Yesterday 1 1 0 0.00 Units
Last 30 Days 34 40 1 -2.26 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 126 151 2 -13.92 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
CINCINNATI –1½ +142 over St. Louis
St. Louis/CINCINNATI over 8½ +105
The line or more specifically the total in this game flat out dictates the play. What we have here is Jake Westbrook and his 5.34 ERA (6.32 ERA over his last three starts) pitching in an extreme hitter’s park against the NL’s best home offense. The total here is 8½ u-115 and for a game in Cinci and with Westbrook’s starts going over the total in 12 of his 18 starts, including scores like an 11-3 loss to San Diego, an 8-6 loss to Washington, a 7-5 loss to San Fran and a very recent 9-8 loss to these same Reds in St. Louis just before the break, for the oddsmakers to post 8½ in Cinci in a Westbrook pitched game, they would have to figure that the Reds pitcher is going to be sharp because no crystal ball in the world could predict that Westbrook is going to be sharp. Westbrook is going to give up runs, there’s no doubt about that, as he’s walked 40, struck out just 52 in 90 IP and his BAA in June was .358. Meanwhile Johnny Cueto’s ERA is 1.96 and his WHIP is 1.00. He has a BAA of .199 and at Great American his ERA is 2.03 with a BAA of .161. Again, when one reads “between the lines”, and see a total of 8½ u, one absolutely has to figure that most of those runs are going to be scored by the Reds. This is really a great opportunity to “free roll” because if the Cards win this game or cover the 1½ runs, it’s surely going over the total. In other words, if the Reds score four runs the only way we lose both is if the Cards score three and it’s hard to imagine the Reds not scoring at least four. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +142 (Risking 2 units). Play Cincinnati/St. Louis over 8½ +105 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +102 over BALTIMORE
Jake Arietta is the ace of this staff. Need we say more? Arietta has nine wins, which is completely unjust when you consider his 4.90 ERA. There’s even more to consider about Arietta and it’s not good. In 100 innings last year his ERA was 4.66 and he struggled to get lefties out. Also, he tried to rehab a sore elbow instead of having surgery. Does that ever work? He missed his June 27 start because of bone spurs in that elbow and over his last three starts he posted an ERA of 7.53. So, not only is he wounded, he’s not very good either. The Orioles have dropped 13 of their past 14 games and their pen is a mess too. Enter Josh Tomlin. Tomlin is 10-4 with a 3.81 ERA and a 3.15 ERA over his past three. We’re not buying into him either, because he does not miss a lot of bats and he has a fly-ball bias profile. However, he has elite control, (14 BB in 116 frames) and an elite WHIP of 1.02. The Indians are right there in the battle for a playoff spot and they got off to a good start after the break with an 8-4 win last night. Of course they can win again and the small tag adds incentive. Play: Cleveland +102 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +138 over TAMPA BAY
David Price is showing some serious signs of fatigue after throwing 208 innings last season and another 129 this year. He strikes out a lot of hitter’s and that means a high pitch count every game. In fact, it’s rare to see Price throw less than 110 pitches per start and again, it appears to be taking a toll. Price is just 8-7 and his ERA is good at 3.70 but certainly not elite. He’s allowed four runs in back-to-back starts against the Yanks and Twins and he’s been hit pretty well in three of his last six starts. Boston sprinted to the wire, ending the first half by winning six in a row and 9-of-10. The Red Sox have a league-best 28-17 mark in road games, and they’ve best AL East foes at a .700 clip (24-10). In 10 July games, BOS has 17 HR and a .395 OBP. Tampa Bay went into the break on more of a down-note. The Rays went 5-7, averaging just 3.8 RPG, in the dozen games before the All-Star Break. Andrew Miller has never been able to emerge as a starter for a lot of reasons. The primary one is his delivery. He never has been able to repeat his mechanics over long stretches and he walks far too many batters. When he's on, he's an elite groundball artist with upper-rotation raw stuff. At age 25, it's too early to write him off and while we would never lay a tag with him, taking back one is a whole different story. A 3.57 ERA despite all those walks and small sample size tells the tale of that aforementioned raw stuff. Play: Boston +138 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 34 40 1 -2.26 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 126 151 2 -13.92 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
