Yesterday 1 0 0 +2.36 Units
Last 30 Days 36 36 1 +10.96 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 132 156 2 -10.46 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y. Yankees -106 over TAMPA BAY
State of mind plays a role in a team’s performance and after a 16-inning, 1-0 loss on Sunday night that several players called the most devastating of the year, followed by a blown three-run lead last night, the Rays state of mind should be a concern for all TB backers. Jeremy Hellickson has put up some decent numbers (8-7, 3.21 ERA) but he’s not as good as the numbers suggest. He has upside for sure and it’s just his first season but some growing pains are forthcoming. His groundball/line-drive/flyball profile is trending the wrong way. On the year that GB/LD/FB profile looks like this: 33%/19%/48%, which is troubling to begin with but over the past month covering four starts it looks like this: 26%/21%/52% and one simply cannot keep balls in the yard with a profile like that (look for Mark Teixeira to end his HR drought). We also look at Hellickson’s FIP** (for explanation of FIP see bottom of these write-ups) and xFIP and see 4.32 and 4.83 resprctively. Bartolo Colon did not make it out of the first inning in his last start in Toronto but you can’t believe everything you read (meaning his pitching line). There was an error by Nunez that opened the floodgates and that was followed by three infield hits that were not even hits, they were taps or swinging bunts if you will. Colon suffered from pure bad luck and nothing more. Fact is, the guy was tremendous in the first half and his profile and/or skills have been near elite right across the board. The Yankees are rarely undervalued but that last outing against the Jays has Colon undervalued here against a fragile Rays club. Play: N.Y Yankees –106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Texas –1 –105 over L.A. ANGELS
Some of you may not have the option to lay a single run so you can either pass or lay the –130 on the money line. This is what we call a FLUKE ALERT on Tyler Chatwood. Things seem to be going swimmingly for Chatwood. Called up to the Bigs barely a week into the season, Chatwood has made 17 starts, and that sub-4.00 ERA makes it seem like he should be due more than just his total of five wins. In reality, Chatwood is lucky to have five wins, as this is a skill set in need of more Triple-A refinement: His strikeout rate is far below what is necessary for prolonged MLB success. In fairness, his 2010 minor league numbers (in 74 IP) gave us fair warning. Perhaps more troubling is his control: through 99 IP, he's struck out and walked the same number of batters (52 K / 52 BB). He's done this honestly, for the most part with a hit%/strand% of 29%/75% and he's only slightly fortunate with a 7% hr/f. However, xERA is a full run and a half higher than his ERA and a -20 BPV gives very little hope for an immediate improvement. At this point in his professional career, Chatwood has logged more innings in the majors (99) than Double-A and Triple-A combined (74). Given his poor skills, he really does need more work before backers can count on him--but given his "success," that's not coming anytime soon. Our best advice is bail on Chatwood now; the ugliness could begin at any time. Play: Texas –1 –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
PITTSBURGH +113 over Cincinnati
In case you’ve forgotten or just didn’t give a rat’s ass, let us bring you up to speed on the plight of Mike Leake. He had zero minor league experience before last season and more than held his own in the majors in the first half. He was shut down in August after a July and part of August that saw him post an ERA of 7.14. He started laboring badly at around the 90 innings pitched mark and what we’re seeing this year is a repeat of last. Leake is up to 94.2 frames and in his last two starts he’s allowed nine runs over 11.1 innings. He’s also surrendered three jacks over that span. Durability or lack thereof appears to be rearing its ugly head again and that has to be on Leake’s mind. The Pirates took the opener 2-0 last night. They are alone in first place in the NL Central and they’ve won two in a row and seven of 10. When General Manager Neal Huntington acquired James McDonald at the 2010 trade deadline for Octavio Dotel, few batted an eyelash until McDonald delivered a 3.52 ERA over 11 starts for the Pirates to close out the 2010 season. Interestingly enough, he’s allowed three runs or fewer in 10 straight starts and that includes a zero earned run performance against the Red Sox and one earned run allowed in 6.2 innings in Cincinnati. The Pirates have big momentum, they clearly are not at a disadvantage on the hill and they’re wrongly being billed as the pooch here. Play: Pittsburgh +113 (Risking 2 units).
**FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play, so a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level is by looking at things a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns. Obviously, a walk is not as hurtful as a homerun and a strikeout has less impact than both. FIP accounts for these differences, and presents results on the same scale as ERA. It has been proven to be much more effective than ERA at predicting future performance, and has become a mainstay in sabermetric analysis.
