Cnotes Thursday's MLB Best Bets !

CNOTES · Jul 7, 2011

St. Louis Cardinals Begin Series With Diamondbacks

One of Thursday's premier MLB betting affairs takes place at Busch Stadium. The St. Louis Cardinals will play host to the Arizona Diamondbacks at the outset of the final series before the all-star break.

The first pitch of this clash is slated for 5:15 p.m. (PT). MLB bettors can view this one Fox Sports Arizona and Fox Sports Midwest.

Both of these teams have a lot to look forward to in the second half of the season, as both are clearly going to be buyers at the trade deadline. St. Louis and Arizona are both right there in the thick of the race going into the All-Star Game.

We know that there have to be a ton of players for the D-Backs that are having significantly better years this year than they had in 2010. The epitome of that is the man that is scheduled to be on the bump on Thursday, Joe Saunders.

The southpaw was just 3-7 last year after being traded to Arizona at the trade deadline, and he was only 9-17 in total on the campaign. This year though, Saunders is off to a lot better start at 5-7, and he has won all five of those games since May 24. The former Virginia Tech Hokies standout has a 4.04 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP, while batters are hitting .277 against him.

Meanwhile, Saunders could have himself a big time problem to deal with in the form of Albert Pujols. The first baseman for the Cards is just getting back in the lineup after a two week absence with a wrist injury, and he figures to help out a lineup that has really picked up the slack without him.

St. Louis actually has better offensive numbers this year than most teams in the game. The Redbirds rank No. 4 in the league at 4.68 runs per game, and are batting .269 as a team. What's scariest about that is that Pujols is only batting .279 and has accounted for just 17 home runs on the campaign.

Pujols won the Triple Crown for the decade of the 2000s, and he is seemingly always good for a .300+ batting average and at least 40 homers. In fact, if he doesn't hit at least 37 homers this year, it will only be the third time in Pujols' career in which he didn't reach that home run total.

This is all great news for the man starting on the bump on Thursday for manager Tony LaRussa, Kyle McClellan. The righty probably only earned his spot in the rotation this year after Adam Wainwright suffered a season ending shoulder injury in Spring Training., but he has definitely made the most of it, going 6-5 with a 4.27 ERA.

The bad news for McClellan is that he hasn't won a start since May 19, and he has led the Redbirds to five straight defeats. Sure, his ERA in those five starts is a woeful 7.00, but the offense is definitely to blame as well. This unit has only averaged 1.20 runs per game in that stretch as well.

Mother Nature should be providing us with great conditions for an MLB betting battle on Thursday. Forecasters are expecting temperatures in the high-70s by game time with a slender 30 percent chance of rain.

CNOTES · Jul 7, 2011

Reds Open Crucial Series At Milwaukee Brewers

The National League Central race is one of the tightest in baseball as the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers begin an important four-game series Thursday night at Miller Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 5:10 (PT).

Cincinnati enters with a 7-2 record in the season series against Milwaukee, including wins in two of three meetings from April 25-27 at Miller Park. In fact, the Reds are a dominating 18-5 the last two seasons against the Brewers.

The club has enjoyed great success against the entire division recently, posting a 24-16 mark heading into its series finale against St. Louis Wednesday, while also tallying a 119-80 record the last three years.

Reds starting pitcher Homer Bailey (3-3, 3.64 ERA) is still looking to regain his early season form, losing both of his starts since his return from the disabled list with a right shoulder impingement. In those outings, he has allowed eight runs (seven earned) and 17 hits over 12 innings.

Bailey will also be searching for his first career victory against the Brewers, coming in with an 0-2 record and 5.36 ERA. The right-hander has yet to record a decision at Miller Park, compiling a respectable 3.09 ERA in 11 2/3 innings.

The former first-round selection will likely be cautious facing Milwaukee All-Star first baseman Prince Fielder, who is 5-for-14 with a home run and three RBIs. He has had better success against another player that will represent the NL in the Midsummer Classic, limiting outfielder Ryan Braun to five hits in 20 at bats (.250).

Bettors will be interested in knowing that the Reds are 13-3 versus divisional foes when Bailey is on the hill.

Milwaukee hadn’t lost consecutive home games until dropping Tuesday's 7-3 contest, but still possessed the NL’s best home record (29-13) entering its third game of a seven-game homestand.

Braun and Fielder represent a dynamic offensive duo, leading the majors with 133 combined RBIs. Make sure to check the injury report before the series opener, as Braun has missed four straight games with a left calf injury.

Brewers left-hander Chris Narveson (5-5, 4.86 ERA) is scheduled to make his 18th start of the season and the club has won back-to-back games with him on the hill. He comes off a rough outing after allowing seven runs and a season-high 14 hits in 4 2/3 innings in a no-decision road effort against the Twins.

Narveson has been a respectable option at home, posting a 4-2 record and 3.91 ERA, surrendering just two home runs in 46 frames.

He will be aiming for his first lifetime win versus the Reds, going 0-3 with a 7.06 ERA in six career games (four starts), including 0-2 with a 17.05 ERA in two outings this year.

Reds left-handed batters Jay Bruce and Joey Votto have caused plenty of problems for the southpaw, combining to go 9-for-15 with three home runs and seven RBIs.

Weather forecasts suggest game-time highs in the low-70s and a slight northeasterly breeze of 5-10 mph. The Miller Park roof is likely to be open throughout the contest and the ‘over’ has cashed in two of three games given the expected wind conditions.

CNOTES · Jul 7, 2011

Around the Horn - Thursday

July 6, 2011

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Colorado at Atlanta - 1:10 PM EST (Game 4/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Nicasio (3-1, 4.10 ERA) 2-5 L7 1-7 L8 away during day
Hudson (7-6, 3.57 ERA) 7-1 L8 UNDER 9-3 L12 home during day

Braves beat Rockies, 4-1 on Monday
Braves beat Rockies, 5-3 on Tuesday
Braves beat Rockies, 9-1 on Wednesday

Chicago at Washington - 7:05 PM EST (Game 4/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Garza (4-7, 3.77 ERA) 1-4 L5 5-0 L5 on Thursdays
Hernandez (5-8, 3.73 ERA) 4-2 L6 3-0 L3 Game 4's

Nationals beat Cubs, 5-4 on Monday
Nationals beat Cubs, 3-2 on Tuesday
Nationals beat Cubs, 5-4 on Wednesday

Houston at Florida - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Happ (3-10, 5.63 ERA) 0-5 L5 OVER 5-0 L5 away Game 1's
Hand (0-3, 3.79 ERA) 5-5 L10 2-8 L10 home Game 1's

Astros beat Pirates, 8-2 on Wednesday
Marlins beat Phillies, 7-6 on Wednesday

Cincinnati at Milwaukee - 8:10 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Bailey (3-3, 3.64 ERA) 1-4 L5 7-2 L9 vs MIL
Narveson (5-5, 4.86 ERA) 1-7 L8 11-4 home vs division

Reds beat Cardinals, 9-8 on Wednesday
Brewers beat Diamondbacks, 3-1 on Wednesday

Arizona at St. Louis - 8:15 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Saunders (5-7, 4.04 ERA) 3-1 L4 OVER 6-1 L7 away Game 1's
McClellan (7-4, 4.92 ERA) 6-2 L8 9-3 on Thursdays

Diamondbacks lost to Brewers, 3-1 on Wednesday
Cardinals lost to Reds, 9-8 on Wednesday

