Canadian bacon: CFL Week 4 betting preview and picks

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Winnipeg Blue Bombers Entertain Calgary Stampeders

Kick off the third week of CFL betting action with another great tussle on the gridiron at Canad Inns Stadium. The surprising Winnipeg Blue Bombers will look to keep their undefeated record intact on Thursday, July 14 when they take on the Calgary Stampeders.

This midweek kickoff is slated for 5:00 p.m. (PT), and live television coverage can be found on TSN.

This is the second straight road test for the Stamps, who just barely survived last week with a 34-32 win at Empire Field against the BC Lions. Head coach John Hufnagel had to be very, very frustrated with his offense in the first half against the Leos, as Calgary only accounted for one major, and that came just 19 ticks before intermission.

It marked the second straight week in which the Stampeders have really gotten off to a slow start. In fact, in the first quarter this season, they only have a grand total of four points scored, and in the first half, they only have a total of 12.

Needless to say, for a team that ranked No. 1 in the league offensively a season ago, this just isn't going to cut it.

The good news is that the points have found their way onto the scoreboard late in both of the first two games of the year for Calgary. It has accounted for a shade under 400 yards of offense per game this season, No. 3 in the league, and a scoring average of 27.5 PPG is a healthy figure.

Henry Burris really needs to do a better job of protecting the pigskin, though. He already has four picks and a grand total of five turnovers for the year, and that just won't get the job done. Calgary is already a minus two this year in the turnover department, and that was a category that it really excelled at last season.

Meanwhile, Winnipeg has really been a treat for CFL bettors over the course of the first two weeks of the season. Despite being the worst team in the CFL last year, the Blue Bombers have come out of the blocks in 2011 with guns blazing, pulling upsets over both the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and the Toronto Argonauts.

The key has been a stifling defense. The Blue Bombers rank No. 2 in the league in total defense at 327.0 YPG allowed, and No. 1 in scoring defense at 16.0 PPG allowed.

The only question is whether the league's worst rated offense is going to be able to get anything going against Calgary. Buck Pierce hasn't looked sharp under center this season, accounting for just 316 passing yards, and the offense only has two majors to its name on the campaign.

There is a ton of good news here for Winnipeg, though. The Blue Bombers have gone a stellar 5-1-1 ATS over the last seven duels between these teams. The home team had also won nine straight before Calgary came here to Canad Inns Stadium a season ago and stole a 35-32 victory.

Still, that was only good for a push for the Stamps, who were three point favorites on the day. They haven't covered a spread in Winnipeg since 2005, going 0-4-1 ATS since that point.

The Blue Bombers still aren't really getting the respect of the oddsmakers, as they are three point underdogs on Thursday night. The 'total' opened up at 52 at The Greek on Monday.
 

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Around the Horn - Thursday

July 13, 2011




NATIONAL LEAGUE


Florida at Chicago - 8:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Sanchez (6-2, 3.58 ERA) 7-2 L9 0-6 L6 away Game 1's
Garza (4-7, 4.26 ERA) 3-7 L10 6-0 L6 on Thursdays




Milwaukee at Colorado - 8:40 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Gallardo (10-5, 3.76 ERA) 4-1 L5 1-5 L6 on Thursdays
Jimenez (4-8, 4.14 ERA) 2-6 L8 4-1 L5 home Game 1's




San Francisco at San Diego - 10:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Bumgarner (4-9, 3.87 ERA) 4-1 L5 5-2 L7 away Game 1's
Harang (7-2, 3.45 ERA) 2-6 L8 UNDER 8-2 L10 home off loss




AMERICAN LEAGUE


Cleveland at Baltimore - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Masterson (7-6, 2.64 ERA) 2-4 L6 2-6 L8 away Game 1's
Guthrie (3-12, 4.18 ERA) 0-7 L7 OVER 5-2 L7 on Thursdays




N.Y. Yankees at Toronto - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Colon (6-4, 3.20 ERA) 10-4 L14 8-3 away vs LHP
Reyes (4-7, 4.57 ERA) 5-3 L8 2-9 L11 home vs RHP





