Yesterday 3 1 0 +5.20 Units
Last 30 Days 38 42 1 +2.96 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 122 146 2 -13.52 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Minnesota +143 over CHICAGO
Can’t find a single reason not to back the Twins again. They South Side keep finding ways to lose ball games. They scored five times on Nick Blackburn on the first inning last night and did not score again. It was Chicago’s eighth straight loss to the Twinkies at U.S. Cellular. This is a Sox team that is just way out of sorts right now. They are unimpressive in everything they do from the small things to the fundamentals. They’ve scored 18 runs over their past seven games and that’s after facing a cluster of stiffs like Jeff Francis, Carl Pavano, Bruce Chen, Rodrigo Lopez and even against Aaron Cook in Colorado eight games ago, they scored one run on five hits. The White Sox are a horrible and risky favorite that is playing with zero passion and less heart. Mark Buehrle keeps winning games with mediocre skills and without trying to sound redundant it simply cannot last. Control still elite but strikeout rate is dragging in wrong direction. A two-year trend of xERA and BPV** (for explanation of BPV see under these write-ups) erosion hasn’t hurt him yet with yet being the key word. Brian Duensing is a pitcher that is consistent in his approach and results. He’ll never be anything but a #3 or #4 starter but what he will do is keep the Twins in games. We wouldn’t endorse him as the chalk in most cases but in this case he and the Twins are very worthy of a wager. The South Side remains a pathetic team to wager on and until that changes they are a big fade. Play: Minnesota +143 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +101 over CLEVELAND
The Jays should be up 2-0 in this series but that bounce-back win last night was a good one and the Jays are in a great spot for another win. Toronto’s offense has come back to life. With Yunel Escobar swinging a hot bat and with recent call-ups Travis Snider and Eric Thames doing the same, the Jays are suddenly more potent and much more dangerous. It’s no longer Adam Lind and Jose Bautista doing all the damage. Besides that, Josh Tomlin favored over Brandon Morrow is ridiculous. Morrow has 96 k’s in 80 innings and no team in the AL has struck out more times than the Indians count of 653. Morrow has an unlucky hit%/strand% (35%/63%) combo. That combo, which fed the forecasts for a 2011 surge, has not gotten better, but worse. The effect remains the same: his ERA (4.73) will rebound closer to his xERA (3.41) at some point. Morrow has elite stuff and should get plenty of run support here. Josh Tomlin has elite control but he doesn’t miss a lot of bats. He’s coming off a June in which he posted an ERA of 5.84. Tomlin is a finesse artist that lacks a groundball approach (38%) and his 10-4 record sets this one up as the Indians wrongly being billed as the favorite. Play: Toronto +101 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +109 over N.Y. YANKEES
The Yanks always seem to bring out the best in the Rays but more than that is the pitching match-up of A.J. Burnett against David Price. Both these teams have seen plenty of the opposing pitchers and the edge goes to the Rays. Current Tampa hitters are batting .268 off Burnett in 179 combined AB’s while current Yankee hitters are batting just .217 off Price in 166 career AB’s. Price has walked 23 batters in 124 IP while whiffing 122. A.J. has walked 49 and whiffed 91 in 113.2 frames. The Yanks have lost six of Burnett’s last 10 starts while the Rays have won six of Price’s last 10. The Yanks have scored three runs or less in four of their past five games while the Rays have scored five or more in four of their last six. The Yanks rely heavily on the long ball and they’re especially dangerous against southpaws at Yankee Stadium but in no way do they have an edge on the hill here. Furthermore, Nick Swisher and A-Rod may not go, as they both continue to nurse a couple of nagging injuries and only in New York against the Yanks will you get David Price plus a tag against an inferior mound opponent. Play: Tampa Bay +109 (Risking 2 units).
