Why you should be playing money line dogs only

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For all beginners and for those that have been laying a price consistently, this is a why you should break that habit ASAP. Laying juice will be a big detrimental to your bankroll and sooner rather than later, you’ll go broke. It’s simply impossible to overcome the vigor over an extended period of time and anyone that tells you anything different is incorrect. So let’s have a look at betting on money-line dogs as oppose to laying a price.

We’ll use a money line favorite of –140 as an example with a take-back of +130. If you’re constantly laying juice, you will lose, that I can guarantee you and here’s why:

Let’s assume you’re wagering on three baseball games a day at an average of -140 per game for $100 each game and let’s assume you do that for an entire season. For six months or 180 days that would be 540 bets per season at an average of –140 per game. Of course, that’s a generalization but most bettors agree that laying –1.40 isn’t so bad when they believe they have a great chance of winning the wager. Some games you’ll lay –120 or even –160 but for argument sake we’ll assume the average lay will be –140. Ok, now let’s assume that you hit 60% of those, an unlikely scenario when you consider that the best teams in baseball play about .600 ball. But let’s assume that you have a great year and hit 60% winners.

Therefore we have 540 ball games with 60% winners would see you go 324-216.



Now we’ll multiply 324 x 100 = 32,400.00 worth of winners.


Then we’ll multiply 216 x –1.40 = 30,240.00 worth of losers.


32,400 (winners)–30,240 (losers)= +2,160.00 and that would be your net profit if you had an incredible year. A more likely scenario is you go somewhere between 45%-55% and when you add those numbers up when laying juice the results are staggering and they’re not in your favor.

Let’s assume now you have a decent year and hit 52% winners with the exact same wagers.


560 games x 52 % winners = 288 winners and 272 losers.



288 x 100 = 28,800.00 in wins


272 x –140 = 38,080.00 in losses, which is an eye opening –10,080.00 for the season.

In other words, if you lay an average of –140 per game and hit 52% winners, you’ll lose more than 10,000.00 for the season.

Now, let’s say you wager strictly on dogs at an average of +130 and you hit that same 52%.
288 losses at –100 = 28,800.00 in losses


272 wins @ +130 = 35,360 in wins for a total profit of 6,560.00 for the season, which is a staggering difference of close to 17,000.00 for the year.

The more juice you lay the more difficult this equation becomes to show a profit and these numbers are not unreasonable at all.


Consider that every team in the majors will win 60 games and lose 60 games and there’s rarely an exception to that. What they do in the other games will ultimately decide whether they have a good or bad record at the end of the year but the point is that it’s more proof that dogs win daily.


So, if you’ve been laying juice it’s time to break that habit. When you play underdogs, you don’t need to hit a high percentage to show a profit and even if you have a bad year, the losses will be limited. A bad year laying juice will destroy your bankroll and until you change, that will not. A good year taking back a tag will carry you for a long time and you’ll show a profit at the end of the season way more times than if you're constantly laying a price.



Good luck
sherwood
 

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While I agree whole heartedly with you analysis and play mainly dogs myself you might have a hard time saying anything to Fat Harry. Can't believe some of the juice he is running. But as an old timer told me when learning a little about gambling, "You never pay juice if ya win."
 

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While I agree whole heartedly with you analysis and play mainly dogs myself you might have a hard time saying anything to Fat Harry. Can't believe some of the juice he is running. But as an old timer told me when learning a little about gambling, "You never pay juice if ya win."

LOL, good quote,
 

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It's also a testament to playing RLs if you cap a game and you really feel the fav is the correct play as in the case with Toronto last night.. You might get hooked sometimes, but in the long run it's a better strategy.
 

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Good write up, i do disagree, but good write up to show the rooks it is way more profitable to bet on the dogs
 
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helluva writeup. I know a few guys on the site have been killing the heavy juice this year, but it's not always that way. I think if you play.....say 75% dogs and pick your spots on -125 dogs or less for 25%, you can offset the juice risk you detailed in your post. I've seen quite a number of friends refuse to wager a favorite of any size, and that makes for a long grind on most seasons.
 