Kansas City at Minnesota - 8:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Chen (5-2, 3.26 ERA) 4-6 L10 0-8 L8 away vs LHP
Liriano (5-7, 5.06 ERA) 7-3 L10 6-2 L8 home vs LHP





Texas at Seattle - 10:10 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Holland (7-4, 4.68 ERA) 7-0 L7 4-10 away vs LHP
Vargas (6-6, 3.49 ERA) 0-5 L5 3-7 home vs LHP
 

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Diamond Trends - Thursday

July 14, 2011


SU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Brewers are 0-11 since September 01, 2010 as a dog when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter’s last start for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Cubs are 0-8-1 OU since April 10, 2010 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start after a loss for a net profit of $800 when playing the under.


STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:


The Brewers are 0-11 since October 01, 2008 when Yovani Gallardo starts as a dog when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.


MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:


The Yankees are 3-13 since April 25th 2010 on the road when they are off a win in which they allowed at most one walk and at most one home run.


TODAY’S TRENDS:


The Giants are 7-0 since May 28, 2010 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $755.

The Rangers are 0-6 since August 01, 2010 as a road favorite after scoring 3 runs or less and winning for a net profit of $850 when playing against.

The Yankees are 6-0 since April 20, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600.
 

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MLB First-Half Awards

July 11, 2011


Best Team: After starting the season 2-10 and having everyone in Red Sox nation a little nervous, the Sox have gone 53-25 thanks to the consistent hitting of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Although the Phillies have the best record, Boston get the nod because of their bats.

Worst team: The Houston Astros (30-62) have the worst record in baseball validating that their starting pitching, bullpen and lineup are also MLB's worst. While we should expect to see teams like the Twins, Royals and Cubs all play better in the second-half, there has been no signs that Houston will regain a pulse. Bettors who took UNDER 72 wins on the season at the Las Vegas Hilton should mathematically being able to cash pretty soon.

Biggest Surprise: The Pittsburgh Pirates get the nod here even though the Indians have actually been in first-place this season. We just feel the Bucs were much more of a surprise. Before the season started they had odds of 300-to-1 to win the World Series and had the lowest posted total of 67.5 wins, just below the Royals (68).

Biggest Disappointment: Although the White Sox don’t have that bad of a record (44-48), their collective disappointments from players like Adam Dunn (.160), Alex Rios (.213) and their bullpen have kept them from coming close to their potential. Not everyone had the White Sox to win the American League Central, but they were supposed to be competing. According to Hilton odds, the White Sox had a season win total of 85 wins.

Most Surprising Player: Since the Pirates already made it as biggest surprise, we’ll take Joel Hanrahan and Kevin Correia out of the running and go with a player somewhere else that has unexpectedly taken his team to another level with his play. Cleveland shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera (.293, 14 HRs, 51 RBIs) has already set a career high in home runs, but more importantly, he’s carried his team all season on his back. Depending on how the Indians finish, he’s a player that could steal an MVP away from the bigger stat players in the same fashion Terry Pendleton and Barry Larkin did when they won in the past.

Most Disappointing Player: The aforementioned pair from Chicago in Dunn and Rios are major contributors to the White Sox team situation and could each be co-winners, but Dan Uggla (.160 Avg.) of the Braves has to be the one player that stands out the most. His lack of production is less noticeable because his team is doing so well with everyone else, but that .185 batting average with 366 plate appearances is something even Mario Mendoza’s career average of .215 laughs at.

Fortunately for the Braves, Uggla at least has some power numbers with 14 home runs. Because he has stayed so far under the radar, he could have a great second-half and make some big hits down the stretch to get the Braves in the playoffs. His confidence shouldn’t be as shattered as the likes of Dunn who many blame for the Sox woes.

