Yesterday 1 2 0 -2.90 Units
Last 30 Days 36 43 1 -3.90 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 119 145 2 -18.72 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Houston +134 over FLORIDA
Jordan Lyles’s last three starts came against the Rangers twice and the Red Sox. He had two solid outings in which he allowed just three earned runs in 7 IP in Texas and he gave up just one earned run to the Red Sox in five full. The other game against Texas he went six full and allowed five earned runs. In seven starts he’s winless with four no-decisions but the kid has good stuff and he’s definitely on the verge of his much deserved first win. The Marlins offense has been going bad for two months now and laying significant juice with a struggling combined with a poor pitcher is very risky indeed. Javier Vazquez has a 5.64 ERA and it’s even worse in his some yard, where his ERA is 6.89. He’s coming off a sharp outing in Texas, which is mystifying to say the least but any team could have an off day at the plate and it appears the Rangers did that day. Vazquez has only allowed four earned runs in his last four starts combined but we’re not buying it, as he allowed 18 hits in 10 innings over two of those starts and his strand rate over the combined four starts was 88%. Vazquez and the Marlins are overpriced and that’s all there is to it. Play: Houston +134 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +149 over CHICAGO
This line is simply nuts. There’s something seriously wrong with the White Sox. If you’ve bet on this team at all this year, you’ve likely sat there pulling your hair out because no team is more frustrating to bet on. They don’t execute. They can’t sacrifice a runner or get them in from third with less than two outs. Why Ozzie bats Adam Dunn third, fourth or fifth every game is puzzling as hell. Last night Carl Pavano had four k’s against Chicago and Dunn struck out three times. He’s now batting .163 and he hit cleanup last night. He’s hitting after Konerko so “Paulie” is getting nothing to hit these days. Nick Blackburn has been roughed up the past couple of starts but so what. They South Side is making every pitcher look good these days and at least Blackburn is very capable of throwing a gem, as he’s thrown plenty of them this year. He’s an elite groundballer, he has outstanding control and he definitely has a chance to win this one. Gavin Floyd is a decent pitcher with a 6-8 record and a 4.17 ERA. However, he’s been hit pretty hard at home all year with just two wins and a 5.21 ERA. So, in a game where the South Side has no advantage whatsoever, we’ll take the generous tag being offered. Play: Minnesota +149 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +111 over ST. LOUIS
Kyle Lohse is a sell-high special. Lohse has been a godsend for St. Louis in a year that saw the club lose Adam Wainwright at the start of spring training. Fantasy owners who gambled on Lohse after last year's disaster are probably saying the same. Will they be just as happy in September? Not likely. His strikeout rate is also the worst since 2005, as Lohse appears to be buying into Dave Duncan's pitch-to-contact mantra. So far, allowing hitters to take their swings has paid off thanks to a low hit rate. With history as a guide, we should expect that hit % to rise, along with Lohse's WHIP and ERA. Lohse seems to finally be healthy, which is reflected by his improved skills. But his performance has also been heavily influenced by luck. That said, we should look to his xERA history and his xERA of 4.94 over the past month as a guide for what to expect the rest of the season. And the gap between his skills and stellar surface stats make him an ideal pitcher to wager against. Ian Kennedy has a strong strikeout rate and excellent command. He’s whiffed 102 in 122 frames while walking just 32. His xERA over the past month is 2.92. Offensively these two rank very close to one another but on the mound for this one, they do not and it’s not in the Cards favor. Play: Arizona +111 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit –107 over KANSAS CITY
Rick Porcello had a recent rough patch of three starts in which he was hit hard and posted an ERA of 8.80. But a wave of bad hit %-luck was a big part of that stretch and Porcello comes into this start off a solid outing against the Giants. He has a decent career line (.693 OPS allowed) against KC batters and his recent struggles work in our favor because we get a very good price to bet on the Tigers against Kyle Davies, one of the three worst pitchers in all of baseball and that includes the minors. Here's yet another way to express how bad things have gotten in KC. Kyle Davies and his never-above-25 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) have logged nearly 500 IP over last three years. Royals fans, you deserve better. The Royals have lost the last seven games that Davies has started. He has a 1.91 WHIP, a BAA of .351,an ERA of 7.77 (isn’t that a jackpot) and over his last four starts he’s walked nine and struck out eight. Between spending all of June and half of May on the DL mixed with terrible pitching you have to wonder how many more starts Davies will receive. After the all-star break you may never see Davies pitch another game so get a good look at him tonight. Play: Detroit –107 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
