in a start. In his first 12 starts, Kershaw posted a 2.62 ERA, allowing 2 ER or fewer in seven of those outings. Kershaw loves seeing the Mets, as he is 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA in his four career starts against them.

Lester tries to cool off sizzling Toronto bats

TORONTO BLUE JAYS (42-44, -0.5 Units)

at BOSTON RED SOX (49-35, -1.7 Units)


First pitch: Tuesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -230, Toronto +210, Total: 9.5

The Toronto Blue Jays have been exposed to an awful lot of national pride over the past few days. Friday they played at home in the Rogers Centre against the Phillies on Canada Day. The next day, one of Canada’s biggest sports heroes of the past decade, Roy Halladay, took the mound in front of more than 44,000 fans, one of the largest crowds of the year. On Monday, July 4 in Boston, the Blue Jays jumped to a 7-0 lead and held on for a 9-7 victory. But like all holiday celebrations, the jubilation comes to an end and we all have to come back down to earth. Tuesday the Jays get a heavy dose of that reality when they take on one of the toughest lefthanders in baseball, in Jon Lester who is 9-4 with a 3.40 ERA against Toronto in his career.

The pick here is for hugely-favored BOSTON to come out on top in this pitching mismatch of dueling southpaws Lester and Brett Cecil, who has a 7.24 ERA this year.

The FoxSheets show another trend backing the Red Sox:

BOSTON is 41-11 (78.8%, +26.7 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 6.5, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*).

Lester (10-4, 3.43 ERA) will be facing the Jays for the fourth time this season, and already boasts two victories over them. In his last outing against Toronto on June 12, Lester went eight innings, and allowed just one run on two hits and struck out eight en route to a 14-1 Boston victory. In the past three seasons against the Jays (11 starts), Lester is 8-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 67 strikeouts in 68.2 innings.

Lester is looking to win two starts in a row after losing two straight low-scoring affairs during interleague play at home against Milwaukee (lost 4-2), and on the road versus the upstart Pirates (3-1 defeat). In his last start Thursday against the Phillies, Lester pitched seven strong innings of shutout baseball, allowing just two hits as Boston secured a 5-2 victory. After a 1-6 stretch from June 21-29, the Red Sox have won four of their past five games, scoring 31 runs on 51 hits (.291 BA) during this stretch.

After losing two games over the weekend to the Phillies, the Toronto bats have awoken with a fury over the past 48 hours, pounding Cliff Lee for seven runs Sunday (three home runs in the eighth inning) en route to a 7-4 win. Lee was coming off of three straight complete game shutouts before losing to the Jays. On Monday, Toronto got to Sox starter John Lackey for seven runs and nine hits in only 2.1 innings. Toronto enters Tuesday night having scored 16 runs on 24 hits over its past two games and will send Brett Cecil to the mound hoping that he will benefit from their hot bats.

Given Cecil’s numbers so far this year (1-3, 7.24 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) that might be a tall order. On the other hand, Cecil’s only victory in 2011 did come against the Red Sox back in April, when he pitched six innings and allowed three runs on two hits (both home runs) on his way to a victory in Fenway Park. Cecil is 3-3 for his career against Boston, but with a lofty ERA of 6.15 and a WHIP of 1.63. On paper, this does not look like it will be a low-scoring affair. If that’s the case, at least Toronto will have Jose Bautista on its side. Bautista (.329 BA, 27 HR, 56 RBI) homered off Lester the last time he faced him back on June 12, and had three home runs in three games over the weekend versus Philadelphia. His 27 round trippers lead the majors, while his batting average is third in MLB behind Jose Reyes and Adrian Gonzalez.

Pujols could return Tuesday vs. Reds

CINCINNATI REDS (43-43, -6.7 Units)

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (46-40, -0.3 Units)


First pitch: Tuesday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -140, Cincinnati +130, Total: 8

St. Louis pitcher Jaime Garcia (7-3, 3.33 ERA) will look to continue his dominating performance at home when the Cardinals host Cincinnati on Tuesday night at Busch Stadium. Garcia is 4-1 in seven home starts with a miniscule 0.88 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. St. Louis took the opener of the series, 1-0, on Monday night to snap a two-game losing streak. The Reds are 4-3 against the Cardinals this season, including a 1-3 mark at Busch, but St. Louis is just 2-5 in its past seven games at home.

However, Garcia is a perfect 4-0 in four career starts versus Cincy, making ST. LOUIS the pick on Tuesday night. The FoxSheets show two more trends supporting the Cardinals.

ST. LOUIS is 19-7 (73.1%, +12.7 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. The average score was ST. LOUIS 4.9, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CINCINNATI) - after a game without an extra-base hit, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games. (44-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.6%, +23.8 units. Rating = 2*).