Best Player: Jose Bautista has shown everyone that the former journeyman’s 54 home runs in 2010 were no fluke as he has elevated his game even further this season. The 31 bombs he’s hit already this year are amazing considering the Hilton posted a total of 27.5 for the entire year, but what is most impressive is his batting average. A .260 hitter last season, Bautista has raised that number .74 points to .334.

Best Pitcher: Roy Halladay (11-3, 2.45 ERA) doesn’t have the most wins, strike outs or lowest ERA in baseball, but what he does have is most team wins that has helped the Phillies to the best record. The Phillies are 16-3 with him on the mound and they haven’t lost a game he has started since May 15.

Manager of the Year: The job that Clint Hurdle has done in Pittsburgh has been amazing. He’s got his team one game out of first-place at the All-Star break, their best season since 1992. He’s taken a bunch of cast-offs and young players within their system and turned them into the best story of the season.

Best Days of the Week: It’s no surprise that the two best teams have one of the days locked up where they are almost a guarantee to win. The Red Sox are 13-2 on Sunday’s while the Phillies are 13-2 on Wednesday’s.

Worst Days of the Week: The Astros are bad every day, but they really lower their standards on Friday’s going 3-12. The Cubs getaway from focusing on getaway Sunday’s as they are 2-12 through the first half.

Biggest Injury Impact: Buster Posey getting taken out at the plate cost him his season and will hurt the Giants down the stretch, but they haven’t been as affected as most thought and still remain in first-place.

Josh Johnson’s shoulder issues that cost the Marlins his services on May 17 has been the most damaging injury. At the time of his injury the Marlins were only one game back. They were considered contenders to make a run at the Phillies, but now they are 14 games back and in last place.

Most Exciting Play of the Year: Derek Jeter’s 3,000th hit, a home run, to become the first Yankee to ever reach the milestone was an amazing moment. Like the Yankees or not, that moment had a historical appeal because of how great the franchise is. Not only did Jeter hit a home run, something only Wade Boggs did at 3,000, but he went 5-for-5 with the game winning hit.

Come Back Kids: The Tampa Bay Rays always feel they are in the game and never give up. This season they have come back to win an MLB high five games when trailing heading into the ninth inning. They also are one of only six teams to have won every game this season when going into the ninth leading.

Road Warrior: The Pirates' Kevin Correia started 11 games on the road and got a decision in each as he went 9-2 with 2.71 ERA. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, he hasn’t been nearly as good at home going 2-5 with a 5.94 ERA. Nevertheless, after almost everyone else couldn’t make the All-Star game, Correia and his 11 wins were finally asked to fill in and he accepted.

Left Out: Everyone thinks that Texas manager Ron Washington is justified for not choosing CC Sabathia to be part of the AL All-Star squad because he pitched on Sunday. The would-be selection is an honor that CC deserved for his play. You can’t tell me there are 15 better pitchers in the AL than Sabathia.

We have somehow gotten into the assumption that Sabathia’s body of work is just an expectant because he does the same thing year in and year out without labeling it extraordinary. Washington isn’t alone with his thoughts on CC as evident by baseball writers giving a 13-game winner the Cy Young award over him last year even though he won 21 games.

Despite starting on Sunday themselves, Matt Cain and Cole Hamels will still have the honor of being an All-Star attached to the record books while Sabathia, with his 13 wins and two shutouts watches the game from home.

I’m the last to show any sympathy for a Yankee player, but this was flat out wrong to the point that it almost looks as if Washington has a beef with Sabathia.

Best home plate umpire for OVER’s: Tim McClellan’s has a 13-3-2 OVER record when he’s behind the plate.

Best Home plate umpire for UNDER’s: Alan Porter has a 12-3 UNDER record when he calls games.

Best Money Line Team: Pirates +1,376

Worst Money Line Team: Astros -2,638

Pitching oddities: The Oakland A’s are 9-22 on the road against right-handed pitchers, but are 16-16 at home against them. The Orioles go a step further by being 4-14 on the road against RHP, but have a 12-9 home record against them. The Giants stand alone this season in their efforts against lefties going 18-6. Detroit is a close second with an amazing 9-2 record vs. LHP’s in day games and 17-11 overall.

