Verlander Tonight...vs. A Pitcher Who Has Lost It, and A Team That Won't Be In The Playoffs

FatHarry · Jul 21, 2011

Tonight Verlander goes for the Tigers. I layed -152 and the value here is so overwhelming that simply put, the price is wrong. Every now and then, the expert linemakers, evidently take a shot and knowingly put up a foolish price. In this spot, Pavano, who is basically a guy who at best might last 5 innings, and the Twins are simply hurting. Their best players are playing hurt, as they simply can't afford to rest their "big guns" if they have any shot of making the playoffs, and competing.

If you are a serious player, you already know this price is absurd. True, Verlander's last outing was below par. But everyone is entitled to a off night. The All Star break simply did not agree with many of the league's best pitchers. Tonight, I love Verlander on the road, vs. this "strange" team, that has many people fooled. So much so, that linemakers know, most suckers will take the price on the Twins, based on Verlander's last performance and the three power hitters the Twins have. Mauer, et al., and Thome (Thome ought to retire as he is so old and out of shape, he can't stretch out to make it to second, on balls hit far enough to do so), simply can't win games by themselves. With a pitcher like Pavano going tonight, this is one to really unbuckle on! Just my opinion.

Ezdoesit · Jul 21, 2011

Only thing that scares me here is Det has a losing record on the road, and as bad as the Twins have been this year, there 2 games above 500 at home. Verlander has been great but one bad game can lead into another. I think Pavano can keep the streaky Det lineup at bay even if only through 5, and Minn is riding a 2 game win streak with alot of confidence into this game. That being said I wouldn't bet against Verlander, just don't think it's as sure of a thing as you may think.

tar_heel_in_sc · Jul 21, 2011

Ezdoesit said:
Only thing that scares me here is Det has a losing record on the road, and as bad as the Twins have been this year, there 2 games above 500 at home. Verlander has been great but one bad game can lead into another. I think Pavano can keep the streaky Det lineup at bay even if only through 5, and Minn is riding a 2 game win streak with alot of confidence into this game. That being said I wouldn't bet against Verlander, just don't think it's as sure of a thing as you may think.

I agree with this. Gun to my head I'd take Det, but that lineup is a bunch of underachieving pussies (except for Cabrera).

FatHarry · Jul 21, 2011

tarheel/ezdoesit- Thats just what the bookmakers want you to think. One thing is for sure, good pitching will beat good hitting. Even if the score is 1-0. Regarding Detroit being "pussies"....Jim Leyland, might be the best manager in MLB. He would never tolerate a guy who does not give 100%. And if Mauer or whoever was hurt, he would NEVER play them. True, Leyland can't play, but considering his opponent tonight, and that Twin bearded manager who looks like he is transiently cofused when making decisions, I will probably wager more on Detroit.

Ezdoesit · Jul 21, 2011

I agree with the bookmaker statement, I think if it was -180 i'd be more comfortable jumping on Verlander, though I think by having this line so low, the bookmakers are trying to get people to jump on Det, rather than a reverse phsycology for cappers it is a ploy to get the public to jump on verlander in one of the few games being played tonight

finite · Jul 21, 2011

Need to see the ump before betting Minn

ReBorn · Jul 21, 2011

i like the twins in this spot,...imo

oldmanTED · Jul 21, 2011

All I know is I had Detroit in Verlander's last outing against the White Sox and he looked like garbage. His line is shown below from that game.

<TABLE class="tablehead mod-player-stats" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead><TD>DATE</TD><TD>OPPONENT</TD><TD>RESULT</TD><TD class=textright title=Innings>IP</TD><TD class=textright title=Hits>H</TD><TD class=textright title=Runs>R</TD><TD class=textright title="Earned Runs">ER</TD><TD class=textright title="Home Runs">HR</TD><TD class=textright title=Walks>BB</TD><TD class=textright title=Strikeouts>SO</TD><TD class=textright title="Ground Balls">GB</TD><TD class=textright title="Fly Balls">FB</TD><TD class=textright title="Total Batters Faced">TBF</TD><TD class=textright title="Number of Pitches">Pit</TD><TD class=textright title=Decision>Dec.</TD><TD class=textright title=Relief>Rel.</TD><TD class=textright title="Earned Run Average">ERA</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>07/15</TD><TD>vs CHW</TD><TD>L 2-8</TD><TD class=textright>6.0</TD><TD class=textright>7</TD><TD class=textright>5</TD><TD class=textright>4</TD><TD class=textright>0</TD><TD class=textright>2</TD><TD class=textright>6</TD><TD class=textright>10</TD><TD class=textright>10</TD><TD class=textright>28</TD><TD class=textright>110</TD><TD class=textright>L(12-5)</TD><TD class=textright>--</TD><TD class=textright>2.29</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

