Nats smack Happ

ofred · Jul 19, 2011

Tuesday, 7/19

Nats - 1 1/2 2 units

Heavy chalk here, but a huge mismatch in starters. Happ has not had a quality start in a long time. He's nibbling, and has always struggled with control. Astro bullpen will be called on early. Also Astros missing Bourgeois and Downs, making them a little thinner. Zimmerman has been in a groove lately. 9 out of 10 quality starts. Great control and knows he has a solid bullpen behind him. Nats are also hitting in the clutch. After Lyles great stuff Monday, Happ will look like batting practice. Happ is a lefty and most of the better Nat hitters are righties or switch.

YTD: 4-2 + 8 units

ofred · Jul 19, 2011

Rangers also look very tempting. Chatwood has 22 walks in last 32 innings between majors and minors. He might be rusty and facing the best line up in the AL. Ogando has 0.64 ERA in 14 innings vs. LAA. Angels have hitting issues against good pitchers.

Pokergnome · Jul 19, 2011

I can get the Nats at -154, thinking i should get on this before it gets any shorter??

ofred · Jul 19, 2011

adding a 1 unit play on 1H Washington -1/2 -110

qwzej · Jul 19, 2011

"Happ is 1-0 with a 1.62 ERA over three career starts versus the Nationals."

billhill999 · Jul 19, 2011

qwzej said:
"Happ is 1-0 with a 1.62 ERA over three career starts versus the Nationals."

9 for 47 (.214)
Even the on base percentage in .283

The juice is .47 on a .20 game

Nats are a severe overlay here, they might win, but why lay -147 on a -120 game?

Mlink · Jul 19, 2011

billhill999 said:
9 for 47 (.214)
Even the on base percentage in .283

The juice is .47 on a .20 game

Nats are a severe overlay here, they might win, but why lay -147 on a -120 game?

agree the line is way too high for the nats against happ who has good numbers against the nats....no play on this one

ofred · Jul 19, 2011

I guess my reasoning is that none of those Happ outings were this year. He pitched well against the hapless hitting Nats prior to this year. They are better, and Happ has been getting shelled lately. Zimmerman rarely walks anyone and has given up only 4 HRs in 115 innings. Just looks like a huge pitching mismatch.

Mlink · Jul 19, 2011

o fred said:
I guess my reasoning is that none of those Happ outings were this year. He pitched well against the hapless hitting Nats prior to this year. They are better, and Happ has been getting shelled lately. Zimmerman rarely walks anyone and has given up only 4 HRs in 115 innings. Just looks like a huge pitching mismatch.

you are right, espinosa, desmond, werth, morse, are all different hitters from when happ pitched against the nats with philly, so it could be different teams and different defense playing behind him as well... just a weird line too high ya know?

ofred · Jul 19, 2011

I think Vegas put it there for a reason. Astros find a way to lose, while Nats are overachievers.

OmegaGMequation · Jul 19, 2011

Nationals not gonna cover 1.5 points

ShortBusDriver7 · Jul 19, 2011

you can thank W. Ramos for his debacle of a game

ofred · Jul 20, 2011

still like that bet

Who would have thought Zimmerman would have his worst outing of the year? But that's baseball. Happ did give up his usual amount of runs. He still is a bet against pitcher, and the Astros a bet against team. Let's see what's going Wednesday....

YTD: 4-4 + 5 units

Nats smack Happ

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