Yesterday 1 1 1 +0.98 Units
Last 30 Days 38 45 1 +0.16 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 116 142 2 -18.02 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
MILWAUKEE –1 –108 over Arizona
2:10 PM EST. The books have made the Crew a pretty significant favorite here of –152 and that’s because they’re aware that Josh Collmenter is not that good while Yovani Gallardo is. Collmenter has some sexy surface stats (3.17 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), but those marks have been helped by a friendly 22% hit rate and 83% strand rate. This luck, combined with pinpoint control, has fueled his success. This is no budding star and this is a guy whose numbers are in for a significant regression the rest of the way. Meanwhile, Gallardo is fine. His 4.00 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in June were inflated due to a high 37% hit rate. His base skills remained electric with a great strikeout rate, good control, a 51% GB% bias and a 119 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups). No reason for concern whatsoever and he’ll face a Snakes team that hits lefties much better than righties. Milwaukee has consistently had the most powerful home offense in the Senior Circuit this year and their .830 home OPS is still the highest mark in the NL by 40 points. They should expose Collmenter. Play: Milwaukee –1 –108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Houston +110 over PITTSBURGH (1st 5 innings)
Sometimes baseball is not a fair game. Case in point is Bud Norris, who has four wins in 17 starts but has pitched well enough to win at least 10 games and probably 12. Against the Bucco’s this year, Norris is 0-2 with an ERA of 2.57. Norris has a 90+ BPV in the first, second, and third times he goes through lineups. This consistency bodes well for one of the game's premium young pitchers and his 3.37 xERA confirms that his current 3.51 ERA is no fluke. He just keeps striking guys out at a high rate, gives up very little but does not get rewarded. We’re not going to put this one in the hands of the Astros bullpen because that pen is so erratic and unreliable. The Pirates are going to be hard pressed to score off Norris and hopefully the Astros can get to Charlie Morton, who, by the way, is nothing at all like Roy Halladay. Morton has issued 37 walks and struck out 51 in 92 innings. He pitches to contact and has a huge groundball tilt of 61% but he’s always had a strong GB tilt. Fact is, Morton has very average stuff and over the last month covering four starts over 17 innings, his ERA was 8.64 after striking out nine and walking six. Yeah, the Astros are putrid and the Pirates are an amazing four games above .500 but we’re not going with the worst of it here in the games’ first half. Play Houston +110 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
Seattle +112 over OAKLAND
3:35 PM EST. Jason Vargas has posted six straight quality starts, including a complete game shutout in his last start. He has allowed only 12 earned runs in those six starts, spanning 47 IP. Yet there are signs that Vargas' skills do not fully support his stats. While he is again outperforming his xERA, Vargas' skills are markedly improved. His strikeout rate has moved beyond the marginal range of his previous two seasons, while he has maintained his solid control, pushing his command to a career best. His ERA/xERA gap is roughly half the size of his 2010 gap. His xERA is also nearly three-quarters of a run lower than in 2010. Despite Vargas' real skills growth, he remains a candidate for a second-half regression. His ERA seems likely to climb toward his xERA, but his heightened SO rate and command provide more margin for error. Vargas seems a safer investment now than he did entering the season, but the second half could tell us whether he is an improving pitcher, or merely a half-season wonder. Regardless, he’s a good bet taking back a tag against the imposter he’s opposing here. When pitching in the majors, Guillermo Moscoso has struggled with walks and this year, while working primarily as a starter (in 2009, he worked exclusively as a reliever), his strikeout rate has plummeted (take away the two relief appearances he's made this year, his SO rate dips even further). He has allowed fly balls at a rate higher than 50% over his major league career and this year it’s at 57%, a recipe for trouble by itself, but disastrous when combined with poor command, as evidenced by his -47 BPV and 6.31 xERA. Moscoso got his shot as an injury fill-in but his days in the A's rotation appear to be numbered. It's possible he could catch on in the bullpen, perhaps depending on whether the A's look at his good ERA or his terrible skills. Focus on the skills, and your decision about whether to lay juice with this stiff or bet against him should be considerably easier. Play: Seattle +112 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
