1 Thursday w/analysis

Search

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
5,201
Tokens
Yesterday 3 1 0 +5.12 Units
Last 30 Days 38 35 1 +17.24 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 137 158 2 -3.20 Units

All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.


HOME TEAM IN CAPS

N.Y. METS –1 +131 over St. Louis
12:10 PM EST. Some of you may not have the option to lay a single run so laying 14 cents is the other option and not a bad one. Tony LaRussa will be hung over and he’ll probably make more idiotic moves than he did last night. If someone documented the way he manages a game from day to day, it would expose just how bad he is. After last night’s LaRussa influenced-loss the Cardinals have dropped nine of their past 14 games and there’s not a pitching coach on the planet that can assist Jake Westbrook. Aside from his occasional miraculous outing, Westbrook has been simply awful. He has a horrible BB/K ratio of 40/57 in 103 innings. Westbrook has five PQS’s (pure quality starts) in 19 attempts this season, which is the worst PQS** (for a better explanation of PQS see bottom of these write-ups) ratio in the league. In two of his last six starts that went at least five innings, Westbrook did not strike out a single batter. He’s batting practice out there. Jonathan Niese is looking like a budding ace again. Over the last month he has an outstanding strikeout rate, good control and a 54% groundball rate. His skills have been trending upwards every month. His velocity on all his pitches is also up since the beginning of the year. Niese is an under the radar pitcher and because of that we get to buy low so buy now. Play: N.Y. Mets –1 +131 (Risking 2 units).


**In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...

1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.

2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.

3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.

4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.

5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.

A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.

Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Messages
12,469
Tokens
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 137 158 2 -3.20 Units


Slow and Steady wins the race in this Summer grind
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
5,201
Tokens
Been a tough year but there's lots of baseball left and I was down over 25 units less than 5 weeks ago.

Thanks Doug. I'm the tortoise.
 
Joined
Nov 1, 2007
Messages
7,833
Tokens
do you use PQS to wager on First 5 lines? This would eliminate the huge variable that bullpens present.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Messages
12,469
Tokens
Keep in mind also .............the stands @ Citi are filled w/ scouts this week ........you got 2 "contract players " @ least in the line up
 

New York Giants Fan!
Joined
Mar 27, 2011
Messages
857
Tokens
BOL Sherwood! After that LA pick yesterday it just felt like you were going 4-0. Keep up the good work
 

New York Giants Fan!
Joined
Mar 27, 2011
Messages
857
Tokens
Btw any thoughts on Sabathia/Shields? Or tonights ATL/COL? I played ATL last night with you was down to the wire was wondering what
people thought of it today
 

New member
Joined
Mar 9, 2010
Messages
5,707
Tokens
Goodluck i like it too

mets with reyes in the lineup are actually a damn good team
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
5,201
Tokens
Btw any thoughts on Sabathia/Shields? Or tonights ATL/COL? I played ATL last night with you was down to the wire was wondering what
people thought of it today

What's interesting about this game is that Sabathia was a -135 at home against Shields very recently and the Yanks won 1-0. Now the game is in TB and CC is a bigger favorite. That suggests the books are looking for TB money and I would not bet TB. I wouldn't bet the Yanks either because of the tag but the strongly suggests a Yanks win.

Best of luck.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,900
Messages
13,439,376
Members
99,341
Latest member
inac
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com