N.Y. Mets at Los Angeles - 10:10 PM EST (Game 4/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Gee (8-2, 3.47 ERA) 7-3 L10 OVER 4-1 Game 4's
Kershaw (8-4, 3.23 ERA) 1-6 L7 1-4 L5 home vs RHP

Mets beat Dodgers, 5-2 on Monday
Mets beat Dodgers, 6-0 on Tuesday
Mets beat Dodgers, 5-3 on Wednesday

San Diego at San Francisco - 10:15 PM EST (Game 4/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Luebke (2-2, 2.52 ERA) 7-2 L9 1-6 L7 away vs LHP
Zito (2-1, 3.81 ERA) 2-5 L7 8-2 L10 home vs LHP

Padres beat Giants, 5-3 on Monday
Padres beat Giants, 5-3 on Tuesday
Giants beat Padres, 6-5 on Wednesday

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Niemann (3-4, 5.05 ERA) 3-5 L8 UNDER 8-1 L9 Game 1's
Colon (6-3, 2.88 ERA) 8-2 L10 2-7 L9 home vs division

Rays beat Twins, 12-5 on Wednesday
Yankees lost to Indians, 5-3 on Wednesday

Toronto at Cleveland - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Villanueva (5-1, 3.24 ERA) 3-6 L9 OVER 7-4 L11 Game 1's
McCallister (ML debut) 5-3 L8 0-4 L4 on Thursdays

Blue Jays lost to Red Sox, 6-4 on Wednesday
Indians beat Yankees, 5-3 on Wednesday

Baltimore at Boston - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Arrieta (9-5, 4.74 ERA) 1-7 L8 2-6 L8 Game 1's
Miller (2-0, 3.06 ERA) 5-1 L6 7-2 on Thursdays

Red Sox beat Blue Jays, 6-4 on Wednesday

Oakland at Texas - 8:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Harden (1-0, 3.00 ERA) 2-5 L7 3-11 away Game 1's
Holland (6-4, 5.10 ERA) 5-3 L8 1-6 on Thursdays

Athletics beat Mariners, 2-0 on Wednesday

Minnesota at Chicago - 8:10 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Pavano (5-6, 4.19 ERA) 6-2 L8 5-1 L6 away vs division
Humber (8-4, 2.69 ERA) 5-3 L8 OVER 6-1 L7 home Game 1's

Twins lost to Rays, 12-5 on Wednesday
White Sox lost to Royals, 4-1 on Wednesday

Detroit at Kansas City - 8:10 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Scherzer (9-4, 4.90 ERA) 2-7 L9 2-8 L10 away Game 1's
Duffy (1-3, 5.09 ERA) 3-6 L9 0-5 L5 Game 1's

Tigers beat Angels, 5-4 on Wednesday
Royals beat White Sox, 4-1 on Wednesday

Seattle at L.A. Angels - 10:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Fister (3-9, 3.02 ERA) 4-1 L5 UNDER 7-2 on Thursdays
Weaver (10-4, 1.92 ERA) 8-1 L9 UNDER 11-2 home Game 1's

Mariners lost to Athletics, 2-0 on Wednesday
Angels lost to Tigers, 5-4 on Wednesday

CNOTES · Jul 7, 2011

Diamond Trends - Thursday

July 7, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Tigers are 0-9 since May 03, 2010 on the road after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $920 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Marlins are 13-0-1 OU since April 11, 2010 at home after a one run win for a net profit of $1300 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Astros are 0-10 since August 10, 2010 when J.A. Happ starts after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $1045 when playing against.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Braves are 17-0 (+3.4 rpg) since April 24th, 2004 as a home favorite when they are off a game in which they had at least a dozen hits and their starter had a quality start, as long as it in not a series opener.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Brewers are 7-0 OU since June 22, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing the over.

The Mariners are 0-9 since July 02, 2010 when Doug Fister starts on the road in the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against.

The Tigers are 0-5 since April 23, 2010 when Max Scherzer starts on the road after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $525 when playing against.

CNOTES · Jul 7, 2011

Thursday’s betting tips: Rookie SP debuts for Tribe

Who’s hot

MLB: The over is 13-3 in Florida’s last 16 meetings with Houston.

MLB: The New York Mets are 17-7 in their last 24 games as an underdog.

Who’s not

MLB: Baltimore had won only one of its eight heading into Wednesday’s action.

MLB: Kansas City has won four of its last 14 home games.

Key stat

.178 – Atlanta Braves second baseman Dan Uggla went into Wednesday’s game with a .178 batting average after going 2-for-2 with a homer the night before. Uggla, who signed a $62 million contract with the Braves, hit .287 with 33 homers and 105 RBIs with Florida last season. The Braves are hitting only .237 (26th in the bigs).

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Placido Polanco, Philadelphia Phillies – Polanco will meet with a spinal cord specialist Thursday in Philadelphia after sitting out Tuesday and Wednesday with a pinched nerve in his back. The team hopes he’ll return to action by the weekend, but that will all depend on how Thursday’s meeting goes.

Game of the day

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (-180, 9.5)

Notable quotable

"We have to win this game. We're going to work 30 percent on defense and 70 percent on attack." – Costa Rica coach Ricardo La Volpe about Thursday’s matchup with Bolivia following the side’s opening loss to Columbia at Copa America. Costa Rico is set as a +260 underdog with the draw at +215 and Bolivia at -105.

Notes and tips

Zach McAllister will make his MLB debut Thursday against the Toronto Blue Jays after being called up from Triple-A Columbus. The 6-foot-6 righty gets his shot with Fausto Carmona hitting the DL and his numbers looked pretty good in the minors. He was 8-3 with a 2.97 ERA and had 71 strikeouts and 21 walks in 97 innings of work with Columbus.

Oddsmakers have the hometown German side listed as a -125 favorite to win the Women’s World Cup after the group stage finished up with Wednesday’s action. The U.S., which suffered a disappointing 2-1 loss to Sweden on Wednesday to drop them to second place in their group are listed at +450, as is Brazil. The U.S. and Brazil will square off in the quarterfinals.

CNOTES · Jul 7, 2011

Thursday's six-pack

According to philsteele.com, the six top QBs in college ball this year
6) Kirk Cousins, Michigan St-- MSU lost last five bowls (15-31 avg).

5) Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma St-- 27-year old played pro baseball.

4) Nick Foles, Arizona-- 3,191 PY, 20 TDs, 10 INTlast season.

3) Matt Barkley, USC-- Loses three of top four receivers from
LY.

2) Landry Jones, Oklahoma-- 4,718 PY, 38 TDs, 12 INT LY.

1) Andrew Luck, Stanford-- 32 TDs, 8 INT LY; 19-6 as a starter.

Late night update
Nate Schierholtz homered into McCovey Cove
at 2:07am, as the Giants beat San Diego 6-5 in 14 innings.

*****************

Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.........

13) Nebraska Cornhuskers, far as I know, sell out every home football game; their two coordinators make a combined $700,000 a year, pretty good money. LSU’s two coordinators make $700,000. Apiece.

12) Illinois usually sucks in football, but their OC, Paul Petrino, makes a cool $500,000 a year. Sounds pretty good, right? But there are seven assistant coaches in the SEC who make more than that.