LV Hilton Phillie Aces Prop: Before the season started the Hilton were offering a prop on the combined win total from the four Phillies starters: Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. They posted a number of 59.5 and it immediately got hammered OVER, but the Hilton crew opted to just move the money-line and not move the total. The bettors that thought the number to be low were all thinking that Lee and Halladay were good for 20 wins each and between Hamels and Oswalt, the other 20 wins would come somewhere.

The Hilton offered the number where they did just because of injury possibilities that have become so common in today's game. Through the All-Star break -- not the halfway point -- the quartet of pitchers have combined for 35 wins with Oswalt finding himself on the disabled list twice. The other three pitchers have all put up Cy Young type of numbers and have played their absolute best, or better than expected, but they'll have to continue at that rate to make the OVER 59.5 bet a winning bet.

My guess is that the decision on the prop will come down to their final starts of the season with Oswalt being the major wild card. It would be hard to believe that the big three would be able to continue their torrid pace through the final months, especially the likes of Hamels and Lee.
 

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CFL
Dunkel



Calgary at Winnipeg
The Stampeders look to take advantage of a Winnipeg team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games in Week 3. Calgary is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-3). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

THURSDAY, JULY 14

Game 491-492: Calgary at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 113.809; Winnipeg 107.895
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 6; 48
Vegas Line: Calgary by 3; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-3); Under


FRIDAY, JULY 15

Game 493-494: Toronto at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 110.967; Montreal 119.386
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 8 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Montreal by 10 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+10 1/2); Over


SATURDAY, JULY 16

Game 495-496: Saskatchewan at Hamilton (4:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 110.504; Hamilton 110.244
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 2 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+2 1/2); Under

Game 497-498: BC at Edmonton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 111.976; Edmonton 117.710
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 5 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 2 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-2 1/2); Over
 

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CFL
Long Sheet


Week 3

Thursday, July 14


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CALGARY (1 - 1) at WINNIPEG (2 - 0) - 7/14/2011, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996.
CALGARY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 3-1 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 3-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, July 15

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TORONTO (1 - 1) at MONTREAL (2 - 0) - 7/15/2011, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 6-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 6-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, July 16

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SASKATCHEWAN (0 - 2) at HAMILTON (0 - 2) - 7/16/2011, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAMILTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 99-59 ATS (+34.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 135-104 ATS (+20.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BRITISH COLUMBIA (0 - 2) at EDMONTON (2 - 0) - 7/16/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 71-47 ATS (+19.3 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 50-28 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games off a division game since 1996.
EDMONTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-3 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 3-3 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CFL


Week 3


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Trend Report
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Thursday, July 14

8:00 PM
CALGARY vs. WINNIPEG
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 5 games on the road
Winnipeg is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary
Winnipeg is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary


Friday, July 15

7:30 PM
TORONTO vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Montreal
Toronto is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Montreal
Montreal is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto


Saturday, July 16

4:00 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. HAMILTON
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Saskatchewan's last 12 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Saskatchewan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Hamilton's last 12 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan

7:00 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games on the road
British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games


CFL


Week 3


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Canadian bacon: CFL Week 3 betting preview and picks
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Thursday, July 14

Calgary Stampeders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+3, 52.5)


The Blue Bombers are off to a great start with two wins in their first two games of the season. That early success is mainly because of the tenure of QB Buck Pierce, who completed almost 62 percent of his passes in the win over the Argos last week.

The Stampeders have won three of their last four games against the Blue Bombers, including two extremely close contests last year. But in Winnipeg, where the Bombers are always tough, Calgary has only one win in their last four visits. Also keep in mind that the Stampeders have been playing way below their potential in the first two games of the season, losing to the Argos before winning a very close one over the Lions last week.

