Yesterday 2 1 0 +2.90 Units
Last 30 Days 35 39 1 +2.58 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 130 154 2 -10.88 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Chicago +107 over DETROIT
Is there anything to like about the Tigers laying a price with Brad Penny throwing? Penny has 47 k’s and 35 walks in 110 innings of work and that’s about as ugly as it gets in terms of BB/K ratio for those of you playing along at home. His 2011 skills are, to put it mildly, pathetic and the only thing keeping him afloat is pure dumb luck. Penny is 33-years-old and loves hamburgers a lot more than carrot sticks and has spent 229 days on the DL over the past three seasons. He’s a broken down, scrap yard pick-up and his chances for second half success is as close to zero as any pitcher in the game. Furthermore, the Tigers are seeing BB’s right now. Here’s a team with five all-stars and perhaps the best pitcher in the league and they’re barely above .500. Over its past 12 games the Tigers have scored 37 runs and batted .226. Philip Humber is not exactly a household name but he was a top prospect at one point and he’s having a very decent year. Humber has elite control (27 BB in 107 IP) and he also has a solid 3.10 ERA. He has a nice groundball/line-drive/flyball profile of 47%/14%/39% and it’s been even better (60%/10%/30%) over the past month. The South Side has woken up in this series, winning the first two games of this series and outscoring the Tigers 13-2 after facing Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander and they should pound the stiff they'll be facing today. Play: Chicago +107 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +103 over CHICAGO
Just like the Tigers have no appeal whatsoever today, the Cubbies have less. Randy Wells has a job only because he plays for the Cubs. If any other team owned his rights he’d be down in the minors or even worse. Chicago is low on bodies in the rotation and they really don’t have much of a choice but to use this stiff. Wells has 22 BB and 32 K’s in 46 IP. He has a 6.80 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP after allowing 58 hits (eight jacks) in those 46 frames for a BAA of .312. In his last three starts against Washington, the White Sox and Royals, Wells has been knocked around to the tune of 28 hits and 16 runs in 16 innings. The Cubs have lost his last four starts and have been outscored 27-15 over those four games. Chris Volstad is just 24-years old and has 31 BB and 68 k’s in 103 innings. Volstad has some horrible surface stats coming into this start (5.40 ERA, 1.46 WHIP), but he owns good command and 50%+ GB%. These marks have given him a sub-4.00 xERA. A high 17% HR/F has hurt him. Six of his last eight starts have been rock solid and in the other two he imploded both times but they were both against the Phillies. Volstad allowed three runs or less in all six other starts. He’s way undervalued here. Wrong side favored. Play: Florida +103 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO +103 over N.Y. Yankees
Phil Hughes’s fast start a year ago began to fade in June as falling strikeout rate and gopheritis (HR’s allowed) became issues. Late-season time off didn't help much and he still looked wobbly at year-end. Hughes returned to the Yankees rotation on July 6, ending a two-and-half-month exile occasioned by thoracic outlet syndrome, which sapped his velocity and ultimately his effectiveness. Yankee fans would like to forget how awful he was early in the season (16 ER in 10 1/3 IP over three starts). Reports are that Hughes' velocity has returned, and the results have followed, with Hughes striking out 11 over 9 2/3 IP at Double-A Trenton after whiffing 7 in 4 1/3 IP at Low-A Staten Island. If Hughes' arm is sound (and we’re not buying that it is), he could perhaps approach the form that allowed him to win 18 games backed by the Yankees' powerful lineup last year. It is perhaps worth noting, however, that “that form" is that of merely a good pitcher, rather than a staff ace (xERA 4.34), his strikeout rate is down by 2.5 K/9 from his 2009 season, during which he pitched primarily out of the bullpen. This is not an easy park to pitch in with the roof open and the temperatures near or over 100. Balls fly out of here in these conditions and for a guy that hasn’t shown anything at all in over a year to be favored against the red-hot Jays in Toronto is somewhat ludicrous. Prior to losing to Sabathia yesterday (everyone is losing to that guy), the Jays had won five in a row and scored 11, 5, 7, 16 and 7 runs respectively. Carlos Villanueva made a transition from relieving to starting in late May. He has enjoyed considerable success, hurling six innings or more in six straight starts but his success is not entirely supported by his skills. He’s not as good as his numbers suggest but that’s a topic for another day and one you can be sure we’ll get into. For now, this one is all about taking back a tag against Hughes. If these two pitchers traded uniforms today, the Yanks would be a –240 favorite. Play: Toronto +103 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