11) Clemson DC Kevin Steele turned down a $750,000 offer to do the same job at Tennessee, opting to stay with the Tigers, where he makes a paltry $681,000. Moral of the story; let your kid grow up to be a football coach. There’s good money in it, if you work hard enough at it and climb high enough up the ladder.

10) Average ticket price to a Bronx Bomber baseball game this season so far: $92.37. Pathetic. You can sit in the bleachers on a Wednesday in Oakland for $2 and eat $1 hot dogs. Go figure.

9) So Detroit Tigers fired their pitching coach, blaming him for dreadful performances last week; does the guy get no credit for developing Justin Verlander, one of the game’s top pitchers?

8) Watching the Mets play, one question bugs me; how did Terry Collins go 11 years in between managing jobs? This guy is a good leader.

7) Stat of the Day: There are 183 legal sportsbooks in Nevada.

6) Last time the Pirates had a winning record was 1992, when Barry Bonds with 34 HR’s with 103 RBI; no other Pirate hit more than 14 HR’s. Doug Drabek went 15-11 for the Bucs; his son pitched in the big leagues this season.

5) Looking thru the ’92 Pirates stats, you see a 35-year old Kirk Gibson playing 16 games, hitting .196 in 56 AB’s; now he manages the Diamondbacks. Lot of water under the bridge since 1992. Hope Pirate fans are enjoying this summer.

4) Pirates won their 45th game on July 5th; last year, they won their 45th game on September 3rd.

3) The five teams in the AL Central have allowed 125 more runs than they've scored this season.

2) Braves have a five-game lead in NL Wild Card standings; Red Sox have a 3.5 game lead over Tampa Bay, 5.5 over the Angels in the AL race.

1) Our thoughts and prayers go out to the family of Armen Gilliam, who played 13 years in NBA; he had a heart attack playing ball Wednesday and passed away at age 47. Way too early to go; life is short, have to have fun while we can.

CNOTES · Jul 7, 2011

MLB
Dunkel

Oakland at Texas
The A's look to build on their 9-0 record in Rich Harden's last 9 starts with 5 days rest. Oakland is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the A's favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+115). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, JULY 7

Game 901-902: Colorado at Atlanta (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Nicasio) 14.089; Atlanta (Hudson) 16.080
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-175); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-175); Over

Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Garza) 15.606; Washington (Hernandez) 14.023
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+100); Under

Game 905-906: Houston at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Happ) 14.602; Florida (Hand) 15.691
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-140); Under

Game 907-908: Cincinnati at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.001; Milwaukee (Narveson) 14.108
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+100); Over

Game 909-910: Arizona at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Saunders) 15.281; St. Louis (McClellan) 14.256
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+125); Over

Game 911-912: NY Mets at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 15.750; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.179
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-145); Under

Game 913-914: San Diego at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Luebke) 15.631; San Francisco (Zito) 15.285
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); Over

Game 915-916: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.376; NY Yankees (Colon) 16.752
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-165); Under

Game 917-918: Toronto at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Villanueva) 15.172; Cleveland (McAllister) 16.449
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2 ; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-105); Under

Game 919-920: Baltimore at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Arrieta) 12.964; Boston (Miller) 15.748
Dunkel Line: Boston by 3; 11
Vegas Line: Boston (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-155); Over

Game 921-922: Detroit at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.428; Kansas City (Duffy) 15.303
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-130); Under

Game 923-924: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pavano) 14.965; White Sox (Humber) 14.498
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130); Over

Game 925-926: Seattle at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Fister) 15.206; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.807
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 6
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-170); Over

Game 927-928: Oakland at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Harden) 16.125; Texas (Holland) 15.064
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+115); Under

CNOTES · Jul 7, 2011

MLB
Write-Up

Thursday, July 7

Hot pitchers
-- Hudson is 2-0, 1.35 in his last three starts.
-- Garza is 1-1, 2.53 in his last three starts. LHernandez is 1-0, 1.98 in his last couple starts.
-- Saunders is 2-0, 2.14 in his last three starts.
-- Kershaw is 3-0, 0.79 in his last four home starts.
-- Zito is 2-0, 1.38 in two starts since coming off the DL. San Diego won both Luebke starts (1-0, 0.00. 11 IP).

-- Colon is 4-0, 1.00 in his last four starts. Tampa Bay won last three Niemann starts (2-0, 3.60), scoring 27 runs.
-- Toronto won four of Villanueva's five road starts.
-- Miller is 2-0, 3.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Humber is 5-1, 2.28 in his last seven starts.
-- Weaver is 3-0, 0.87 in his last four starts. Fister has a 1.08 RA in his last three starts, but no wins in his last six. Seattle scored two or less runs in 13 of his 17 starts.
-- Harden, who pitched for Texas LY, allowed two runs in six IP in his first '11 start, a 5-4 win over Arizona.

Cold pitchers
-- Nicasio is 0-1, 7.47 in his three road starts.
-- Happ is 0-6, 6.99 in his last nine starts. Hand is 0-3, 5.00 in four starts for Florida.
-- Bailey is 0-3, 5.43 in his last four starts. Narveson has a 6.55 RA in his last four starts.
-- Cardinals lost last five McClellan starts (0-4, 7.67).
-- Gee is 1-2, 5.82 in his last three starts.

-- McAllister is making first MLB start; he was 8-3, 2.97 in 15 starts at the AAA level.
-- Arrieta is 1-2, 5.94 in his last three starts.
-- Scherzer is 0-2, 9.60 in his last three starts. Duffy is 1-3, 5.58 in his last six starts.
-- Pavano is 0-1, 5.93 in his last couple starts.
-- Holland has an 8.54 RA in his last five starts.

Totals
-- Six of last nine Atlanta home games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 10-4-1 in Washington's last fifteen games.
-- Last five Happ starts went over the total.
-- Five of Brewers' last six games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven St Louis home games.
-- Four of Dodgers' last five home games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-2-1 in Giants' last seven home games.

-- Six of last eight Bronx games stayed under the total.
-- tor-clev
-- Over is 12-3-2 in last seventeen games at Fenway Park.
-- Five of last seven Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in White Sox' last eight home games.
-- Under is 11-4 in Seattle's last fifteen road games.
-- Nine of last twelve Texas games went over the total.

Hot Teams
-- Washington won four of its last five games.
-- Giants won nine of their last thirteen games. Padres won six of their last eight games.
-- Marlins won five of their last seven games.
-- Cardinals won six of their last nine games. Arizona won four of its last six games.
-- Braves won 12 of their last 15 games.
-- Mets won seven of their last eight road games.

-- Red Sox won five of their last six games.
-- Toronto won four of its last six road games. Indians are 5-3 in their last eight games.
-- Bronx won eight of its last ten games. Rays are 5-2 in their last seven games road games.
-- Twins won six of their last eight games.
-- Rangers are 5-3 in their last eight games.
-- Royals won three of their last four games.
-- Mariners won four of their last five games. Angels won ten of their last twelve games.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost ten of their last twelve road games.
-- Astros lost eight of their last twelve road games.
-- Brewers lost seven of their last nine games. Reds lost four of last six.
-- Rockies lost nine of last twelve games, including last six on road.
-- Dodgers lost 11 of their last 14 games.

-- Orioles lost 17 of their last 22 road games.
-- Oakland lost nine of its last fourteen games.
-- Detroit lost seven of its last ten road games.
-- White Sox lost three of their last four games.

