Yesterday 1 3 0 -4.14 Units
Last 30 Days 37 45 1 -5.54 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 123 149 2 -17.66 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Tampa Bay +158 over NEW YORK
Congrats to Derek Jeter, the guy did it with pure class in much the same way he’s been his whole career. After a win and a night of celebration, we could catch the Yanks in a letdown spot. Regardless of whether that comes to pass or not, the Rays are still taking back some strong value with James Shields on the hill. When Shields is dealing it he’s one of the best in the business. Everything about this guy is elite. He’s struck out 132 in 135 IP while walking a mere 33 batters. His 2.37 ERA aligns well with his 2.89 xERA and his 1.00 WHIP is also one of games best. Shields is 5-2 on the road with a 2.94 ERA and he recently threw three complete games in a row in which he allowed 12 hits and one earned run in those 27 frames. Only in New York against the Yanks would a price like this be offered on Shields and regardless of the outcome, he’s a must play at this price. C.C. Sabathia needs no introduction. He’s solid, reliable and consistently great. The Yanks have won his last five starts and nine of his last 10. He has now held opposing batters to one run over his last 22.2 innings and he’s going to be tough to score on again. Having said that, expect a low scoring game that could easily be decided by the pens. Again, in such a close match-up among two of the best, the tag and the possible letdown angle is what seals the deal. Definite overlay. Play: Tampa Bay +158 (Risking 2 units).
PITTSBURGH –1½ +162 over Chicago
The musical chairs at the back end of the Cubs rotation continues, as Ramon Ortiz gets another shot here after he held the Nats to three runs (two earned) in six innings. That’s nice, it really is but we’re here to tell you that every ball was scorched and we seriously mean scorched. The problem was they were hit right at people. For the Iowa Cubs, Ortiz allowed 115 hits (.292 BAA) in 99 innings and 12 of those hits went yard. His ERA in the minors this year was 4.45. He was also was in the minors from ’05 to ’07 and he posted ERA’s of 5.46, 5.57 and 5.45 respectively in those three years. Ortiz is 38 years old and he’s a fill in until the Cubs get some healthy bodies back. He was extremely lucky in his season debut, period. The Pirates have been a resilient and strong bounce back club all season long. They’ll get plenty of opportunities to score today in front of what should be another packed house. Paul Maholm has outstanding numbers the first and second time he goes through lineups. Things fall apart for him late in games so if he can find a solution for his late game troubles, his stock will rise fast. Maholm has a strong groundball profile and at PNC Park this year his ERA is 2.02. Laying 1½-runs at home or anywhere is risky and that’s why the price is so high. However, against Ortiz, it’s worth a bet because the Pirates should score five runs or more today. Play: Pittsburgh –1½ +162 (Risking 2 units).
BOSTON –1½ +125 over Baltimore
Battle of minor league call-ups here and a big edge goes to Kyle Weiland of the Red Sox. At Pawtucket this year, Weiland allowed 69 hits in 93 IP for a BAA of .206. He also struck out 99 while walking 37. Weiland has seen his stock rise in '11 thanks to his improved control and consistency in his curveball. He is a tall and lean pitcher with a heavy 88-94 mph fastball that exhibits above average movement and sink. He has added a cutter to his repertoire, which gives hitters another look. Weiland locates his fastball with precision and he can drop in an impressive curveball to register strikeouts. A solid-average change-up rounds out his arsenal and he holds his velocity deep into games. The kid is major-league ready. Mitch Atkins made his season debut in Texas of all places and he allowed one run in six frames. WHAT??!! Don’t get too excited because a repeat performance is unlikely. In need of a spot starter, the Orioles recalled the 25-year-old from Triple-A. Atkins has some Major League time to his credit - 12 IP with the Cubs between '09 and '10 - but he's spent most of the past four seasons in Triple-A. He was originally drafted by Chicago before signing a minor league contract with Baltimore in November '10. Atkins is large and durable. He's able to repeat his high 3/4 delivery consistently, but his fringy stuff doesn't project to anything more than average at the big league level. With an 88-92 mph fastball, cutter, curveball, and changeup, he can mix his pitches effectively, though none are considered out pitches. While he may not walk many batters, Atkins doesn't have polished command or location of his fastball. He is prone to giving up HR’s, as he is a flyball pitcher. He has a career 4.21 ERA in the minors. The Orioles have been outscored 24-7 in the first three games of this series and the onslaught is likely to continue here. Play: Boston –1½ +125 (Risking 2 units).
