Cnotes Sunday's WNBA Best Bets !

CNOTES · Jul 17, 2011

WNBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, July 17

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TULSA (1 - 13) at NEW YORK (8 - 6) - 7/17/2011, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 4-2 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 4-2 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (10 - 4) at CONNECTICUT (7 - 5) - 7/17/2011, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 73-108 ATS (-45.8 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
INDIANA is 25-45 ATS (-24.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.
CONNECTICUT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 6-4 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 6-4 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (2 - 10) at LOS ANGELES (6 - 6) - 7/17/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 200-250 ATS (-75.0 Units) in all games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 116-157 ATS (-56.7 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 54-78 ATS (-31.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) against Western conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-0 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CNOTES · Jul 17, 2011

WNBA
Dunkel

Sunday, July 17

Washington at Los Angeles
The Mystics look to build on their 5-0-1 ATS record in their last 6 games in Los Angeles. Washington is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+10 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, JULY 17

Game 651-652: Tulsa at New York (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 96.171; New York 118.107
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 22; 157
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 12; 153
Dunkel Pick: New York (-12); Over

Game 653-654: Indiana at Connecticut (5:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 115.927; Connecticut 114.574
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1 1/2; 146
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 4 1/2; 151
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+4 1/2); Under

Game 655-656: Washington at Los Angeles (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 105.913; Los Angeles 109.829
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4; 158
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 10 1/2; 150
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+10 1/2); Over

WNBA

Sunday, July 17

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Trend Report
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4:00 PM
TULSA vs. NEW YORK
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tulsa's last 6 games
Tulsa is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New York
New York is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tulsa
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 6 games at home

5:00 PM
INDIANA vs. CONNECTICUT
Indiana is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Connecticut
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indiana's last 7 games on the road
Connecticut is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Connecticut's last 5 games when playing Indiana

8:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing Washington
Los Angeles is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games

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WNBA

Sunday, July 17

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Lady luck: Sunday's best WNBA bets
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Washington Mystics at Los Angeles Sparks (-8.5, 148.5)

Los Angeles basketball fans are used to having a Bryant lead their team to victory. But, in the case of the Sparks, it’s not No. 24 pushing the squad to back-to-back wins.

Joe Bryant, the former pro baller and father of Lakers star Kobe Bryant, is 2-0 as the new head coach of the L.A. Sparks, picking up win No. 2 with a 79-74 victory against the Tulsa Shock Friday night. This is Bryant’s second go-around as Los Angeles’ coach, having stepped into the head coaching role from 2005 to 2007.

Bryant has his work cut out for him in Los Angeles. His Sparks are playing without their best player, Candace Parker, who is out until at least next month with a torn meniscus. In order to make up for Parker’s 18 points per game, Bryant has leaned on bench offense in his two games on the sidelines, getting great production from his reserves.

In those two games, Los Angeles’ reserves have scored a combined 67 points, including a 49-point in an 84-74 victory over the San Antonio Silver Stars Tuesday.

That offensive outpouring has allowed L.A. to maintain its scoring prowess without Parker in the lineup. The Sparks are averaging more than 80 points (fourth in the WNBA) and have played over the total in seven of their 12 games this season. The two games under Bryant have pushed with the oddsmakers’ number.

Pick: Over

Indiana Fever at Connecticut Sun (-3, 151.5)

The Connecticut Sun are happy to be back home after a three-game road trip. The Sun, who haven’t played inside Mohegan Sun Arena since July 1, went 1-2 SU and ATS on that trip, winning their most recent outing, 68-59, over the New York Liberty Friday.

Connecticut’s two defeats on the trip were due to terrible defense, giving up 90 points each to Indiana and Minnesota and allowing those opponents to shoot nearly 50 percent from the floor (combined 68 for 137). Against the Liberty, the Sun clamped down, allowing New York to shoot just 37.5 percent and forcing 18 turnovers.

"The defensive end has got to come first because that can get you through down times," head coach Mike Thibault told reporters. "(Indiana and Seattle) are both veteran teams that have played together for a while. We, for stretches, are like that, and for some others we're not. And certainly not for long enough stretches on the road."

Connecticut is yielding 73.2 points per game at home this year – nearly five points fewer than on the road. And, in the last five contests with the Fever, the over/under is 1-4.

Pick: Under

CNOTES · Jul 17, 2011

Sunday's betting tips: McCutchen thriving in cleanup spot

Weather to watch

There’s a 60 percent chance of rain Sunday at the British Open, with winds from the southwest at 21 miles per hour. The high temperature will be 62 degrees.

Who’s hot

MLB: Pittsburgh is 9-2 in Kevin Correia’s last 11 road starts.

MLB: Arizona is 8-2 in Daniel Hudson’s last 10 starts on grass.

WNBA: The New York Liberty are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games.

Who’s not

MLB: Colorado is 2-15 in its last 17 Sunday games.

MLB: The Under is 2-8 in Homer Bailey’s last 10 starts for Cincinnati.

WNBA: The Indiana Fever are 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to Connecticut.