CNOTES · Jul 7, 2011

MLB

Thursday, July 7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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1:05 PM
COLORADO vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games
Colorado is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Colorado

7:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NY YANKEES
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Tampa Bay's last 21 games when playing NY Yankees
Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of NY Yankees's last 21 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 8 games

7:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. TEXAS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Texas
Texas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games

7:05 PM
TORONTO vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Toronto's last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Toronto
Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

7:05 PM
CHI CUBS vs. WASHINGTON
Chi Cubs are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games
Chi Cubs are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games at home

7:10 PM
HOUSTON vs. FLORIDA
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Houston is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Florida
Florida is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida's last 7 games

7:10 PM
BALTIMORE vs. BOSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston's last 15 games at home

8:10 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at home
Chi White Sox are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing Minnesota

8:10 PM
CINCINNATI vs. MILWAUKEE
Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Milwaukee is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Milwaukee is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home

8:10 PM
DETROIT vs. KANSAS CITY
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Detroit is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Detroit

8:15 PM
ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Arizona is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games on the road
St. Louis is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
St. Louis is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Arizona

10:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. LA ANGELS
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
LA Angels are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing Seattle

10:10 PM
NY METS vs. LA DODGERS
NY Mets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
NY Mets are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets
LA Dodgers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Mets

10:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego15-7-1 SU in its last 23 games when playing San Francisco
San Diego11-2-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games ,
San Francisco is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games ,when playing San Diego

CNOTES · Jul 7, 2011

MLB

Thursday, July 7

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Thursday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
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Streaking

Philip Humber (8-4, 2.69 ERA), Chicago White Sox

Humber won’t be a part of the AL All-Star game and he probably has grounds to be a little put off about it.

He goes for his seventh win in eight tries on Thursday and has been incredibly consistent so far with 13 quality starts in 16 starting outings. Oh, he also owns a WHIP of 0.98.

The 6-foot-3 righty blanked the Cubs over seven innings in a 1-0 win the last time he climbed the hill.

Carlos Villanueva (5-1, 3.24 ERA), Toronto Blue Jays

Villanueva is 4-1 with a 4.13 ERA since taking over Jesse Litsch’s spot in the rotation and Jays bettors are loving it when he toes the rubber.

Toronto is 6-2 in his starts and he has four consecutive quality starts heading into Thursday’s matchup against the Cleveland Indians. Even though Toronto is 7-20 in its last 27 games in Cleveland, the Jays are set as -120 favorites.

Slumping

J.A. Happ, (3-10, 5.63 ERA), Houston Astros

Happ didn’t get off to a good start in his last outing, allowing the first five Red Sox he faced to reach base. He ended up giving up five runs over 6 2/3 innings in a 10-4 loss, marking the third consecutive start in which he has allowed five runs.

Right now, only Ubaldo Jimenez has lost more cash for baseball bettors. The Astros are 3-14 in his starts, putting his supporters down 10.38 units.

Derek Holland (6-4, 5.10 ERA), Texas Rangers

Consistency is Holland’s main issue – possibly apart from anger management.

"When I came out of the game, I was ready to break something," Holland told reporters following his latest loss, getting the hook after allowing five runs in two-thirds of an inning against Florida. "There's no doubt about it, I was very frustrated. At the same time, I've got to be ready for tomorrow.”

Over bettors have cashed in on seven of his last eight starts and he has allowed at least four runs in five of those outings.

CNOTES · Jul 7, 2011

MLB

Thursday, July 7

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Hot lines: Thursday's best MLB bets
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (-170, 9.5)

All eyes are on Yankees captain Derek Jeter as the club returns to the Bronx hoping to witness his 3000th hit. After picking up one hit Wednesday night, he's just three away from the big number.

For his part, Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Maddon has already went on the record saying that he expects Jeter to reach the milestone against his team.

"There’s still going to be this energy bubble," Maddon told reporters. "It’s strong enough (at Yankee Stadium) to begin with. Every night is like a playoff game there. It is. It’s awesome, and I think it’s great."

But will this sideshow distract the Yankees? Probably not, though you have to wonder what Yanks manager Joe Girardi was thinking when he hinted he might sit Jeter Wednesday in Cleveland.

There isn’t much value in betting the Yanks in Game 1 of the series, but these teams have played over the total in 15 of their last 21 meetings. Both teams will be jacked up for this on and with Tampa Bay coming off a huge comeback win, we’ll jump on that trend.

Pick: Over

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (-175, 5.5)

Tough call here.

Jered Weaver has absolutely owned the Mariners, with L.A. winning seven of his last eight tilts with the M’s and his last eight home starts against Seattle.

Meanwhile, the Mariners have played under in six straight games and moving the under to 37-16-3 in the team’s last 56 games, but these 5.5-run totals are no fun to deal with.

Still, it’s warranted in this spot. Both clubs are averaging well under four runs per game and with the underrated Doug Fister (three earned runs against in his last 25 innings) taking the hill, we’re banking on this one ducking under the low number.

The Mariners are averaging just 2.5 runs in Fister’s starts – hence his 3-9 record even though his ERA is 3.02.

Pick: Under

CNOTES · Jul 7, 2011

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, July 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO (41 - 46) at ATLANTA (52 - 36) - 1:05 PM
JUAN NICASIO (R) vs. TIM HUDSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 41-46 (-18.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 50-74 (-28.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 41-46 (-18.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
COLORADO is 26-35 (-19.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
COLORADO is 67-141 (-52.6 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
COLORADO is 11-29 (-17.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 84-46 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 84-46 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 103-69 (+15.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
HUDSON is 129-60 (+31.9 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997. (Team's Record)
HUDSON is 129-60 (+31.9 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against COLORADO this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

JUAN NICASIO vs. ATLANTA since 1997
No recent starts.

TIM HUDSON vs. COLORADO since 1997
HUDSON is 3-2 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 4.86 and a WHIP of 1.378.
His team's record is 3-3 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-1. (+2.9 units)

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CHICAGO CUBS (35 - 53) at WASHINGTON (45 - 43) - 7:05 PM
MATT GARZA (R) vs. LIVAN HERNANDEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 35-53 (-17.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 35-53 (-17.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 74-97 (-22.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
GARZA is 66-72 (-23.0 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
GARZA is 13-27 (-18.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GARZA is 15-29 (-19.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GARZA is 14-19 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GARZA is 5-17 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
GARZA is 4-15 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
WASHINGTON is 45-43 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 25-18 (+8.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
WASHINGTON is 27-15 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
WASHINGTON is 17-7 (+9.5 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
WASHINGTON is 45-43 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
WASHINGTON is 30-24 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
WASHINGTON is 25-20 (+7.1 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
WASHINGTON is 83-56 (+24.2 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997.
HERNANDEZ is 13-4 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHICAGO CUBS are 19-11 (+10.4 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

MATT GARZA vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
GARZA is 0-0 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 4.76 and a WHIP of 1.940.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

LIVAN HERNANDEZ vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
HERNANDEZ is 12-7 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 4.05 and a WHIP of 1.397.
His team's record is 13-10 (+3.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 13-9. (+3.4 units)

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HOUSTON (30 - 58) at FLORIDA (39 - 48) - 7:10 PM
J.A. HAPP (L) vs. BRAD HAND (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 30-58 (-22.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 28-57 (-24.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
HOUSTON is 21-39 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
HOUSTON is 8-21 (-11.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
HOUSTON is 9-30 (-20.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
HAPP is 3-14 (-10.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
HAPP is 3-14 (-10.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
HAPP is 1-10 (-8.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
FLORIDA is 45-30 (+15.8 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 40-32 (+16.8 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 17-26 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
FLORIDA is 17-26 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
FLORIDA is 14-21 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 2-1 (+0.9 Units) against HOUSTON this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

J.A. HAPP vs. FLORIDA since 1997
HAPP is 2-1 when starting against FLORIDA with an ERA of 2.38 and a WHIP of 1.147.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)

BRAD HAND vs. HOUSTON since 1997
No recent starts.