After suffering a concussion in the first game against Toronto, LB Malik Johnson should return to action and that will bring more balance to the Stamps defense. Winnipeg’s defense only conceded 16 points to opposing teams in each of its first two games but it will find it harder to slow down the powerful Calgary offense led by Henry Burris.

It is difficult not to rally with the Stampeders on this one, although, it could easily be a game decided in the last few seconds of play.

Pick: Stampeders


Friday, July 15

Toronto Argonauts at Montreal Alouettes (-10.5, 53.5)


Anthony Calvillo is about to become the all-time leader for touchdown passes in the CFL, which will likely occur at home this week against the Argos. Last week in Regina, he tied Damon Allen and connected for five scores in a win over Saskatchewan.

The Alouettes are 2-0 and their offense is already in top gear. The defense, despite a few letdowns in the third quarter, is capable of stopping its opponents when it mattered, in bend-but-don’t-break fashion. Special teams, however, are still a problem for the Als and that could give room for the explosive Chad Owens to make his presence felt.

Nonetheless, we can’t see how the Argos, led by the erratic Cleo Lemon, can really manage to slow down Montreal - especially not at Percival-Molson Stadium.

As usual, the Toronto defense will hold on in the first half before surrendering out of exhaustion in the last 30 minutes. Calvillo has way too many tools available to be shut down.

Pick: Alouettes



Saturday, July 16

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-2.5, 51.5)


Here are two teams that have potential but found ways to lose their first two games of 2011. In the case of the Riders, both losses were inflicted in front of their diehard fans at Mosaic Field in Regina.

Of course, these Roughriders lost a few key players (namely Andy Fantusz) but have had the Tiger-Cats’ number in recent history, winning with comfortable margins in both of their showdowns last year. In fact, Saskatchewan has emerged the winner in nine of its last 10 meetings with Hamilton.

Bettors can expect a high-scoring game since the over has paid in nine of the last 12 contests between these squads. The over 51.5 is probably the safest bet for this one, even if Saskatchewan will probably leave Hamilton with its first win of the year.

Pick: Saskatchewan


B.C. Lions at Edmonton Eskimos (-2.5, 54)


The Eskimos won their first two games of the season, despite having 21 new players in their 42-man roster. Last year, Edmonton beat B.C. in two of their three matchups.

The injury to DB Stanley Franks last week will weaken the Lions defense. Edmonton RB Fred Stamps has been really hot, with 212 rushing yards on only 10 carries. The Eskimos defense gave up just 10 points against the Tiger-Cats last week. The previous week, it forced four turnovers in a win over the Riders in Regina.

Like the Stampeders, the Lions lost their first two games of the year and are already in a must-win situation. Fortunately for Wally Buono’s men, the Eskimos are depleted by injuries on both offense and defense. Running back Arkee Whitlock is out this week and so are LB Rod Davis and DT Etienne Legare.

Pick: Lions
 

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CFLThursday, July 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Calgary - 8:00 PM ET Winnipeg +3 500

Winnipeg - Under 52.5 500
 

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Friday, July 15
Game Score Status Pick Amount

Toronto - 7:30 PM ET Montreal -10.5 500
Montreal - Over 53 500
 

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Montreal Favored By 10 At Toronto Argonauts

The Toronto Argonauts (1-1) and Montreal Alouettes (2-0) face off in Week 3 of the Canadian Football League season and Friday’s game will be televised on TSN at 4:30 p.m. (PST).

Toronto lost its first game of 2011 by dropping a 22-16 contest to the Winnipeg Bombers last Friday. The Argonauts were 2-0-0 in the preseason and won their season opener in Calgary on July 1.

The Argos will be playing three straight road games for the first time in club history and have moved to a double-digit underdog for the first time this season with Montreal favored by 10 and Friday's total at 53. Toronto is 1-1 ATS thus far in 2011 and will be getting points for a third consecutive week.

Head coach Jim Barker’s career record is now an even 19-19 SU, including wins in four of his last five games away from home. It’s hard to imagine a straight-up victory for the underdogs in this contest, especially due to running back Cory Boyd expected to miss at least two weeks with a knee injury. He has become an instrumental part of the offense and has recorded seven career 100-yard efforts in just 17 games.