Last 30 Days 35 39 1 +2.58 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 130 154 2 -10.88 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Chicago +107 over DETROIT
Is there anything to like about the Tigers laying a price with Brad Penny throwing? Penny has 47 k’s and 35 walks in 110 innings of work and that’s about as ugly as it gets in terms of BB/K ratio for those of you playing along at home. His 2011 skills are, to put it mildly, pathetic and the only thing keeping him afloat is pure dumb luck. Penny is 33-years-old and loves hamburgers a lot more than carrot sticks and has spent 229 days on the DL over the past three seasons. He’s a broken down, scrap yard pick-up and his chances for second half success is as close to zero as any pitcher in the game. Furthermore, the Tigers are seeing BB’s right now. Here’s a team with five all-stars and perhaps the best pitcher in the league and they’re barely above .500. Over its past 12 games the Tigers have scored 37 runs and batted .226. Philip Humber is not exactly a household name but he was a top prospect at one point and he’s having a very decent year. Humber has elite control (27 BB in 107 IP) and he also has a solid 3.10 ERA. He has a nice groundball/line-drive/flyball profile of 47%/14%/39% and it’s been even better (60%/10%/30%) over the past month. The South Side has woken up in this series, winning the first two games of this series and outscoring the Tigers 13-2 after facing Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander and they should pound the stiff they'll be facing today. Play: Chicago +107 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +103 over CHICAGO
Just like the Tigers have no appeal whatsoever today, the Cubbies have less. Randy Wells has a job only because he plays for the Cubs. If any other team owned his rights he’d be down in the minors or even worse. Chicago is low on bodies in the rotation and they really don’t have much of a choice but to use this stiff. Wells has 22 BB and 32 K’s in 46 IP. He has a 6.80 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP after allowing 58 hits (eight jacks) in those 46 frames for a BAA of .312. In his last three starts against Washington, the White Sox and Royals, Wells has been knocked around to the tune of 28 hits and 16 runs in 16 innings. The Cubs have lost his last four starts and have been outscored 27-15 over those four games. Chris Volstad is just 24-years old and has 31 BB and 68 k’s in 103 innings. Volstad has some horrible surface stats coming into this start (5.40 ERA, 1.46 WHIP), but he owns good command and 50%+ GB%. These marks have given him a sub-4.00 xERA. A high 17% HR/F has hurt him. Six of his last eight starts have been rock solid and in the other two he imploded both times but they were both against the Phillies. Volstad allowed three runs or less in all six other starts. He’s way undervalued here. Wrong side favored. Play: Florida +103 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO +103 over N.Y. Yankees
Phil Hughes’s fast start a year ago began to fade in June as falling strikeout rate and gopheritis (HR’s allowed) became issues. Late-season time off didn't help much and he still looked wobbly at year-end. Hughes returned to the Yankees rotation on July 6, ending a two-and-half-month exile occasioned by thoracic outlet syndrome, which sapped his velocity and ultimately his effectiveness. Yankee fans would like to forget how awful he was early in the season (16 ER in 10 1/3 IP over three starts). Reports are that Hughes' velocity has returned, and the results have followed, with Hughes striking out 11 over 9 2/3 IP at Double-A Trenton after whiffing 7 in 4 1/3 IP at Low-A Staten Island. If Hughes' arm is sound (and we’re not buying that it is), he could perhaps approach the form that allowed him to win 18 games backed by the Yankees' powerful lineup last year. It is perhaps worth noting, however, that “that form" is that of merely a good pitcher, rather than a staff ace (xERA 4.34), his strikeout rate is down by 2.5 K/9 from his 2009 season, during which he pitched primarily out of the bullpen. This is not an easy park to pitch in with the roof open and the temperatures near or over 100. Balls fly out of here in these conditions and for a guy that hasn’t shown anything at all in over a year to be favored against the red-hot Jays in Toronto is somewhat ludicrous. Prior to losing to Sabathia yesterday (everyone is losing to that guy), the Jays had won five in a row and scored 11, 5, 7, 16 and 7 runs respectively. Carlos Villanueva made a transition from relieving to starting in late May. He has enjoyed considerable success, hurling six innings or more in six straight starts but his success is not entirely supported by his skills. He’s not as good as his numbers suggest but that’s a topic for another day and one you can be sure we’ll get into. For now, this one is all about taking back a tag against Hughes. If these two pitchers traded uniforms today, the Yanks would be a –240 favorite. Play: Toronto +103 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