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CINCINNATI (44 - 44) at MILWAUKEE (46 - 42) - 8:10 PM
HOMER BAILEY (R) vs. CHRIS NARVESON (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 17-26 (-13.2 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
MILWAUKEE is 30-13 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 30-13 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
MILWAUKEE is 24-9 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
CINCINNATI is 174-165 (+32.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 550-630 (+54.0 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 74-46 (+21.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 487-574 (+38.0 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 364-408 (+41.2 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997.
MILWAUKEE is 32-48 (-19.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 7-2 (+5.5 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

HOMER BAILEY vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
BAILEY is 0-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 5.36 and a WHIP of 1.488.
His team's record is 4-3 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-2. (+2.7 units)

CHRIS NARVESON vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
NARVESON is 0-3 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 8.15 and a WHIP of 1.529.
His team's record is 0-4 (-4.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-3. (-2.6 units)

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ARIZONA (47 - 41) at ST LOUIS (47 - 41) - 8:15 PM
JOE SAUNDERS (L) vs. KYLE MCCLELLAN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 35-15 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 25-13 (+12.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 47-42 (+7.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 47-42 (+7.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ARIZONA is 35-28 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ARIZONA is 23-17 (+7.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAUNDERS is 48-27 (+18.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 133-117 (-21.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 130-114 (-21.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 38-40 (-16.8 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-1 (+0.6 Units) against ARIZONA this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

JOE SAUNDERS vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
No recent starts.

KYLE MCCLELLAN vs. ARIZONA since 1997
MCCLELLAN is 1-0 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 1.833.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-0. (+0.0 units)

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NY METS (45 - 42) at LA DODGERS (37 - 51) - 10:10 PM
DILLON GEE (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NY METS are 45-42 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY METS are 26-20 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
NY METS are 45-42 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
NY METS are 19-13 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
NY METS are 25-19 (+8.6 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
GEE is 11-2 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
GEE is 6-0 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
GEE is 11-2 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
GEE is 10-2 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GEE is 8-0 (+8.6 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)
GEE is 8-1 (+7.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 37-51 (-17.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 19-27 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
LA DODGERS are 37-51 (-17.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
LA DODGERS are 25-36 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
LA DODGERS are 26-38 (-14.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
LA DODGERS are 9-17 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss this season.
LA DODGERS are 61-76 (-19.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 24-41 (-18.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
KERSHAW is 27-34 (-20.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 5-1 (+4.5 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.4 Units)

DILLON GEE vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
GEE is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.876.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. NY METS since 1997
KERSHAW is 3-0 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 1.85 and a WHIP of 1.274.
His team's record is 4-0 (+4.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.2 units)

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SAN DIEGO (40 - 48) at SAN FRANCISCO (49 - 39) - 10:15 PM
CORY LUEBKE (L) vs. BARRY ZITO (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 20-36 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 152-114 (+27.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 68-45 (+16.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 131-78 (+32.8 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 58-29 (+18.6 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 151-112 (+28.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 35-20 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 16-6 (+9.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 17-6 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.
SAN DIEGO is 130-121 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 20-12 (+10.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 66-58 (+21.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 48-44 (+20.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less since 1997.
SAN DIEGO is 128-120 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 65-55 (+14.4 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 9-4 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 (+2.3 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.0 Units)

CORY LUEBKE vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
No recent starts.

BARRY ZITO vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
ZITO is 3-8 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 4.42 and a WHIP of 1.515.
His team's record is 7-10 (-3.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 10-6. (+3.1 units)

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TAMPA BAY (48 - 39) at NY YANKEES (51 - 34) - 7:05 PM
JEFF NIEMANN (R) vs. BARTOLO COLON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 17-23 (-10.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TAMPA BAY is 27-18 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 10-3 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.
TAMPA BAY is 24-16 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TAMPA BAY is 16-9 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
NIEMANN is 18-6 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 27-29 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
NY YANKEES are 27-32 (-12.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 1-1 (+0.4 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.0 Units)

JEFF NIEMANN vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
NIEMANN is 2-0 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.74 and a WHIP of 1.524.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.2 units)

BARTOLO COLON vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
COLON is 9-2 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.63 and a WHIP of 1.298.
His team's record is 11-7 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 14-3. (+11.0 units)

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TORONTO (42 - 46) at CLEVELAND (46 - 39) - 7:05 PM
CARLOS VILLANUEVA (R) vs. ZACH MCALLISTER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 47-39 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 26-15 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 44-36 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 35-25 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CLEVELAND is 35-27 (+11.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CLEVELAND is 26-19 (+8.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
TORONTO is 127-124 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 59-61 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 30-23 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TORONTO is 101-92 (+12.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-1 (+1.4 Units) against TORONTO this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.1 Units)

CARLOS VILLANUEVA vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
No recent starts.

ZACH MCALLISTER vs. TORONTO since 1997
No recent starts.

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BALTIMORE (36 - 48) at BOSTON (51 - 35) - 7:10 PM
JAKE ARRIETA (R) vs. ANDREW MILLER (L)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 30-46 (-16.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 22-36 (-13.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BALTIMORE is 290-407 (-114.0 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters since 1997.
BALTIMORE is 16-31 (-14.0 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
BALTIMORE is 158-285 (-109.7 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
BALTIMORE is 10-30 (-19.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 35-16 (+13.2 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BALTIMORE is 30-32 (+15.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ARRIETA is 16-11 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BOSTON is 4-10 (-12.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 this season.
BOSTON is 52-43 (-17.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-2 (+0.4 Units) against BOSTON this season
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.1 Units)

JAKE ARRIETA vs. BOSTON since 1997
ARRIETA is 0-0 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.200.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

ANDREW MILLER vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
MILLER is 0-0 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.429.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

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DETROIT (46 - 42) at KANSAS CITY (36 - 51) - 8:10 PM
MAX SCHERZER (R) vs. DANNY DUFFY (L)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 49-75 (-21.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 44-68 (-20.0 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 24-30 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
DETROIT is 34-58 (-22.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 21-34 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-20 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SCHERZER is 1-9 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 221-330 (-97.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
KANSAS CITY is 110-169 (-39.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-3 (-0.1 Units) against DETROIT this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.7 Units)

MAX SCHERZER vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
SCHERZER is 3-2 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 2.52 and a WHIP of 1.402.
His team's record is 3-3 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.0 units)

DANNY DUFFY vs. DETROIT since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (38 - 47) at CHI WHITE SOX (43 - 45) - 8:10 PM
CARL PAVANO (R) vs. PHILIP HUMBER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 15-31 (-13.5 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
MINNESOTA is 60-35 (+18.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 126-108 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PAVANO is 142-119 (+25.3 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
PAVANO is 71-43 (+29.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
PAVANO is 23-16 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
PAVANO is 21-13 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHI WHITE SOX are 18-26 (-12.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 9-14 (-10.2 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 40-54 (-24.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 18-24 (-10.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-0 (+5.0 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.0 Units)

