4 Wednesday w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.


HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Atlanta –103 over COLORADO
Juan Nicasio has surrendered seven jacks in 51 innings while Tim Hudson has surrendered eight in 120 innings. Nicasio’s HR/Fly-ball rate is 23% while Hudson’s is 8%. What’s even more interesting than all of that is Nicasio is 4-0 at Coors in five starts with an ERA of 1.64. Those are unsustainable numbers and a correction in his home stats is definitely forthcoming. The kid has a bright future but he does not have the repertoire yet for long term success. He’s a fastball pitcher with two average secondary pitches, the curve and change-up and he rarely uses the change. He’s basically a two-trick pony and that’s not sufficient firepower at this level and we’re seeing signs of that in three of his last six starts in which he was hit hard. Tim Hudson is an elite groundball pitcher and has the second highest GB rate in the league at 58%. His line-drive rate of 16% is one of the lowest in the league, suggesting that he’s avoiding hard hit balls. xERA shows how consistent Hudson has been. With fewer walks and more strikeouts this year, his command has improved, leading to the lower xERA. If you look solely at ERA, it looks like Hudson is doing worse this year than last, but xERA dispels that notion. Hudson’s 2010 ERA was aided by a 25% hit rate and 79% strand rate. The point is that Hudson is dealing it and despite his age (36) there are no signs of a second half regression. Play: Atlanta –103 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Los Angeles +125 over SAN FRANCISCO
3:45 PM EST start. Classic pitching matchup that has a posted total of 5½. Rarely do we see a number like that. In other words, this game is a complete toss-up and that’s why the Dodgers offer up value. There’s really not a lot more to say about this game, as both Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum are two of the best in the business. Kershaw is 10-4 while Lincecum is just 8-7 but both teams are an identical 12-8 with these two starting. Kershaw has a slightly better ERA (2.88 to 2.99). These two pitchers met in San Francisco to open the season this year and the posted total was 6½. The Dodgers won 2-1 and this one has that exact same feel. Win or lose, taking back +125 on a coin toss is the prudent choice. Play: Los Angeles +125 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. METS –105 over St. Louis
The Mets are undervalued here against a sinking Cardinal team that has just five wins in their past 13 games. St. Louis scored one run in Cincinnati on Sunday and two last night. They’re now batting .194 over the past four games. You might see that genius batting the pitcher eighth tonight or even seventh after a few shots of whisky and five beers. In any event, the Cardinals are reeling or should we say they overachieved in the first half and now we’re seeing the real Cards. This is an average club at best with the league’s worst batting coach (a career .233 hitter before he got juiced up) and the league’s worst manager that thinks he’s smarter than everyone else. Kyle McClennan is a Dave Duncan special in that he pitches to contact and relies on his defense to win him games. He has a decent groundball rate but that’s all he has. McClellan has a horrible BB/K ratio of 31/48 in 98 IP. His xERA has been trending the wrong way every month this season and last month it was 4.81. McClellan is beatable and if the Cards pick up a starter before the deadline he’s headed to the pen. Meanwhile, R.A. Dickey has been surging, with six PQS’s (pure quality starts) in his last nine outings, spanning 61.2 IP. Dickey has pitched seven or more innings in seven of those nine starts. He has an outstanding groundball/line-drive/flyball profile of 53%/15%/32%. He has a good strikeout rate and a low walk total of 37 BB in 122 innings. The Mets have scored either five or more, or two or fewer runs in 18 of its last 20 games and last night’s four runs is a flattering number to the Cards because the Mets should have scored twice that. Definite underlay. Play: St. Louis –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

