Yesterday 2 2 0 +0.14 Units
Last 30 Days 35 40 1 -0.30 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 128 153 2 -13.78 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Florida +111 over CHICAGO
Carlos Zambrano missed the minimum 15 days and makes his return here in this matinee game. He made just one rehab start, where he pitched four innings and allowed one run with four strikeouts and three walks for Class-A Peoria. Zambrano's control has taken a turn for the worse this season and in six June starts he struck out 22 while walking 18. Zambrano also has a history of imploding in day games. Even when he was a dominating pitcher he always had a bunch of miserable performances in day games. When we look back at his past three years in day games, Zambrano started 29 games and allowed 207 hits and 97 ER in 169.2 innings for a BAA of .304 and an ERA of 5.15. His excessive workload over the years has worn him down and it’s not like he’s pitching for the Phillies. Only two teams in the entire league have fewer wins than the Cubs. The Marlins had won six straight before the break and Javier Vazquez has found something. Vazquez reportedly is pitching more with his lower body now, an approach that might have helped him rejuvenate his skills. In fact, over his last five starts, Vazquez has struck out 19 and walked just three. He’s allowed a total of four earned runs in those five games and zero earned runs in three of those five. It’s also worth noting that two of those five games were in Philadelphia and Texas and that’s where he allowed two earned runs in both games. Over his last five starts, Vazquez is pitching as good as anyone in the league right now and while one game could be considered a fluke, five in a row with a new approach cannot. Play: Florida +111 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland –108 over BALTIMORE
Can someone please explain why Buck Showalter bats Nick Markakis second? Isn’t your #2 hitter the guy that moves runners over, bunts well and usually makes contact? Markakis does all that but he’s also hitting .292, has a .338 average with RISP and he’s a #3, 4, 5 or 6 hitter, not a #2. In any case, how can you argue with a manager that has his team losing nine in a row and 14 of the last 15 games? Losing is highly contagious and with each loss, winning the next day becomes even more difficult. Enter Alfredo Simon who had 17 saves and a 4.93 ERA in 49 IP for the O’s last year. The irony was he lost his closer's job in Aug, which was his best month of the year (121 BPV). 'Twas poetic justice, as he doesn't own skills for closer job or any job for that matter. Simon was sitting in a Dominican Republic jail as a shooting suspect just a few months ago and rejoined the team in late May (guess he was cleared). He’s appeared in just eight games and has posted a WHIP of 1.65 and an ERA of 4.85. His xERA keeps rising and is now at 6.09 over the past month. Simon is a career minor-league, who has spent very limited time at this level and has never been able to stick. He’s 30-years old and has only 94 career IP in the majors. Carlos Carrasco has shown significant monthly skill growth this season. His BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) by month: 32, 70, 99. This growth has come from improved control and a 55%+ GB%. He has a ton more upside than Simon and the Indians as a whole are in a much better state of mind than these plunging Orioles. Play: Cleveland –108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Chicago +142 over DETROIT
If whacking Justin Verlander doesn’t get this offense of the White Sox going, nothing will. That eight-run outburst last night has to carry some momentum with it because Verlander has been as close to untouchable as any pitcher this season. Now the South Side will face Max Scherzer and while Scherzer is 10-4, he certainly does not deserve to be. Scherzer has been hit hard in five of his past nine starts in which he’s allowed five runs or more all of them. He has a GB/LD/FB profile of 37%/20%/44% and an 11% HR/FB rate. We all know the White Sox can go deep with a number of different players and that should bode well here against Scherzer’s fly-ball tendencies (he’s surrendered 16 jacks already). Besides Scherzer’s struggles, the Tigers are not looking good these days. They took three of four against the Royals before the break but each win was uglier than the last one. Other than beating the Royals, the Tigers have just one other series win since June 17 and over that span the Tigers are averaging just 3.5 RPG on a .650 OPS. Edwin Jackson had a huge second half last season (103 BPV). This season, his skills have continued along the same level with the exception of a bad April (5.86 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 54 BPV). His post-April BPV by month: 98, 92, 122. Overall, a 35% hit rate has kept his ERA above 4.00. Now's the time to target him because he’s way undervalued and he could easily dominate these Tigers. Big overlay. Play: Chicago +142 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