Last 30 Days 38 45 1 +0.16 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 116 142 2 -18.02 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
MILWAUKEE –1 –108 over Arizona
2:10 PM EST. The books have made the Crew a pretty significant favorite here of –152 and that’s because they’re aware that Josh Collmenter is not that good while Yovani Gallardo is. Collmenter has some sexy surface stats (3.17 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), but those marks have been helped by a friendly 22% hit rate and 83% strand rate. This luck, combined with pinpoint control, has fueled his success. This is no budding star and this is a guy whose numbers are in for a significant regression the rest of the way. Meanwhile, Gallardo is fine. His 4.00 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in June were inflated due to a high 37% hit rate. His base skills remained electric with a great strikeout rate, good control, a 51% GB% bias and a 119 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups). No reason for concern whatsoever and he’ll face a Snakes team that hits lefties much better than righties. Milwaukee has consistently had the most powerful home offense in the Senior Circuit this year and their .830 home OPS is still the highest mark in the NL by 40 points. They should expose Collmenter. Play: Milwaukee –1 –108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Houston +110 over PITTSBURGH (1st 5 innings)
Sometimes baseball is not a fair game. Case in point is Bud Norris, who has four wins in 17 starts but has pitched well enough to win at least 10 games and probably 12. Against the Bucco’s this year, Norris is 0-2 with an ERA of 2.57. Norris has a 90+ BPV in the first, second, and third times he goes through lineups. This consistency bodes well for one of the game's premium young pitchers and his 3.37 xERA confirms that his current 3.51 ERA is no fluke. He just keeps striking guys out at a high rate, gives up very little but does not get rewarded. We’re not going to put this one in the hands of the Astros bullpen because that pen is so erratic and unreliable. The Pirates are going to be hard pressed to score off Norris and hopefully the Astros can get to Charlie Morton, who, by the way, is nothing at all like Roy Halladay. Morton has issued 37 walks and struck out 51 in 92 innings. He pitches to contact and has a huge groundball tilt of 61% but he’s always had a strong GB tilt. Fact is, Morton has very average stuff and over the last month covering four starts over 17 innings, his ERA was 8.64 after striking out nine and walking six. Yeah, the Astros are putrid and the Pirates are an amazing four games above .500 but we’re not going with the worst of it here in the games’ first half. Play Houston +110 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
Seattle +112 over OAKLAND
3:35 PM EST. Jason Vargas has posted six straight quality starts, including a complete game shutout in his last start. He has allowed only 12 earned runs in those six starts, spanning 47 IP. Yet there are signs that Vargas' skills do not fully support his stats. While he is again outperforming his xERA, Vargas' skills are markedly improved. His strikeout rate has moved beyond the marginal range of his previous two seasons, while he has maintained his solid control, pushing his command to a career best. His ERA/xERA gap is roughly half the size of his 2010 gap. His xERA is also nearly three-quarters of a run lower than in 2010. Despite Vargas' real skills growth, he remains a candidate for a second-half regression. His ERA seems likely to climb toward his xERA, but his heightened SO rate and command provide more margin for error. Vargas seems a safer investment now than he did entering the season, but the second half could tell us whether he is an improving pitcher, or merely a half-season wonder. Regardless, he’s a good bet taking back a tag against the imposter he’s opposing here. When pitching in the majors, Guillermo Moscoso has struggled with walks and this year, while working primarily as a starter (in 2009, he worked exclusively as a reliever), his strikeout rate has plummeted (take away the two relief appearances he's made this year, his SO rate dips even further). He has allowed fly balls at a rate higher than 50% over his major league career and this year it’s at 57%, a recipe for trouble by itself, but disastrous when combined with poor command, as evidenced by his -47 BPV and 6.31 xERA. Moscoso got his shot as an injury fill-in but his days in the A's rotation appear to be numbered. It's possible he could catch on in the bullpen, perhaps depending on whether the A's look at his good ERA or his terrible skills. Focus on the skills, and your decision about whether to lay juice with this stiff or bet against him should be considerably easier. Play: Seattle +112 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