ofred · Jul 21, 2011

For some pitchers, this line would be an average day. Give the guy a break. He had one bad inning against the White Sox, who are very unpredictable, and extremely hard to cap. Over this season the past 2 months he has been the best pitcher in the majors. Against the Twins, he might try to "rebuild" his reputation.

The66 · Jul 21, 2011

as soon as you start talking about it or bring attention to yourself, thats when you lose.

gynecologist · Jul 21, 2011

Pavano has lost it?

Do you pay attention to baseball? Or do you just look at the big names?

Pavano 7 quality starts in his last 8 starts
Regular Season Games through July 20, 2011 Year to Date
DATE OPPONENT RESULT IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB Pit BF GSc Dec. Rel. ERA
Jul 16 vs KC W 4-3 7.0 6 3 3 1 1 3 9 14 97 27 55 - - 4.08
Jul 7 @ CHW W 6-2 7.0 6 2 2 1 2 4 15 7 106 28 59 W(6-6) - 4.10
Jul 2 vs MIL L 8-7 7.2 8 4 3 1 0 4 16 11 105 31 53 - - 4.19
Monthly Totals 21.2 20 9 8 3 3 11 40 32 308 86 -- 1-0 0 sv 3.32
DATE OPPONENT RESULT IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB Pit BF GSc Dec. Rel. ERA
Jun 26 @ MIL L 6-2 6.0 8 5 5 1 1 5 9 12 102 28 40 L(5-6) - 4.24
Jun 21 @ SF W 9-2 8.0 9 2 2 1 0 2 19 11 107 32 58 W(5-5) - 4.05
Jun 15 vs CHW W 4-1 9.0 6 1 1 0 3 5 15 9 96 32 73 W(4-5) - 4.20
Jun 8 @ CLE W 3-2 7.0 7 1 1 1 1 3 14 10 110 29 61 - - 4.54
Jun 3 @ KC W 5-2 9.0 9 2 2 0 1 4 16 15 112 36 64 W(3-5) - 4.83
Monthly Totals 39.0 39 11 11 3 6 19 73 57 527 157 -- 3-1 0 sv 2.54

11 straight games where he has gone at least 6 innings and 10 of those games he went 7 or more...

What has Pavano lost? His team went 6-2 in his last 8 starts...

Explain.

douglas · Jul 21, 2011

on the other side ..........but best of luck Harry .

FatHarry · Jul 21, 2011

gyneologist, et al.- Final Score Detroit 6 (Verlander) Minnesota 2 (Pavano, with his stats that the Yankees knew were phony).
AMEN. P.S. Pavano never really "had it" did he!!!!! The explanation is Pavano, unlike Verlander, can't cosistently beat good teams regularly, certainly not enough to get into The Hall of Fame, like Verlander (-152 tonight). It was like stealing!

billhill999 · Jul 21, 2011

Easy money, and JV wasn't even that sharp.

gynecologist · Jul 21, 2011

lol... ok

billhill999 · Jul 21, 2011

gynecologist said:
lol... ok

His fastball was off 3 mph

FatHarry · Jul 22, 2011

gynecolygist- I had to respond to this. "Do I pay attention to baseball?" I do my best, but I can tell you, MLB bookmakers "pay$" (attention) me!

gynecologist · Jul 22, 2011

God Bless ya Harry..

ofred · Jul 22, 2011

One of those games that looks too obvious, everyone afraid the Twins and Pavano would gut it out. Look at the Twinkies this year. They are not the same team: injuries to key guys, weak starting pitching (weaker than usual) and a bullpen that used to save the starters, but no longer can. Great fundamentals can't save them from a lack of talent. When the Indians' David Huff and Carmona can stuff you as we saw in these week's doubleheader, then Masterson shuts you out for 7, yikes!

douglas · Jul 22, 2011

Nice Shot Fat Man ..........

Verlander Tonight...vs. A Pitcher Who Has Lost It, and A Team That Won't Be In The Playoffs

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