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I agree i almost only play dogs as well... I think the same can also be said with nhl
 

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I think you have to mix it up.... U can't just commit to all doggies or you will be up shits creek. I play about 40% favs but when I lay them I use open parlays about 3/4 the time. This eliminates all the juice, it does make it harder to win because you have to pick another game.
 

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Good write up, i do disagree, but good write up to show the rooks it is way more profitable to bet on the dogs

Could you elaborate why you disagree??

I am learning from this site that even though I have been betting for years I know virtually nothing as to how real sports betting works.
 

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Problem is teams are favorite for a reason, and the number one reason is they are the better team. If you have a good idea on how to cap games and have some good money management, you'll find betting on favorites can be very profitable and 60 % for the year is well within reach. I'll give you an example 2 years ago I decided that everygame Halladay pitches for the Phillies I was gonna put lets say 100 dollars on him, no matter the juice. Well Halladay has me up a good amount of money since that date and I've been laying -200 or more everygame.
 

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Well said Sherwood!

Betting underdog may give you x4 more profit then a favourite, how?

Will talk decimal here..

Fav is 1,60 (-166)
Dog is 2,56 (+156)

When you risk 100, your net profit is +60$. If you're betting on favourite.

But if you bet on dog, your net profit will be +156$. This is x2.6 times more then the profit you made by backing favourite!

Another Example..

Let's say odds for fav are 1,50 (-200).

You're risking 100. If you win, your net profit is 50$.

Or you can bet dog! Odds will be 2,90(+190)
[Or 2,98 (+189 American) if you have an account at betting exchange]

When you risk 100, your profit will be 190$! Favourite gives you 50$, dog gives you 190! This is almost x4!

Of course, favourite may be more likely to win, winning chance may be higher then dog but come on..it's not much as difference between 50 and 190.

Have fun with dogs!
 

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Problem is teams are favorite for a reason, and the number one reason is they are the better team. If you have a good idea on how to cap games and have some good money management, you'll find betting on favorites can be very profitable and 60 % for the year is well within reach.

60 % for the year is well within reach
This just might be the most ridiculous statement I've heard in 35 years.
 

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For everyone's information- Take a look at the RX MLB Contest Forum Standings. Maybe you will reconsider your remarks regarding wagering successfully on favorites and dogs and percentages. The figures in that contest are what they are. Good luck to all.
 

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60 % for the year is well within reach
This just might be the most ridiculous statement I've heard in 35 years.

YTD if you bet on Bos, NYY, PHI every game you'd be hitting above 60%, Not to hard? if you bet against Hou, Cubs every game you'd be above 60%, pretty easy, add a little capping to these games like don't take NY when they play Bos, or lay off on cold streaks, and add a little money management, you'd be well above 60%, and thats not even putting much time into the whole thing.
 

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i like how people have horrible net profits, then go on a good run and immediately want to tell you how to play. if you win 3 out of 6 days a week betting only dogs then youde lose it back on sunday when the dogs keep going 2-13. if youve been doing this 35 years you should know that everyone has good and bad streaks no matter how good your handicapping skills are. going %50 on dogs and still turning profit is cool, but being able to play both dogs and favorites and knowing when to do it is even better.
 
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YTD if you bet on Bos, NYY, PHI every game you'd be hitting above 60%, Not to hard? if you bet against Hou, Cubs every game you'd be above 60%, pretty easy, add a little capping to these games like don't take NY when they play Bos, or lay off on cold streaks, and add a little money management, you'd be well above 60%, and thats not even putting much time into the whole thing.



Philly +11.8 units
Yanks +7.2 units
Boston +6.6 units

Its easy to make money after the fact though, lets say and DO these things before posting it.. Also you need a bankroll to absord a losing streak considering these teams are usually faves.

Pirates are #1
+16.4 units on the season.
 

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60 % for the year is well within reach
This just might be the most ridiculous statement I've heard in 35 years.

Actually %80 is even very recheable..if they bet on 1,15-1,20 (-500, -700) odds, lol.

The problem about betting public is, -thats why they love betting on favs- they only interested in winning, winning percentage. they dont care if its -200 or -170. they just want a winner. so ask any baseball capper. majority of them will say yea i hit %60.

%45-52 is not a sexy winnnig percentage for them..but i like the way they think. i hope they stay same, lol.
 

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