Yesterday 1 2 0 -1.94 Units
Last 30 Days 36 37 1 +8.64 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 131 156 2 -12.82 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Atlanta +118 over COLORADO
Two teams going in opposite directions. The Braves remain the runaway leader for the NL wildcard, despite trailing Philly by 3½ games in the NL East. Colorado is slipping from contention in the NL West, as they’re nine games out. The Rocks continue to juggle their lineup largely without success, with Dexter Fowler and Ian Stewart recently recalled and plugged into starting roles after being banished to the minors after early-season struggles. Jason Hammel’s 4.23 ERA is nothing but an illusion. His strikeout rate is awful and so is his BB/K (41/56) ratio. Hammel is not missing many bats and there’s big proof of that. Hitters are making contact 94% of the time Hammel throws a pitch in the strike zone and that’s a number that should not be ignored. In other words, a swing and a miss occurs less than 1 in 10 times when he’s in the zone. He’s showing signs of fatigue with an xERA of 5.75 over his past five starts. Jason Hammel is a nothing pitcher that’s keeping afloat with very little skills and plenty of luck. Derek Lowe is an extreme groundball pitcher with a GB rate up over 60%. He’s maintained that all season and for about 10 seasons running. He won’t dazzle but what he will do 90% of the time is give the Braves a big chance to win. Lowe is 1000 times more appealing taking back a tag than Hammel is laying one. Don’t leave this one out. Play: Atlanta +118 (Risking 2 units).
PITTSBURGH –108 over Cincinnati
The Pirates are a team that’s easy to root for. They play hard and they play to win. They’re now five games over .500 (same as the Tigers), yet they’re a small price over the Reds with Dontrelle Willis going. Forget James MacDonald, as this has nothing to do with betting on him. Let’s focus on laying less than a dime against an experiment that has no chance of success. In 35 years of player profiles, this may just be the worst skill set ever. We all remember when Dontrelle Willis broke on to the scene in 2003 with a high leg kick and a nasty darting fastball that made him the darling of Major League Baseball. That same Dontrelle Willis is in the Reds rotation thanks to a minor league invite with that same electric smile and a skill set that you shouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole. 2010 was a complete debacle for Willis as he wore four different uniforms (Tigers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Reds) in a seven-month span. The ERA (5.62) and xERA (6.44) don't lie. Willis just doesn't have the same stuff he had in 2003. Nobody can survive with a WHIP like that (1.95). The scary thing is that teams are still giving Willis a shot after three years with a WHIP hovering near 2 base runners an inning. It's not easy walking nearly 8 batters per 9 IP, but Willis has done that the last three years as well. Want another reality check? Willis has won just three games in the Majors since 2007. Read that again…. three wins since 2007. Take our word for it. Don't even think the name Dontrelle Willis. You will thank us later. Play: Pittsburgh –108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 36 37 1 +8.64 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 131 156 2 -12.82 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Atlanta +118 over COLORADO
Two teams going in opposite directions. The Braves remain the runaway leader for the NL wildcard, despite trailing Philly by 3½ games in the NL East. Colorado is slipping from contention in the NL West, as they’re nine games out. The Rocks continue to juggle their lineup largely without success, with Dexter Fowler and Ian Stewart recently recalled and plugged into starting roles after being banished to the minors after early-season struggles. Jason Hammel’s 4.23 ERA is nothing but an illusion. His strikeout rate is awful and so is his BB/K (41/56) ratio. Hammel is not missing many bats and there’s big proof of that. Hitters are making contact 94% of the time Hammel throws a pitch in the strike zone and that’s a number that should not be ignored. In other words, a swing and a miss occurs less than 1 in 10 times when he’s in the zone. He’s showing signs of fatigue with an xERA of 5.75 over his past five starts. Jason Hammel is a nothing pitcher that’s keeping afloat with very little skills and plenty of luck. Derek Lowe is an extreme groundball pitcher with a GB rate up over 60%. He’s maintained that all season and for about 10 seasons running. He won’t dazzle but what he will do 90% of the time is give the Braves a big chance to win. Lowe is 1000 times more appealing taking back a tag than Hammel is laying one. Don’t leave this one out. Play: Atlanta +118 (Risking 2 units).
PITTSBURGH –108 over Cincinnati
The Pirates are a team that’s easy to root for. They play hard and they play to win. They’re now five games over .500 (same as the Tigers), yet they’re a small price over the Reds with Dontrelle Willis going. Forget James MacDonald, as this has nothing to do with betting on him. Let’s focus on laying less than a dime against an experiment that has no chance of success. In 35 years of player profiles, this may just be the worst skill set ever. We all remember when Dontrelle Willis broke on to the scene in 2003 with a high leg kick and a nasty darting fastball that made him the darling of Major League Baseball. That same Dontrelle Willis is in the Reds rotation thanks to a minor league invite with that same electric smile and a skill set that you shouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole. 2010 was a complete debacle for Willis as he wore four different uniforms (Tigers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Reds) in a seven-month span. The ERA (5.62) and xERA (6.44) don't lie. Willis just doesn't have the same stuff he had in 2003. Nobody can survive with a WHIP like that (1.95). The scary thing is that teams are still giving Willis a shot after three years with a WHIP hovering near 2 base runners an inning. It's not easy walking nearly 8 batters per 9 IP, but Willis has done that the last three years as well. Want another reality check? Willis has won just three games in the Majors since 2007. Read that again…. three wins since 2007. Take our word for it. Don't even think the name Dontrelle Willis. You will thank us later. Play: Pittsburgh –108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