Montreal quarterback Anthony Calvillo currently leads the CFL with 731 passing yards and has been instrumental in leading the team to 69 combined points in the first two weeks. The 39-year-old passer also tied Damon Allen’s league record of 394 touchdown passes by throwing for five scores in a 39-25 win over Saskatchewan last Saturday.

Calvillo’s latest masterpiece was honored by the league in naming him the CFL’s Offensive Player of the Week. It marked the second consecutive week that an Alouettes’ player earned that distinction, as receiver Jamel Richardson grabbed nine balls for 162 yards in Week 1's 30-26 home triumph against the BC Lions.

Due to the explosive numbers above from Montreal’s offense, total players will likely expect a shootout, but it must be stated that the ‘under’ is 10-2 in the Argonauts last 12 games overall. It’s important to point out that the two games that went ‘over’ in that span came against the Alouettes.

Sometimes in the game of sports handicapping, picking the winner will often suffice in covering the spread, which is certainly the case in this series. In the last 10 meetings, the SU winner has gone on to cover the spread each time. Montreal is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings as host, but dropped a 30-4 contest at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium on November 7, 2010.

The Alouettes gained revenge from that disappointing effort with a 48-17 blowout win just two weeks later.

Weather forecasts suggest game-time highs in the low-70s and light winds out of the southwest.
 

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CFL Betting Notes - Week 3

July 13, 2011


The 2011 CFL regular season is off to a bit of a surprising start given that the two teams that did not make the playoffs last season are a combined 4-0 through the first two weeks of the year. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers, who won a total of four games last year, beat Toronto 22-16 on Friday night as one-point home favorites and the Edmonton Eskimos knocked off the Hamilton Tiger-Cats 28-10 as 1 ½- point home favorites on Saturday. In other action, Calgary outlasted British Columbia 34-32 as a 2 1/2-point road underdog on Friday, while Montreal rolled over Saskatchewan 39-25 as a three-point road favorite on Saturday.

The following is brief preview of this week’s CFL games along with the opening point-spread and ‘over/under’ lines as provided by BetOnline.com.

Thursday, July 14

Calgary Stampeders (-3) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers Over/Under: 52.5

Calgary has won three of the last four meetings in this series straight up, but Winnipeg is 3-0-1 against the spread over this span. Last season, the Stampeders won 23-20 in late July as a 6 1/2-point home favorite in a game that stayed ‘under’ the 55-point total. Later in the season, they squeaked out another tight win with a 35-32 victory as a three-point road favorite. The total went ‘over’ easily jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 53.

Calgary has yet to cover the spread in its last five trips to Winnipeg and last year’s victory at Canad Inns Stadium was its first SU win there in its last five tries. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of the last six games in this series. Blue Bomber quarterback Buck Pierce redeemed himself last week with a 61.7 completion rate after going just 12-for-26 in Week 1.

Friday, July 15

Toronto Argonauts at Montreal Alouettes (-10) Over/Under: 53

These two longtime rivals split their four regular season games last season both SU and ATS, with each winning once on the road and once at home. The last time they faced one another was in the CFL Division Finals with the Alouettes rolling to a 48-17 victory as 10 ½-point home favorites. The total went ‘over’ in three of the five games last year.

The Argonauts are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Montreal and just 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the last nine games between the pair. Alouette quarterback Anthony Calvillo had another strong outing last week; completing 29-of-43 attempts for 419 yards and five touchdowns. He is now tied with Damon Allen as the all-time CFL leader in touchdown passes with 394.

Saturday, July 16

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Hamilton Tiger Cats (-2.5) Over/Under: 51.5

Saskatchewan swept the two-game series with Hamilton last season. It won 37-24 as an eight-point home favorite in Week 5 and then hammered out a 32-25 victory in Week 13 as a 1 1/2-point road underdog. The total went ‘over’ in both affairs.