CARL PAVANO vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
PAVANO is 7-3 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 3.57 and a WHIP of 1.146.
His team's record is 7-3 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-6. (-2.5 units)

PHILIP HUMBER vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (43 - 44) at LA ANGELS (46 - 42) - 10:05 PM
DOUG FISTER (R) vs. JERED WEAVER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 105-144 (-36.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 28-50 (-21.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 102-138 (-35.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 56-88 (-29.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
FISTER is 14-31 (-15.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FISTER is 13-30 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FISTER is 8-23 (-14.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA ANGELS are 597-513 (+69.1 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997.
SEATTLE is 33-20 (+12.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
SEATTLE is 9-1 (+8.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less this season.
LA ANGELS are 117-123 (-20.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 83-92 (-20.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 (+1.7 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.0 Units)

DOUG FISTER vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
FISTER is 1-2 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.286.
His team's record is 2-3 (-0.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-1. (+2.7 units)

JERED WEAVER vs. SEATTLE since 1997
WEAVER is 11-4 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 3.44 and a WHIP of 1.216.
His team's record is 14-6 (+7.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-6. (+4.6 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (39 - 49) at TEXAS (47 - 41) - 8:05 PM
RICH HARDEN (R) vs. DEREK HOLLAND (L)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 39-49 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 38-47 (-13.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 22-32 (-12.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TEXAS is 20-22 (-9.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
TEXAS is 18-21 (-17.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOLLAND is 5-12 (-10.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 4-2 (+1.6 Units) against TEXAS this season
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+4.0 Units)

RICH HARDEN vs. TEXAS since 1997
HARDEN is 5-2 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 4.27 and a WHIP of 1.316.
His team's record is 8-3 (+4.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-6. (-1.4 units)

DEREK HOLLAND vs. OAKLAND since 1997
HOLLAND is 1-1 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.42 and a WHIP of 1.343.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.2 units)

CNOTES · Jul 7, 2011

MLB
Short Sheet

Thursday, July 7

National League

COLORADO at ATLANTA, 1:05 PM ET MLB
NICASIO: COL 4-15 as road underdog
HUDSON: 129-60 TSR in home games

CHICAGO CUBS at WASHINGTON, 7:05 PM ET WGN
GARZA: 13-27 TSR in road games
HERNANDEZ: 13-4 TSR in home night games

HOUSTON at FLORIDA, 7:10 PM ET
HAPP: 1-10 TSR in night games
HAND: FLA 21-11 off 1 run division win

CINCINNATI at MILWAUKEE, 8:10 PM ET
BAILEY: CIN 7-2 vs. Milwaukee
NARVESON: MIL 7-0 Over at home after allowing 1 run or less

ARIZONA at ST LOUIS, 8:15 PM ET
SAUNDERS: 17-7 Under off team loss
MCCLELLAN: STL 10-0 if 15+ total runs were scored last game

NY METS at LA DODGERS, 10:10 PM ET
GEE: 6-0 TSR in road games
KERSHAW: LAD 13-20 as home favorite

SAN DIEGO at SAN FRANCISCO, 10:15 PM ET
LUEBKE: SD 20-36 in night games
ZITO: SF 16-6 vs. lefties

American League

TAMPA BAY at NY YANKEES, 7:05 PM ET MLB
NIEMANN: 18-6 TSR in road night starts
COLON: 16-5 Under in all starts

TORONTO at CLEVELAND, 7:05 PM ET
VILLANUEVA: 8-0 Under in night games
MCALLISTER: CLE 32-17 if the total is 8.5 to 10

BALTIMORE at BOSTON, 7:10 PM ET MLB
ARRIETA: 16-11 TSR in night games
MILLER: BOS 4-10 as a home favorite of -150 to -175

DETROIT at KANSAS CITY, 8:10 PM ET
SCHERZER: 1-9 TSR in division road games
DUFFY: KC 19-10 Over off BB road games

MINNESOTA at CHI WHITE SOX, 8:10 PM ET
PAVANO: MIN 4-15 off loss by 4+ runs
HUMBER: 7-0 Under off a team loss

SEATTLE at LA ANGELS, 10:05 PM ET
FISTER: 14-31 TSR in all starts
WEAVER: 12-1 Under as favorite of -150 or more

Write-In Game

OAKLAND at TEXAS, 8:05 PM ET
HARDEN: OAK 5-1 Over vs. Texas
HOLLAND: 7-0 Over as home favorite

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

CNOTES · Jul 7, 2011

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
07/06/11 16-*13-*1 55.17% +*1335 Detail
07/05/11 14-*16-*0 46.67% -*845 Detail
07/04/11 14-*14-*1 50.00% -*555 Detail
07/03/11 15-*15-*0 50.00% -*370 Detail
07/02/11 13-*12-*1 52.00% +*250 Detail
07/01/11 16-*13-*0 55.17% +*915 Detail
Totals 88-*83-*3 51.46% +730

Thursday, July 7

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Colorado 1 Bot 2 Colorado +161 500
Atlanta 0 Under 7.5 500

Tampa Bay - 7:05 PM ET NY Yankees -179 500
NY Yankees - Under 9.5 500

Toronto - 7:05 PM ET Toronto -103 500
Cleveland - Over 8.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 7:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs +102 500
Washington - Under 7.5 500

Baltimore - 7:10 PM ET Boston -160 500
Boston - Under 10 500

Houston - 7:10 PM ET Florida -133 500
Florida - Over 8.5 500

Oakland - 8:05 PM ET Texas -133 500
Texas - Under 9.5 500

Minnesota - 8:10 PM ET Minnesota +141 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 8 500

Detroit - 8:10 PM ET Detroit -119 500
Kansas City - Under 8.5 500

Cincinnati - 8:10 PM ET Milwaukee -113 500
Milwaukee - Under 8.5 500

Arizona - 8:15 PM ET St. Louis -137 500
St. Louis - Over 8.5 500

Seattle - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels -182 500
LA Angels - Under 6 500

NY Mets - 10:10 PM ET NY Mets +140 500
LA Dodgers - Under 6.5 500

San Diego - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -109 500
San Francisco - Over 6.5 500

CNOTES · Jul 7, 2011

MLB Series Outlook: Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees

TAMPA BAY RAYS (48-39, +2.8 Units)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (51-34, +6.2 Units)

Sportsbook.com Thursday Series Line: New York -160, Tampa Bay +130

The first-place Yankees hold a comfortable, but far from insurmountable, division lead over the third-place Rays who will look to make up some ground in this four-game clash starting Thursday in the Bronx. While the headlines across the country may be focusing on Derek Jeter and his chase for his 3,000th career hit, the Rays will be concentrating on improving their already strong road record (27-18) to try and catch up to the Red Sox and Yankees. It will be a tough feat, however, considering the Yankees are one of baseball’s best teams at home (28-18).

Neither team has a true advantage with the pitching matchups throughout the four games, which gives the series edge to NEW YORK because its potent lineup should be able to outslug the Rays. Tampa Bay, while successful on the road, will have to contend with a boisterous Yankees home crowd that will be cheering its captain on his way to a career milestone.

The FoxSheets provide a pair of trends favoring the Yankees in this series.