Last 30 Days 36 43 1 -3.90 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 119 145 2 -18.72 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Houston +134 over FLORIDA
Jordan Lyles’s last three starts came against the Rangers twice and the Red Sox. He had two solid outings in which he allowed just three earned runs in 7 IP in Texas and he gave up just one earned run to the Red Sox in five full. The other game against Texas he went six full and allowed five earned runs. In seven starts he’s winless with four no-decisions but the kid has good stuff and he’s definitely on the verge of his much deserved first win. The Marlins offense has been going bad for two months now and laying significant juice with a struggling combined with a poor pitcher is very risky indeed. Javier Vazquez has a 5.64 ERA and it’s even worse in his some yard, where his ERA is 6.89. He’s coming off a sharp outing in Texas, which is mystifying to say the least but any team could have an off day at the plate and it appears the Rangers did that day. Vazquez has only allowed four earned runs in his last four starts combined but we’re not buying it, as he allowed 18 hits in 10 innings over two of those starts and his strand rate over the combined four starts was 88%. Vazquez and the Marlins are overpriced and that’s all there is to it. Play: Houston +134 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +149 over CHICAGO
This line is simply nuts. There’s something seriously wrong with the White Sox. If you’ve bet on this team at all this year, you’ve likely sat there pulling your hair out because no team is more frustrating to bet on. They don’t execute. They can’t sacrifice a runner or get them in from third with less than two outs. Why Ozzie bats Adam Dunn third, fourth or fifth every game is puzzling as hell. Last night Carl Pavano had four k’s against Chicago and Dunn struck out three times. He’s now batting .163 and he hit cleanup last night. He’s hitting after Konerko so “Paulie” is getting nothing to hit these days. Nick Blackburn has been roughed up the past couple of starts but so what. They South Side is making every pitcher look good these days and at least Blackburn is very capable of throwing a gem, as he’s thrown plenty of them this year. He’s an elite groundballer, he has outstanding control and he definitely has a chance to win this one. Gavin Floyd is a decent pitcher with a 6-8 record and a 4.17 ERA. However, he’s been hit pretty hard at home all year with just two wins and a 5.21 ERA. So, in a game where the South Side has no advantage whatsoever, we’ll take the generous tag being offered. Play: Minnesota +149 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +111 over ST. LOUIS
Kyle Lohse is a sell-high special. Lohse has been a godsend for St. Louis in a year that saw the club lose Adam Wainwright at the start of spring training. Fantasy owners who gambled on Lohse after last year's disaster are probably saying the same. Will they be just as happy in September? Not likely. His strikeout rate is also the worst since 2005, as Lohse appears to be buying into Dave Duncan's pitch-to-contact mantra. So far, allowing hitters to take their swings has paid off thanks to a low hit rate. With history as a guide, we should expect that hit % to rise, along with Lohse's WHIP and ERA. Lohse seems to finally be healthy, which is reflected by his improved skills. But his performance has also been heavily influenced by luck. That said, we should look to his xERA history and his xERA of 4.94 over the past month as a guide for what to expect the rest of the season. And the gap between his skills and stellar surface stats make him an ideal pitcher to wager against. Ian Kennedy has a strong strikeout rate and excellent command. He’s whiffed 102 in 122 frames while walking just 32. His xERA over the past month is 2.92. Offensively these two rank very close to one another but on the mound for this one, they do not and it’s not in the Cards favor. Play: Arizona +111 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit –107 over KANSAS CITY
Rick Porcello had a recent rough patch of three starts in which he was hit hard and posted an ERA of 8.80. But a wave of bad hit %-luck was a big part of that stretch and Porcello comes into this start off a solid outing against the Giants. He has a decent career line (.693 OPS allowed) against KC batters and his recent struggles work in our favor because we get a very good price to bet on the Tigers against Kyle Davies, one of the three worst pitchers in all of baseball and that includes the minors. Here's yet another way to express how bad things have gotten in KC. Kyle Davies and his never-above-25 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) have logged nearly 500 IP over last three years. Royals fans, you deserve better. The Royals have lost the last seven games that Davies has started. He has a 1.91 WHIP, a BAA of .351,an ERA of 7.77 (isn’t that a jackpot) and over his last four starts he’s walked nine and struck out eight. Between spending all of June and half of May on the DL mixed with terrible pitching you have to wonder how many more starts Davies will receive. After the all-star break you may never see Davies pitch another game so get a good look at him tonight. Play: Detroit –107 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