The Roughriders have pretty much owned this series over the past few seasons with a 9-1 SU record in the last 10 meetings and an 8-2 mark ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of the last 12 meetings in Hamilton. Both teams come into this game with a number of players on the injured list including WR Rob Bagg for Saskatchewan and WR Aaron Kelly for the Tiger Cats.

British Columbia Lions at Edmonton Eskimos (2.5) Over/Under: 54.5

BC split the two games in Edmonton last season with a 25-10 victory as a four-point road underdog on opening day and a 28-25 loss in Week 5 as a two-point road dog. The Eskimos won the rubber match in mid-October with a 31-28 overtime victory as a six-point road underdog.

The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Commonwealth Stadium. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the last six meetings there and in six of the last seven games overall. BC defensive back Stanley Franks was lost for the season after dislocating his knee in the loss to Calgary. Edmonton slotback Fred Stamps has rushed for 212 yards so far on just 10 carries.
 

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FRIDAY, JULY 15

Game 493-494: Toronto at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 110.967; Montreal 119.386
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 8 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Montreal by 10 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+10 1/2); Over


SATURDAY, JULY 16

Game 495-496: Saskatchewan at Hamilton (4:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 110.504; Hamilton 110.244
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 2 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+2 1/2); Under

Game 497-498: BC at Edmonton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 111.976; Edmonton 117.710
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 5 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 2 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-2 1/2); Over




CFL
Long Sheet


Week 3


Friday, July 15

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TORONTO (1 - 1) at MONTREAL (2 - 0) - 7/15/2011, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 6-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 6-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, July 16

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SASKATCHEWAN (0 - 2) at HAMILTON (0 - 2) - 7/16/2011, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAMILTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 99-59 ATS (+34.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 135-104 ATS (+20.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BRITISH COLUMBIA (0 - 2) at EDMONTON (2 - 0) - 7/16/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 71-47 ATS (+19.3 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 50-28 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games off a division game since 1996.
EDMONTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-3 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 3-3 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL


Week 3


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Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, July 15

7:30 PM
TORONTO vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Montreal
Toronto is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Montreal
Montreal is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto


Saturday, July 16

4:00 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. HAMILTON
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Saskatchewan's last 12 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Saskatchewan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Hamilton's last 12 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan

7:00 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games on the road
British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games


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CFL


Week 3


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Canadian bacon: CFL Week 3 betting preview and picks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, July 15

Toronto Argonauts at Montreal Alouettes (-10.5, 53.5)


Anthony Calvillo is about to become the all-time leader for touchdown passes in the CFL, which will likely occur at home this week against the Argos. Last week in Regina, he tied Damon Allen and connected for five scores in a win over Saskatchewan.

The Alouettes are 2-0 and their offense is already in top gear. The defense, despite a few letdowns in the third quarter, is capable of stopping its opponents when it mattered, in bend-but-don’t-break fashion. Special teams, however, are still a problem for the Als and that could give room for the explosive Chad Owens to make his presence felt.

Nonetheless, we can’t see how the Argos, led by the erratic Cleo Lemon, can really manage to slow down Montreal - especially not at Percival-Molson Stadium.

As usual, the Toronto defense will hold on in the first half before surrendering out of exhaustion in the last 30 minutes. Calvillo has way too many tools available to be shut down.

Pick: Alouettes



Saturday, July 16

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-2.5, 51.5)


Here are two teams that have potential but found ways to lose their first two games of 2011. In the case of the Riders, both losses were inflicted in front of their diehard fans at Mosaic Field in Regina.

Of course, these Roughriders lost a few key players (namely Andy Fantusz) but have had the Tiger-Cats’ number in recent history, winning with comfortable margins in both of their showdowns last year. In fact, Saskatchewan has emerged the winner in nine of its last 10 meetings with Hamilton.

Bettors can expect a high-scoring game since the over has paid in nine of the last 12 contests between these squads. The over 51.5 is probably the safest bet for this one, even if Saskatchewan will probably leave Hamilton with its first win of the year.