Last 30 Days 35 40 1 -0.30 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 128 153 2 -13.78 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Florida +111 over CHICAGO
Carlos Zambrano missed the minimum 15 days and makes his return here in this matinee game. He made just one rehab start, where he pitched four innings and allowed one run with four strikeouts and three walks for Class-A Peoria. Zambrano's control has taken a turn for the worse this season and in six June starts he struck out 22 while walking 18. Zambrano also has a history of imploding in day games. Even when he was a dominating pitcher he always had a bunch of miserable performances in day games. When we look back at his past three years in day games, Zambrano started 29 games and allowed 207 hits and 97 ER in 169.2 innings for a BAA of .304 and an ERA of 5.15. His excessive workload over the years has worn him down and it’s not like he’s pitching for the Phillies. Only two teams in the entire league have fewer wins than the Cubs. The Marlins had won six straight before the break and Javier Vazquez has found something. Vazquez reportedly is pitching more with his lower body now, an approach that might have helped him rejuvenate his skills. In fact, over his last five starts, Vazquez has struck out 19 and walked just three. He’s allowed a total of four earned runs in those five games and zero earned runs in three of those five. It’s also worth noting that two of those five games were in Philadelphia and Texas and that’s where he allowed two earned runs in both games. Over his last five starts, Vazquez is pitching as good as anyone in the league right now and while one game could be considered a fluke, five in a row with a new approach cannot. Play: Florida +111 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland –108 over BALTIMORE
Can someone please explain why Buck Showalter bats Nick Markakis second? Isn’t your #2 hitter the guy that moves runners over, bunts well and usually makes contact? Markakis does all that but he’s also hitting .292, has a .338 average with RISP and he’s a #3, 4, 5 or 6 hitter, not a #2. In any case, how can you argue with a manager that has his team losing nine in a row and 14 of the last 15 games? Losing is highly contagious and with each loss, winning the next day becomes even more difficult. Enter Alfredo Simon who had 17 saves and a 4.93 ERA in 49 IP for the O’s last year. The irony was he lost his closer's job in Aug, which was his best month of the year (121 BPV). 'Twas poetic justice, as he doesn't own skills for closer job or any job for that matter. Simon was sitting in a Dominican Republic jail as a shooting suspect just a few months ago and rejoined the team in late May (guess he was cleared). He’s appeared in just eight games and has posted a WHIP of 1.65 and an ERA of 4.85. His xERA keeps rising and is now at 6.09 over the past month. Simon is a career minor-league, who has spent very limited time at this level and has never been able to stick. He’s 30-years old and has only 94 career IP in the majors. Carlos Carrasco has shown significant monthly skill growth this season. His BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) by month: 32, 70, 99. This growth has come from improved control and a 55%+ GB%. He has a ton more upside than Simon and the Indians as a whole are in a much better state of mind than these plunging Orioles. Play: Cleveland –108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Chicago +142 over DETROIT
If whacking Justin Verlander doesn’t get this offense of the White Sox going, nothing will. That eight-run outburst last night has to carry some momentum with it because Verlander has been as close to untouchable as any pitcher this season. Now the South Side will face Max Scherzer and while Scherzer is 10-4, he certainly does not deserve to be. Scherzer has been hit hard in five of his past nine starts in which he’s allowed five runs or more all of them. He has a GB/LD/FB profile of 37%/20%/44% and an 11% HR/FB rate. We all know the White Sox can go deep with a number of different players and that should bode well here against Scherzer’s fly-ball tendencies (he’s surrendered 16 jacks already). Besides Scherzer’s struggles, the Tigers are not looking good these days. They took three of four against the Royals before the break but each win was uglier than the last one. Other than beating the Royals, the Tigers have just one other series win since June 17 and over that span the Tigers are averaging just 3.5 RPG on a .650 OPS. Edwin Jackson had a huge second half last season (103 BPV). This season, his skills have continued along the same level with the exception of a bad April (5.86 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 54 BPV). His post-April BPV by month: 98, 92, 122. Overall, a 35% hit rate has kept his ERA above 4.00. Now's the time to target him because he’s way undervalued and he could easily dominate these Tigers. Big overlay. Play: Chicago +142 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