TORONTO –1½ +134 over Seattle
The M’s scored five times last night and for them that’s like scoring 15 runs. The real story is that they scored five times in the first two innings and lost 6-5 in 14 innings. Last night’s loss ran their losing streak to 10 and avoiding 11 is going to be a daunting task. Brandon Morrow had a brilliant second half a year ago and he’s off to a brilliant second half this year. He shut down the Yanks in his last start, limiting them to four hits and one run in 6.2 frames. Morrow does not have the surface stats of an ace (4.37 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), but his skills are elite right across the board. He has 110 K’s in 95 innings and he should blow away these Mariners one by one. The Jays have won Morrow’s last seven starts. Jason Vargas is a finesse lefty who lives on the edge (pitching-wise, that is). Contact, high fly-ball mix is a potentially explosive one and that makes him a big candidate for a big second half regression. Vargas had thrown a whole bunch of good games in the first half including a recent streak in which he allowed just 12 ER in six consecutive starts. However, he’s allowed five runs or more in four of his last 10 starts and his skills do not support his numbers. His xERA over the past month is 5.74 and if he didn’t pitch at Safeco the gap between his ERA and xERA would be much closer. Jason Vargas is a half season wonder. Incidentally, this is the first time Morrow gets to face the team that traded him to Toronto (Morrow to the Blue Jays for reliever Brandon League and minor league outfielder Johermyn Chavez) in what has to be considered one of the worst trades in the past decade. Play: Toronto –1½ +134 (Risking 2 units).
 

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Goodluck Sherwood!! i agree with the braves and blue jays, they both get it done
 

sdf

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Los Angeles +125 over SAN FRANCISCO
3:45 PM EST start. Classic pitching matchup that has a posted total of 5½. Rarely do we see a number like that. In other words, this game is a complete toss-up and that’s why the Dodgers offer up value. There’s really not a lot more to say about this game, as both Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum are two of the best in the business. Kershaw is 10-4 while Lincecum is just 8-7 but both teams are an identical 12-8 with these two starting. Kershaw has a slightly better ERA (2.88 to 2.99). These two pitchers met in San Francisco to open the season this year and the posted total was 6½. The Dodgers won 2-1 and this one has that exact same feel. Win or lose, taking back +125 on a coin toss is the prudent choice. Play: Los Angeles +125 (Risking 2 units).

not sure I like this one. while your reasoning is solid about the starting pitchers being equal, and therefore providing value with LA...the LA offense is terrible and the team is slumping. Not to mention LA is not a very good road team this year, while SF continues to excel at home. Also if it comes down to it late in the game, I trust the SF 'pen more than LA's

I think SF is a higher chalk here simply because of a slight HFA and better offense.

I like the other plays though. Good luck!
 

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not sure I like this one. while your reasoning is solid about the starting pitchers being equal, and therefore providing value with LA...the LA offense is terrible and the team is slumping. Not to mention LA is not a very good road team this year, while SF continues to excel at home. Also if it comes down to it late in the game, I trust the SF 'pen more than LA's

I think SF is a higher chalk here simply because of a slight HFA and better offense.

I like the other plays though. Good luck!

couldnt agree more, the giants offense is semi hott lately and they just do not lose at home
 

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huh?

you got mets over cards in headline but after article you have st. louis over mets. upon reading article, my consesus says its the METS. Just need to clarify.

Thanks!
 

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Thanks MLink and SDF. No doubt the Giants have home edge and bullpen advantage but I like the tag and Kershaw always has a chance to win. Your argument is valid for sure.
 

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you got mets over cards in headline but after article you have st. louis over mets. upon reading article, my consesus says its the METS. Just need to clarify.

Thanks!

Oops, my bad. Thanks Bulit, the play is Mets -105.
 

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couldnt agree more, the giants offense is semi hott lately and they just do not lose at home

On the fence on this one until I saw the lineups. I like Sherwoods side in this one. I'll take the +$$ GL
 

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okay... cuz you put "Play: St. Louis –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2). "
 

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Nice work lieutenant .............looking forward to your Football picks this weekend .............Jeeze no game till 10 pm Friday .
I love the Thursday night games ..........oh well ....
 

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