MLB Series Outlook: N.Y. Yankees at Toronto
NEW YORK YANKEES (53-35, +6.4 Units)
at TORONTO BLUE JAYS (45-47, -0.4 Units)
Sportsbook.com Series Line: New York -150, Toronto +120
The Yankees kick off their second half of the season by heading north of the border, visiting their division rival Toronto Blue Jays for a four-game series. New York is attempting to climb atop the AL East where it currently sits two wins, though zero losses, behind the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees will play this series without star third baseman Alex Rodriguez who just underwent knee surgery. In addition, the Yankees will be without the “DJ3K” hype that has engulfed the team over the past couple weeks, as Derek Jeter hit his 3,000th hit in dramatic fashion prior to the break, nailing a home run over the left field wall in Yankee Stadium.
Play on NEW YORK to win this series, as the Yankees are always one of the best second half-teams in baseball while the Blue Jays tend to struggle post-All-Star break. The Bronx Bombers always seem to find extra life down the stretch, and there is no better way to start that than by beating on a weaker, divisional opponent.
The FoxSheets provide another reason to back the Pinstripes.
NY YANKEES are 26-12 (68.4%, +11.0 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.8, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 0*).
Pitching Probables for Thursday, July 14 - 7:07 EDT
Thursday line: New York -145, Toronto +135, Total: 9.5
NYY: 8-4 (+2.40 Units) when Bartolo Colon starts
TOR: 8-10 (-1.65 Units) when Jo-Jo Reyes starts
The Yankees picked Colon (6-4, 3.20 ERA) off the scrap heap this winter and it’s been an unquestionable steal. He was hit hard his last time out, yielding five earned runs in 5.2 innings, but has been good overall lately, with four scoreless starts in his past seven outings. This is one game the Blue Jays could get their bats going, however, because they have hit him well in his two games against them this season. In 12.2 innings against the birds from up north he has a 1-1 record with a 5.68 ERA. The Jays tagged him for six runs in six innings on May 23 in New York.
Unlike Colon, Reyes (4-7, 4.57 ERA) is coming off a very good start, in which he did not allow an earned run in 5.2 innings at Cleveland. Still, he always feels like a dangerous play because of his inability to strike batters out at a decent clip. In his past three games he has walked six and fanned only five. In his lone career appearance against the Yankees on May 25 this season, he allowed five runs (2 HR) in three innings.
Pitching Probables for Friday, July 15 - 7:07 EDT
Friday line: TBD
NYY: 8-7 (-1.00 Units) when Freddy Garcia starts
TOR: 9-6 (+2.40 Units) when Brandon Morrow starts
Another pick off the bargain bin, Garcia (7-6, 3.13 ERA) has also been good for the Yankees this year when they’ve needed him to step up. He’s 1-1 against the Blue Jays in two starts, but is on a hot streak, posting a 1.35 ERA over his past three starts, spanning 20 innings. The key for him is keeping the ball in the strike zone, because he doesn’t have the stuff to strike people out (only six strikeouts in those 20 innings), but yielded only one walk in that span. In his career, he has a 5.93 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in 88 innings against Toronto, which has batted .365 the past three times it has faced Garcia.
The former closer Morrow (5-4, 4.60 ERA) is intimidating on the mound with 10.64 K per 9 IP, by far the highest on the Blue Jays staff. He has a 5.19 career ERA against the Yankees, but has still shown the ability to miss their bats with 54 whiffs in 43.1 innings. In many ways, Morrow (young and hard-throwing) is the opposite of Garcia (veteran and crafty), so this should be a fascinating matchup.
Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 16 - 1:07 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
NYY: 15-5 (+7.20 Units) when CC Sabathia starts
TOR: 7-11 (-5.45 Units) when Ricky Romero starts
A true ace, Sabathia (13-4, 2.72 ERA) is in one of those stretches where he just makes a manager’s life easier. He has not allowed an earned run in his past 23.2 innings, accounting for his past three starts. In the last one, he put the team on his back for a 1-0 victory, throwing a four-hit shutout with 9 K versus Tampa Bay. He is tough to play against here, especially with a 10-3 career record (3.19 ERA) against the Blue Jays.
Romero (7-8, 3.09 ERA) has struggled to reach the win column this season even if he has pitched pretty well. Two of his best starts were against the Bombers; he is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two meetings against them this season. Be wary though, because in his career his second-half ERA is nearly a point-and-a-half higher than it is during the first half.
Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 17 - 7:07 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
NYY: 1-3 (-2.70 Units) when Phil Hughes starts
TOR: 6-3 (+4.25 Units) when Carlos Villanueva starts
Hughes (0-2, 10.57 ERA) had his first decent start of the season his last time out, allowing two earned runs in five innings, which was a good sign after his miserable three outings in April before landing on the DL. He hasn’t been able to go deeper than five innings in any of his four starts, and has walked six while only striking out five. But, if he can figure out his curveball, he can return to elite form. Toronto hit him hard last year, tagging him with a 7.29 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in four starts against the Jays.
Villanueva (5-1, 2.99 ERA) has been one of the Blue Jays best starters this season and has the lowest WHIP on their staff at 1.20. If he can keep those hits and walks in check against the Yankees, like he has done against all teams this season, he should be in good shape for a win against the struggling Hughes.