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
Last 30 Days 36 36 1 +10.96 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 132 156 2 -10.46 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y. Yankees -106 over TAMPA BAY
State of mind plays a role in a team’s performance and after a 16-inning, 1-0 loss on Sunday night that several players called the most devastating of the year, followed by a blown three-run lead last night, the Rays state of mind should be a concern for all TB backers. Jeremy Hellickson has put up some decent numbers (8-7, 3.21 ERA) but he’s not as good as the numbers suggest. He has upside for sure and it’s just his first season but some growing pains are forthcoming. His groundball/line-drive/flyball profile is trending the wrong way. On the year that GB/LD/FB profile looks like this: 33%/19%/48%, which is troubling to begin with but over the past month covering four starts it looks like this: 26%/21%/52% and one simply cannot keep balls in the yard with a profile like that (look for Mark Teixeira to end his HR drought). We also look at Hellickson’s FIP** (for explanation of FIP see bottom of these write-ups) and xFIP and see 4.32 and 4.83 resprctively. Bartolo Colon did not make it out of the first inning in his last start in Toronto but you can’t believe everything you read (meaning his pitching line). There was an error by Nunez that opened the floodgates and that was followed by three infield hits that were not even hits, they were taps or swinging bunts if you will. Colon suffered from pure bad luck and nothing more. Fact is, the guy was tremendous in the first half and his profile and/or skills have been near elite right across the board. The Yankees are rarely undervalued but that last outing against the Jays has Colon undervalued here against a fragile Rays club. Play: N.Y Yankees –106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Texas –1 –105 over L.A. ANGELS
Some of you may not have the option to lay a single run so you can either pass or lay the –130 on the money line. This is what we call a FLUKE ALERT on Tyler Chatwood. Things seem to be going swimmingly for Chatwood. Called up to the Bigs barely a week into the season, Chatwood has made 17 starts, and that sub-4.00 ERA makes it seem like he should be due more than just his total of five wins. In reality, Chatwood is lucky to have five wins, as this is a skill set in need of more Triple-A refinement: His strikeout rate is far below what is necessary for prolonged MLB success. In fairness, his 2010 minor league numbers (in 74 IP) gave us fair warning. Perhaps more troubling is his control: through 99 IP, he's struck out and walked the same number of batters (52 K / 52 BB). He's done this honestly, for the most part with a hit%/strand% of 29%/75% and he's only slightly fortunate with a 7% hr/f. However, xERA is a full run and a half higher than his ERA and a -20 BPV gives very little hope for an immediate improvement. At this point in his professional career, Chatwood has logged more innings in the majors (99) than Double-A and Triple-A combined (74). Given his poor skills, he really does need more work before backers can count on him--but given his "success," that's not coming anytime soon. Our best advice is bail on Chatwood now; the ugliness could begin at any time. Play: Texas –1 –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
PITTSBURGH +113 over Cincinnati
In case you’ve forgotten or just didn’t give a rat’s ass, let us bring you up to speed on the plight of Mike Leake. He had zero minor league experience before last season and more than held his own in the majors in the first half. He was shut down in August after a July and part of August that saw him post an ERA of 7.14. He started laboring badly at around the 90 innings pitched mark and what we’re seeing this year is a repeat of last. Leake is up to 94.2 frames and in his last two starts he’s allowed nine runs over 11.1 innings. He’s also surrendered three jacks over that span. Durability or lack thereof appears to be rearing its ugly head again and that has to be on Leake’s mind. The Pirates took the opener 2-0 last night. They are alone in first place in the NL Central and they’ve won two in a row and seven of 10. When General Manager Neal Huntington acquired James McDonald at the 2010 trade deadline for Octavio Dotel, few batted an eyelash until McDonald delivered a 3.52 ERA over 11 starts for the Pirates to close out the 2010 season. Interestingly enough, he’s allowed three runs or fewer in 10 straight starts and that includes a zero earned run performance against the Red Sox and one earned run allowed in 6.2 innings in Cincinnati. The Pirates have big momentum, they clearly are not at a disadvantage on the hill and they’re wrongly being billed as the pooch here. Play: Pittsburgh +113 (Risking 2 units).
**FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play, so a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level is by looking at things a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns. Obviously, a walk is not as hurtful as a homerun and a strikeout has less impact than both. FIP accounts for these differences, and presents results on the same scale as ERA. It has been proven to be much more effective than ERA at predicting future performance, and has become a mainstay in sabermetric analysis.
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
