Yesterday 0 0 0 0.00 Units
Last 30 Days 34 40 1 -1.20 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 125 150 2 -13.92 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Cleveland –107 over BALTIMORE
Everything points to a win by the Indians. Baltimore lost seven in a row before the break and is just 1-12 in its last 13 games. The Orioles' primary woes have been on the mound, where O’s pitchers have been banged around to the tune of a 7.50 ERA since June 25. Sub-30% hit rates have resulted in sub-4 ERAs in three recent seasons for Jeremy Guthrie but his xERA has always been well above 4 and it was well above five in ’09. Guthrie is a fly-ball pitcher with good control but history is skeptical and at the age of 32 there are no favorable signs. He’s good for 200+ innings and he’ll win some games but he’ll never stand out and he’s beatable. Justin Masterson has been good on the road this year (2.36 ERA), good against BAL (7 IP, 4H, 1R) and good as of late (0.53 ERA in last 17 IP). In 81 career plate appearances against the Indians right-hander, current Orioles hitters are batting just .173/.295/.272 (.566) with a 16% strikeout rate. With the Tribe having a nice edge everywhere, we’ll gladly lay the small price. Play: Cleveland -107 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Milwaukee +125 over COLORADO
Here’s the problem with Ubaldo Jiminez: he throws too many pitches per batter and per inning and ultimately gets burned out early in games. He recently threw 117 pitches in five innings against the Braves, 119 pitches in 7 IP against the Yanks, 103 pitches in 5.1 innings against the Dodgers, 104 pitches in 7 innings against the Padres and the list goes on and on and on. Jiminez has just four wins in 17 starts and he’s nibbling. His skills are good and he’s a solid pitcher but he’s trying to strike out every batter and again, he’s throwing way too many pitches to do it. Furthermore, Jiminez is 1-5 at Coors with an ERA of 6.24 so things get much worse for him when he’s home. The Crew get Ryan Braun back and that’s big. Yovani Gallardo is coming on big time. He’s had some shaky outings but they were due to an extremely high 37% hit rate and while some pitchers give up lots of hits, Gallardo’s history and skills say he should not. His skills remain electric. He has 104 k’s and 44 walks in 117 innings. He has a high groundball rate and his GB/LD/FB profile over the past 31 days is also electric at 52%/14%/34%. The Brewers are too good to keep losing on the road at the same pace that they did in the first half and that awful road record has resulted in us getting a pretty sweet tag with Gallardo going against a team that has been average all season. Play: Milwaukee +125 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 34 40 1 -1.20 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 125 150 2 -13.92 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Cleveland –107 over BALTIMORE
Everything points to a win by the Indians. Baltimore lost seven in a row before the break and is just 1-12 in its last 13 games. The Orioles' primary woes have been on the mound, where O’s pitchers have been banged around to the tune of a 7.50 ERA since June 25. Sub-30% hit rates have resulted in sub-4 ERAs in three recent seasons for Jeremy Guthrie but his xERA has always been well above 4 and it was well above five in ’09. Guthrie is a fly-ball pitcher with good control but history is skeptical and at the age of 32 there are no favorable signs. He’s good for 200+ innings and he’ll win some games but he’ll never stand out and he’s beatable. Justin Masterson has been good on the road this year (2.36 ERA), good against BAL (7 IP, 4H, 1R) and good as of late (0.53 ERA in last 17 IP). In 81 career plate appearances against the Indians right-hander, current Orioles hitters are batting just .173/.295/.272 (.566) with a 16% strikeout rate. With the Tribe having a nice edge everywhere, we’ll gladly lay the small price. Play: Cleveland -107 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Milwaukee +125 over COLORADO
Here’s the problem with Ubaldo Jiminez: he throws too many pitches per batter and per inning and ultimately gets burned out early in games. He recently threw 117 pitches in five innings against the Braves, 119 pitches in 7 IP against the Yanks, 103 pitches in 5.1 innings against the Dodgers, 104 pitches in 7 innings against the Padres and the list goes on and on and on. Jiminez has just four wins in 17 starts and he’s nibbling. His skills are good and he’s a solid pitcher but he’s trying to strike out every batter and again, he’s throwing way too many pitches to do it. Furthermore, Jiminez is 1-5 at Coors with an ERA of 6.24 so things get much worse for him when he’s home. The Crew get Ryan Braun back and that’s big. Yovani Gallardo is coming on big time. He’s had some shaky outings but they were due to an extremely high 37% hit rate and while some pitchers give up lots of hits, Gallardo’s history and skills say he should not. His skills remain electric. He has 104 k’s and 44 walks in 117 innings. He has a high groundball rate and his GB/LD/FB profile over the past 31 days is also electric at 52%/14%/34%. The Brewers are too good to keep losing on the road at the same pace that they did in the first half and that awful road record has resulted in us getting a pretty sweet tag with Gallardo going against a team that has been average all season. Play: Milwaukee +125 (Risking 2 units).