Injury not to be overlooked

Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista, who has missed two games with an ankle injury, will be evaluated again on Sunday in hopes he can return Tuesday against Seattle. Bautista leads MLB with 31 homers.

Key stat

16 – Heading into Saturday’s game, Pittsburgh center fielder Andrew McCutchen had 16 RBIs in the 14 games he’s hit cleanup. The Pirates, in the thick of the NL Central race, have not had a winning season since 1992.

Notable quotable

"Sometimes we have inclinations that certain things might be happening in certain ballparks and we are aware of it and we try to protect our signs.” – Yankees manager Joe Girardi, who said the Blue Jays “could be” stealing signs using illegal methods.

Game of the day

USA vs. Japan in Women’s World Cup Final, 2:45 p.m. ET

Tips and notes

The USA women, 22-0-3 alltime against Japan, are favored to win the World Cup title Sunday in Germany. BetOnline.com has the USA at -185 to hoist the trophy, with Japan set at +150. On the total of 2 goals in regulation, the odds are -150 on Over and +130 on Under.

Sources told ESPN that NFL free agency is likely to begin July 25, assuming progress continues to be made toward a new collective bargaining agreement. Teams would get a 72-hour window to negotiate with their own free agents before any team could approach those players.

Umpire Chris Conroy will be behind the plate when Baltimore hosts Cleveland on Sunday. The Over is 6-1 in Conroy's last seven games calling balls and strikes.

CNOTES · Jul 17, 2011

Sunday's six-pack

Odds to win the college football national championship

3-1-- Oklahoma-- 20-8-1 vs spread in last 29 games as home favorite.

4-1-- Alabama-- +31 in turnovers the last two seasons (24-3).

6-1-- LSU-- Play Oregon at JerryWorld in interesting season opener.

7-1-- Oregon-- NCAA's guillotine is hanging over this program's head.

8-1-- Florida State-- 4-1 in last five bowls, scoring average of 36.8 ppg.

11-1-- Nebraska-- 29-12 under Pelini, despite a minus-7 turnover ratio.

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Sunday's List of 13: Thinking out loud in the desert.........

13) I want to know how many taxi cabs there are in Las Vegas, because I think every one of them was out tonight. Wish one of the drivers would write a book about his/her experiences. Would be good stuff.

12) Friday's crowd for Boston-Tampa Bay game: 25,729. Saturday they drew 32,487, still 10% short of capacity, and that includes lof of Boston fans. The future of the baseball in the Tampa Bay area isn't very bright- these are big games in the AL East/Wild Card race.

11) Rumor has it the Rays were hot after Francisco Rodriguez before the Mets traded him to Milwaukee.

10) No night in a Las Vegas casino is official until you see a guy wearing a Hawaiian shirt and a sombrero. Happens every night.

9) Rumors are out there that the Colorado Rockies are floating their star pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez; how would they justify that to their fans?

8) Baseball's appeal rules for suspensions stinks; David Ortiz can appeal his suspension, and play in these important Tampa Bay games, then drop his appeal when Boston is playing lesser teams. Not good.

7) Tampa Bay outfielder Sam Fuld went to high school with the guy who founded Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg.

6) When Dick Stockton/Tim McCarver work together on Saturday FOX games, they spend way too much time talking about things that went on before 1970. Try to keep it in this century, fellas.

5) Former heavyweight boxing contender Earnie Shavers was signing this weekend at a sports memorabilia shop at Planet Hollywood. I'm not a big boxing guy, but I walked past his table-- he's a very large man, still looks like he could kick someone's butt, and he's in his 60's. .

4) Mark Ellis is 12-24 with 10 RBI at Coors Field this season. In every other stadium, he's hitting .211 with 16 RBI in 242 AB's.

3) How could the Lakers not tell Brian Shaw face-to-face that they were not going to hire him as head coach? Shaw found out by watching TV.

2) Boston's BABC summer team won the Peach Jam in Augusta, Georgia, one of the best summer basketball tournaments. Jaylen Brantley scored 24 points in the finals for BABC, which beat a team from Memphis.

1) Is the NFL going to have a supplemental draft after the new CBA is signed? Where do you think Terrelle Pryor will go? He's going to be an interesting study, because he didn't want to leave college- he left because of all the NCAA problems Ohio State has. He's not NFL-ready yet.

CNOTES · Jul 17, 2011

4:00 PM ETTulsa at New York
Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds
TUL 651 1-13 (0-7 V) - 152.5 Over
NY 652 8-6 (4-3 H) - -12.5 New York

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores
Opinion: Consensus | Team Experts 5:00 PM ETIndiana at Connecticut
Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds
IND 653 10-4 (3-2 V) - 150.5 Under
CONN 654 7-5 (5-0 H) - -4 Conn

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores
Opinion: Consensus | Team Experts
8:30 PM ETWashington at Los Angeles
Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds
WAS 655 2-10 (1-6 V) - 150 Under
LA 656 6-6 (4-0 H) - -10 Washington + 10

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores
Opinion: Consensus | Team Experts

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