PITTSBURGH –108 over Chicago
Let’s put aside the pitching match-up for a sec because we can’t make a case for Kevin Correia over Ryan Dempster. What we can make a case for is the Pirates as a team over the Cubbies as a team. Pittsburgh beat the Cubbies last night again to move into second place in the NL Central, just a game behind the Brewers. PNC Park was rocking with a sell out crowd and it’ll be even more exciting tonight. This city has fallen in love with the Pirates and the players can’t wait to get back to the park and get back into action. The other side of that coin is the Cubbies, who are 12 games out of first and have one of the worst records in baseball. The Cubbies have just two wins in their last seven games and one of them, a 10-9 win on Thursday, was about as ugly as they come. So, in terms of momentum, state of mind and desire to win, give a huge edge to the home side. Kevin Correia faces an offense that is flat-out mediocre across-the-board, regardless of how you slice it. Current Cubs' hitters have hit only .223 with a .558 OPS against Correia and this season Correia is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA against Chicago. By contrast, Ryan Dempster is 1-1 with a 5.68 ERA against the Bucco’s and while Dempster has better stuff than Correia, it does not seem to matter when he faces the Pirates, a team he rarely pitches well against. Play: Pittsburgh –108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
Last 30 Days 38 42 1 +2.96 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 122 146 2 -13.52 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Minnesota +143 over CHICAGO
Can’t find a single reason not to back the Twins again. They South Side keep finding ways to lose ball games. They scored five times on Nick Blackburn on the first inning last night and did not score again. It was Chicago’s eighth straight loss to the Twinkies at U.S. Cellular. This is a Sox team that is just way out of sorts right now. They are unimpressive in everything they do from the small things to the fundamentals. They’ve scored 18 runs over their past seven games and that’s after facing a cluster of stiffs like Jeff Francis, Carl Pavano, Bruce Chen, Rodrigo Lopez and even against Aaron Cook in Colorado eight games ago, they scored one run on five hits. The White Sox are a horrible and risky favorite that is playing with zero passion and less heart. Mark Buehrle keeps winning games with mediocre skills and without trying to sound redundant it simply cannot last. Control still elite but strikeout rate is dragging in wrong direction. A two-year trend of xERA and BPV** (for explanation of BPV see under these write-ups) erosion hasn’t hurt him yet with yet being the key word. Brian Duensing is a pitcher that is consistent in his approach and results. He’ll never be anything but a #3 or #4 starter but what he will do is keep the Twins in games. We wouldn’t endorse him as the chalk in most cases but in this case he and the Twins are very worthy of a wager. The South Side remains a pathetic team to wager on and until that changes they are a big fade. Play: Minnesota +143 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +101 over CLEVELAND
The Jays should be up 2-0 in this series but that bounce-back win last night was a good one and the Jays are in a great spot for another win. Toronto’s offense has come back to life. With Yunel Escobar swinging a hot bat and with recent call-ups Travis Snider and Eric Thames doing the same, the Jays are suddenly more potent and much more dangerous. It’s no longer Adam Lind and Jose Bautista doing all the damage. Besides that, Josh Tomlin favored over Brandon Morrow is ridiculous. Morrow has 96 k’s in 80 innings and no team in the AL has struck out more times than the Indians count of 653. Morrow has an unlucky hit%/strand% (35%/63%) combo. That combo, which fed the forecasts for a 2011 surge, has not gotten better, but worse. The effect remains the same: his ERA (4.73) will rebound closer to his xERA (3.41) at some point. Morrow has elite stuff and should get plenty of run support here. Josh Tomlin has elite control but he doesn’t miss a lot of bats. He’s coming off a June in which he posted an ERA of 5.84. Tomlin is a finesse artist that lacks a groundball approach (38%) and his 10-4 record sets this one up as the Indians wrongly being billed as the favorite. Play: Toronto +101 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +109 over N.Y. YANKEES
The Yanks always seem to bring out the best in the Rays but more than that is the pitching match-up of A.J. Burnett against David Price. Both these teams have seen plenty of the opposing pitchers and the edge goes to the Rays. Current Tampa hitters are batting .268 off Burnett in 179 combined AB’s while current Yankee hitters are batting just .217 off Price in 166 career AB’s. Price has walked 23 batters in 124 IP while whiffing 122. A.J. has walked 49 and whiffed 91 in 113.2 frames. The Yanks have lost six of Burnett’s last 10 starts while the Rays have won six of Price’s last 10. The Yanks have scored three runs or less in four of their past five games while the Rays have scored five or more in four of their last six. The Yanks rely heavily on the long ball and they’re especially dangerous against southpaws at Yankee Stadium but in no way do they have an edge on the hill here. Furthermore, Nick Swisher and A-Rod may not go, as they both continue to nurse a couple of nagging injuries and only in New York against the Yanks will you get David Price plus a tag against an inferior mound opponent. Play: Tampa Bay +109 (Risking 2 units).
PITTSBURGH –108 over Chicago
Let’s put aside the pitching match-up for a sec because we can’t make a case for Kevin Correia over Ryan Dempster. What we can make a case for is the Pirates as a team over the Cubbies as a team. Pittsburgh beat the Cubbies last night again to move into second place in the NL Central, just a game behind the Brewers. PNC Park was rocking with a sell out crowd and it’ll be even more exciting tonight. This city has fallen in love with the Pirates and the players can’t wait to get back to the park and get back into action. The other side of that coin is the Cubbies, who are 12 games out of first and have one of the worst records in baseball. The Cubbies have just two wins in their last seven games and one of them, a 10-9 win on Thursday, was about as ugly as they come. So, in terms of momentum, state of mind and desire to win, give a huge edge to the home side. Kevin Correia faces an offense that is flat-out mediocre across-the-board, regardless of how you slice it. Current Cubs' hitters have hit only .223 with a .558 OPS against Correia and this season Correia is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA against Chicago. By contrast, Ryan Dempster is 1-1 with a 5.68 ERA against the Bucco’s and while Dempster has better stuff than Correia, it does not seem to matter when he faces the Pirates, a team he rarely pitches well against. Play: Pittsburgh –108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