See ya after the all-star break!
Last 30 Days 37 45 1 -5.54 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 123 149 2 -17.66 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Tampa Bay +158 over NEW YORK
Congrats to Derek Jeter, the guy did it with pure class in much the same way he’s been his whole career. After a win and a night of celebration, we could catch the Yanks in a letdown spot. Regardless of whether that comes to pass or not, the Rays are still taking back some strong value with James Shields on the hill. When Shields is dealing it he’s one of the best in the business. Everything about this guy is elite. He’s struck out 132 in 135 IP while walking a mere 33 batters. His 2.37 ERA aligns well with his 2.89 xERA and his 1.00 WHIP is also one of games best. Shields is 5-2 on the road with a 2.94 ERA and he recently threw three complete games in a row in which he allowed 12 hits and one earned run in those 27 frames. Only in New York against the Yanks would a price like this be offered on Shields and regardless of the outcome, he’s a must play at this price. C.C. Sabathia needs no introduction. He’s solid, reliable and consistently great. The Yanks have won his last five starts and nine of his last 10. He has now held opposing batters to one run over his last 22.2 innings and he’s going to be tough to score on again. Having said that, expect a low scoring game that could easily be decided by the pens. Again, in such a close match-up among two of the best, the tag and the possible letdown angle is what seals the deal. Definite overlay. Play: Tampa Bay +158 (Risking 2 units).
PITTSBURGH –1½ +162 over Chicago
The musical chairs at the back end of the Cubs rotation continues, as Ramon Ortiz gets another shot here after he held the Nats to three runs (two earned) in six innings. That’s nice, it really is but we’re here to tell you that every ball was scorched and we seriously mean scorched. The problem was they were hit right at people. For the Iowa Cubs, Ortiz allowed 115 hits (.292 BAA) in 99 innings and 12 of those hits went yard. His ERA in the minors this year was 4.45. He was also was in the minors from ’05 to ’07 and he posted ERA’s of 5.46, 5.57 and 5.45 respectively in those three years. Ortiz is 38 years old and he’s a fill in until the Cubs get some healthy bodies back. He was extremely lucky in his season debut, period. The Pirates have been a resilient and strong bounce back club all season long. They’ll get plenty of opportunities to score today in front of what should be another packed house. Paul Maholm has outstanding numbers the first and second time he goes through lineups. Things fall apart for him late in games so if he can find a solution for his late game troubles, his stock will rise fast. Maholm has a strong groundball profile and at PNC Park this year his ERA is 2.02. Laying 1½-runs at home or anywhere is risky and that’s why the price is so high. However, against Ortiz, it’s worth a bet because the Pirates should score five runs or more today. Play: Pittsburgh –1½ +162 (Risking 2 units).
BOSTON –1½ +125 over Baltimore
Battle of minor league call-ups here and a big edge goes to Kyle Weiland of the Red Sox. At Pawtucket this year, Weiland allowed 69 hits in 93 IP for a BAA of .206. He also struck out 99 while walking 37. Weiland has seen his stock rise in '11 thanks to his improved control and consistency in his curveball. He is a tall and lean pitcher with a heavy 88-94 mph fastball that exhibits above average movement and sink. He has added a cutter to his repertoire, which gives hitters another look. Weiland locates his fastball with precision and he can drop in an impressive curveball to register strikeouts. A solid-average change-up rounds out his arsenal and he holds his velocity deep into games. The kid is major-league ready. Mitch Atkins made his season debut in Texas of all places and he allowed one run in six frames. WHAT??!! Don’t get too excited because a repeat performance is unlikely. In need of a spot starter, the Orioles recalled the 25-year-old from Triple-A. Atkins has some Major League time to his credit - 12 IP with the Cubs between '09 and '10 - but he's spent most of the past four seasons in Triple-A. He was originally drafted by Chicago before signing a minor league contract with Baltimore in November '10. Atkins is large and durable. He's able to repeat his high 3/4 delivery consistently, but his fringy stuff doesn't project to anything more than average at the big league level. With an 88-92 mph fastball, cutter, curveball, and changeup, he can mix his pitches effectively, though none are considered out pitches. While he may not walk many batters, Atkins doesn't have polished command or location of his fastball. He is prone to giving up HR’s, as he is a flyball pitcher. He has a career 4.21 ERA in the minors. The Orioles have been outscored 24-7 in the first three games of this series and the onslaught is likely to continue here. Play: Boston –1½ +125 (Risking 2 units).
See ya after the all-star break!