CINCINNATI –1½ +142 over St. Louis
St. Louis/CINCINNATI over 8½ +105
The line or more specifically the total in this game flat out dictates the play. What we have here is Jake Westbrook and his 5.34 ERA (6.32 ERA over his last three starts) pitching in an extreme hitter’s park against the NL’s best home offense. The total here is 8½ u-115 and for a game in Cinci and with Westbrook’s starts going over the total in 12 of his 18 starts, including scores like an 11-3 loss to San Diego, an 8-6 loss to Washington, a 7-5 loss to San Fran and a very recent 9-8 loss to these same Reds in St. Louis just before the break, for the oddsmakers to post 8½ in Cinci in a Westbrook pitched game, they would have to figure that the Reds pitcher is going to be sharp because no crystal ball in the world could predict that Westbrook is going to be sharp. Westbrook is going to give up runs, there’s no doubt about that, as he’s walked 40, struck out just 52 in 90 IP and his BAA in June was .358. Meanwhile Johnny Cueto’s ERA is 1.96 and his WHIP is 1.00. He has a BAA of .199 and at Great American his ERA is 2.03 with a BAA of .161. Again, when one reads “between the lines”, and see a total of 8½ u, one absolutely has to figure that most of those runs are going to be scored by the Reds. This is really a great opportunity to “free roll” because if the Cards win this game or cover the 1½ runs, it’s surely going over the total. In other words, if the Reds score four runs the only way we lose both is if the Cards score three and it’s hard to imagine the Reds not scoring at least four. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +142 (Risking 2 units). Play Cincinnati/St. Louis over 8½ +105 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +102 over BALTIMORE
Jake Arietta is the ace of this staff. Need we say more? Arietta has nine wins, which is completely unjust when you consider his 4.90 ERA. There’s even more to consider about Arietta and it’s not good. In 100 innings last year his ERA was 4.66 and he struggled to get lefties out. Also, he tried to rehab a sore elbow instead of having surgery. Does that ever work? He missed his June 27 start because of bone spurs in that elbow and over his last three starts he posted an ERA of 7.53. So, not only is he wounded, he’s not very good either. The Orioles have dropped 13 of their past 14 games and their pen is a mess too. Enter Josh Tomlin. Tomlin is 10-4 with a 3.81 ERA and a 3.15 ERA over his past three. We’re not buying into him either, because he does not miss a lot of bats and he has a fly-ball bias profile. However, he has elite control, (14 BB in 116 frames) and an elite WHIP of 1.02. The Indians are right there in the battle for a playoff spot and they got off to a good start after the break with an 8-4 win last night. Of course they can win again and the small tag adds incentive. Play: Cleveland +102 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +138 over TAMPA BAY
David Price is showing some serious signs of fatigue after throwing 208 innings last season and another 129 this year. He strikes out a lot of hitter’s and that means a high pitch count every game. In fact, it’s rare to see Price throw less than 110 pitches per start and again, it appears to be taking a toll. Price is just 8-7 and his ERA is good at 3.70 but certainly not elite. He’s allowed four runs in back-to-back starts against the Yanks and Twins and he’s been hit pretty well in three of his last six starts. Boston sprinted to the wire, ending the first half by winning six in a row and 9-of-10. The Red Sox have a league-best 28-17 mark in road games, and they’ve best AL East foes at a .700 clip (24-10). In 10 July games, BOS has 17 HR and a .395 OBP. Tampa Bay went into the break on more of a down-note. The Rays went 5-7, averaging just 3.8 RPG, in the dozen games before the All-Star Break. Andrew Miller has never been able to emerge as a starter for a lot of reasons. The primary one is his delivery. He never has been able to repeat his mechanics over long stretches and he walks far too many batters. When he's on, he's an elite groundball artist with upper-rotation raw stuff. At age 25, it's too early to write him off and while we would never lay a tag with him, taking back one is a whole different story. A 3.57 ERA despite all those walks and small sample size tells the tale of that aforementioned raw stuff. Play: Boston +138 (Risking 2 units).