In 51.1 innings at Busch, Garcia has allowed 31 hits and five earned runs with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.6 (43 K to 12 BB). He picked up the victory in his most recent start, despite struggling in a 9-6 win at Baltimore on Thursday, in which he gave up five earned runs and 10 hits in 5.1 innings. Prior to that game, the left-hander had been on a roll, allowing 3 ER or less in his previous five outings (2.59 ERA). He's surrendered more than 3 ER in a game only twice in 17 starts this season, and brings a perfect 4-0 career record with a 3.70 ERA and .225 opponents’ BA in four starts (all last year) against the Reds.

The Cardinals could get Albert Pujols (.279 BA, 17 HR, 45 RBI) back for Tuesday’s game. Pujols who's been sidelined with a broken wrist since June 19, was expected to be out until mid-August. The team doctor will evaluate him on Tuesday before a final decision is made about Pujols’ playing status.

Edinson Volquez (5-3, 5.65 ERA) will be aiming for his second straight victory for the Reds. Volquez won 4-3 at Tampa Bay on June 29, allowing three earned runs and four hits in 6.1 innings. In his previous two outings, he gave up eight earned runs in 9.1 innings. The right-hander has faced the Cardinals once this season, taking the 3-0 loss at St. Louis on April 24. During that start, he surrendered three earned runs and six hits in 5.2 innings with seven strikeouts. Volquez is 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA in five career starts versus the Cardinals, and is 3-2 with a 5.85 ERA in eight road starts in 2011.

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

July 5, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Brewers are 13-0 since April 22, 2010 as a 140+ favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $1300.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Angels are 0-9-2 OU since August 15, 2010 when Dan Haren starts at home after a quality start for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.


STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Mets are 0-10 since July 01, 2007 when Michael Pelfrey starts as a road dog after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.


MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Rays are 0-17 (-4.4 rpg) since 2006 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem and they are off a multiple-run loss in which they left ten or fewer men on base.


TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Yankees are 9-0 since May 21, 2010 as a road 140+ favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $900.

The Cardinals are 0-7-1 OU since April 15, 2010 at home after a win in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing the under.

The Padres are 0-7-1 OU since April 07, 2010 as a road dog after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing the under.

Projected Win Totals

July 5, 2011


There have been a number of surprises through the first three months of the baseball season. The one club that is on its way to cruising past its projected win total is the Pirates, who are playing nearly .520 baseball. Pittsburgh was listed at 67 ½ wins, but Clint Hurdle's squad is on its way to 84 victories and the first season over .500 for the franchise since 1992. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have bounced back from a slow start to climb within several games of the Giants for first place in the NL West. Arizona is playing at a .630 clip since the middle of May to be on the way to 87 victories, eclipsing the 72 ½ total posted in Vegas.

In the American League, two of the biggest surprises are the Indians and Mariners. Cleveland has slowed down considerably following a 30-15 start, but that hot beginning put the Tribe on pace to win 88 games in spite of playing .500 baseball the last six weeks. Seattle is being carried by great starting pitching, which puts the Mariners on a track to win 80 games, easily crushing the 69 ½ total set in Spring Training.

Some of the disappointments at the halfway mark include the Cubs, Dodgers, Rockies, and Twins. As a public team, the Cubs were expected to rebound this season after a pair of seasons missing out on the playoffs. Chicago is playing nearly .400 baseball as the All-Star break approaches, as the projected win total when it's all said and done is 66 victories, falling way short of Vegas' 81-win number posted in March. The Dodgers and Rockies have proven to be disappointments in the NL West as Los Angeles is staring at 70 wins, while Colorado has cooled off following a red-hot start as the Rockies are looking at a below .500 finish.

Several of the teams that right in playoff contention will come down to the final week to see whether or not they are going to fly over their respective win totals. These clubs include the Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Rangers, and Giants. All 30 teams are listed in the table below with their win total to start the season and what they are projected to finish at.

National League Win Totals
Team Win Total On Pace Projected Result
Arizona 72 ½ 87
Atlanta 88 94
Chicago Cubs 81 ½ 66
Cincinnati 85 ½ 81
Colorado 86 ½ 78
Florida 82 72
Houston 71 ½ 55
L.A. Dodgers 84 70
Milwaukee 85 ½ 85
N.Y. Mets 76 ½ 82
Philadelphia 96 ½ 102
Pittsburgh 67 ½ 84
San Diego 75 ½ 73
San Francisco 88 90
St. Louis 84 ½ 87
Washington 72 81
Projected Result Key: Over Under Even



American League Win Totals
Team Win Total On Pace Projected
Baltimore 76 ½ 71
Boston 95 ½ 94
Chicago White Sox 85 ½ 81
Cleveland 71 ½ 88
Detroit 84 85
Kansas City 68 ½ 65
LA Angels 83 85
Minnesota 85 ½ 72
NY Yankees 91 ½ 97
Oakland 83 ½ 72
Seattle 69 ½ 80
Tampa Bay 84 ½ 90
Texas 86 ½ 85
Toronto 76 ½ 79
Projected Result Key: Over Under Even

Thanks CNOTE. I do often read your stuff.