JOE GIRARDI is 68-27 (71.6%, +29.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season as the manager of NY YANKEES. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.5, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 2*).

TAMPA BAY is 57-109 (34.3%, -48.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. The average score was TAMPA BAY 4.3, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Thursday, July 7 – 7:05 EDT
Thursday line: New York -165, Tampa Bay +155, Total: 9.5
TB: 5-4 (+0.95 Units) when Jeff Niemann starts
NYY: 8-3 (+4.25 Units) when Bartolo Colon starts
Jeff Niemann (3-4, 5.05 ERA) has had a rough start to the season for the Rays, who have received strong starting pitching from the rest of their rotation. His peripherals do indicate he has been unlucky, however, because even though he has a low strikeout rate (5.6 K/9), he has been good at finding the strike zone, only allowing 2.3 BB/9. He has also been better on the road this season, with a 4.34 ERA away from Tampa Bay.
Bartolo Colon (6-2, 2.71 ERA) has been an unlikely savior for the Yankees rotation - he has probably been the Yankees’ second best starter this season behind CC Sabathia. He has not allowed a run in four of his past six outings (29.2 IP), and is currently riding a four-start win streak, posting a 1.00 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over this span. His start will be key in this series for the Yankees, because it’s the one game where they really have the pitching advantage.

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 8 - 7:05 EDT
Friday line: TBD
TB: 8-8 (-0.85 Units) when Jeremy Hellickson starts
NYY: 8-7 (-1.00 Units) when Freddy Garcia starts
After a dazzling freshman campaign, Hellickson (8-7, 3.21 ERA) has continued that into his sophomore season where he has allowed 3 ER or less in 14 of 16 starts. He has never started against the Yankees, but faced them twice last year in relief and allowed two runs in 3.2 innings. His inability to miss bats (5.9 K/9) may prove dangerous in the small, hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.
Like Colon, Garcia (7-6, 3.07 ERA) has been an unlikely source of help for the Yankees this season. He is on a roll of five consecutive quality starts, and has allowed only three earned runs in his past three starts (20 innings). The one thing to watch out for is teams have been good at making contact against him at home: he has a .272 opponents’ BA that has given him a 3.60 ERA at Yankee Stadium, compared to his .242 opp. BA and 2.57 ERA on the road.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 9 - 1:05 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
TB: 11-7 (+1.70 Units) when David Price starts
NYY: 8-10 (-5.75 Units) when A.J. Burnett starts
Price (8-7, 3.56 ERA) makes an important start for the Rays in what should be the one game in which they have the true pitching advantage. Although he got beat up in his last start against Minnesota (6 IP, 4 ER), he has been a workhorse all year for the Rays, reliably taking them deep into games (124 innings, 8th-most in AL) and keeping them competitive. In his one start against the Yankees this season he was hit hard, however, allowing five runs in five innings. He is 3-1 with a 3.93 ERA in eight career starts versus New York.
Burnett (8-7, 4.12 ERA) has been inconsistent for the Yankees, the trademark of his stay with the team. The Rays clobbered him the one time they faced him this season for six runs in 5.2 innings, with three players hitting home runs. The Rays definitely have the pitching edge in this game, but this is the only game where that can be definitively said.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 10 - 1:05 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
TB: 12-6 (+3.75 Units) when James Shields starts
NYY: 14-5 (+6.20 Units) when CC Sabathia starts
After a rough 2010, Shields (8-6, 2.47 ERA) has been a true ace for the Rays this year. Although he has been better at home, he still has a sub-3.00 ERA on the road. Also, notably, he thrives in day games where he has a 1.61 ERA this season, and 67 strikeouts in 56 innings pitched. The one thing to watch out for is his lack of success against the Yankees throughout his career. He pitched decently despite losing in his one start against them this year (7 IP, 3 ER), but has a career 4.83 ERA and 3-9 record in 16 starts against the perennial division favorites.
Sabathia (12-4, 2.90 ERA) makes this a true face-off between two aces, and the Rays are seeing him at the wrong time. The All-Star snub has not allowed a run in his past two starts, and only one run in his past 22.2 innings. He has also found success against the Rays throughout his career, with an 8-5 mark and 3.24 ERA in 20 overall starts. The Yankees’ 14-5 record when Sabathia pitches is the highest win percentage (74%) of any AL pitcher with at least 10 starts. Teammate Bartolo Colon is second in the league at 8-3 (73%).

CNOTES · Jul 7, 2011

MLB Series Outlook: Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees

TAMPA BAY RAYS (48-39, +2.8 Units)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (51-34, +6.2 Units)

Sportsbook.com Thursday Series Line: New York -160, Tampa Bay +130

The first-place Yankees hold a comfortable, but far from insurmountable, division lead over the third-place Rays who will look to make up some ground in this four-game clash starting Thursday in the Bronx. While the headlines across the country may be focusing on Derek Jeter and his chase for his 3,000th career hit, the Rays will be concentrating on improving their already strong road record (27-18) to try and catch up to the Red Sox and Yankees. It will be a tough feat, however, considering the Yankees are one of baseball’s best teams at home (28-18).

Neither team has a true advantage with the pitching matchups throughout the four games, which gives the series edge to NEW YORK because its potent lineup should be able to outslug the Rays. Tampa Bay, while successful on the road, will have to contend with a boisterous Yankees home crowd that will be cheering its captain on his way to a career milestone.

The FoxSheets provide a pair of trends favoring the Yankees in this series.

JOE GIRARDI is 68-27 (71.6%, +29.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season as the manager of NY YANKEES. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.5, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 2*).

TAMPA BAY is 57-109 (34.3%, -48.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. The average score was TAMPA BAY 4.3, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Thursday, July 7 – 7:05 EDT
Thursday line: New York -165, Tampa Bay +155, Total: 9.5
TB: 5-4 (+0.95 Units) when Jeff Niemann starts
NYY: 8-3 (+4.25 Units) when Bartolo Colon starts
Jeff Niemann (3-4, 5.05 ERA) has had a rough start to the season for the Rays, who have received strong starting pitching from the rest of their rotation. His peripherals do indicate he has been unlucky, however, because even though he has a low strikeout rate (5.6 K/9), he has been good at finding the strike zone, only allowing 2.3 BB/9. He has also been better on the road this season, with a 4.34 ERA away from Tampa Bay.
Bartolo Colon (6-2, 2.71 ERA) has been an unlikely savior for the Yankees rotation - he has probably been the Yankees’ second best starter this season behind CC Sabathia. He has not allowed a run in four of his past six outings (29.2 IP), and is currently riding a four-start win streak, posting a 1.00 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over this span. His start will be key in this series for the Yankees, because it’s the one game where they really have the pitching advantage.