Pick: Saskatchewan


B.C. Lions at Edmonton Eskimos (-2.5, 54)


The Eskimos won their first two games of the season, despite having 21 new players in their 42-man roster. Last year, Edmonton beat B.C. in two of their three matchups.

The injury to DB Stanley Franks last week will weaken the Lions defense. Edmonton RB Fred Stamps has been really hot, with 212 rushing yards on only 10 carries. The Eskimos defense gave up just 10 points against the Tiger-Cats last week. The previous week, it forced four turnovers in a win over the Riders in Regina.

Like the Stampeders, the Lions lost their first two games of the year and are already in a must-win situation. Fortunately for Wally Buono’s men, the Eskimos are depleted by injuries on both offense and defense. Running back Arkee Whitlock is out this week and so are LB Rod Davis and DT Etienne Legare.

Pick: Lions

 

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SATURDAY, JULY 16

Game 495-496: Saskatchewan at Hamilton (4:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 110.504; Hamilton 110.244
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 2 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+2 1/2); Under

Game 497-498: BC at Edmonton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 111.976; Edmonton 117.710
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 5 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 2 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-2 1/2); Over




CFL
Long Sheet


Week 3


Saturday, July 16

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SASKATCHEWAN (0 - 2) at HAMILTON (0 - 2) - 7/16/2011, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAMILTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 99-59 ATS (+34.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 135-104 ATS (+20.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BRITISH COLUMBIA (0 - 2) at EDMONTON (2 - 0) - 7/16/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 71-47 ATS (+19.3 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 50-28 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games off a division game since 1996.
EDMONTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-3 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 3-3 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




CFL


Week 3


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, July 16

4:00 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. HAMILTON
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Saskatchewan's last 12 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Saskatchewan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Hamilton's last 12 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan

7:00 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games on the road
British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




CFL


Week 3


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Canadian bacon: CFL Week 3 betting preview and picks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, July 16

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-2.5, 51.5)


Here are two teams that have potential but found ways to lose their first two games of 2011. In the case of the Riders, both losses were inflicted in front of their diehard fans at Mosaic Field in Regina.

Of course, these Roughriders lost a few key players (namely Andy Fantusz) but have had the Tiger-Cats’ number in recent history, winning with comfortable margins in both of their showdowns last year. In fact, Saskatchewan has emerged the winner in nine of its last 10 meetings with Hamilton.

Bettors can expect a high-scoring game since the over has paid in nine of the last 12 contests between these squads. The over 51.5 is probably the safest bet for this one, even if Saskatchewan will probably leave Hamilton with its first win of the year.

Pick: Saskatchewan


B.C. Lions at Edmonton Eskimos (-2.5, 54)


The Eskimos won their first two games of the season, despite having 21 new players in their 42-man roster. Last year, Edmonton beat B.C. in two of their three matchups.

The injury to DB Stanley Franks last week will weaken the Lions defense. Edmonton RB Fred Stamps has been really hot, with 212 rushing yards on only 10 carries. The Eskimos defense gave up just 10 points against the Tiger-Cats last week. The previous week, it forced four turnovers in a win over the Riders in Regina.

Like the Stampeders, the Lions lost their first two games of the year and are already in a must-win situation. Fortunately for Wally Buono’s men, the Eskimos are depleted by injuries on both offense and defense. Running back Arkee Whitlock is out this week and so are LB Rod Davis and DT Etienne Legare.

Pick: Lions

 

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( CFL This week 4 - 0 )

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
07/15/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
07/14/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
07/09/11 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail
07/08/11 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2000 Detail
07/03/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
07/01/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
Totals 12-*6-*0 66.67% +2700


CFL

Saturday, July 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Saskatchewan - 4:00 PM ET Saskatchewan +2 500
Hamilton - Over 51.5 500

BC Lions - 7:00 PM ET Edmonton -2.5 500
Edmonton - Under 54.5 500
 

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