Rashad Vs Tito, Stann Vs Sonnen, Condit Vs Penn... I need your help

What's up fellow RXers. I've been doing well on the past 4 UFC fights. Largely in part to your feedback and insight, and also to Greg Jackson.

There are three upcoming fights that I need your help with:

1. Rashad Vs Tito. Now this fight isn't one that I would lay any significant money on. Personally I like Tito. Sure he has an excuse for everything and a self-promoting mouth that in recent years barked louder than it bit. But I like the guy. He has heart, he has fought many of the UFC's greats, and let's face it... I just love the Gravedigger move! When he fought Ryan Bader, I laid $50 on Tito. Honestly, not because I thought he could win, but because Bader's line kept moving up to almost -$625. Tito was +$450 and since I just won $500 on Melvin Guillard I figured what the hell. Now Tito faces Rashad Evans. Hmmm, the only chance I see for Tito is Rashad having serious ring rust. Since this will be a Main Event, I believe Dana White will force them to go 5 rounds. I'm not sure if either fighter can handle 5 rounds. I would love to see Tito hit Rashad's glass chin and make him fold like Bader, but I think Rashad is too quick. I see a decision happening. I think Tito's Gravedigger move won't be seen again.

2. Stann Vs Sonnen. As you know, I think Greg Jackson has the best training camp on the planet right now. Coaching is everything in ALL sports, not just MMA. Solid coaching can turn mediocre players into winners, and good players into superstars. Greg Jackson is a genius at developing a game plan to counter opponents fighting styles. And he has the training partners to help mimic opponents. Sonnen is a solid wrestler but a marginal striker. He too will be facing ring rust when he finally steps into the ring. I think Brian Stann is a rising superstar for the UFC. He is humble, respectful, and takes his job seriously. I think he could have a couple more fights under his belt before getting a title shot. That being said, I think the UFC also knows this. Joe Silva, the matchmaker, won't put together a fight that won't excite. And Dana White won't allow a fight that doesn't make sense. I think Brian Stann will win by KO or TKO. His keys to winning would be to avoid fighting Sonnen's fight. Stann needs to avoid takedowns, avoid wrestling, and keep his distance. Make Sonnen stand with him and Sonnen will get caught. It's mind blowing to me how much Sonnen talks crap. I'd like to see what he starts saying about Brian Stann who is a military decorated hero and a legit nice guy. I see Greg Jackson preparing Stann well for this fight. He should get his hand raised.

3. Condit Vs Penn. Well I'm from Hawaii so I've been a Penn fan forever... BUT not so much anymore. Truth is, BJ PENN doesn't train. I have friends that have trained with him for some of his previous fights. He relies on his natural talent alone. When he was training for Matt Hughs, he would train for an hour then drink beer. That's his mentality. I see Condit as being the more hungry fighter. He will come in prepared. Greg Jackson will have him ready. I don't see Penn getting KOd or submitted. I see a 3 round decision with Condit controling him with his size advantage. I hate to say it but unless BJ starts to take fighting seriously again, I can't keep betting on him.

These are just my thoughts and I would love to hear yours.

I think Sonnen is an absolutely terrible matchup for Stann. Stann was dominated by Phil Davis and hasn't faced many other wrestlers. He has the chance to throw up a triangle but I don't see it happening. Sonnen has almost 40 pro fights and has never been knocked out (two TKO losses, one by cut, the other by his corner throwing in the towel). Sonnen should be able to take Stann down at will IMO.

Good luck on the other 2. I'm rooting for Condit. Always liked watching that kid scrap. Him against Nick Diaz would be a war for the ages.

Thanks for the input Jake. I wonder why the UFC is even putting the Stann/Sonnen fight together. There are way more fighters both of them could be matched up against. I always question how ring rust will affect a fighter. Cases in point: Carwin, Santiago, Belfort, Wandy, Rampage (when he was filming the A-Team) and now Rashad and Sonnen. I'm sure I'm missing a few more. I just think their timing and rhythm will be off.

Well, we still have a lot of time to do our research. Thanks for helping me make my picks. The past 4 UFCs have been great for me. I played Stann, Mark Munoz, Matt Mitrione, then I swept the last UFC 132 (Guillard, Condit, Ortiz, and Leben)

I'd love to keep the $$$ coming in before the football season starts!

Nice! I'm a huge Leben fan so I was doing backflips when he took out Wanderlei (even though I love Wandy too). Good luck on the bets. I've won lots of cash on baseball and college football but nothing comes close to the MMA money. This sport is awesome on many levels.

any thoughts on the Rampage/Bones fight...I know Bones is a beast and at the top of his game but the ML on Page looks so good I am trying to convince myslef he can win..

I'm actually bummed that Jon Jones is fighting Rampage. I really like Rampage and want him to return to his former glory...BUT I just don't see that happening. Not against Jon Jones at least. It pains me to say this, but I really think Rampage can get TKOd in this fight. Does Rampage have the one punch knockout in his fists? Absolutely, but he hasn't been able to show this since his KO of Wanderlei back in Dec. of 2008. He couldn't even knockout the ultra slow Matt Hamill.

Rampage recently lashed out at Greg Jackson for ruining MMA. He stated that the Jackson camp puts together game plans that involve laying and praying, and wrestling versus actually banging and getting into wars. Unfortunately, fighters have figured out that its much easier and much less painful to wrestle and control someone on the ground than engage in a striking match.

Rampage wants to stand and bang and Greg Jackson knows this. He will come up with a solid plan to keep Jones out of Rampage's reach. Jon is much quicker and more well rounded than Rampage. I see Jones frustrating Rampage with his speed and awkward style, then taking him down and finishing him with fists and elbows.

I don't see Rampage coming out with a decision win this time. It hurts me to say this because I am a huge Rampage fan, but I think the style of fighting that Rampage wants doesn't exist much with fighters that have superior training camps. He won't find someone that will stand in the pocket and trade punches... that is unless Chris Leben comes up in weight.

I see Jones by TKO.

My opinion is Sonnen takes that fight. He fought a far scarier striker in Anderson and wasn't too phased. I see Sonnen on top and Stann not quite being good enough to submit him.

Condit/Penn who knows. Depends on the odds. If Penn is around EVEN I like Penn as the better boxer straight down the middle. But I think Penn will be around -130-140, in that case it is just too close to judge. I think you could get a nice goes the distance line. Both guys are tough to stop, I expect this to be a war, but both are good enough to survive and stay in it.

Evans/Tito - I don't like Rashad at -400 and higher, but I think he wins. I think better is him by decision at around -150. Tito I guess is worth a shot if you are a fan. But if he was supposed to be a -500 vs. Bader, then he should be that vs Evans. Evans is twice the fighter Bader is. But I wouldn't lay that juice. Far too many questions about this one. Tito short camp, Rashad new camp, Rashad layoff ect.

Sonnen and Rashad both by decision, wait for the props to come out, don't lay that juice