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 8 - 7:05 EDT
Friday line: TBD
TB: 8-8 (-0.85 Units) when Jeremy Hellickson starts
NYY: 8-7 (-1.00 Units) when Freddy Garcia starts
After a dazzling freshman campaign, Hellickson (8-7, 3.21 ERA) has continued that into his sophomore season where he has allowed 3 ER or less in 14 of 16 starts. He has never started against the Yankees, but faced them twice last year in relief and allowed two runs in 3.2 innings. His inability to miss bats (5.9 K/9) may prove dangerous in the small, hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.
Like Colon, Garcia (7-6, 3.07 ERA) has been an unlikely source of help for the Yankees this season. He is on a roll of five consecutive quality starts, and has allowed only three earned runs in his past three starts (20 innings). The one thing to watch out for is teams have been good at making contact against him at home: he has a .272 opponents’ BA that has given him a 3.60 ERA at Yankee Stadium, compared to his .242 opp. BA and 2.57 ERA on the road.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 9 - 1:05 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
TB: 11-7 (+1.70 Units) when David Price starts
NYY: 8-10 (-5.75 Units) when A.J. Burnett starts
Price (8-7, 3.56 ERA) makes an important start for the Rays in what should be the one game in which they have the true pitching advantage. Although he got beat up in his last start against Minnesota (6 IP, 4 ER), he has been a workhorse all year for the Rays, reliably taking them deep into games (124 innings, 8th-most in AL) and keeping them competitive. In his one start against the Yankees this season he was hit hard, however, allowing five runs in five innings. He is 3-1 with a 3.93 ERA in eight career starts versus New York.
Burnett (8-7, 4.12 ERA) has been inconsistent for the Yankees, the trademark of his stay with the team. The Rays clobbered him the one time they faced him this season for six runs in 5.2 innings, with three players hitting home runs. The Rays definitely have the pitching edge in this game, but this is the only game where that can be definitively said.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 10 - 1:05 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
TB: 12-6 (+3.75 Units) when James Shields starts
NYY: 14-5 (+6.20 Units) when CC Sabathia starts
After a rough 2010, Shields (8-6, 2.47 ERA) has been a true ace for the Rays this year. Although he has been better at home, he still has a sub-3.00 ERA on the road. Also, notably, he thrives in day games where he has a 1.61 ERA this season, and 67 strikeouts in 56 innings pitched. The one thing to watch out for is his lack of success against the Yankees throughout his career. He pitched decently despite losing in his one start against them this year (7 IP, 3 ER), but has a career 4.83 ERA and 3-9 record in 16 starts against the perennial division favorites.
Sabathia (12-4, 2.90 ERA) makes this a true face-off between two aces, and the Rays are seeing him at the wrong time. The All-Star snub has not allowed a run in his past two starts, and only one run in his past 22.2 innings. He has also found success against the Rays throughout his career, with an 8-5 mark and 3.24 ERA in 20 overall starts. The Yankees’ 14-5 record when Sabathia pitches is the highest win percentage (74%) of any AL pitcher with at least 10 starts. Teammate Bartolo Colon is second in the league at 8-3 (73%).

CNOTES · Jul 7, 2011

MLB Series Outlook: Baltimore at Boston

BALTIMORE ORIOLES (36-48, -10.2 Units)

at BOSTON RED SOX (51-35, +0.3 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: Boston -250, Baltimore +190

Boston can take a firm grasp of a playoff spot and possibly overtake the Yankees at the All-Star break if they can beat the slumping Orioles in a four-game series at home starting Thursday night.

But that hasn’t been easy over the past two seasons. The teams have split their 22 games since the start of 2010. The Orioles took two of three from Boston in Baltimore in April, while the Sox needed a late rally to win the only game of a rain-shortened series in Fenway on May 16. The fact that the teams are sending some unsteady arms to the mound this weekend adds some unpredictability to the series. Friday’s (Josh Beckett vs. Zach Britton) is the only pitching matchup in which the Sox have a clear advantage. But with the Orioles’ pitching staff in shambles and allowing 30 runs while getting swept in Texas, heavily-favored BOSTON is the pick.

The FoxSheets have a three-star trend working against Baltimore.

BALTIMORE is 10-30 (25.0%, -19.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.4, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 3*).

Pitching Probables for Thursday, July 7 - 7:10 ET
Thursday line: Boston -155, Baltimore +145, Total: 10
BAL: 10-7 (+3.1 Units) when Jake Arrieta starts
BOS: 3-0 (+3.0 Units) when Andrew Miller starts
Since a career-best seven shutout innings against Tampa on June 10, Arrieta (9-5, 4.74 ERA) has not been sharp. He’s allowed 11 runs (all earned) in 16.2 innings over his past three starts. He held his own in his lone start against Boston, last September at home, giving up three runs in five innings but allowing only six base runners while striking out five.
It’s been so far so good for Miller (2-0, 3.06 ERA) who is coming off two straight wins and two straight quality starts. Granted, those two wins were on the road against Pittsburgh and Houston (so no DH). Walks have been an issue over the years, but he walked just two over six innings in each of those starts, giving up four runs (three earned). He was a much different pitcher the only time he faced Baltimore, as a member of the Marlins in 2009, but he dominated the Orioles in that game, allowing one hit and one run over seven innings.

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 8 - 7:10 ET
Friday line: TBD
BAL: 9-8 (+0.9 Units) when Zach Britton starts
BOS: 11-5 (+5.1 Units) when Josh Beckett starts
After a fast start to his rookie year, Britton (6-6, 3.47 ERA) has been shaky at best. Over his past seven starts, he’s 1-4 with a 5.35 ERA and has allowed seven unearned runs to boot. Baltimore has dropped five of those seven starts. He gave Boston fits when he faced them back in April, holding them to one run over six innings in a victory in Baltimore.
Beckett (7-3, 2.12 ERA) has been excellent throughout 2011, but especially at home. In six home starts, he’s allowed more than one run just once while posting a 1.17 ERA. Boston has won five of those six games. He’s been outstanding wherever he pitches of late. Aside from a shaky start in Philadelphia on June 28, his past four starts have included wins over the Yankees (7 innings, 4 hits, 2 runs), Rays (one-hit shutout) and Astros (8 innings, 1 run, 11 strikeouts), all on the road.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 9 - 7:10 ET
Saturday line: TBD
BAL: 3-3 (+0.4 Units) when Chris Jakubauskas starts
BOS: 5-8 (-6.3 Units) when John Lackey starts
Jakubauskas (2-2, 6.75 ERA) has been a mess of late, allowing six runs in two-plus innings in Texas on Monday and allowing five runs in five innings against the Cardinals in his previous start. He beat the Sox as a member of the Mariners back in May 2009, allowing four runs (three earned) over six innings.
Just when it seemed like he might be turning a corner, Lackey (5-8, 7.47 ERA) reverted to train-wreck form against Toronto on Monday. He was chased in the third inning after allowing seven runs and nine hits in 2.1 innings. He’s struggled at Fenway throughout his career, especially this season. Lackey has just one quality starts in seven outings at Fenway this year, posting a 9.17 ERA over 34.1 innings.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 10 - 1:35 ET
Sunday line: TBD
BAL: 0-1 (-1.0 Units) when Mitch Atkins starts
BOS: 1-3 (-4.1 Units) when Alfredo Aceves starts
This will be the second career start for Atkins (0-0, 1.50 ERA), who was sharp in Texas on Tuesday. He held the Rangers to one run over six innings, allowing eight hits, but striking out four while walking none in a no-decision. A repeat performance is a tall order though. While he posted a respectable 3.18 ERA over three minor-league levels this season, the 25-year-old righty was far from dominant, striking out only 62 over 82 innings.
Aceves (3-1, 3.74 ERA) has been in and out of the rotation all season, posting a 2.81 ERA as a reliever but only a 5.14 mark over four starts. His past two starts were particularly ugly. He allowed eight runs (six earned) over five innings against the White Sox on May 31. And on June 21, he gave up four runs and walked six in just five innings against the punchless Padres.

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